Media Bob's Stats - The Free Kick Table For Season 30

[Tonga Bob]

I learned many things about the SFA last season:

• That it exists;
• That it's a community of many campaigners with many different personalities from all walks of life (and that's just TJASTA);
• That the sim is an evil sentient genius that, underneath its randomness has patterns that it forms;
• That RookieChat is a powerful force for good;
• That a representative team comprised primarily of midfielders caused the downfall of the Roman Empire;
• That producing stats-based threads is the key to winning bullshit awards.

So I'm throwing my hat into the ring and adding another string to the Bob's Franchisesᵀᴹ bow. Please welcome:


The first piece of statistical analysis that's been commissioned by Bob's Statistics is the Free Kick Table. Free kicks are a very emotive topic in football, however it seems that the 'random' nature of qootball displaces that emotion from umpires to the sim. One way to look at this is a free kick differential, which aggregates free kicks over a period of time and shows which teams receive more than others.

My Free Kick Table takes this one step further, and aggregates the impact of free kicks on a game-by-game basis to see who won the free kick count in each game. So pretty much what would happen if you replaced goals and points scored with free kicks received. My hypothesis is that even though there should be minimal variation in the overall aggregate of free kicks over a season, however the variation would be greater in the aggregation of free kick results per game over a season. Or to put it in terms that stats nerds will get a semi over:

H₀: Variation in overall FK aggregate = Variation in FK game result aggregation
H₁: Variation in overall FK aggregate ≠ Variation in FK game result aggregation

Trying to describe it in words is one thing, but an example would seal the deal right?



Thanks Heisenberg!

So to give you all an example of how it works, here's the Free Kick Table for season 29.


Legend:
Win: Number of games where team's free kicks > opposition's free kicks;
Draw: Number of games where team's free kicks = opposition's free kicks;
Loss: Number of games where team's free kicks < opposition's free kicks;
Points: Like a normal ladder - 4 points for a win, 2 points for a draw, 0 points for a loss;
For: Total number of free kicks received;
Against: Total number of free kicks conceded;
Diff: Differential between number of free kicks for and against;
Home: Free kick differential for games played at home;
Away: Free kick differential for games played away;
Win: Free kick differential for games won;
Loss: Free kick differential for games lost;
%: Differential expressed as a percentage;
Ladder Var: Variation between position in Free Kick Table and Official (Points Scored) Table.

My hot analytical takes on this are:

• Warriors were stone cold robbed, as were the Dragons & Bears to a lesser extent;
• Roys were kissed on the peen;
• Bombers & Gumbies were unable to convert free kick success to regular success;
• Furies were able to take advantage of the free kick support given, as were the Demons;
• Swamprats punched slightly above their weight;
• Royals weren't loved, either by the sim or themselves;
• Whoreks & Wonders were average.

"Yeah but what's under the covers, Bob?" I hear myself thinking you'll ask next. Well, glad we did. Here's the breakdown for each club:














How about them stats! Easy peasy, feelin' queasy.



So there's your baseline. Throughout season 30 I'll keep track on how the Free Kick Table is progressing, and will provide regular updates & analysis. Will the trends of season 29 continue? Or will the sim even things up?

Stay tuned, nerds.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Welcome back nerds.

As threatened, here's an update on the Free Kick Table after the opening round of matches.



Hot takes of the week:

• Roys are still kissed on the peen;
• Dragons overcame free kick adversity to prevail;
• Wonders were given a stepladder but fell off it;
• And the Gumbies grit their teeth...

It's still early days so there's no season specific trends yet, but they will come.

Finally, a big shout out to Gumbies rookie omgfridge for conceding seven (7) free kicks in your first match! Let's see you go one better (or worse really) this week.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Welcome back to the stats thread that's so good that Frank Sinatra unwittingly wrote a song about it. A thread so tough that stage 4 restrictions can't stop it. A thread so meaningless that nobody touched it in a week.

Here's the table:



This week's hot takes:

• Wonders are still not taking advantage of the 'West Coast advantage';
• Gumbies still being done dirty;
• Dragons remain the yang to the Wonders' yin;
• Swamprats' output on both sides of the ledger is a mood.

