Aiden Obrien Spring Horses Thread

[boom crash opera]

Use this thread to talk all things about the great man and his horses. Personally i think he will win the Mel cup this year whether its with septimus or another horse but i think he really wants it and now he knows what he needs.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Duke of Marmalade in the cox plate, bloody class horse this.
another is Henrythenavigator , i was able to see it run live at Glorious Goodwood the other week, back him if it comes over.

[YOUTUBE]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/XSk26ZLksKw&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/XSk26ZLksKw&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/YOUTUBE]

sorry abt the french commentry

 

[sethlad]

Serious horses both of them....would truly give us a chance to measure WH.

Sadly the fact you can get $35 both of them probably gives an idea as to the chances of them getting here.

seth

 

[sethlad]

Septimus will be fave in the Lonsdale Cup (3200m) at York on Wednesday night.
He won this race last year.

Washington Irving ran 2nd in Ireland last Sunday behind two other MC entries,Mores Wells & Dermott Weld's Profound Beauty

seth

 

[sethlad]

Real doubt over Aiden's horses making the trip due to quarantine dramas.
Not looking good

seth

 

[boom crash opera]

Real doubt over Aiden's horses making the trip due to quarantine dramas.
Not looking good

seth

Why does the australians have such harsh quarintine restrictions compared to other countries? Is it because they are scared of another EI outbreak or what. Real pity if Obriens horses dont make the trip as the public should be teated to the best staying horses in the best staying race...i dont understand why he does not bring them over earlier and get all the quarentine stuff out of the way?

 

[Clean Heels]

Gee... I was going to smash septimus a few weeks back, now looks unlikely, im a little relieved..

This makes Efficient near unbeatable.

 

[sethlad]

Not all doom & gloom as Aiden has left 6 horses in the great race after todays noms

DK Weld,Godolphin & Luca Cumani are also there,18 internationals in all

seth

 

[sethlad]

Not sure what to make of it but Sportingbet claim they have taken a bet of $65K on Septimus @ $16

No mention of where this punter lives but Sbet love this kind of press coverage...remember the supposed regular $1million Lonhro punter?


www.racenet.com.au/news/381/Sportingbet_take_big_wager_on_Septimus_in_Melbourne_Cup.asp

seth

 

[sethlad]

Septimus won the Irish St Leger last night by 13 lengths on a wet track.
Sat behind the stablemate & quickened at 500 to win in a canter
Not sure what was chasing him apart from Yellowstone who was meant to be coming but got beaten 50 lengths.
Now fave at around $7

Honolulu won the Doncaster Cup easily & is owned by the same guy
Alessandro Volta was well beaten in the English St Leger

These are the likely visitors from Ballydoyle if the quarantine can be sorted

seth

 

[Exhale You]

You're a star, Seth.

Thanks for all the updates and information you bring us, it makes for a far more interesting forum than it otherwise would be.

 

[sethlad]

I know the internationals can be hit or miss but I love the fact that they make the trip down here.
Lets face it,2nd & 3rd last year & the quinella in 2006,they seem to be getting the hang of it...finally

Everyone has their opinion on the o/s raiders but IMO its a 10x better race for their participation.

seth

 

[boom crash opera]

anyone got a video of septimus run?

 

[stressless]

I know the internationals can be hit or miss but I love the fact that they make the trip down here.
Lets face it,2nd & 3rd last year & the quinella in 2006,they seem to be getting the hang of it...finally

Everyone has their opinion on the o/s raiders but IMO its a 10x better race for their participation.

seth

was told 100% coming with septimus, thank you very much had early doubles and quinellas

 

[sethlad]

was told 100% coming with septimus, thank you very much had early doubles and quinellas

When were you told this?
Hope your mail is good

seth

 

[Dingster]

Today's article suggests that any weight penalty would have a huge bearing on the decision.

Septimus was installed as the Melbourne Cup favourite with Sportsbet after he won his first group 1 race by a staggering 13 lengths at the Curragh on Saturday. But two crucial factors could stop him coming to Melbourne.

His trainer, Aidan O'Brien, may be swayed to stay at home if he is given a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup, while quarantine issues are yet to be resolved, but it is expected a ruling concerning protocols at Ballydoyle will be finalised today.

Most betting shops in Australia shortened Septimus into favouritism at about $6.50, just shading last year's Cup winner Efficient for the big race at Flemington on November 4.

Carpenter will today announce if the St Leger win means that Septimus will have to carry more than his allotted 58.5 kilograms.

Carpenter yesterday pointed out that Septimus beat New Zealand — a Killarney maiden winner at his previous start. The third horse, Red Moloney, had been beaten in a vastly inferior race before Saturday.

Efficient's owner Lloyd Williams warned six weeks ago that Septimus was the horse to beat in the Melbourne Cup and he has not changed his tune.

