Bigfooty Aggregate Draft

[100action]

Decided to mess around with excel so I can make lists that aggregates drafts and variability lists. Why did I do this? I think averaging how posters value a player can perhaps offer a better indication of a player's ranking. Also we can get an indication on the variability of the pick associated with a player on bigfooty.

Note:
-Drafts from the following posters were used: Knightmare, Chris 25, Quigley, Snoop Dog, Bulldogsman, Foj1 2011
-Players that were selected with one posters draft but not in another poster's draft is automatically given a value of Pick 100.
-Entitled picks such as Scholarships and F/S taken out.
-Some phantom drafters may have adopted a needs basis priority for picks which may affect the accuracy of output to some degree.
-The following players were selected in all drafts:

Jonathan Patton
Stephen Coniglio
Chad Wingard*
Will Hoskin-Elliot
Dom Tyson
Elliot Kavanagh
Matthew Buntine*
Taylor Adams
Billy Longer
Adam Tomlinson*
Jordan Lockyer
Fraser McInnes
Nic Haynes
Toby Greene
Liam Sumner
Shane Kersten
Sam Frost
Sam Docherty
Sebastian Ross*
Devon Smith
Hayden Crozier*
Shane Nelson
Brandon Ellis
Todd Elton
Brad McKenzie*
Murray Newman
Zyrus Manson*
Daniel Markworth
Thomas Sheridan*
Mitchell Grigg*
Jackson Paine
Henry Schade

Aggregate Draft (Lowest Averaged pick in ascending order)

1 Stephen Coniglio
2 Jonathan Patton
3 Chad Wingard*
4 Dom Tyson
5 Will Hoskin-Elliot
6 Billy Longer
7 Matthew Buntine*
8 Elliot Kavanagh
9 Liam Sumner
10 Adam Tomlinson*
11 Taylor Adams
12 Toby Greene*
13 Shane Kersten
14 Sam Docherty
15 Brandon Ellis
16 Devon Smith
17 Brad McKenzie*
18 Hayden Crozier*
19 Todd Elton
20 Fraser McInnes
21 Nic Haynes
22 Sam Frost
23 Daniel Markworth
24 Jordan Lockyer
25 Mitchell Grigg*
26 Sebastian Ross*
27 Jackson Paine
28 Shane Nelson
29 Henry Schade
30 Thomas Sheridan*
31 Murray Newman
32 Zyrus Manson*
33 Myles Bolger
34 Andrew Boseley*
35 Michael Talia*
36 Alex Forster*
37 Tom Downie
38 Julian Dobosz
39 Haiden Schloithe*
40 Clay Smith*
41 Michael Bussey*
42 Josh Waldhuter
43 Jackson Merrett
44 Jordan Murdoch
45 Ben Brown*
46 Sam Kerridge
47 Marley Williams
48 Jack Newnes
49 Lee Spurr
50 Joel Hamling
51 Jack Crisp
52 Josh Tynan
53 Jimmy Webster*
54 Cameron Ellis Yolmen
55 Alex Woodward*
56 Bradley Hill
57 Lachlan Dalgeish
58 Tom Curran
59 Jordan Kelly
60 Josh Bootsma
61 Nic Murphy*
62 Nathan Blee
63 Brody Mihocek
64 Steven Verrier
65 Kyal Horsley*
66 Cam Eardley
67 Matthew Jacquier
68 Elliot Yeo
69 Corey Gault
70 Sam Gordon
71 Nic O’Brien
72 Mark Hutchings
73 Tom Sundberg
74 Fletcher Roberts
75 Xavier Richards
76 Michael Florio
77 Jack Frost
78 Tom Lee
79 Brandon Ah Chee
80 Kyle Hartigan
81 Jack Charleston
82 Jye Bolton*
83 Jackson Coleman
84 Max Duffy
85 Meyrick Buchanan
86 Kallan Geary
87 Brett O’Hanlon
88 Simon Turnbridge
89 Daniel Joseph
90 Jason Williams
91 Jai Sheahan
92 Jordan Wilson
93 Cameron Valentine
94 Sam Dwyer*
95 Lachlan Edwards
96 Justin Clarke
97 Jimmi Savage*
98 Steve Rusca
99 Lewis Hender
100 Luke Wilson
101 Michael Mascoulis
102 Mitch Brewer
103 Brett Eddy
104 Ben Darrou
105 Brad Mangan
106 Aseri Raikiwasa
107 Chad Sandilands
108 Darren Mitchington