The variance between the match & free kick tables has blown out which, at this early juncture, shows that there is minimal correlation between the two. But the season is still young.



Final call out [places tin foil hat squarely on head] is the positive correlation between my starting this thread and the number of free kicks that I've conceded this season. Bastards are on to me.

------------	-------------	--------------------	------------
Rank	FA	Player	Team
1:	10	OMGFRIDGE	(GUM)
2:	8	TONGA BOB	(CIW)
3:	7	LJP86	(DRA)
4:	7	SERIAL_THR	(DRA)
5:	6	HATE	(FUR)
6:	6	FIRESTARTE	(SCS)
7:	6	SPUDDD	(GUM)
8:	5	BEEG	(CIW)
9:	5	MANNUMPOWE	(SCS)
10:	5	AKKAPS	(SCS)
------------	-------------	--------------------	------------

Righto, that's all for this week nerds. Until we meet again.

 

[Tonga Bob]

It's free kick time again nerds!

Let's take a Butcher's at the Free Kick Table after yesterday's round.



What does it all mean, Bob?

• The 'home ground advantage' for the Wonders & Roys continues, and for once the Wonders were able to capitalise on it;
• Winning a free kick count didn't help the Gumbies win a game of qooty;
• The Dragons' streak continues;
• There were at least 10 players that received more free kicks than the whole of the Swamprats total of three (3) frees, one of whom (Marlowe) received twice as many.

In terms of individuals excelling in the free kick stakes, Marlowe is joined by rookie Roy RobR atop the umpires' Christmas Card list, both earning 16 so far this season. On the other side of the ledger young Gumby omgfridge has his light still on, maintaining his lead after a stellar 8 free-kick-against debut to sit on 12 for the season. The other players in double figures for frees against are S29 shittrucks Tonga Bob (11) & serial_thrilla (10).

That's it for this week. Thanks for reading, and if you'd like to leave a comment for the SFA umpires then please feel free to click the below image.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Due to underwhelming demand, I'm here to update the Free Kick table for the past couple of rounds. This is what it looked like after round 4:



And this is how it changed for round 5:



So what have been the hot takes?

• The Wonders had a qooty win, but have lost the love from the qumpires;
• Roys are still kissed on the peen BIG TIME;
• We had our first draw in round 5 between the Warriors and the Swamprats, going to show that the free kicks not paid are equally as telling as those that are;
• lol Drags;
• The Bears and the Royals have won qooty matches the hard way;
• Gumbies are being surprisingly looked after, apart from the rookies.

Individually, it looks as though the poop of Marlowe, DemonJim & TheCoach16 still doesn't stink as they keep racking up the frees for. On the other side of the ledger, the top two of omgfridge & yours truly have slowed down their frees against work rate but still lead the qumpire shitlist, with fellow Gumby rookie Spuddd jumping up to third.

That's all for this week, nerds. I know I'm not the only one who cannot wait to see what the yellow maqqots dish up this in round six.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Oh, it's free kick analysis you want?

COME GET Y'ALL JUICE!!





The hot takes:

• Warriors take the lead despite having the seventh best FK differential;
• Best differential remains with the Roys, Wonders and Bombers;
• Royals still doing the needful without any qumpire assistance;
• Drags continue to play on an ancient Indian burial ground.

Individually, the milk and honey keeps being given to DemonJim, TheCoach16 & Marlowe, while Agent93 is beginning to find favour with the qumpires - the cheque must have cleared. Meanwhile in purgatory, MannumPower has joined omgfridge and I on the misbehavers' podium.

Riveting as heck, ay?

 

[Tonga Bob]

Bad Free Kick content:



Good Free Kick content:



My hot takes:

• Dragons popped their cherry in a win over the Bad News Bears;
• Warriors still on top despite a negative FK differential;
• Bombers are making a run, with a hefty FK differential of +26;
• There's actually not much affirmation noise around Sweet, judging by which teams have better FK results at home vs away, so well done to the crowds at the BJO (+31), Dragon Island (+14), Van Cortlandt Park (+13), House o' Gumby (+5) & the Hippodrome (+2) for having an effect on the qumpires;
• Most teams have a positive correlation between winning qooty & receiving free kicks, with the Furies best off thanks to a victory/defeat differential of +26. The Royals (-12) & Hawks (-11) are the exception.

