Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[NavySteel]

Top shelf stuff, FBI.

The fact that we're playing 2-3 more youth players (and a lot in their debut season coming off zero AFL footy), on average (looking by eye at those graphs), than last season, the stats are still showing themselves to be increasing on a nice upwards trend.

Another interesting observation is on the SEN ratings. The peaks and troughs from last season look to generally correspond to lower youth numbers played and higher youth numbers played, respectively. Without looking through the data specifically, I think this could be attributed to Cripps and Doc having awesome seasons, which I believe would stand out more in games where less youth players were played, i.e. bumping up the average in those games (if that makes sense!).

What's interesting to see this season is that the average SEN rating is stable, and looks to have around about the same average value as last season.

While on face value one could say that doesn't indicate much improvement, but when you think about it, it's actually quite remarkable -- this is with more youth players playing! This means that Cripps' and Doc's ratings are effectively further "diluted" (and on top of that, Crippa's influence is not as pronounced - he's still growing to his beastly best on the back of zero preseason).

Based purely on the numbers, what is shows is that not only are we pumping plenty of games into our youth, but the youth are good. They're quality players.

We'd expect to see a much, much bigger dip at the start of this season if the youth players were collectively not performing. But we're not.

Obviously don't want to count the chickens yet, but this is how I interpret the data. However, and importantly, we're actually witnessing it on the field every week.

So for the next 33 games of the reset - the back half of this season I think we'll see a stronger upward trend (if we continue to play the amount of youth we are currently playing) and the next season an even stronger upwards trend as the youth players continue to play together and gain more game time experience. It actually may not be quite linear, but more of an upwards curve! This would be ideal, and I think we have it in us based on how we're looking here.

If this was to eventuate, we would be looking really, really dangerous for the 2019 season!

 

[Jeremias]

Official AFL Player Ratings

As at the conclusion of round 13

Patrick Cripps - 30 (+2)
Sam Docherty - 64 (+2)
Lachie Plowman - 239 (+6)
Jacob Weitering - 259 (+5)
Sam Kerridge - 431
Jack Silvagni - 461 (+22)
Nick Graham - 465 (-17)
Dylan Buckley - 467 (-18)
Blaine Boekhorst - 477 (+3)
Liam Sumner - 481 (-3)
Charlie Curnow - 485 (+4)
Caleb Marchbank - 493 (+3)
Ciaran Byrne - 514 (-1)
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 518 (+5)
Zac Fisher - 545 (+13)
Tom Williamson - 564 (-1)
David Cuningham - 566 (-2)
Daniel Gorringe - 598
Harrison Macreadie - 608 (-2)
Kristian Jaksch - 622 (-2)
Jarrod Pickett - 629 (-1)
Cameron Polson - 672

Huge jumps from Doc and SOS...

 

[Magruder]

Official AFL Player Ratings

As at the conclusion of round 13

Patrick Cripps - 30 (+2)
Sam Docherty - 43 (+23)
Lachie Plowman - 239 (+6)
Jacob Weitering - 259 (+5)
Sam Kerridge - 431
Jack Silvagni - 461 (+22)
Nick Graham - 465 (-17)
Dylan Buckley - 467 (-18)
Blaine Boekhorst - 477 (+3)
Liam Sumner - 481 (-3)
Charlie Curnow - 485 (+4)
Caleb Marchbank - 493 (+3)
Ciaran Byrne - 514 (-1)
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 518 (+5)
Zac Fisher - 545 (+13)
Tom Williamson - 564 (-1)
David Cuningham - 566 (-2)
Daniel Gorringe - 598
Harrison Macreadie - 608 (-2)
Kristian Jaksch - 622 (-2)
Jarrod Pickett - 629 (-1)
Cameron Polson - 672

Huge jumps from Doc and SOS...

about a dozen players on that list that could occupy spots in the top 150 at the same time.

yummo

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Massive from Doc.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Gibbs is 43. Doc is 64.

Might've mixed them up, Doc is climbing but unfortunately not at that rate.

 

[Jeremias]

Gibbs is 43. Doc is 64.

Might've mixed them up, Doc is climbing but unfortunately not at that rate.

They definitely had Doc at 43 when I posted the update. I checked 5 times because it's a massive jump for someone ranked so high already.

