AFL Round 18

[happy punter]

Without looking closer into the numbers but my perception of this Blues team is that seem to lift against the top contenders but play down to the level of the cellar dwellars.

Might be something on that line of +31.5, will have to look into it more.

 

[brjafi]

take your votes for this round at http://puntersrealm.webs.com

just started so it will get better and better.

 

[Donkson]

no thanks

 

[Big Jono]

Liking the look of West Coast and Melbourne at the line early.

 

[BarryG]

I might be missing something but Melbourne $2.05 against the Lions looks good. Unless of course i didnt read the article where Black is back, Brown fully repaired, and Vossy is pulling on the jumper as captain coach.

I could be wrong tho.

 

[The Big Woofer]

I might be missing something but Melbourne $2.05 against the Lions looks good. Unless of course i didnt read the article where Black is back, Brown fully repaired, and Vossy is pulling on the jumper as captain coach.

I could be wrong tho.

I'm with you, Melbourne $2.15 is the bet that stands out to me. I know they don't travel great but bris are a wreck & also bris tend to have problems with smaller agile forward lines which melb wll have......Melb will be much faster, i don't even think the bris players are very interested anymore this year.

 

[KardiniaPark]

If melbourne play like last week they could actually kick a record score against that rabble. How a team goes 1-12 and ends up favourite has me buggered.

 

[isamonster]

The showdown result yesterday shows that when it comes to derbies = throw the form book out the window

Careful with the Dockers, not a cert by any means

I agree there for sure. Dockers have a swag of injuries, along with the pav and sandilands looking very tired. I reckon the eagles are in with a real show here and at 3.60 for 1-39 i think is very enticing indeed!

 

[ClarkeM]

Got on a multi with Melbourne and West Coast plus few more. Those two are the hard ones though.

 

[Rubins]

im very familiar with the 'value' system approach to betting, and i think its a load of shit........
i subscribe to the theory that no such system exists...

loltypo

You talk about this as though its a matter of opinion.
Its not - betting/odds is simple maths.

Finding 'value' just means betting on things that you think are more likely to happen than the odds reflect. Obviously these are the best bets to put on regardless of whether its an underdog or favourite.

If you take 'bad' odds on a team just because you think they'll probably win then you are a mug punter

 

[soho]

its not simple maths, because you are asigning a speculative percentage value to a sides chances of winning...

"betting on things that you think are more likely to happen... you see, thats where it all breaks down... thinking is arbitrary and not a truth maker... because you 'think' carlton are a 1 in 4 shot at beating the pies on saturday, doesnt make them a 1 in 4 shot...

you're not flipping a coin, you're gambling on football matches, so laws of probability are practically useless, imo...

but like i said, i hope you have the secret, i hope you have the golden system and can print money and dont need a job...

 

[Rubins]

"betting on things that you think are more likely to happen... you see, thats where it all breaks down... thinking is arbitrary and not a truth maker... because you 'think' carlton are a 1 in 4 shot at beating the pies on saturday, doesnt make them a 1 in 4 shot...

you're not flipping a coin, you're gambling on football matches, so laws of probability are practically useless, imo...

You're missing the point...no one suggested they had the magic answer to winning - just that finding odds that you believe are overs (i.e 'value') is a smart way to bet. Obviously no-one knows what will happen...thats why its called betting.

 

[Lensen]

its not simple maths, because you are asigning a speculative percentage value to a sides chances of winning...

"betting on things that you think are more likely to happen... you see, thats where it all breaks down... thinking is arbitrary and not a truth maker... because you 'think' carlton are a 1 in 4 shot at beating the pies on saturday, doesnt make them a 1 in 4 shot...

you're not flipping a coin, you're gambling on football matches, so laws of probability are practically useless, imo...

but like i said, i hope you have the secret, i hope you have the golden system and can print money and dont need a job...

Of course the value is subjective, that's the difference between successful and unsuccessful punters. betting for value is not the system that wins, it's entirely dependent on the judgment.

In effect, though, what you're doing IS value Punting. You're betting on propositions you think will definitely happen (i.e. $1.00 chances) at $1.10+. I'd contest your judgments individually but if its working then obviously stick with it... Just don't denigrate value punting as a poor option and insult us by implying it's a "magical" money making system when you're effectively doing the same thing albeit at the shallow end.

I don't know how long you've been punting and I'm no old timer, but one thing you'll learn is that enormous upsets happen. look at those who you hear about weekly who lose big $ on $1.0x "certainties" every week.

