AFL Round 5

[Gets!]

here are the odds from Sportingbet.


Western Bulldogs 1.12
Adelaide 6.25




Sydney 1.17
West Coast 5.00



Melbourne 3.65
Brisbane 1.28




Port Adelaide 3.50
St Kilda 1.30



Collingwood 1.33
Essendon 3.30



Hawthorn 1.35
North Melbourne 3.20



Fremantle 1.05
Richmond 10.00



Carlton 4.50
Geelong 1.20

---------------------------

After a good round 4 I am probably only going to have the one multi on this weekend...

BULLDOGS over Adelaide
SYDNEY over West Coast
ST KILDA over Port Adelaide
GEELONG over Carlton

paying about $2.04, might put $300 on it.

 

[RoosterLad]

Freo 1.05, they are 1.01 on some places unless it has changed already.

 

[Toriola]

Wow, centrebet have the line for the Adelaide - Western Bulldgs match at 39.5 points. Dogs looked tired last week and are coming off another 6 day break. Really like Adelaide at the line here.

 

[mattys123]

ANZAC day medal market also on Centrebet now (don't know if it's open anywhere else yet).

Notables for me;

Pies;

Swan - 7.00
Didak -12.00
Shaw - 12.00
Medhurst - 21.00
Thomas - 21.00
Wellingham - 26.00

Dons;

Watson - 12.00
Stanton - 15.00
Ryder - 26.00
Welsh - 26.00
Winderlich - 26.00

Forecast for some showers, windy and max of 18, brings the likes of Thomas, Medhurst, Shaw, Watson and Stanton into my favourites.

I'll back Thomas and Shaw early and either Medhurst or Davis on the morning of the match.

 

[BarryG]

After a good round 4 I am probably only going to have the one multi on this weekend...

BULLDOGS over Adelaide
SYDNEY over West Coast
ST KILDA over Port Adelaide
GEELONG over Carlton

paying about $2.04, might put $300 on it.

I was thinking the exact same thing but also adding Brisbane to beat Melbourne as well.

 

[Octavia]

in theory looks like a good multi
hopefully no upsets in there and your set
goodluck

 

[pacemaker]

I have already gotten on Bulldogs, Sydney, Brisbane and Hawthorn (at tassy they are usually strong) I think it was $2.17 only put $70 on it though.

I like the Adelaide, Richmond and WCE lines

 

[Whispers]

Looks like an easy week with the biggest odds for a favourite for the round at $1.35!

I reckon on Sunday (Coll vs Esse) you could put the total score being under the total given as a good bet. Usually a close match (excluding 08), bad weather conditions... could be a good bet.

Also, I reckon Pavlich at $13 for the Coleman could be one for the long term investments. Is sitting second behind Brown (19) on 15 goals at the moment and I think Harvey will be reluctant to move Pav from the forward line instead of throwing him around the ground to fill in spots. Has kicked a couple of bags against the two top teams in the comp in the past two weeks.

It seems to be a pretty good bet.

 

[turbo182]

ANZAC day medal market also on Centrebet now (don't know if it's open anywhere else yet).

Notables for me;

Pies;

Swan - 7.00
Didak -12.00
Shaw - 12.00
Medhurst - 21.00
Thomas - 21.00
Wellingham - 26.00

Dons;

Watson - 12.00
Stanton - 15.00
Ryder - 26.00
Welsh - 26.00
Winderlich - 26.00

Forecast for some showers, windy and max of 18, brings the likes of Thomas, Medhurst, Shaw, Watson and Stanton into my favourites.

I'll back Thomas and Shaw early and either Medhurst or Davis on the morning of the match.

ball - wet conditons - tackles and handballs and crap kicks out of packs...got him written all over it!

Freo over 60 anyone? Richmond seem to run out of legs every week - on subiaco this is going to destroy them IMO.

Chuckin essendon in amulti is a good way to get some risky value.

 

[Thursfieldness]

Also, I reckon Pavlich at $13 for the Coleman could be one for the long term investments. Is sitting second behind Brown (19) on 15 goals at the moment and I think Harvey will be reluctant to move Pav from the forward line instead of throwing him around the ground to fill in spots. Has kicked a couple of bags against the two top teams in the comp in the past two weeks.

It seems to be a pretty good bet.

He's 15.00 at sportingbet, where I've a 100 free bet. This 100.00 can only be used on one bet between 1 and 12 legs.

I'll either take Pavlich or multi 3-5 afl games this week. Also, Richmond and Adelaide might be value at the lines given the head to head odds.

 

[Cuzz09]

Wow, centrebet have the line for the Adelaide - Western Bulldgs match at 39.5 points. Dogs looked tired last week and are coming off another 6 day break. Really like Adelaide at the line here.

That is good.

Adelaide will be pretty fired up to at least show something this week.

