Back-to-Back 6 Day Breaks in the AFL

[McCrann]

Interesting to look at this stat.

Thus far this year 5 teams have played off back-to-back 6 Day breaks.

Collingwood - beat Western Bulldogs & Melbourne then (Round 3) lost to St. Kilda (ran out of legs in last quarter)

Essendon - beat Carlton then (Round 4) lost to West Coast (thrashed, although 5 junk goals in the last quarter)

Hawthorn - lost to Geelong, Bulldogs (Round 4) lost to Collingwood (thrashed)

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide (Both teams were off back-to-back 6 day breaks). Of course - the better team won.

Next teams to face this

Western Bulldogs v St. Kilda (Round 6) (FRI)

Fremantle v Collingwood (Round 8) - Both teams (FRI)

Collingwood v Geelong (Round 9) (FRI)

Essendon v Western Bulldogs (Round 10) (FRI)

Richmond v St. Kilda (Round 11) (FRI)

Given this (and no Riewoldt and the tough slog against Port Adelaide) I can't see us getting up this week - could be our first regular season blowout (Over 3 goals) since Round 12, 2008. (37 Home & Away matches without losing by 3 goals+ means we're probably due).

 

[McCrann]

Perhaps surprisingly - throughout the entire 2010 AFL Season I could only find 16 cases of teams playing on back-to-back 6 day breaks.

As well - 8 of those involved match-ups between 2 teams both coming off a back-to-back 6 day break - ala Western Bulldogs v Adelaide.

Leaving only 8 genuine cases in which a team was disadvantaged on this measure coming into a game.

 

[Notorious_29]

Some good research there. Already was going to have a good go at Bulldogs at the line this weekend, but this is some good reassurance.

 

[Cuzz09]

Yeah, I like the Doggies 1-39.

Cant see the Saints getting hammered but 3-4 goals should be right.

(hopefully)

 

[Dr Awkward]

Yeah 2 short breaks must be a disadvantage. Although sometimes I believe it is factored into the price anyway. I know Dutchy looks very closely at breaks...etc. I would like to see a larger sample size from the last 5 years or something.

 

[cynical]

6 day break with travel or a tough game also makes a difference

think it makes more of a difference for heavy running and young sides

after the bulldogs insipid effort against brisbane a few weeks ago i've made sure to take this into account when betting