Are we there yet?

[youmewe]

It's 173 days since the mighty ocean liner FreoFC ran aground on the feared Hawthorn reef.

We've been reassured that the damage sustained by this regular calamitous event is only cosmetic. The Skipper and Gilligan are still at the helm (as they should be), the list has remained virtually intact (sans McPharlin, plus Bennell), the game plan has been tweaked (?). It's bon voyage and full steam ahead.

Putting aside your purple tinted glasses, how confident are you that we will finally hold up the premiership cup in 2016? Yes we finished top of the table in 2015, but we didn't reach the GF. Yes we ground out a lot of ugly (but very precious) wins, but we lacked the class to go all the way. Yes we have some very talented youngsters on our list, but so do most of our nearest rivals.

What to make of that 2015 season? A season of two halves to be sure.

During the first half of the season we were:
10-1, pts for 969, pts against 701, percentage 138.2.
We played 6 games against eventual finalists and were:
5-1, pts for 539, pts against 425, percentage 126.8.

During the second half of the season we were:
7-4, pts for 888, pts against 863, percentage 102.9.
We played 4 games against eventual finalists and were:
1-3, pts for 288, pts against 391, percentage 73.7.

As the season wore on our game plan was worked out / Fyfe got injured / injuries (and brain failures) to and by key defenders saw our watertight defence leak / we found it very difficult to post large scores.

On this last point; during our first 8 games we scored 100+ points five times - v Gee (A), WCE, Melb (A), WB's (A) and Norf (H). If you include the finals, during our last 16 games we scored 100+ points only once - v Melb (H).

Whether you blame poor forward structures or poor forwards or woeful delivery into the forward line, it was our play forward of centre which derailed our season.

Have we done enough to address this issue? Time will tell.

Go Freo.

Please.

 

[PurpleWizard]

Hawthorn need to get worse more than we need to improve.

 

[salim malik]

Hawthorn need to get worse more than we need to improve.

Makes sense,we give up and hope the Hawks die in the arse.

 

[MadDocker]

The season is a crap shoot and there's only so much we can control.

I have faith in Lyon's tactical nous. I have faith in our fitness staff in getting the guys up to the required level to play with the right intensity. I have faith in our players giving great effort.

Umpires calls, MRP/suspensions, injuries, planes getting stuck on the runway etc. are all out of our control and have a huge bearing on the end result of the season.

In short, I think we put ourselves in the best position possible to have a good crack at it and if everything goes right we could come away with it. Rarely does everything go right though...

 

[Sully90]

Hawthorn need to get worse more than we need to improve.

That's a bit pessimistic. In terms of personnel, Hawthorn aren't that much further ahead than us or any other contender. They're players just no how to stand up at the right time of year. In 2014/15, a lot of their players' best games were the preliminary and grand finals.

 

[PurpleWizard]

Maybe it didn't need to be said, but it's not pessimistic. Every club is trying to bridge the gap between Hawthorn and themselves. No team will go in as favourites against Hawthorn if they make the GF.

I feel if everything goes right there's no reason we can't get back in the pre-lim again. Hopefully with some good form heading into the finals and some improvement in our skills. Bennell will be massive too. Anything can happen in finals.

Would I feel more confident if Hawks weren't there and the GF wasn't played at their home ground where they don't lose? yes. and is this the most important factor for us winning? Sadly I think so.

 

[Eski3]

Realistically we're about 4 goals a game away from Hawthorn. If we can get 2 goals a game better (basically, with the inclusion of Harley) we will need the Hawks to get about 2 goals a game worse. It's definitely possible.

 

[AAACockburn]

Don't look at this link.
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/#

 

[Taylor]

Hawthorn are doing well with a quarter of their flag winning side out.

 

[dockerfemme]

I think we have the potential to field a stronger team this year than last year - I think the gain of Bennell more than offsets the loss of McPharlin.

However I think we need a couple of things to go right:

1. We need a new more attacking game plan. Hopefully that is in place. It may take a while to bed down and to be a force in September we need to win enough games to make top 4 while we bed in the game plan.

2. We need to be at our best in September - something we have not achieved the last 2 years. My view is that part of being at our best in September means managing Pav and Johnno. Again we have to win enough games to make top 4 while we manage these 2 veterans.

I think all of this is a big ask but it is possible. The good part is that the new game plan is about the future. Managing Pav and Johnno will give opportunities to younger players so that helps the future as well.