Usual suspects are doing the needful individually. DemonJim & TheCoach16 are still doing what they please and pleasing who they do, each getting 27 free kicks for. Agent93 and Marlowe are also well loved by the men in yellow. Meanwhile MannumPower has joined newly-appointed Gumbies captain & Torch nominee omgfridge as the hard luck stories here thanks to a league-leading 18 free kicks against, with yours truly on the bronze step of the podium.

Let's see old mate have his bollocks kicked again:



Yikes!

 

[Tonga Bob]

Hi nerds. We're half way through the season, so what's going on in the dynamic world of the Free Kick Table? Have yourselves a butcher's at this:



This week's hot takes are:

• The Bombers have hit the lead;
• Warriors clinging onto second, however the Roys, Wonders & Gumbies (if they win the free kick count against the Wazzas this week) are hot on their heels;
• Dragons are still stone motherless last;
• No real change to home vs away or victory vs defeat correlation to last week;
• The variance in team positions between the free kick & game result ladders is exactly 5.

As an added season's half-time bonus, please enjoy a visualisation of how the free kick ladder positions have changed over the season to date (promise it won't take you to a Rick Astley video this time!!):

SFA Season 30 Free Kick Ladder

A Flourish data visualisation by Tonga Bob

public.flourish.studio

Righto then, that's enough statistics for you. On to the second half of the season!!

 

[Tonga Bob]

ME: Hello darkness, my old friend.

DARKNESS: new account who dis?

Welcome back to the driest thread in Christendom. Here is the latest free kick ladder:



I get it though, reading stats can be confusing:



So I'll make the summary short and sweet.

Team wise the qumpires love the Bombers and Roys, hate the Dragons and are indifferent to everyone else.

Individually, TheCoach16 has pulled away from the pack of DemonJim, Agent93 & Marlowe in getting free kicks; while MannumPower is now clearly the most hated player in the qumpires' eyes, followed by other felons omgfridge & serial_thrilla.

Finally, the statistical quirk of the round was in the Warriors-Gumbies match, where the score margin and the free kick margin was both one (1). This shows that the sim has a sense of humour, thus proving its sentience.

I've said too much.

 

[Tonga Bob]

 

[Tonga Bob]

Is this thing still on? Haha oh dear.

Well there's been a little bit of change on the Free Kick Table since we last spoke. Not much mind you, but some. Here's what it looks like after round 12:



What are the hot takes?

• Bombers, Roys & Wonders are teams that are still favoured by the qumpires;
• Dragons & Demons not so much, though the flying lizards notched their second win and can still theoretically Drag themselves off the foot of the table (see what I did there???);
• Ladder variance tells us that the Dragons are doing well on-field despite a lack of love from the qumps, while the Wonders are looking a proverbial gift horse in the mouth;
• The current run of qooty victories from the Gumbies is matched by a run of free kick wins, so it seems GWS Goose's bribery gameplan seems to be bearing fruit;
• The free kick differentials are doing a pretty good job of matching the head-to-head free kick results;
• The 125-point victory by the Warriors over the Hawks in round 12 came despite losing the free kick count 22-25.

This graph highlights the settling of table movement over past three rounds. Check out the straight lines from about round 10 onwards:



Shifting focus to the individual results, it's pretty much same same from last time as well. TheCoach16 has the greatest rub of the green*, while ClarkeM, RobR, Agent93 & Marlowe are all in the 40+ category. On the other side of the ledger, MannumPower stinks, serial_thrilla has joined early offender omgfridge, and ever since moving to the wing FootyGuy13 has been cutting my lunch by conceding the free kicks that I used to concede.

There you go nerds. How do you like them qapples?













*Qumpire Green just f*cken loves being rubbed, in case you were wondering.

 

[Tonga Bob]

*telephone noises*

Oh yes hi, is that the Trademark Office? I would like one trademark please.

Huh? What for? For the work Freek.