Does anybody know the line for Sydney Vs West Coast?? I can see it being a bit similar.

I think Port could trouble the Saints, may not win but Im not touching that game.

My multi would be something like:

Adelaide line.
West Coast line (if the line is similar to Adelaide)
Brisbane Win.
Collingwood under 39.5

$50 on.

 

[Cuzz09]

W.Bulldogs under 39.5
Sydney 20-39
Brisbane under 39.5
Collingwood under 39.5
Hawthorn 20-39
Fremantle 40-59
Geelong under 39.5

what would the odds be for this??

Too early to tell?

 

[Mr Crow!]

Freo are $1.02 Hd2Hd vs. Richmond at TAB ... has this got to be a RECORD short odds for FREO, ever???

 

[Dr Awkward]

Not much value this week, certainly not like last week.

Early thoughts are: Melbourne to cover the line if it is a big enough line.
West Coast to cover the line if they are given a big head start as well.
St Kilda seem to be overs every week to me, but probably won't bet on that game I don't like getting involved with Port.

Would not touch Adelaide, Richmond, or Hawthorn in any of their respective games.

 

[mattys123]

I think Essendon and WCE at their respective lines (20 Ess) (30 WCE) may be good bets this week, as both have history of close matches against their opponents, especially Syd and WCE.

I love Hawthorn's odds with Buddy back in Tassie, agains the bottom 4 North, and may even look at them with a handicap.

Will back the pies straight out, confident we will win, even if it isn't by much, but would avoid Collingwood with a handicap, as ANZAC day matches are a little different to most H & A matches.

Not a great betting week, maybe multi up 3-4 games you love and go big.

Upset of the week anyone? (we are due for a doosy).

 

[Cuzz09]

Upset of the week anyone? (we are due for a doosy).

Port to beat St.Kilda.

Leaving Brisbane the last remaining undefeated team.

 

[2121]

Port to beat St.Kilda.

Leaving Brisbane the last remaining undefeated team.

I'll either have money on port at the line or under 39.5 a good bet seeing as port were practically on the plane in the second halve of there game agaisnt geelong whilst saints were forced to run and fight it out to the last minute agaisnt freo and the bigger ammi staduim may play into affect for port.

 

[The Big Woofer]

I reckon Essendon $3.30 has a decent chance to win on Sunday. They won last year off an awful loss to NM so they can turn their form around quickly & will get some good players back....

 

[mattys123]

I reckon Essendon $3.30 has a decent chance to win on Sunday. They won last year off an awful loss to NM so they can turn their form around quickly & will get some good players back....

If it stays dry, they have a slight chance.

If it rains, load up on the pies, we have some of the best wet weather players in the game.

(Forecast rain).

 

[mike262]

Upset of the week anyone? (we are due for a doosy).

WCE to beat Sydney

NicNat and Cox to rape seaby and mumford

 

[Mr Crow!]

WCE to beat Sydney

NicNat and Cox to rape seaby and mumford

Isn't that against the rules? Surely at least it's conduct unbecoming. How many weeks will they get for that?

 

[soho]

If it stays dry, they have a slight chance.

If it rains, load up on the pies, we have some of the best wet weather players in the game.

(Forecast rain).

it was raining last year, remember...?

 

[cynical]

very ordinary week

my bets will probably be

2u on the hawks @1.35 get a few players back this week and usually do well in tassie

2u on geelong @ 1.20 geelong are almost at full strength now, carlton have a mediocre forward line id expect geelong to win

 

[mattys123]

it was raining last year, remember...?

It "spat" rain in the last 5 minutes, and this only made the ground a little slippery, it wasn't a true indication of wet weather.

Collingwood's best performance last year was against Port at the G in almost torrential rain, where they turned a 4 goal deficit into a 9 goal win.

Add Luke Ball to the list, along with Thomas, Medhurst, Shaw, Swan and Maxwell who are wet weather experts, and if it "rains" for real, the pies win easily.

(although I don't expect much rain).

 

[The Big Woofer]

It "spat" rain in the last 5 minutes, and this only made the ground a little slippery, it wasn't a true indication of wet weather.

Collingwood's best performance last year was against Port at the G in almost torrential rain, where they turned a 4 goal deficit into a 9 goal win.

Add Luke Ball to the list, along with Thomas, Medhurst, Shaw, Swan and Maxwell who are wet weather experts, and if it "rains" for real, the pies win easily.

(although I don't expect much rain).

I agree I think Ess would prefer it dry so they can use their speed, but i'm not totally sold on Coll being a good wet weather team, they got smashed by geelong in the final & the last qtr on ANZAC Day was a bit wet.....

I remember the port game you speak of as i backed Coll but i reckon it was more windy than wet--plus port weren't interested after HT.....not saying you're wrong just saying i don't reckon its a given coll are much better in the wet.