Unofficial Preview AtGi40D: Rounds 1-3

[Persevering Saint]

Hi guys,

So, this is how I'm going to do the pre-season full-season preview this year: in blocks of 3ish games. You just have to pick whether we will win or lose - margins will be left out. I'll also make it so there's a choice of Win or Lose for each game, and if we get even votes for a particular game, then we'll call it a drawn game (we accurately predicted a draw two years ago! ). Obviously, you get three votes per block of games, one vote for each game. For the team comparisons, I'm using the Saints team as voted by you, and I'm using the official AFL site's estimated team for the opposition. You have four days to vote, and as long as you like to discuss.

So for the first rounds we play: 1, Melbourne; 2, West Coast; and 3, Brisbane. Here's the breakdown of home and away, etc.

Round 1: Melbourne Demons
This game will be a ripper to start - both teams finished very close to each other at the end of 2016, and are both considered on the up. Obviously, we have a long-standing streak over the Dees, but things are changing for the ski-trippers. This is our home game, at Etihad, another thing definitely in our favour. The game is on Saturday afternoon, but that doesn't really represent a day advantage to either side. We invite the always appreciated master bate and the effervescent Proper Gander for their opposition insights. Here's the matchups:


Round 2: West Coast Eagles
History does not bode well for our chances. Things have gotten pretty ugly when we've travelled over to Perth recently, especially against the Weagles. They will be travelling back from Melbourne after having played the Kangas in Round 1. Also, we played on Saturday while they played on Sunday, and thus we have a day's rest advantage over them. Our game against them is on a Saturday afternoon at the beginning of April, so should be quite hot - those conditions could be a factor. NicNat not playing might help us out, and it's less likely that Kennedy will rip us a new one, given we've got Brown and Carlisle. But really, this is obviously going to be a massive challenge. We appreciate the insights of ROYAL EAGLE and Scotland here to set us straight. Here are the matchups:


Round 3: Brisbane Lions
The final game in this block is against the Lions. We will be travelling back from Perth, so that's probably going to help them, although it's a home game for us, which means they're travelling, obviously. The Lions will have played the Bombers the week before on Saturday, pretty much the same time we played the Eagles, so time advantage is virtually non-existent for either side. This game is on a Sunday afternoon - a pretty ordinary time, but hey, it's not twilight. And it's at Etihad. We look for special opposition insights from the ginormous SizeMatters and the ancient wisdom of Roylion. Here are the matchups:


So, in summary, make your choices, and lets see how we go, Around the Grounds in 40 Days.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Pretty much: 50/50, Lose, Win.

R1 is huge. We absolutely have to take it and history suggests we do. But Melbourne is more than due to beat us.

R2 I'd be happy if we got within 100 points this time! But realistically, we won't be expected to win but I'd like to see us be competitive. If we snatch a win - watch out.

R3 we have to win this if we're serious about making finals.

 

[Nutsngum]

There wont be a game this year we cant realisticly win, however the Eagles game is going to be one of the harder ones.

Our away form has been just awful recently but we HAVE to break it if we have any hope of being a genuine contender.

 

[George]

Great stuff mate will have a think and reply shortly! Love the write up!

 

[Keg on legs]

That opening game is just so important.

Win it and the (expected) round 2 loss isn't so bad with Bris to come. Lose it and we are 0-2 with some catching up to do.

Early wins are so important. You can't afford to fall behind too far

 

[JG22]

That opening game is just so important.

Win it and the (expected) round 2 loss isn't so bad with Bris to come. Lose it and we are 0-2 with some catching up to do.

Early wins are so important. You can't afford to fall behind too far

We mustn't get thrashed by the Eagles. We atleast have to challenge them this year if we are going to play finals.
Can't be getting smashed

 

[Barrels]

Win. Win. Win.



Aim high.

 

[12Chill]

I expect us to win in Rounds 1 and 3.