Yes, Freek. It's slang for a really good graph about free kicks, which the Young Adults would describe as [does the quotation marks thing in the air with my fingers] fleek. So it's a fleek free kick graph, or freek for short.

No, totally not a spelling mistake haha.

[sweating nervously]

That's approved? OK I'll just test it.

Freekᵀᴹ.

Yep it works. Thanks for your help.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Hey nerds, Bob here again.

Another round done and dusted for the season, what does the Freekᵀᴹ Kick table tell us?



Interesting fact - five of the six victorious qooty teams in round 13 won both the match and the free kick count, and the sixth one (Furies) drew their free kick count.

There's been a little bit of change in the squiggle graph:



The Bombers dropped two spots from the top of the ladder after submitting to the Hawks, and some teams have swapped in the bottom half of the ladder.

I want to focus on one team this time though - the Gumbies. For the first two rounds, the Plasticinies were last on the Free Kick Table. After relinquishing the infamous position to the Dragons, they rose up to mid-table. After round six, they had won a single game of qooty and were 3 wins & 3 losses in the free kick table for a -11 differential. Then this happened:



The Gumbies went on a seven match winning streak on the field and, apart from a draw in round 11, won the free kick count in each of those rounds. This has propelled them to the top of the Free Kick Ladder, and has given them a differential of +38 between victories and defeats, easily the best in the league despite only having the fourth best overall free kick differential.

So what does that mean? Well, there's two things:

1) You don't need to have a massively positive free kick differential to be doing well at qooty,
2) Whoever at the Gumbies coined the tagline #lasttofirst needs to tell me what this week's Lotto numbers are, because that's exactly what the Gumbies have achieved in the Free Kick Ladder! Well done Gumbies.

There's your hot take for the week, which begs the question to be asked of the simmers:

 

[Tonga Bob]

Righto nerds, let's get kicking.



In further proof that the sim is sentient, it has paid attention to my analysis last week on how the Gumbies' winning streak had coincided with a run of favourable free kick counts and has made a correction in response. Sorry Gumbies.



Free kick losses for both the Gumbies & Roys have allowed the Babylonians to jump back to the top of the ladder, while the Hawks overtook the Swamprats with the Royals also sneaking through the door that the Hawks opened.

From an individual perspective, TheCoach16 has taken a lead of 5 frees for, proving that under the gruff exterior is a big softy. Rookie Roy RobR and Hawk head honcho (how's that for elite alliteration?) Agent93 make up the podium, closely followed by ClarkeM, Marlowe and Mobbs fancy ant555. MannumPower continues to aggravate the qumpires more than any other player, while serial_thrilla and FootyGuy13 are not quite as aggravating but still pretty annoying. Previous free kick shittrucks omgfridge and yours truly are still in the mix, as are SM, Kapow!!! and JackNah_8.

There's your free kick fix for the week. Soak it in.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Welcome back to the SFA version of a lifeless void, filled only by the sound of my typing.



Yup.

Anyhoo, here's the Free Kick Table after the penultimate round of season 30:



The only change has been the Hawks & Royals swapping places.

It's still tight at the top. It's mathematically possible for any of the first 5 teams to finish the season on top of the ladder and claim The Silver Whistle trophy, although the superior percentages of the Bombers (who play the Wonders in an 8-pointer) and the Roys (who play the stone motherless Dragons) have a distinct advantage. Then there's a group of three teams (Warriors/Hawks/Royals) in the middle, although the Sin Citizens could overtake the Gold Citizens and the Bears to move ahead of the Swamprats. The bottom two are set in stone though, with the Demons and Dragons officially 11th and 12th respectively. Nothing wrong with a wooden spoon I reckon *nervous laughter*

Individually, the races for the Little Spoon trophy for most frees for and the Big Spoon for most frees against are both tight af. TheCoach16 is one free kick ahead of RobR, while both Agent93 and ClarkeM can still realistically overtake them. The other end of the spectrum has seen a certain Polynesian storm back to the top after earning the ire of the qumpires four times in last round's 14-25 free kick pummeling by the Furies (shout out to Kabanna who led the way in that match with a whopping six frees against!!). One kick behind is previous leader MannumPower, while Warriors numbers man FootyGuy13 another kick further back in third place. There are an astonishing nine other players within 5 kicks of the lead, including serial_thrilla Bastyy Kapow!!! SM Chipmunk The Jesus Hate JackNah_8 and early leader omgfridge (go season 29 rookies!!).

