Werewolf BEaston Basic* WW Part V - Vampires Win!

[The Majestic]

Wow mate! Thats the first thing you have said all day….

Suppose you couldn’t use seeing Lilo & Stitch again? 3 times would be an overkill huh

Suppose your just busy? Or hiding?

Not hiding my girlfriends in hospital. Sorry that I've been busy.

 

[DemurePrincess]

Not hiding my girlfriends in hospital. Sorry that I've been busy.

Oh whoops!

 

[MC Bad Genius]

por_please_ya thanks BEaston.

Could test this with a multi. If you are, only DP will get lynched.

I quite like this idea.

Dingster - thoughts?

 

[The Majestic]

Oh whoops!

Yeah waiting in ED

 

[MC Bad Genius]

Yeah waiting in ED

jmoo wan - I'm sure you've got something witty to share here ... ?

 

[The Majestic]

jmoo wan - I'm sure you've got something witty to share here ... ?

Oh God.

 

[jmoo wan]

jmoo wan - I'm sure you've got something witty to share here ... ?

i’m going to sit this one out, I think

 

[Tarkyn_24]

i’m going to sit this one out, I think

Oh please.

Don’t pretend you’ve grown as a person.

 

[MC Bad Genius]

Oh please.

Don’t pretend you’ve grown as a person.

It looks like the Flogs aren't going to lead the potential multi-lynch here on DP and porps. I'm pretty keen to get it done if you're willing to go in on it.

 

[jmoo wan]

Oh please.

Don’t pretend you’ve grown as a person.

ED stands for Erectile Dysfunction

 

[Tarkyn_24]

It looks like the Flogs aren't going to lead the potential multi-lynch here on DP and porps. I'm pretty keen to get it done if you're willing to go in on it.

I mean to my eye Porps has as good as admitted she’s evil. But ideally the vote does have flog buy in, given that’s the biggest available group and they all know definitively (vamp recruits aside) that they can trust one another.

Plus I also get misgivings about your presentation of this to me. Feels like a wolf in sheep’s clothing offer.

 

[DemurePrincess]

I mean to my eye Porps has as good as admitted she’s evil. But ideally the vote does have flog buy in, given that’s the biggest available group and they all know definitively (vamp recruits aside) that they can trust one another.

Plus I also get misgivings about your presentation of this to me. Feels like a wolf in sheep’s clothing offer.

Let’s lynch him instead!

 

[The Half Back]

no one has claimed recruit
that is a role that no one has claimed
is that the role that you are claiming?

Sure, that works.

por_please_ya at the moment please BEaston

 

[por_please_ya]

Porps - an exhibit. She went fishing on Ding too earlier but I neglected to quote that one.

“I’m a drifting soul. Oh all drifting souls have been found? Here’s every single other player playing, seer them instead”.

Obsessed

 

[MC Bad Genius]

I mean to my eye Porps has as good as admitted she’s evil. But ideally the vote does have flog buy in, given that’s the biggest available group and they all know definitively (vamp recruits aside) that they can trust one another.

Plus I also get misgivings about your presentation of this to me. Feels like a wolf in sheep’s clothing offer.

Yeah, I'm aware that everything I post has the potential to be taken that way. I'm of course trying to look for hidden meaning in everything you post (and jmoo for that matter, too).

That's Vamparanoia for ya!

 

[MC Bad Genius]

For what it's worth, I went to the trouble of trying to pull together a role list.

<< #ListerTheory I hear 3KZ is Football yelling from the cheap seats >>

Mafia	Godfather	BFew	Day 3	Lynched
	Mafioso	Bluelegs	Night 2	Vampires
	??
	Goon	MarcMaverick	Day 2	Lynched
Werewolves	Alpha
	Beta	Gralin	Day 1	Lynched
	Werecub	The_Reaper	Night 4	Flogs
	Wolf	Spooky17	Day 1	Withdrawal
Neutral	Head Vampire
Good	Flog	Nothing	Night 1	Mafia
	Flog	Dingster
	Flog
	Vigilante	WABulldog	Night 4	Mafia
	JOAT	Tarkyn_24
	Doctor	MC Bad Genius
	Town Drunk	Chipmunk
	Bus Driver	DERO	Night 2	Werewolves
	Watcher	Kurve	Night 3	Werewolves
	Drifting Soul (unaligned)	dogs105	Day 2	Withdrawal
	Drifting Soul (unaligned)	JHF1870	Day 2	Modkill
	Drifting Soul (Werewolf)	MWPP	Night 3	Mafia
	Drifting Soul (Mafia)	ZergMinion	Night 3	JOAT
	Drifting Soul (Mafia)	Pie 4 Life	Night 4	Werewolves
	Drifting Soul (Mafia)	Cadsky	Night 4	Vigilante
	Drifting Soul (Flogs)	jmoo wan
	Drifting Soul