Must've made a mistake and corrected it since.

 

[Mr_Plow]

They definitely had Doc at 43 when I posted the update. I checked 5 times because it's a massive jump for someone ranked so high already.

Must've made a mistake and corrected it since.

Yeah, looks to have been amended.
Nonetheless, Jack is in some pretty good form, having risen 38 spots in 2 weeks.

Meanwhile, Plowman and Weiters continue chugging along, gaining 5-10 spots a week.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Gibbs is 43. Doc is 64.

Might've mixed them up, Doc is climbing but unfortunately not at that rate.

Where do you find these rankings?

I'm always surprised to see how poorly Marchbank's games are rated. takes intercept marks, provides run out of the backline but his ranking points always seem poorer than I would expect.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Where do you find these rankings?

I'm always surprised to see how poorly Marchbank's games are rated. takes intercept marks, provides run out of the backline but his ranking points always seem poorer than I would expect.

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/overall-standings#club/CD_T30

I think it's the lower disposal efficiency and more turnovers (than say, Plowman) that are costing him ranking points.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Where do you find these rankings?

I'm always surprised to see how poorly Marchbank's games are rated. takes intercept marks, provides run out of the backline but his ranking points always seem poorer than I would expect.

http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/overall-standings#club/CD_T30

I think it's the lower disposal efficiency and more turnovers (than say, Plowman) that are costing him ranking points.

Marchbank has only played 19 games to Plowman's 51 and the total rankings points are accumulated over a rolling 2 year/40 game period, but defenders generally don't score as highly anyway (KPPs especially, obviously Doc and the likes can put up bigger numbers).

 

[ParapMarkets]

Marchbank has only played 19 games to Plowman's 51 and the total rankings points are accumulated over a rolling 2 year/40 game period, but defenders generally don't score as highly anyway (KPPs especially, obviously Doc and the likes can put up bigger numbers).

Oh I get the point about only having played 19 games. I just mean his points for each game are far worse than Plowman for example, Plowman's movements up the order always seem much more significant.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Update will be up tonight

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22 (Series 1) along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes (Series 2), average youth AFL Player Rating* (Series 3) and average SEN Inside Football Player Rating Points** (Series 4)
* Avg AFL Player Rating = total player rating / number of players.
** Avg SEN Inside Football Player Rating = total player rating points / number of players.

GAME 34 Rnd 13 - WIN vs Gold Coast (83-73)
13 Youth Players
Coaches Votes: Sam Docherty (8)
Player Ratings Points (AFL,SEN):

Patrick Cripps - 487.7, 7
Sam Docherty - 435.1, 8
Lachlan Plowman - 283.7, 4
Jacob Weitering - 269.9, 6
Charlie Curnow - 106.9, 5
Caleb Marchbank - 97.6, 5
Jack Silvagni - 121.7, 4
Jed Lamb - 101.5, 5
Samo Petrevski-Seton - 85.4, 5
Tom Williamson - 52.6, 2
Zac Fisher - 65.2, 5
David Cuningham - 50.9, 4


Average: 175.53, 5.00

What an absolutely brilliant feeling, two wins in a row. We dominated Gold Coast in the first half, and we came back when it meant most. There were some huge jumps this week, SOS flew up the board, Docherty continues to climb, Plowman is making steady gains and Zac Fisher was a big improver this week.

We played 13 kids, yet managed to have one of our highest ratings of the year at a 175 average that is JUST so impressive. Not to mention the even spread of performances by our kids, the average was 5 flat, and only 3 of our players dropped below that mark, it was an even performance by all of our kids, an AFL quality performance.