One more week nerds. One more week.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Here we are nerds, the final round of season 30, and I'm making like Major Kong and riding this bomb all the way to its fiery conclusion. There's three posts remaining to wrap up this thread - the round 16 analysis, the end-of-season team analysis, and the awards presentation. Let's get to it.



Well, the Bombers blew it. They may have won the qooty match, but they lost the free kick count. The qooty victory helped us avoid the wooden spoon though, so I'll forgive them. Still, all they had to do was to either win or draw their free kick count against the 4th-placed Wonders, but they fell short by one solitary free kick.

This opened the door for the Gumbies and the Roys to overtake them. For the Roys this was a fait accompli as they were up against the Dragons, who have been on the bottom of the free kick table since round 3. The sim kept it close but, like the Bombers, the Drags lost the free kick count by one meaning the Roys overtook the Bombers.

Which left the Gumbies. After their #lasttofirst heroics in round 13, a shock free kick loss against the Bears saw them drop to second place. Away to the mid-table Gold Citizens in the final round, things were tight. The free kick count was even. The Bombers-Wonders game had ended, if the free kicks stood as is, Baghdad would triumph.

Then there was a series of three whistle blows from the Golden Throne.

*extreme Martin Tyler voice* "qumpIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIRE! *dramatic pause* I SWEAR YOU'LL NEVER SEE ANYTHING LIKE THIS EVER AGAIN! SO WATCH IT! DRINK IT IN!"

"THEY'VE JUST HEARD THE NEWS AT ABDU PRISON!"



And with that, the Gumbies pulled off a famous victory, bouncing back to claim the Silver Whistle for Season 30. Last season's winners the Roys came in second and the Bombers dropped to third, equal on points with the Wonders and the Furies. Previous leaders Coney Island dropped back to sixth, ahost of teams remained in mid table for the duration of the season, and the Demons & Dragons sat on the foot of the table for God knows how long.

From an individual perspective it was a similar story. Bombers stalwart TheCoach16 was heading into the final round with a slim lead in the frees for race. However it was Royboy RobR who played the Nick Faldo to TheCoach16's Greg Norman and ducked enough to get the required free kicks, with Agent93 and ClarkeM in third and fourth positions.

Finally who was the only person or team not to squander a lead in the final round? This guy:



I managed to finish two free kicks against in front of long-time leader MannumPower, with fellow S29 alumni serial_thrilla and Bastyy joining rookie sensation FootyGuy13 in third place.

The individual top 10's looked like this:

Frees For:

Rank	Frees For	Player	Team
1:	55	RobR	(ROY)
2:	54	TheCoach16	(BOM)
3:	53	Agent93	(HAW)
4:	52	ClarkeM	(WON)
5:	49	Marlowe	(GCR)
6:	47	serial_thrilla	(DRA)
7:	47	ant555	(SCS)
8:	44	Norma Lee Ava	(FUR)
9:	44	Nunez	(SCS)
10:	42	Doctor Colossus	(CIW)

Frees Against:

Rank	Frees Against	Player	Team
1:	27	Tonga Bob	(CIW)
2:	25	MannumPower	(SCS)
3:	24	serial_thrilla	(DRA)
4:	24	FootyGuy13	(CIW)
5:	24	Bastyy	(FUR)
6:	23	tony	(LVB)
7:	23	zackah	(CIW)
8:	23	SM	(HAW)
9:	23	Chipmunk	(HAW)
10:	23	The Jesus	(HAW)

That's the rundown on what happened after 16 rounds of free kick counts. In the penultimate post we'll go through the team analysis.

Absolute cliffhanger, aye?

 

[Tonga Bob]

Alright nerds, are you ready for some statistical analysis?

*cricket noises*

I said, ARE YOU READY FOR SOME STATISTICAL ANALYSISSSSSSSSS?

*cricket noises intensify*

Aw yeah!!