Variation in ascending order (Standard Variation in 3rd Column)

-open image in new tab for a magnified view.

Variability Ranking in descending order

-What does this list tell you? I divide the average by the standard deviation, thus highly rated players with high standard deviations will give a low score, this list gives an indication of variability on highly rated players.

1 Murray Newman
2 Myles Bolger
3 Jonathan Patton
4 Nic Haynes
5 Andrew Boseley*
6 Zyrus Manson*
7 Michael Talia*
8 Alex Forster*
9 Josh Waldhuter
10 Toby Greene*
11 Jackson Merrett
12 Chad Wingard*
13 Matthew Buntine*
14 Tom Downie
15 Julian Dobosz
16 Elliot Kavanagh
17 Jordan Murdoch
18 Ben Brown*
19 Henry Schade
20 Joel Hamling
21 Liam Sumner
22 Clay Smith*
23 Haiden Schloithe*
24 Sam Kerridge
25 Sebastian Ross*
26 Josh Tynan
27 Marley Williams
28 Devon Smith
29 Michael Bussey*
30 Cameron Ellis Yolmen
31 Jack Crisp
32 Will Hoskin-Elliot
33 Fraser McInnes
34 Taylor Adams
35 Lachlan Dalgeish
36 Josh Bootsma
37 Nic Murphy*
38 Sam Frost
39 Lee Spurr
40 Bradley Hill
41 Jimmy Webster*
42 Jordan Kelly
43 Daniel Markworth
44 Jackson Paine
45 Jordan Lockyer
46 Tom Curran
47 Shane Kersten
48 Nathan Blee
49 Dom Tyson
50 Mitchell Grigg*
51 Stephen Coniglio
52 Alex Woodward*
53 Brandon Ellis
54 Adam Tomlinson*
55 Hayden Crozier*
56 Jack Newnes
57 Brody Mihocek
58 Brad McKenzie*
59 Jack Frost
60 Todd Elton
61 Brandon Ah Chee
62 Billy Longer
63 Kyal Horsley*
64 Kyle Hartigan
65 Thomas Sheridan*
66 Matthew Jacquier
67 Steven Verrier
68 Michael Florio
69 Jack Charleston
70 Elliot Yeo
71 Jye Bolton*
72 Meyrick Buchanan
73 Corey Gault
74 Kallan Geary
75 Sam Docherty
76 Mark Hutchings
77 Simon Turnbridge
78 Max Duffy
79 Sam Gordon
80 Tom Sundberg
81 Daniel Joseph
82 Fletcher Roberts
83 Xavier Richards
84 Jason Williams
85 Jai Sheahan
86 Cam Eardley
87 Jordan Wilson
88 Brett O’Hanlon
89 Shane Nelson
90 Tom Lee
91 Cameron Valentine
92 Sam Dwyer*
93 Lachlan Edwards
94 Jackson Coleman
95 Nic O’Brien
96 Justin Clarke
97 Jimmi Savage*
98 Steve Rusca
99 Lewis Hender
100 Luke Wilson
101 Michael Mascoulis
102 Mitch Brewer
103 Brett Eddy
104 Ben Darrou
105 Brad Mangan
106 Aseri Raikiwasa
107 Chad Sandilands
108 Darren Mitchington

 

[HARKER]

Mmmm, you're taking away my specialty.

