AFL Round 17

[chrisdon16]

Adelaide +28.5
Carlton +61.5
GWS +91.5

$2

 

[bombers21]

Luke Hodge under 98.5 in DT @ $1.75

Very confident here

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Brad Crouch > Jordan Lewis in disposals (1.97)

 

[foxy_dal]

Luke Hodge under 98.5 in DT @ $1.75

Very confident here

Can get under 100.5 DT at $1.87 at Luxbet.

 

[Keystone agony]

Luke Hodge under 98.5 in DT @ $1.75

Very confident here

Why?

 

[Keystone agony]

I reckon Breust most goals @13 is a good bet for tonight considering the likely weather conditions

 

[banana_bus]

For those backing Libba in DT markets, Griffen looks likely to miss the match this week.

If GCS do decide to shut down a mid, Libba will be next.

 

[Keystone agony]

For those backing Libba in DT markets, Griffen looks likely to miss the match this week.

If GCS do decide to shut down a mid, Libba will be next.

GC usually dont tag which helps but I think Griffen benefits his scoring aswell

 

[FootyStar#1]

Is anyone here able to multi dream team h2h's on sportsbet? I'm just wondering if they barred it from me because i won a few largish bets for a couple of weeks now.

 

[bombers21]

Can get under 100.5 DT at $1.87 at Luxbet.

Thanks Dal

 

[bombers21]

Why?

Averaging 96 for the year, last year 89, year before 77. In 2010 averaged 101.

I don't think he's going better this year.

 

[Keystone agony]

Averaging 96 for the year, last year 89, year before 77. In 2010 averaged 101.

I don't think he's going better this year.

Its hard to bet against him though. Hes cleared that in all his last 3 games and 4 of the last 5. 100 is a high line for Hodge based on his career but this year hes spent much more time onball however does that continue with Mitchell getting back to full fitness and lake missing - is he required back?

Will the rain prevent his usualy high mark counts? Yes. For me its hard to score in the rain so most players tonight will go unders IMO

 

[Jay-Z]

Is anyone here able to multi dream team h2h's on sportsbet? I'm just wondering if they barred it from me because i won a few largish bets for a couple of weeks now.

I can't. But I can multi a DT H2H with a SC H2H

 

[Aed0s]

I'm conflicted over tonights match.

Hawthorn were disappointing against NM last week and Adelaide have been playing some good football and defeating Port Adelaide in recent weeks.

With sportsbets lose by 1-20 refund backing Hawthorn looks like good value.

Do I see Adelaide defeating Hawthorn by 21 points and more? Perhaps not, but football isn't always logical or predictable... Hawthorn's loss to NM last week is a striking example of this fact.

Adelaide certainly have the home ground advatange and they've shown that they can harness the power of the crowd to their benefit. How much of an advantage it will be, a few goals but I don't know.

The line bet looks decent as well and so does the 1-39.

Would definitely have to take advantage of the refund offer though.

 

[Willzzz]

Its hard to bet against him though. Hes cleared that in all his last 3 games and 4 of the last 5. 100 is a high line for Hodge based on his career but this year hes spent much more time onball however does that continue with Mitchell getting back to full fitness and lake missing - is he required back?

Will the rain prevent his usualy high mark counts? Yes. For me its hard to score in the rain so most players tonight will go unders IMO

Risky taking on hodge here. Usually responds after criticism and I think with his team under fire & him being captain he will play well tonight.

You're right after the rain lowering the number of marks, and the total DT scores of both teams combined. However, you will find that the distribution is different in wet games, with the in-and-under midfielders scoring as well, if not, better than in dry conditions.

Think hodge might spend more time in the midfield, with Sewell out, although I guess they need him at HB with their missing defenders.

Having said that, if I could, I would get on the Unders but definitely won't go big and would make every effort to get the 100.5 or search for something even better. This will likely be close.

 

[Willzzz]

I'm conflicted over tonights match.

Hawthorn were disappointing against NM last week and Adelaide have been playing some good football and defeating Port Adelaide in recent weeks.

With sportsbets lose by 1-20 refund backing Hawthorn looks like good value.

Do I see Adelaide defeating Hawthorn by 21 points and more? Perhaps not, but football isn't always logical or predictable... Hawthorn's loss to NM last week is a striking example of this fact.