Sam Docherty, who will stop him, 30 disposals at an amazing 96% disposal efficiency, 9 marks, 9 tackles, 7 1%ers and 5 inside 50's. How about Jack Silvagni, our fourth rising star came up big with 2 huge goals in the last quarter. He had 13 touches, 6 marks, 5 inside 50s and his two goals. Patrick Cripps had some really big efforts, his little moments were impressive and as were his game high 10 clearances. He had 7 tackles, 15 contested possession and 27 touches. Jed Lamb had an impressive game, he had 17 touches, 4 marks, 1 contested mark, 5 tackles, 3 inside 50's and a goal. Blaine Boekhurst was decent in his return to AFL, playing in the backline mostly he had 18 touches, 4 marks, 3 rebound 50's, and a goal. Caleb Marchbank continues to chug along as a key pillar in our backline, this week he contributed tot he win with 6 marks, 1 contested mark, 15 touches and 5 1%ers. Charlie Curnow threatened to take away the game in the first quarter kicking a goal and having 8 touches, he finished with 15 touches, 3 marks, 3 tackles, a goal and 2 goal assists. Samo Petrevski Seton did a part with 15 touches, 7 tackles and 4 inside 50;s, he had 3 marks and should have had 4 if the umpire didn't steal one from him. David Cuningham was more quiet than last week, he had 10 touches, 4 inside 50's and 7 big tackles. Zac Fisher continues to put so much pressure on, he had 20 pressure acts, 11 disposals and 4 clearances. Lachie Plowman did a really strong job on Matera, he had 15 touches, 4 marks, 4 1%ers and a rebound 50. Jacob Weitering looks so composed, even when only touching the ball 11 times, he went t 81% efficiency, had 3 1%ers and 2 rebound 50's. Tom Williamson probably had his quietest game of the year, he had 7 touches, 2 marks, 3 1%ers and 3 clangers.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Oh I get the point about only having played 19 games. I just mean his points for each game are far worse than Plowman for example, Plowman's movements up the order always seem much more significant.

Player ratings twitter gives the points after each game per player. I post it in the autopsy thread each round. Marchbank is consistently in our bottom 5 - 10 players in ratings points scored. The player ratings metric doens't rate him yet. I'd guess he has too many clangers, which seem to cause an extraordinary large deduction in the ratings points. More I watch the champion data rating system the less I like it. Seems too 'shallow'.
They need to quantify impact and give it a weighting and include it. Kreuzer would be damn near to 10 in the comp then

Edit: Him being Marchbank in this case.

 

[SafeAsMilk]

Player ratings twitter gives the points after each game per player. I post it in the autopsy thread each round. Marchbank is consistently in our bottom 5 - 10 players in ratings points scored. The player ratings metric doens't rate him yet. I'd guess he has too many clangers, which seem to cause an extraordinary large deduction in the ratings points. More I watch the champion data rating system the less I like it. Seems too 'shallow'.
They need to quantify impact and give it a weighting and include it. Kreuzer would be damn near to 10 in the comp then

Edit: Him being Marchbank in this case.

I don't like how injured players drop so far. Murphy dropped about 100 places after his injury last year. His current rating doesn't reflect his form this year.

 

[Sector 7G]

Player ratings twitter gives the points after each game per player. I post it in the autopsy thread each round. Marchbank is consistently in our bottom 5 - 10 players in ratings points scored. The player ratings metric doens't rate him yet. I'd guess he has too many clangers, which seem to cause an extraordinary large deduction in the ratings points. More I watch the champion data rating system the less I like it. Seems too 'shallow'.
They need to quantify impact and give it a weighting and include it. Kreuzer would be damn near to 10 in the comp then
Edit: Him being Marchbank in this case.

Peter Wright was like the 4th best player on the weekend for his 9 disposals and a late goal. The system is rubbish

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Peter Wright was like the 4th best player on the weekend for his 9 disposals and a late goal. The system is rubbish

Somehow Gibbs wasn't in the top 5 despite having one of the greatest games of all time.

 

[TooBlue14]

Somehow Gibbs wasn't in the top 5 despite having one of the greatest games of all time.

Are you talking about this. Coz if so you're completely wrong. He had his best game (green) for the season.
Marchbank had a great first half but didn't touch it much in the second or when he did he either gave away a mark/free kick or incorrectly disposed of it.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

View attachment 384381
Are you talking about this. Coz if so you're completely wrong. He had his best game (green) for the season.
Marchbank had a great first half but didn't touch it much in the second or when he did he either gave away a mark/free kick or incorrectly disposed of it.

No i mean in terms of 5 "best performers" of the Round as listed on the Schick AFL player ratings.

If you go to the AFL website on desktop there is a box with the ratings on the bottom right hand side.

I think the best performers were Danger, Goldy and a couple of others. I have absolutely no idea how that system works.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

No i mean in terms of 5 "best performers" of the Round as listed on the Schick AFL player ratings.