This is what I learned from doing it (that surely lots of remaining players already knew, but whatever):

1. There were 4 players in each of the factions (unless for some insane reason BEaston had the Mafia with one less)
2. We might still have a Manipulator in play, so the multi-lynch could be a bust. Did someone already reveal that there WAS a Manipulator or was that in the last game
3. The only good roles that aren't 100% confirmed exist are Doctor (although WABulldog's missed kills 99% get us there) and the Town Drunk (although I think Chip is definitely clever enough to do it as a fake claim, the kill of Gralin would be pretty wild if he wasn't actually the TD - still, there's 1% doubt there)
4. por_please_ya's most likely the final Drifting Soul (I don't really believe the Local Celebrity claim, but I'm OK to test it out)

That means the following players all started with a role (and only one of them is a good one - our last Flog):

Demure Princess
The Majestic
Hydatina Physis
The Half Back

There are at most 2 Vamp recruits, so they're current win condition is to get to Final 6 (with the other factions wiped out), but if we multi-lynch today, they could potentially recruit one more player tonight and have enough players to meet their win condition.

So I think we should only do a multi-lynch if we're pretty certain that at least one of the players is Head Vampire or recruited.

 

[The Majestic]

ED stands for Erectile Dysfunction

I asked them in emergency if they'd check for me, they said no. They didn't seem to want to do much got a bunch of scripts been sent home so home we go.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

For what it's worth, I went to the trouble of trying to pull together a role list.

<< #ListerTheory I hear 3KZ is Football yelling from the cheap seats >>

Mafia	Godfather	BFew	Day 3	Lynched
	Mafioso	Bluelegs	Night 2	Vampires
	??
	Goon	MarcMaverick	Day 2	Lynched
Werewolves	Alpha
	Beta	Gralin	Day 1	Lynched
	Werecub	The_Reaper	Night 4	Flogs
	Wolf	Spooky17	Day 1	Withdrawal
Neutral	Head Vampire
Good	Flog	Nothing	Night 1	Mafia
	Flog	Dingster
	Flog
	Vigilante	WABulldog	Night 4	Mafia
	JOAT	Tarkyn_24
	Doctor	MC Bad Genius
	Town Drunk	Chipmunk
	Bus Driver	DERO	Night 2	Werewolves
	Watcher	Kurve	Night 3	Werewolves
	Drifting Soul (unaligned)	dogs105	Day 2	Withdrawal
	Drifting Soul (unaligned)	JHF1870	Day 2	Modkill
	Drifting Soul (Werewolf)	MWPP	Night 3	Mafia
	Drifting Soul (Mafia)	ZergMinion	Night 3	JOAT
	Drifting Soul (Mafia)	Pie 4 Life	Night 4	Werewolves
	Drifting Soul (Mafia)	Cadsky	Night 4	Vigilante
	Drifting Soul (Flogs)	jmoo wan
	Drifting Soul

This is what I learned from doing it (that surely lots of remaining players already knew, but whatever):

1. There were 4 players in each of the factions (unless for some insane reason BEaston had the Mafia with one less)
2. We might still have a Manipulator in play, so the multi-lynch could be a bust. Did someone already reveal that there WAS a Manipulator or was that in the last game
3. The only good roles that aren't 100% confirmed exist are Doctor (although WABulldog's missed kills 99% get us there) and the Town Drunk (although I think Chip is definitely clever enough to do it as a fake claim, the kill of Gralin would be pretty wild if he wasn't actually the TD - still, there's 1% doubt there)
4. por_please_ya's most likely the final Drifting Soul (I don't really believe the Local Celebrity claim, but I'm OK to test it out)

That means the following players all started with a role (and only one of them is a good one - our last Flog):

Demure Princess
The Majestic
Hydatina Physis
The Half Back

There are at most 2 Vamp recruits, so they're current win condition is to get to Final 6 (with the other factions wiped out), but if we multi-lynch today, they could potentially recruit one more player tonight and have enough players to meet their win condition.