Adelaide certainly have the home ground advatange and they've shown that they can harness the power of the crowd to their benefit. How much of an advantage it will be, a few goals but I don't know.

The line bet looks decent as well and so does the 1-39.

Would definitely have to take advantage of the refund offer though.

I'm on the Hawks tonight. Will be a small-medium play provided I don't add any more to it, got the -4.5 line but the -5.5, -6.5 available now shouldn't affect it too much as I have the line a few points bigger.

 

[stewie griffen]

Thinking taking hawks on sportsbet promo and hedging with Adelaide -20.5 to cover the outlay. Should be profit... Unless my maths is faulty....

Been working the current odds, waiting to see if Adelaide drift out if there are any of the rumoured late withdrawals.

Currently i have the Hawks bet in play and am waiting to fix the crows bets

Hawks 100 at 1.70
Crows -19.5 for 37.08 at 4.00 (centrebet due to not enough funds in sportsbet)
Crows 1-19 for 11.24 at 4.30

Hawks win and its 21.68, Crows win and its pretty much even barring a couple of cents

 

[Butler]

Hodges average this year is slightly lowered due to an injury affected sub.

I have had him all year in my team so have watched him closely and whenever Hawthorn are being challenged he goes straight into the middle. I think Adelaide will put up a fight tonight so could be a big night for him. I would be staying away from that bet.

 

[Spitter9]

sportsbet have a special atm. $4 for betts to kick 3 goals or more. thoughts?

 

[Keystone agony]

sportsbet have a special atm. $4 for betts to kick 3 goals or more. thoughts?

I used iut to get a guaranteed win with luxbet under 2.5 goals.

But if your thinking as a lone bet maybe id think twice.

Against the hawks, in rain, low scoring game im not sure he is that certain to kick 3.

 

[Keystone agony]

Guys my biggest bet for the week especially on player exotics.

7U Barlow over Ward DT @1.85 (Bet365)
Ward should cop the Crowley tag and Barlow seemed to go to another scoreing level without Hill in the side meaning more Wing/Midfield time. Barlow wont get tagged with Fyfe, Mundy running around.

Was waiting all week for a Ward line/market. Finally got one.

Also adding another

2U L.Parker more disposals than Walker @1.80 (TAB)
Parker avg 25 compared to Walkers 22.7 for the year. Parker seems to be getting more and more midfield time especially with Hanneberry out in the last few weeks. Having 21, 30 and 33 in his time out in the last 3 weeks. I also expect Sydney to win and Carlton to not get as much ball against the swans and Walker usually likes the wide open spaces for his run and easy outside ball.

 

[Keystone agony]

Also is my understanding like everyone else's with the SPORTSBET PROMO

Only the 1st bet placed on the Head to Head market of that match will be deemed eligible for the Offer.

Giving me the sense it can be any game

Place a head-to-head bet on any Round 17 match

On any match.

Just thinking about Adelaide -20.5 tonight to make sure of wins but dont want to end up losing both

 

[vho123]

I used iut to get a guaranteed win with luxbet under 2.5 goals.

But if your thinking as a lone bet maybe id think twice.

Against the hawks, in rain, low scoring game im not sure he is that certain to kick 3.

What bets are you placing for this guaranteed win?

Just on the Bulldogs v GCS match - The past three games played at this venue involving these two teams the total match score has been 155, 178 and 97. Given the Bulldogs are a low-scoring team, and conditions should br humid up in Cairns the line of 175.5 for the total match score looks a bit high to me.

3u Total Match Points UNDER 175.5 @ $1.88 (sportsbet)

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Just thinking about Adelaide -20.5 tonight to make sure of wins but dont want to end up losing both

How does Adelaide -20.5 guarantee anything? If Adelaide win by less than 20, then the hawks bet would be refunded, but your Adelaide -20.5 bet loses. Only a Hawks win, or Adelaide by 21 or more wins with those bets.

 

[Sketi]

$100 Hawthorn SU @1.71 (Sportsbet)
$23 Adelaide by 21+ @4.25 (Bet365)
$6 Adelaide 1-20 @4.00 (Bet365)

All this talk on the main board gameday thread has got me wanting hedge more on the Crows 20+, even change my tip to Crows :/