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AFL Round 7

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soho said:
richmond will not beat fremantle

freo are legit

centrebet are offering freo at $1.73 after 2pm today, i'll be down for $35k's worth

bookmark
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Why would you bother putting a mere 35K on Freo when you already have a million invested on them in a multi :rolleyes::eek:

soho said:
1,000 units on geelong into freo into bris into adel - $3.70ish

done

when does black caviar run next? and syt in euro?

double down
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Geelong v North Melbourne Geelong Quarter Time Line W 1.92 -11.5
Richmond v Fremantle Richmond Pick Your Own Line W 1.20 +38.5
Gold Coast v Brisbane Brisbane Lions Quarter Time Line W 1.85 -12.5
Melbourne v Adelaide Melbourne Pick Your Own Line W 1.20 +22.5
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn Port Adelaide Pick Your Own Line W 1.42 +45.5
@ 7.26

What do you guys think of this multi?
 

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Essendon to outscore Brisbane @ $2.75. Don't think Brisbane have the forward line to kick a big score TBH.

Geelong > Hawthorn $1.64
Geelong > Brisbane $2.15
Carlton > Fremantle $2.00
Carlton > Hawks $2.75
Carlton > Brisbane $4.30!
Carlton > Gold Coast $1.34

Heaps of value IMO
 

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The only issue with that bet is that West Coast are far better defensively than Port but a bet paying 1.98 is never completely trouble free.

Interestingly, the average score this year has been about 92 points. The average score at Etihad has been 100.3 and the average score at AAMI has been 88.9.

Also, when a team wins at Etihad, they average 131.9, when a team wins at AAMI they average 98.7 (the highest being West Coast 116).

...Yeah, I've talked myself into this bet. Seems great value.
 
Jimmy_the_Gent said:
The only issue with that bet is that West Coast are far better defensively than Port but a bet paying 1.98 is never completely trouble free.

Interestingly, the average score this year has been about 92 points. The average score at Etihad has been 100.3 and the average score at AAMI has been 88.9.

Also, when a team wins at Etihad, they average 131.9, when a team wins at AAMI they average 98.7 (the highest being West Coast 116).

...Yeah, I've talked myself into this bet. Seems great value.
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you get alot more games at Etihad though so the average is more accurate for there, that Aami average will drop dramatically once Winter starts aswell.
 
twarby said:
you get alot more games at Etihad though so the average is more accurate for there, that Aami average will drop dramatically once Winter starts aswell.
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Yep.

If I wasn't lazy I'd do the maths for 2010 and I'm sure it would reflect something like that.

Also, I know it seems like a stupid question but I meant to ask you if teams scoring less in the wet/rain is a stone cold fact and if it's a significant drop?

Again, I know it seems silly to ask but a lot of common knowledge stats are false (like how people thought a bye would be beneficial and how people think coming back from Perth causes teams huge problems).

I get the impression you consider the weather a lot.
 
DT_35 said:
Essendon to outscore Brisbane @ $2.75. Don't think Brisbane have the forward line to kick a big score TBH.

Geelong > Hawthorn $1.64
Geelong > Brisbane $2.15
Carlton > Fremantle $2.00
Carlton > Hawks $2.75
Carlton > Brisbane $4.30!
Carlton > Gold Coast $1.34

Heaps of value IMO
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Good Value
Certainty
Not sure if i would play
 
adii_7 said:
with the bye.. and us already having a firm hold on our season.. i highly doubt there will be any coming back to earth.
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WC beat you by 32 last year and have won 6 of your last 8 games.

Brisbane beat you last year by 27, you haven't beaten them at the Gabba for over 5 years.

And of course Richmond, you tend to crumble against them fairly often as well.


Hird has you up at the moment playing the same style of football that Knights had you doing last year, a few serious losses and your back to being middle of the road.
 

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DT_35 said:
I'm very concerned about Ports lack of defense though, I mean, they allowed GC to kick 104 points against them....at AAMI Stadium!
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Yeah, I looked at that before. If you take out the 66 points they held Adelaide to, you see a team conceding 126 points per game. That's a good 1.3 standard deviations away from the average*

*Or something. Do your own stats.
 
yeah they also held GC to 6 goals until falling asleep in true Port style.

Hawks have lost their last 4 in Adelaide. Port coming off 2 of their worst losses in their history.

But yes as Jimmy stated no $1.98 bet is going to be trouble free!
 
DT_35 said:
Essendon to outscore Brisbane @ $2.75. Don't think Brisbane have the forward line to kick a big score TBH.

Geelong > Hawthorn $1.64
Geelong > Brisbane $2.15
Carlton > Fremantle $2.00
Carlton > Hawks $2.75
Carlton > Brisbane $4.30!
Carlton > Gold Coast $1.34

Heaps of value IMO
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Some good bets there :thumbsu:

I also think there is some value with West Coast with this market, don't think they will beat Essendon but can see it being a high scoring game with both teams scoring 100+
$2.20 vs Western Bulldogs
$1.96 vs Sydney
$2.10 vs Melbourne
$1.88 vs Adelaide
$2.35 vs Richmond
$1.72 vs Gold Coast
$1.92 vs Port Adelaide
 
Taking Hartlett over Shiels in DT points @ 1.75 sportingbet

Hartlett is in form and has DT history, Shiels had a flying start to the year, but had died off a bit, and prior to this year only averaged 55.
 

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AFL Round 7

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