 

[GoodesStuff]

its not simple maths, because you are asigning a speculative percentage value to a sides chances of winning...

"betting on things that you think are more likely to happen... you see, thats where it all breaks down... thinking is arbitrary and not a truth maker... because you 'think' carlton are a 1 in 4 shot at beating the pies on saturday, doesnt make them a 1 in 4 shot...

Yes it is only an opinion, so of course the bookies odds is just an opinion also. That's why it is important to frame your own markets, and if they are right you should see a profit in the long term

 

[BarryG]

I just bet on teams I think will win. If it gets up it was great value, if it loses it was terrible.

 

[Lensen]

Getting back on topic.

I really like Essendon at the big odds this week. Saints haven't clicked with Riewoldt back just yet and the Bombers will have nothing to lose - which means they'll probably unleash the running game that's been effective against the Saints recently. They have a good record against the Saints and are well overs IMO. Essendon $10 @ $5.75

I also think the Tigers have put the cue in the rack for the year and Adelaide will pull out all the stops to make up for last week and keep their slim finals hopes alive. $20 on Adelaide @ $1.65

I also think North are a funny chance vs the Dogs. I reckon the game earlier in the year stung the club and they'll come out breathing fire. They have an ok recent record against them (i.e. the last 3-4 years) too. Worth a half unit flutter at big odds I reckon. $10 on NM @ $5.32

 

[RequiemBlade]

Getting back on topic.

I really like Essendon at the big odds this week. Saints haven't clicked with Riewoldt back just yet and the Bombers will have nothing to lose - which means they'll probably unleash the running game that's been effective against the Saints recently. They have a good record against the Saints and are well overs IMO. Essendon $10 @ $5.75

I also think the Tigers have put the cue in the rack for the year and Adelaide will pull out all the stops to make up for last week and keep their slim finals hopes alive. $20 on Adelaide @ $1.65

I also think North are a funny chance vs the Dogs. I reckon the game earlier in the year stung the club and they'll come out breathing fire. They have an ok recent record against them (i.e. the last 3-4 years) too. Worth a half unit flutter at big odds I reckon. $10 on NM @ $5.32

Just on that Essendon game Lenny, Watson isn't 100% certain and Winderlich is out for 1-2 with a broken hand (or wrist). Not sure how much this influences your market but at $5.75 they do seem like good value.

 

[asanque]

Getting back on topic.

I really like Essendon at the big odds this week. Saints haven't clicked with Riewoldt back just yet and the Bombers will have nothing to lose - which means they'll probably unleash the running game that's been effective against the Saints recently. They have a good record against the Saints and are well overs IMO. Essendon $10 @ $5.75

I also think the Tigers have put the cue in the rack for the year and Adelaide will pull out all the stops to make up for last week and keep their slim finals hopes alive. $20 on Adelaide @ $1.65

I also think North are a funny chance vs the Dogs. I reckon the game earlier in the year stung the club and they'll come out breathing fire. They have an ok recent record against them (i.e. the last 3-4 years) too. Worth a half unit flutter at big odds I reckon. $10 on NM @ $5.32

Good luck on your bets

Subject to seeing the teams, I will likely take the Saints and the Dogs at the line.

The Saints are pretty much full strength.
They play the Dons who beat them in their last 2 games.
I watched each of those games and felt that the Dons were lucky to win both.
In particular, Hille was a matchwinner in their last match and will be missing.
Watson is a bit proppy (although BOG last week) and Winderlich will also be a big loss.

For the other match:

The Dogs also thumped the Roos earlier this year.
Given the Roos have big injury concerns and lost to the Dons in a heartbreaker last week, I can't see them beating a Dogs outfit which thumped Freo.

 

[dUkezz]

all in life savings on brisbane stkilda double

 

[stretcharmstrong]

all in life savings on brisbane stkilda double

 

[asanque]

all in life savings on brisbane stkilda double

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=725304&highlight=hogan

Sound like Doug

 

[dUkezz]

haha i wasnt serius asanque, lol but yeh wouldnt mind seeing brisbane at around 1.60+

 

[asanque]

haha i wasnt serius asanque, lol but yeh wouldnt mind seeing brisbane at around 1.60+

I don't mind the St Kilda bet.
Always need to be careful with a team that has lost its last 7 though.

I don't mind the bet as such but Dees looked pretty good last week.

 

[clivewaterhousen]

west coast actually look good if mundy doesnt play

 

[clivewaterhousen]

also kepler for the ross glendinning