So I think we can have our cake (give ourselves a crack at the premiership) and eat it too (develop things for the future). But I do think we need a fair bit of luck along the way.

I also think there were some signs of cracks from Hawthorn last year, and letting Lake and Hale go weakens them IMHO.

So, we'll see.

 

[leeloo]

The season is a crap shoot and there's only so much we can control

I reckon this about sums up this year for Freo, well Freo for me anyway. I think the coaching staff think we are still in it this year but if we miss out (and maybe even if we don't) it will be time for a 'rebuild'. This is why I think that Lyon got his extension and why it is for such a long length.

 

[scon]

We need to be at our best in September - something we have not achieved..

Hawthorn do this better than anyone and hence the 3peat.This is the largest gap we have to close.
Sydney prelim and the Simmonds qualifier we turned up.
Our grand final was an opportunity lost as most acknowledge.
Hawthorn epitomise "big game mentality" including their infamous nastiness.

 

[meima]

Hawthorn do this better than anyone and hence the 3peat.This is the largest gap we have to close.
Sydney prelim and the Simmonds qualifier we turned up.
Our grand final was an opportunity lost as most acknowledge.
Hawthorn epitomise "big game mentality" including their infamous nastiness.

We can't use that as an excuse, we do have player like suban, gu or Mayne to do infamous if we want to.instead of ballas.

 

[rodney hoo]

I also think there were some signs of cracks from Hawthorn last year, and letting Lake and Hale go weakens them IMHO.

The early loss of Roughhead might also see them struggle a bit early,plus they have a hard start to the year, lost their assistant coach to Carlton as well ( can't remember his name). IMO they will still be good but not as good.
Freo is as good a shot as any, Bennall playing well could be the key, Yarran getting fit and bringing his wafl goal kicking to afl level as well could be a key. I'd also like to see Weller get a some time as I like his skill level. I believe we have depth in defence, midfieid, just a little concerned with our tall forwards, pavs a genius but he is 34, still got doubt on tabs, if our defence stays injury free I'd be trying A Pearce , he's a natural footballer. Other than a catastrophe I can't see Freo out of the top 4.

 

[TheCoach16]

Hi guys, very sorry to intrude. I don't get away from the Carlton board much but I had to pop in and ask if anyone saw Brad Johnson on fox footy tonight saying you guys will miss the finals for the next two seasons?
I have no loyalty or allegiance to Freo, but I've never heard more rot from a sports commentator in my life. He can't be serious! You guys will be top 4 and pushing for a flag over the next two or three years.
im not sure what you guys did to Johnson but what an absolutely ridiculous call by him.
Anyway, good luck for the season guys...

 

[meima]

The early loss of Roughhead might also see them struggle a bit early,plus they have a hard start to the year, lost their assistant coach to Carlton as well ( can't remember his name). IMO they will still be good but not as good.
Freo is as good a shot as any, Bennall playing well could be the key, Yarran getting fit and bringing his wafl goal kicking to afl level as well could be a key. I'd also like to see Weller get a some time as I like his skill level. I believe we have depth in defence, midfieid, just a little concerned with our tall forwards, pavs a genius but he is 34, still got doubt on tabs, if our defence stays injury free I'd be trying A Pearce , he's a natural footballer. Other than a catastrophe I can't see Freo out of the top 4.

I had doubt about Tab too, but we can't keep dropping him and expect chemistry of play is there when Pav do retire. eg if we keep depending on 2 ruckmen if the main ruckmen go down, can we play we small forward line?

 

[freoextra]

The challenge, as always, is having our best players as injury free as possible at the end of the year whilst winning enough games to challenge.

The "concerns" leading into the season is how to manage Pav, Johnson and potentially Fyfe in a manner that they are capable to contribute at the business end.

We have not managed this previously and it is one of the reasons that McPharlin retiring (although we all love him as a player) is one less headache.

 

[meima]

The challenge, as always, is having our best players as injury free as possible at the end of the year whilst winning enough games to challenge.

The "concerns" leading into the season is how to manage Pav, Johnson and potentially Fyfe in a manner that they are capable to contribute at the business end.

We have not managed this previously and it is one of the reasons that McPharlin retiring (although we all love him as a player) is one less headache.

Last season manage player injuries is our biggest down fall, hopefully the 2nd year and third year player will be able to do the job .