Good work

 

[UpTheGuts]

Many thanks for your efforts here. Sincerely appreciated

Assumption of a linear scale 1-100 is problematic, but the only real option

Cheers

 

[Snoop Dog]

mate that is a really interesting and terrific read.

Couple of things I would be conscious of is that Foj1 and Quigley have stopped theirs around 40 to 50 (unfortunately) so would think that will impact it in some way possibly.

Equally there will be a bit of fine tuning up til Wednesday I suspect so if you recut it again maybe Wednesday at some stage be interested to see if it was any different.

If you wanted to get some more data series you could include the Big Footy Trial Run and the 'Real' one just completed.

Well done

 

[dlanod]

One request would be for you to print the averages next to the player at each pick. They often show different tiers of players.

 

[100action]

One request would be for you to print the averages next to the player at each pick. They often show different tiers of players.

here you go (open in new tab, BF stuffs up table formats)

I also decided to plot the picks vs average value

Interesting to see the curve flattens out in the latter part of the curve from about pick 65 onwards, this means bigfooty posters essentially think picks after this is extremely speculative and of not much value.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Quigley had Greene rated 7th or 8th from memory.

 

[100action]

Quigley had Greene rated 7th or 8th from memory.

ah, somehow I skipped him when I put the data in for Quigley's bit, edit in main post.

He is now ranked 12th with a 13.67 average and an 8.26 standard deviation.

 

[100action]

Lowest to Highest average of Players that did not get picked up:

1 Sam Frost
2 Shane Nelson
3 Zyrus Manson*
4 Myles Bolger
5 Andrew Boseley*
6 Julian Dobosz
7 Haiden Schloithe*
8 Michael Bussey*
9 Josh Waldhuter
10 Ben Brown*
11 Marley Williams
12 Lee Spurr
13 Jack Crisp
14 Lachlan Dalgeish
15 Nic Murphy*
16 Brody Mihocek
17 Steven Verrier
18 Kyal Horsley*
19 Cam Eardley
20 Matthew Jacquier
21 Mark Hutchings
22 Sam Gordon
23 Nic O’Brien
24 Tom Sundberg
25 Fletcher Roberts
26 Xavier Richards
27 Michael Florio
28 Jack Frost
29 Tom Lee
30 Kyle Hartigan
31 Jack Charleston

 

[tbetta]

Lowest to Highest average of Players that did not get picked up:

1 Sam Frost
2 Shane Nelson
3 Zyrus Manson*
4 Myles Bolger
5 Andrew Boseley*
6 Julian Dobosz
7 Haiden Schloithe*
8 Michael Bussey*
9 Josh Waldhuter
10 Jordan Murdoch
...

Murdoch was picked up at 48 I'm pretty sure

 

[100action]

Murdoch was picked up at 48 I'm pretty sure

fixed.

 

[AlibiMonday]

According to the aggregated phantom draft that 100action has done (sourced from Knightmare, Chris 25, Quigley, Snoop Dog, Bulldogsman, Foj1 2011), the post-analysis of the actual draft ranks which team was the most successful with regards to their available selections:

1.	Collingwood		1.74
2. 	Essendon		1.42
3. 	North Melbourne 	1.11
4.  	West Coast		1.04
5.  	Sydney			1.00
6.  	Port Adelaide		0.94
7.  	Richmond		0.69
8.  	Gold Coast		0.56
9.  	Adelaide		0.48
10. 	Hawthorn		0.37
11. 	Melbourne		0.33
12. 	St. Kilda		0.32
13. 	Geelong			0.30
14. 	W Bulldogs		0.29
15. 	Brisbane		0.22
16. 	GWS			0.20
17.   	Fremantle		0.17
18.	Carlton			0.15

The table illustrates that Collingwood got excellent value for their selections compared to Carlton. Does not take into account experienced players redrafted, father-son or rookie selections.

Take it as you will.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Pies picked sliders. Carlton picked bolters and a F/S with neutral value. Always was going to end with a bad rating

 

[Turbocat]

wasn't Nic Obrien p59 to ess?