Round 1 vs Melbourne Demons:

If Hickey continues to break even or beat Gawn like he did in '16 then it gives us the best possible chance to have first use as well as Hickey getting the ball on ground level as an almost extra mid type. This is where Hickey got on top of Gawn last season and hopefully he continues to do this. Around the ground no more 3rd man up will benefit Gawn at stoppages (not sure how often we used this against Melbourne last year) so it'll be interesting to see how that pans out. They have a lot of really good inside mids but hopefully we can expose them for pace on the outside. Whoever is on Jayden Hunt will need to be mindful defensively to stop him getting loose because his run and drive from the backline will be costly for us if we can't stop it- from memory Wright did the job when we played in the latter half of last year and did well.

Carlisle should be able to provide some rebound on an inexperienced Weideman. Will be interesting to see if they decide to play both McDonalds AND Frost to cover for all of Membrey, McCartin and Bruce or whether they'll be happy with a Hibberd type on him. Either way I don't think they're going to have an answer for Membrey, he's got a little bit of height on Hibberd + better in the air.

If we bring our pressure again we should come out on top, I think we play a better team game.

Also, Etihad.

Winner/Margin: St Kilda by 14 points

Round 2 vs West Coast Eagles:

Naitanui jumped all over Hickey last time and we had no answer for it, few teams do. With Naitanui out of the equation it makes the midfield battle far more interesting, I fully expect Hickey to be able to beat Lycett or Vardy and give us a chance at first use which we didn't have last time. Mitchell strengthens their midfield, perhaps Ross will play a bit of a loose role on him like he did in Tassie last year in Round 4- Mitchell got plenty of the ball but most were handballs and I didn't feel he was very damaging and that his numbers actually flattered his influence on the game. Shuey and Steven are like for like. Armitage and Priddis is a good match up if Armo gets back to his '15 form. We should be giving it a red hot crack in the midfield.

Actually having tall defenders no doubt is huge. JJK kicked 5 goals in the first quarter in Round 8 last year. The game was over. And having the extra tall forward in Paddy McCartin will help a lot.

A few questions on some of their players like Yeo, Jetta and Redden. Do they improve on 2016 performances or do they continue to stagnate and go backwards? Hard to get a reading on it, if they bounce back I can see them being top 6 again even without Nic Nat. If they go backwards again then we might be fighting for a spot in the 8 with them. Who knows?

Ultimately I think it's going to a lot closer of a game than last time, and we'll improve our travelling performance, but I don't think we're going to go from 100 point losers to 3 goal winners in Perth in less than a year. Hopefully but unlikely.

Winner/Margin: West Coast by 23 points.

Round 3 vs Brisbane Lions:

I can only see this being a big win for us that exceeds the margin last time considering the players that we didn't have in Round 23 against them. We might not kick a bigger score but defensively I can see us being far better. They have a lot of young guys who aren't ready to take big steps yet while most of ours should be kicking on like Acres and Billings. Don't have a whole lot to say on this one, we shouldn't lose this and it shouldn't even be close.

Winner/Margin: St Kilda by 81 points.

 

[Sir Skid]

We'll win the first 3

 

[Periphery]

Assuming no additional injuries:

Round 1: If we are going to be a serious shot at finals this is a must win. Wont be easy as the Dees are going to improve and are due for a win over us but I think we'll manage to hold them off. Voted win.

Round 2: We have something to prove in this one. Not only do we have to squash the "Saints hate to travel" thing but we were embarrassed by West Coast last year. Then factor in no Nic Nat for them and us getting Brown + Carlisle combined with also having a greater scope for improvement due to our list profile and I think we are a legit shot at winning it. But anything better than a 3 goal loss would be huge imo. Voted win.

Round 3: LOL GG EZ (As with any game; if the team goes into it with a poor attitude we could lose this. Gotta want to crush every team we play and not assume there are any easy beats - even if they should be). Voted win.

 

[George]

Massive game to open the year, if the boys are serious about September, and as good as Melbourne have become, we simply must beat them.

Provided Rooey plays in Round 2, he'll tie Stewie Loewe for 3rd all-time games played at St.Kilda - so if there's any added incentive to win this game there it is. We obviously were incredibly poor on the road in 2016, our last road win came against Brisbane in Round 9 2015 so there's a bit of a hoodoo there. I think West Coast aren't as good as they were last year and I expect Hickey to have a solid outing. I am optimistic that we will win more games than we lose on the road this year, but I think so early in the season it may take a bit of time for us to get into a groove - I would be surprised if we won this game - but how fantastic would it be if we did.