 

[freoextra]

Hi guys, very sorry to intrude. I don't get away from the Carlton board much but I had to pop in and ask if anyone saw Brad Johnson on fox footy tonight saying you guys will miss the finals for the next two seasons?
I have no loyalty or allegiance to Freo, but I've never heard more rot from a sports commentator in my life. He can't be serious! You guys will be top 4 and pushing for a flag over the next two or three years.
im not sure what you guys did to Johnson but what an absolutely ridiculous call by him.
Anyway, good luck for the season guys...

Interesting comment for him to make after being part of the broadcasting team last weekend. Logic would have said that he would be more enthused about our chances after watching us in the only nearly serious practice match against a strong Geelong team.

Have never detected a Freo hate coming from Johnson (who seems a good bloke) but perhaps he needs a profile and making ridiculous comments seems to be the way to go.

 

[meima]

Interesting comment for him to make after being part of the broadcasting team last weekend. Logic would have said that he would be more enthused about our chances after watching us in the only nearly serious practice match against a strong Geelong team.

Have never detected a Freo hate coming from Johnson (who seems a good bloke) but perhaps he needs a profile and making ridiculous comments seems to be the way to go.

Maybe trying to compete with Luke Darcy , or because out first Rd opponent is Western bulldog.

 

[rodney hoo]

I had doubt about Tab too, but we can't keep dropping him and expect chemistry of play is there when Pav do retire. eg if we keep depending on 2 ruckmen if the main ruckmen go down, can we play we small forward line?

As I said don't believe tabs is natural footballer, hope he proves me wrong, Sandi and Clarke would be my ruck forward, I'd like to Sandi get more time forward, if our midfield can get it to him even if he does not mark it Ballantyne, Walters, Yarran, Weller there to crumb it is dangerous. Hopefully Mayne finds his goal kicking form and our midfield kick goals those extra couple goals should do it.

 

[Big Animal]

we seemed to win a lot of close, and at times, ugly games last year (i.e. "ugly wins"), or seemed to let the opp back to close the gap in the last quarter. This was reflected in many, many, many, pages of BF comments/arguments between those who were happy just to have the win and 4 points, and the rest who just wanted (for once) to put the foot on the throat and dominate a team and show the rest of the comp (and the squiggle - FU squiggle) who's boss.

I think we have the team, the coach, the depth, the draw, and the experience to go all the way this year. I think adding Bennell tothe team is being underestimated by many opp supporters and those in the media. I hope Mora can make it onto the ground too. Obviously we were very close again last year. Just Hawthorn stood in the way as usual (and Fyfe's broken leg). Of course, we also need those things like injuries, the rub of the green, and the bounce of the ball, to go our way more often than not.

If I could just change one thing from last year (and yes, I've mentioned this before but this is a new thread so I get to say it all again, sucked in) it would be to improve our delivery into the F50. We hear about 2 extra goals per game. Well, the ball certainly goes in there enough and our forwards conversion is pretty good going by the stats once they get it. It's just about getting it to the forwards in a good position to score. This is also nothing extraordinary. Many teams at all levels have been doing this well for over a century. If this means for Freo more practice at training, change to personnel in these delivery roles, lowering eyes, better leading - whatever, I don't care. I'm sure RTB can figure it out. In my opinion, this is what causes the many close games last year and so far in the nab, and let's us down against the good teams, including those with good defensive strategies or defensive zones and prevents us from keeping up with the Hawthorn's come finals time.

Dear Ross,

Please hear my prayers and make this happen

Your faithful servant
BA

 

[Unique Name]

All commentators make stupid calls these days just to stir up the mob. Last year Carey said no team in the comp would pick up Mitchell becuase he was so slow!

 

[meima]

All commentators make stupid calls these days just to stir up the mob. Last year Carey said no team in the comp would pick up Mitchell becuase he was so slow!

Wow maybe UFO - Hannath have hope after all.

 

[Big Animal]

Hi guys, very sorry to intrude. I don't get away from the Carlton board much but I had to pop in and ask if anyone saw Brad Johnson on fox footy tonight saying you guys will miss the finals for the next two seasons?
I have no loyalty or allegiance to Freo, but I've never heard more rot from a sports commentator in my life. He can't be serious! You guys will be top 4 and pushing for a flag over the next two or three years.
im not sure what you guys did to Johnson but what an absolutely ridiculous call by him.
Anyway, good luck for the season guys...

Thanks. That's ok. Underdog status has always sat more comfortably with us as supporters.
We got similar comments at the start of last season (too old, heading down the ladder) until we won the first 9 games straight.