So I think we should only do a multi-lynch if we're pretty certain that at least one of the players is Head Vampire or recruited.

Agree with pretty much all of this fwiw

 

[Tarkyn_24]

I’m not sure if this is helpful but this is where my thoughts were at this morning prior to night actions being revealed. Was just trying to get a grip on where I felt I stood on everyone at that time:

Alive Players:
Demure Princess - likely evil, probable big based on BFew
Pie 4 Life - breadcrumbing and leading left right and centre. A tactic I usually associate with him being evil.
The Majestic - probably a flog but who knows
The_Reaper - started out strongly feeling evil but starting to come around on him being in the flog clan as well just given similarity of interactions with Jmoo . Is however playing a bit like Dingster does when he’s evil - getting more vocal the longer her survives to try and turn the tale. Whichever way he flips it strikes me as a stereotypical evil game
Cadsky - don’t really have an opinion. Low or recruited mafia if anything
WABulldog - good, possible recruit N3
Tarkyn_24 - good
Chipmunk - outed good but a very attractive camp recruit
Hydatina Physis -sense he’s in the flog camp, despite how everything shook out early doors v MWPP
jmoo wan
MC Bad Genius - good and unrecruited
The Half Back - hiding. Questionable.
por_please_ya - evil
Dingster - floggy vibes here too

My big question mark is the starting configuration of roles. There were only nine possible opportunities to recruit drifting souls before they were all accounted for. Does this maybe suggest five evil starters - but with the potential to recruit that would make the factions huge so doubt it. Also no real evidence has come to light of a lot of the evil roles existing or even maybe existing given volume of kills, lynch trajectories etc.

Obviously, a couple more aligned drifting souls showing up in those results negates most of the musing I had made about the size of the factions. I definitely expected more crossover/misses in that regard.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Behaviourally, I think MCBG feels unrecruited. However, there was also that strange post on deadline that I still feel was more designed for a PM than the thread. It’s probably the only thing I can fault him on though.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Also threw this into my PM as I was about to head to sleep. Wasn’t going to come out with it because it feels like finger pointing but you may as well get my whole complete thoughts:

The more I’ve reflected on it, the more I think the town drunk is the ultimate vamp recruit here. It’s not a traditional power role, so it’s not likely to attract kills. It’s a good aligned role that if uncountered shouldn’t attract any stray seers. To a degree, every faction and the village are all going to be inclined to comb through everyone else unless hiding spots or lynch weightings get to such a point that the hand is forced to take out a “good” vote.

Not only that, but the TD can make up whatever the hell action they want after the fact, and also the unpredictable nature of their actions mean evil are probably perfectly fine keeping them around. It really is the ultimate survivalist.

If the head vampire is a savvy player I reckon they’ll have gone there. The question is how many here are that savvy?

 

[DemurePrincess]

Also threw this into my PM as I was about to head to sleep. Wasn’t going to come out with it because it feels like finger pointing but you may as well get my whole complete thoughts:

The more I’ve reflected on it, the more I think the town drunk is the ultimate vamp recruit here. It’s not a traditional power role, so it’s not likely to attract kills. It’s a good aligned role that if uncountered shouldn’t attract any stray seers. To a degree, every faction and the village are all going to be inclined to comb through everyone else unless hiding spots or lynch weightings get to such a point that the hand is forced to take out a “good” vote.

Not only that, but the TD can make up whatever the hell action they want after the fact, and also the unpredictable nature of their actions mean evil are probably perfectly fine keeping them around. It really is the ultimate survivalist.

If the head vampire is a savvy player I reckon they’ll have gone there. The question is how many here are that savvy?

I love when the essays come out!

I dare there will be more….

 

[Hydatina Physis]

I love when the essays come out!

I dare there will be more….

Nah JHF is dead.

 

[DemurePrincess]

Nah JHF is dead.

 

[DemurePrincess]

I love when the essays come out!

I dare there will be more….

*say

I really hate when my brain forget words hey ffs