Brisbane in R3 is simply just a must win game. Roo will tie for 2nd all-time in games played provided he plays the previous 2, and depending on how he's going in front of goal he could be lining up for goal #700 of his career at some point during the game (on 689 right now) so that could be something to look forward to. Regardless we must win this one...there's no excuses.

I've got us at 2-1 at the end of Round 3.

 

[master bate]

Thanks for the invite.

I don't need to rehash Melbourne's record at Etihad or against St Kilda. Except to say both have largely been due to an inability to kick the ball on the narrower confines and against the Saints pressure game, and an inability to put on our own pressure.

Dees fans are most keen on the recruitment of Hibberd and Lewis in the hope we get 15 or so kicks from both of them a game that helps the disposal problem.

But the biggest change for the Dees will be in coaching and how that translates. So far training has featured more competitive work, more in tight handballing Dogs style and also a heap of aggressive straight to goal kicking including a lot of non preferred kicking. I'm not sure if it will work but so far Goodwin isn't holding back.

Your best 22 looks pretty good. The contentious spots are the 3rd tall at either end and then whether the extra defender replaces a mid.

Match up concerns/possibilities for the Dees are:

Backline:
- Hibberd as the 3rd tall undersized on Membrey with aerial support from Jetta/Hunt/Vince etc. or do we play Frost and go in a bit less skilled but with some extra pace and defensive ability?
- Will Salem, Hibberd give us enough skill from half back, and have the other defenders improved?
- Can Oscar McDonald hold down Bruce/McCartin

Midfield:
- Hickey does far better against Gawn than most do
- Steven and Viney have good battles
- Depth looks solid for both sides
- Lewis is set to play on a wing. I'd give him Nick Riewoldt first up, otherwise Melksham might have to mind him

Forward
- I think Carlisle has to go to Hogan. He's been too quick and fit for Brown and too big for Dempster. He often plays closer to goal at Etihad as well
- Weeds is probably the leading contender for the 2nd tall but I'm not sure about him at Etihad. Pedersen remains a chance, if not we could go small. Someone like Aaron Vandenberg who's a mid/forward and 3rd tall size could be picked as he'd suit the ground, or Tim Smith from Casey if he can be upgraded
- Garlett gets smashed by Geary but I think he needs a good preseason to even get locked in for round 1
- Extra fitness and experience at half forward might finally be enough for some youngsters to make Montagna, Savage etc accountable

 

[sasaint]

Teams like Melbourne exposed our lack of height in defense last year by moving their ruck forward. Gawn really troubled us last year and we played Hickey as ruck/rover and depended on structured defense to hold their extra tall forward. This didn't always work. Carlisle and Brown are game changers and will keep forward resting rucks in check, and may even give us massive rebound opportunities. I think we will keep the D's on their losing streak, and give the Weagles a tough fight. Lions? Never underestimate any game, but should be a good win.

 

[saint66au]

The nature of how % is calculated means that a flogging earlier in the year affects it far more than later on..ie if we get absolutely murdered by the Eagles we have to try and inflict likewise on the Lions the following week to balance it up. Every week that goes past a % gap is harder to make up.

 

[bergholt]

The nature of how % is calculated means that a flogging earlier in the year affects it far more than later on..ie if we get absolutely murdered by the Eagles we have to try and inflict likewise on the Lions the following week to balance it up. Every week that goes past a % gap is harder to make up.

Nah, makes no difference mathematically.

 

[St Neil]

If Saints beat Melbourne in round 1 we will win the first 3 matches. Momentum and self-belief are wonderful things.

If we lose in round 1 we will lose to West Coast in round 2 and beat Brisbane in a must win round 3. We will be nervy about that game if that was the scenario.

I predict we win in round 1 and be 3-0. Then we're cooking with gas.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Great thread Perse

Melbourne is going to be interesting with a new coach and some good recruits who will only help them. I'm biased (as are we all) and say we'll win but I would not be surprised if they do and they are due. It depends on how our pre season goes. If we manage to play all 3 games. I still maintain the pre season debacle meant less game fitness in the boys legs which cost us the Port game when they ran all over us in the final qtr.