"He's got to travel, of course," Williams said last night. "But if he travels and Aidan produces him on Melbourne Cup day in the the same condition he did yesterday, then why wouldn't he win. And win easily."

http://www.theage.com.au/news/horse-racing/septimus-bolts-to-favourite/2008/09/14/1221330653239.html

 

[sethlad]

Cup weights are guided by history,more than any other race
1st Group 1 win & already has 58.5....no way he'll give him a penalty.
Honolulu will get one though IMO

seth

 

[sethlad]

No penalty

Well despite the calls from DK Weld that Septimus should get 3 kilos,sanity prevails & he avoids a penalty.
Honolulu gets 1 kg for his Doncaster Cup win up to 54.5kg

Its scary to think that the fate of both horses depends on Aust Govt health inspectors

seth

 

[boom crash opera]

Ballydoyle has been cleared by aus gov so it now looks as if septimus will be running in the melbourne cup.

 

[Bambino]

I love the internationals coming over. I remember I got on Eye Popper each way a few years back in the caufield cup wher he was third by a head or so to Railings. Was great some seeing some big interntational roughie come who noone else in the pub was on except me and my mate. Everyone was looking at us thinking your bloody lucky or bloody geniuses. Too bad he came third

 

[sethlad]

Its started already

Hot on the heels of Dermotts 3kg plea,enter Singo.
www.racenet.com.au/news/383/Singo_threatens_Melbourne_Cup_boycott_with_Tuesday_Joy.asp

I had Gai in the sweep for which local would bleat first....does this count?
This is tame compared to her Oscar Schindler from 10 yrs ago

Gotta love this time of year

seth

 

[Dingster]

That's a fair whine!

The locals are definitely running scared. How much of it is hot air? Another opinion...

Betchoice analyst declares Septimus 'no hope' in Melbourne Cup
Brad Waters
Wednesday, 17 September 2008

Respected Betchoice racing analyst Mark Morrissey has declared that Irish St Leger winner Septimus has ‘no hope’ of winning the Emirates Melbourne Cup.

Septimus is rated as one of Europe’s best stayers and is currently a $6 favourite for the Melbourne Cup but his recent thirteen-length win hasn’t impressed Morrissey.

“Yes he won by 13 lengths but what did he beat, he beat horses straight out of maiden class, I think the handicapper got it exactly right by not giving him a penalty,” he said.

“The punters were impressed and keep backing him and have backed him into $6 but we’ll keep him there for the time being.

“We do hold a decent amount on him but I’m not concerned about him winning”.

Morrissey bases his thoughts on Septimus’ 58.5kg handicap which he describes as “excessive”.

“He’s in absolutely terribly with his weight, plenty of horses that have far superior records than him have come over and been beaten comfortably with weights in that range,” Morrissey said.

“Oscar Schindler, Drum Taps, Vinnie Roe, Yeats, they’ve all tried and failed with similar weights with much better credentials than Septimus.

“History says that the second and third stringers that race on the pace can be the ones that get into the finish at value prices.

“Central Park and Give the Slip nearly stole the Melbourne Cup, they had no weight and got up close to the pace and fought on very strongly and they weren’t even considered to be anywhere near good enough”.

http://www.racenet.com.au/news/383/...lares_Septimus_'no_hope'_in_Melbourne_Cup.asp

 

[sethlad]

Betchoice analyst declares Septimus 'no hope' in Melbourne Cup
Brad Waters
Wednesday, 17 September 2008
Respected Betchoice racing analyst Mark Morrissey has declared that Irish St Leger winner Septimus has ‘no hope’ of winning the Emirates Melbourne Cup.
“Yes he won by 13 lengths but what did he beat, he beat horses straight out of maiden class,
I think the handicapper got it exactly right by not giving him a penalty,” he said.

He was never getting a penalty



“The punters were impressed and keep backing him and have backed him into $6 but we’ll keep him there for the time being.

If he cant win,very brave of Mark to give $6 all-in...Wow



“We do hold a decent amount on him but I’m not concerned about him winning”.
Morrissey bases his thoughts on Septimus’ 58.5kg handicap which he describes as “excessive”.
“He’s in absolutely terribly with his weight, plenty of horses that have far superior records than him have come over
and been beaten comfortably with weights in that range,” Morrissey said.

I love this argument.Completely different horses trained by different trainers from years ago had better UK form
& couldnt win with that weight so obviously he cant win.
Aiden has brought 2 horses & run 1 placing.
Wasnt even here when Yeats ran,declared Mahler wasnt the right horse & he still ran 3rd.
Its a big weight but time will tell

seth

 

[boom crash opera]

for anyone who has not seen its last run
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_XF2phKanM

 

[sethlad]

As all 3 of Aiden's are in quarantine,it appears only a flood in France will see Septimus go to the Arc.

Luca's Bauer & Mad Rush are already here along with Godolphin's All The Good.
No update on Weld's Profound Beauty although is reportedly in quarantine.

Current markets have the above horses at these approx prices:

Septimus $7
Mad Rush $21
Honolulu,P Beauty $26
ATG,Bauer $41

For anyone who has a www.SportsAcumen.com account & likes one of these,
they have a Double Odds On Euro horses promotion until 11.59 Monday night.

Septimus $13
Mad Rush $41
Honolulu $51
ATG,Bauer,P Beauty $61

Considering 3 of them are already here & Aidens look likely,I doubt you'll see these prices again,especially Septimus & Mad Rush

seth