If you go to the AFL website on desktop there is a box with the ratings on the bottom right hand side.

I think the best performers were Danger, Goldy and a couple of others. I have absolutely no idea how that system works.

I mentioned this in another thread somewhere. Goldy was top for the round and Gibbs eclipsed him in pretty much every category except hitouts.

EDIT: It becomes even harder to understand when Cam Pederson had the 2nd highest rating for the round when there were 12 people ahead of him for the game according to the fantasy points.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I mentioned this in another thread somewhere. Goldy was top for the round and Gibbs eclipsed him in pretty much every category except hitouts.

EDIT: It becomes even harder to understand when Cam Pederson had the 2nd highest rating for the round when there were 12 people ahead of him for the game according to the fantasy points.

I think it ties into like a rolling average the well. Even if you have an amazing game.. you wont rise by more than 10-12 unless your last (x) number of games have also been really good.

Its kind of like bowling. Where youre score is multiplied if you got a strike last week

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I think it ties into like a rolling average the well. Even if you have an amazing game.. you wont rise by more than 10-12 unless your last (x) number of games have also been really good.

Its kind of like bowling. Where youre score is multiplied if you got a strike last week

I know it's weighted for the overall total, but surely that doesn't apply to the single game score. It doesn't make sense either because Gibbs was great in his last outing, Goldy was about average before their bye and Pedersen was very average. An individual game score should be just that, a pure score, with weighting only applied to the rolling totals.
I did a quick comparison of each player's game and Gibbs shits all over them. It's not in the pic, but I also applied my own little rating to each stat and calculated the scores (was only a very basic rating and included negatives for clangers, turnovers and frees against) and came up very similar to the fantasy points.

 

[SafeAsMilk]

I know it's weighted for the overall total, but surely that doesn't apply to the single game score. It doesn't make sense either because Gibbs was great in his last outing, Goldy was about average before their bye and Pedersen was very average. An individual game score should be just that, a pure score, with weighting only applied to the rolling totals.
I did a quick comparison of each player's game and Gibbs shits all over them. It's not in the pic, but I also applied my own little rating to each stat and calculated the scores (was only a very basic rating and included negatives for clangers, turnovers and frees against) and came up very similar to the fantasy points.

View attachment 384636

Those 9 turnovers would reduced Gibbs' score significantly, I'd imagine.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Those 9 turnovers would reduced Gibbs' score significantly, I'd imagine.

I have no doubt, but that must be one hell of a reduction. Twice as many effective disposals as Goldy, 15 times more kicks (I believe kicks are rated better than handballs), twice as mane goals, 10 tackles to none, 7 i50s to none, 3 times as many pressure acts, 13 times more mtrs gained, more than four times as many uncont possies, more contested. They are BIG advantages. The only significant advantage Goldy had was hitouts, of which hitouts to advantage is probably the bigger scorer and he had 3 turnovers of his own. Those extra 6 turnovers for Bryce must have knocked at least 12+ points off.
If a turnover is worth roughly -2 points each, then they are saying that Goldy had a game worthy of 29.6 points if you take the turnovers away. No way was his game that good.

Cripps had a game earlier in the season that was ranked at about 32 points (and that's with 6 turnovers) and Gibbs' was better than that in most categories. The system is massively flawed and seems to get worse on a weekly basis.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I have no doubt, but that must be one hell of a reduction. Twice as many effective disposals as Goldy, 15 times more kicks (I believe kicks are rated better than handballs), twice as mane goals, 10 tackles to none, 7 i50s to none, 3 times as many pressure acts, 13 times more mtrs gained, more than four times as many uncont possies, more contested. They are BIG advantages. The only significant advantage Goldy had was hitouts, of which hitouts to advantage is probably the bigger scorer and he had 3 turnovers of his own. Those extra 6 turnovers for Bryce must have knocked at least 12+ points off.
If a turnover is worth roughly -2 points each, then they are saying that Goldy had a game worthy of 29.6 points if you take the turnovers away. No way was his game that good.

Cripps had a game earlier in the season that was ranked at about 32 points (and that's with 6 turnovers) and Gibbs' was better than that in most categories. The system is massively flawed and seems to get worse on a weekly basis.

Yep have no idea what these crackheads are running but its the only system we have