WCE I dont expect us to win but whatever happens it cannot be a smashing. We need to keep it to 4 goals or less to start to turn the tide of interstate results....we have been nowhere near it in 2016 interstate which has been embarassing so that needs to change

Brisbane - this has to be a 8+ goal win - nothing less. They'll have a lot of (talented) youngsters with a great coach but will need another year or two before the club and supporters start to see improvement in a lot of areas. I like what they are doing with their list but these kids need another 2-3 years before they can start impacting games.

Melbourne is seen as a rival, (which is great as I genuinely want the Dees to do well , albeit behind us lol), so we have to win which means our pre season needs to be timed well in terms of practice and match fitness so we can hit the ground running. WCE an honorable loss, (love to sneak a win without NIcNac). And Brisbane a romp.

Already other posters have pointed out how great it is having Jake and Nathan Brown to take on Hogan and Kennedy in particular who used to do well against us (like Hawkins and Jack Roo to name two others) and allow Seany D to be that third defender. That will be a luxury we can finally afford after 4/5 years!!!

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Oh and I forgot to mention how important our start is to membership and to sponsors. Win, honorable loss and big win to start then watch the club pushing legitimately for that 45k members target...

 

[Cornish]

I have us going down to the Dees in round1 by 8 points (bad umpiring costs us the game )
I have us bouncing back and winning against the Eagles by 11 points
I have us bouncing the Lions all over the park with us winning by 36 points

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

I have us going down to the Dees in round1 by 8 points (bad umpiring costs us the game )
I have us bouncing back and winning against the Eagles by 11 points
I have us bouncing the Lions all over the park with us winning by 36 points

It's that bloody work experience umpire again isn't it? He's hopeless

Controversial - I like it!!

 

[Persevering Saint]

I have us going down to the Dees in round1 by 8 points (bad umpiring costs us the game )
I have us bouncing back and winning against the Eagles by 11 points
I have us bouncing the Lions all over the park with us winning by 36 points

LoL. Note the extended bench for the Eagles.

 

[Brains Trust66]

This is a great idea, well done . Although it's hard this far away and we don't know if there will be injuries. However we can only go on the teams put before us.
Round 1 - Close game against Melbourne but I feel confident we can win because Brown and or Carlisle will keep Hogan mostly out of the game . I also feel we are slightly ahead of Melbourne in our development of our list. So win.

Round 2 - hard game against the weagles but I think we will win . No such thing as an honourable lost for any team trying to make the finals . We either win or lose. I think west coast are on the slow slide down with out Nic the Star to hold them up . A close win for the saints to make others sit up and notice .

Round 3 - no such thing as an easy win anymore . Don't put in 100% and you loose. However the boys will be confident after the first two wins they won't want to throw away what should be a must win . Good teams don't loose these type of games.

So 3 - 0 to start the season. Alright, come on Sainters.

 

[Persevering Saint]

For me, I really love looking at the matchups, especially for the Dees and Eagles game. Comparing apples for apples, and asking which matchups we win, tells an interesting story.

 

[Phoenix_9]

Melbourne will be a good contest, but on paper we have the better side, the history, the mental edge. Win.

Eagles away will be especially hard. Not many win there. Don't expect a win, but need us to compete. On paper, we match up fairly well, I'd give us a win in Melbourne. But as we are away, Loss.

Brisbane we have to comprehensively beat to stamp our selves as finals contenders. Win.

 

[Proper Gander]

I don't know that nerves about the round one result are warranted from Saints supporters. While I try to tell myself that the "anything can happen" element of round one clashes is a good opportunity to end this stupid streak, logic brain generally dictates that if in doubt it's best to tip the home side in round one. Etihad factor just adds more weight to that approach. I'm expecting a round one loss at this point.

I don't know if we will play weedy in round one. I hope so because much as I like Pedo's effort, he's not really good enough long term and I would like to see more games and development from the weed. I guess this all depends on preseason and NAB challenge form. The Hogan v Carlisle matchup alone makes it worth rocking up to the docklands grim just to watch. That should be good.

Oddly, I think a round one win has more meaning for Melbourne if it happens then it would for the Saints - winning in round one is nice for anyone but wouldn't really tell you that much about how 2017 will go in general for Saints. Round two is a biggie for the Saints because if you can throw off the travel yips then you're really going places.