Time to look at what the free kick count for season 30 meant for the teams as a group. Let's begin with a moving squiggle graph of how the ladder positions changed over the course of the season.

SFA Season 30 Free Kick Ladder

A Flourish data visualisation by Tonga Bob

public.flourish.studio

Looks awesome if you're using a monitor, but average on a mobile. So here's a static picture for you:



What's interesting here is the mirroring of the top half and bottom half of the table. In each instance, after some variation in the first part of the season, the top three teams in each half of the table kept moving around while the bottom three remained stable.

Let's now take a look at free kick differentials. I'll start by putting the complete free kick table here for reference:



First up let's look at overall free kicks:



Hot takes from this:

• Gumbies may not have had most frees for or the biggest positive differential, but their ability to get more free kicks than their direct match day opponents really helped their climb up the ladder;
• The biggest net differential was with the Dragons, with a whopping -47;
• Receiving the most free kicks overall doesn't make a lot of difference when you also concede the most free kicks, as the Warriors found out.

Next we'll look at the the differentials of free kicks earned at playing at home vs playing away to see who plays better where; whether there's any home ground advantages or affirmation biases within the SFA:



Hot takes:

• For home ground advantage, it's the BJO first and daylight second. The crowds at Abdu Prison and the House of Gumby also sway the qumpires, with Van Cortlandt Park and the hippodrome the only other grounds with a positive home free kick count;
• Qumpires hate climbing mountains and eyries, visiting lairs, sitting on thrones or going underground;
• They also take pity on the Wonders, Hawks and Bombers when they play away from home, all of whom have double digit positive free kick totals playing away from home. The Furies, Gumbies and Swamprats are the other teams with positive results while travelling;
• The Dragons, Warriors, Bears and Royals grit their teeth on their travels;
• The Roys (thanks to BLUEALLTHRU's barwork) and Warriors (courtesy of the Whore Tree) really enjoy the comforts of home;
• The negative free kick differentials of the Hawks, Wonders, Demons and Swamprats show that they are pretty good at harnessing an 'us against the world' mentality.

The last one is the free kick differentials between qooty victories and defeats. This should tell us whether free kicks influence qooty matches:



Tomas calientes:

• The Roys, Bombers, Gumbies and Furies are all > +20 in free kicks received in games where they won the qooty result. They are all playing finals this season. Coincidence?
• The Bears, Demons and Warriors had similar-sized free kick differentials between victories and defeats, however the free kicks they conceded in defeats saw them further down the qooty ladder and either just scrape into finals or miss out completely. Also coincidence?
• The positive free kick differentials in qooty defeats for the Wonders and Hawks show that despite the best efforts of the qumpires, neither team were actually good enough to capitalise on the support received. They finished bottom two on the qooty ladder. Coincidence yet?
• Free kicks made no real difference to the results of the Dragons, Swamprats or Royals.

How freaking awesome is that?



I know right?

The next bunch of posts will be the breakdown of free kicks for each club. Does that excite you?

 

[Tonga Bob]

TheCoach16 cadsky kickthething Pugsley MITS Santoz SammaGilberto CALL ME SNAKE Antonio BlueVein

 

[Tonga Bob]

Doctor Colossus TheInjuryFactory harry000 Raveneyes FootyGuy13 zackah BEEG

 

[Tonga Bob]

serial_thrilla A Swallow Strigoi Bradesmaen Ljp86 HawkAussie VandoHawk T2B_ AceAndy

 

[Tonga Bob]

DemonJim Callums_Guns Van_Dyke Proper Gander moginie jmoo wan boncer34 manangatang

 

[Tonga Bob]

Agent93 Chipmunk The Jesus Loonerty TY24 Drunkgoliath SM eth-dog

 

[Tonga Bob]

Norma Lee Ava Hate JackBero Mister M Ned_Flanders Tigerturbulance Bastyy

 

[Tonga Bob]

Marlowe Paddles_ nahnah GreyCrow CakeEater Kapow!!! brahj The Filth Wizard

 

[Tonga Bob]

Riviat GWS Goose cats2rise omgfridge Taylor Spuddd beez TalkingFootyNow1223 Barrybran