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Box Challenge

  • Thread starter Thread starter IcTrix
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IcTrix

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Looks fun. Although the odds arent really in your favour gives you something to watch like Jockey Challenges.

Gone Box 1 at The Gardens @ $4.50, Traralgon Box 8 @ $3.80 and Geelong tonight with Box 6 @ $7.50 and multied them incase i can bag 2 or 3 ;)
 
Saw this last friday night. Went box 1 which was 4.50. Mate had box 8 which was $8. Box 8 got up. Its a good bet type imo.
 
In lots of pain at Traralgon. Box 1 is clear with 11 pts verse Box 8 with 7. Should bag winner of Race 8 but need some luck home.

Gardens is looking good. Box 1 is on 10, with Box 6 on 7 and 4 and 5 on 6. As long as BERTA does not win Race 8, I think its going to get home at $4.50.

Update Thru Race 8.

Traralgon Box 1 - 12, Box 8 - 10. Highly unlikely with 2 good runs home due to DEVIL's CHAOS in the last.

Gardens Box 1 - 10, Box 6 - 9. A really good chance of scoring points in the 9th with near no chance in the last whilst the 6 has no chance of scoring in the 9th and a fair in the last. Pretty confident here.

I like this format ;)
 
Demon3 said:
Saw this last friday night. Went box 1 which was 4.50. Mate had box 8 which was $8. Box 8 got up. Its a good bet type imo.
Click to expand...

Box 8 has a really good book of dogs at Wenty ;). Paying $4
 

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Pfft. Just like jockey challenges you get screwed in the last leg :(. Losing by 1 at Gardens and 2 at Traralgon :(
 
Tonight's box challenge is for Sandown Park. If my data extraction is correct, from Jan-11 to May-11, here are the stats of the boxes whenever it lands a place (1,2,3):

1 16%
2 15%
3 13%
4 11%
5 10%
6 10%
7 11%
8 13%

Box 1 @ $2
Box 2 @ $4

Seems to match up given the stats above....
 
Box one has been backed into $1.85. Seems far too short.

Box 4 is great value at $10 and I am on that one. It finishes the card off with some good chances. Only can see one race I doubt has any chance of poling points and thats the 4th. Even then, that greyhound bobbed up at 20-1 last start in a fairly hot field at Sale.

Dapto challenge has Box one at $7.00 and thats juicy enough for me.

Not the strongest line up throughout the night but it starts with a bang with 2 very good chances in races 1 and 2. Mid meeting it has two more gold chances with 6 and 7. And a few smokeys who could surprise and poll in those lull stages.
 
Mocked it. Late scratching Box 1 at Dapto, Late scratching Box 4 at Sandown. FML.
 
IcTrix said:
Box one has been backed into $1.85. Seems far too short.

Box 4 is great value at $10 and I am on that one. It finishes the card off with some good chances. Only can see one race I doubt has any chance of poling points and thats the 4th. Even then, that greyhound bobbed up at 20-1 last start in a fairly hot field at Sale.

Dapto challenge has Box one at $7.00 and thats juicy enough for me.

Not the strongest line up throughout the night but it starts with a bang with 2 very good chances in races 1 and 2. Mid meeting it has two more gold chances with 6 and 7. And a few smokeys who could surprise and poll in those lull stages.
Click to expand...

:thumbsd::thumbsd::thumbsd:

Two seconds again. Analysis spot on, but no cigar. Box 4 shipped the last 2 races at Sandown and Box 1 shipped the first 2 races at Dapto, however late scratchings and a crucial normal scratching I missed in Race 6 at Dapto cost me badly.

Tomorrow we try again :(
 
Thanks for sharing your thoughts IcTrix.
Will try to post stats for tomorrow's challenges.

Live to bet another day! :)
 
No markets up yet, but Box 1 at Traralgon is a lock. It should be around $1.20, so when markets come up, anything over should be considered value and used as anchors in all multi's. Or big unit players straight out.
 

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Interesting challenge at Geelong today where the market is close to correct. Again, the red box has been favoured in the market but I have 3 boxes fighting it out very close to each other in the order of Box 7,Box 1 and then Box 6. With that being said, the #7 represents great value.

Alot will rely on Oh Watta Nite in Race 5. It will be a raging favourite an automatic 3 points for most people trying to predict this, but it is a much harder race than it looks.

2 units on Box 7 @ $4
2 units on Box 1 @ $2.50
1 unit on Box 6 @ $6.50

I cannot see any other box saluting tonight. So it comes down to correct wagering. If box 1 does prevail, break even it is, but either other result, will show a profit.

EDIT : Push for Box 7 has it straight away in from $4 to $3.80.

Traralgon has Box 1 at $1.30. As they say. Money for Jam. Included following multi's.

1 unit Trar B1/Geelong Box 7 @ 4.94
1 unit Trar B1/Geelong Box 1 @ 3.38
.5 unit Trar B1/Geelong Box 6 @ 9.10

Gardens Shortly
 
Well. Box 6 and Box 1 look to have a stranglehold on The Gardens meetings. There is quite a large gap to the rest of the boxes in my predicator headed by 2 and 4.

2 units on Box 6 @ $5.00
2 units on Box 1 @ $3.00

Have also included these multi's as well.

1 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 1 @ $3.90
1 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 6 @ $6.50

1 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 1/Geelong Box 1 @ 10.14
.5 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 1/Geelong Box 6 @ 27.30
1 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 1/Geelong Box 7 @ 14.82
1 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 6/Geelong Box 1 @ 16.90
.4 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 6/Geelong Box 6 @ 45.50
.5 unit Trar Box 1/Gardens Box 6/Geelong Box 7 @ 24.70
 
Another tight finish home.

Thru 7 of 10 at Geelong :

B1 - 7, B3 - 7, B4 - 6, B6 - 6, B7 - 8(2 4ths), B8 - 7

Run home looks fairly even. Box 8 has a great chance in the 8th but ordinary last 2, whereas B6 and B7 have two good chances into the last. Box 1 could win the 8th as well. Key will definitely be next race.

Thru 7 of 10 at Gardens :

B1 - 7, B2 - 5, B3 - 9, B4 - 6, B6 - 5, B7 - 6, B8 - 7.

The currently leader in Box 3 has 3 terrible chances leading home so that 2 point lead is less intimidating then it looks. Box 6 recording just 1pt as a $1.40 favourite in race 3 cost it a chance of winning so it looks as though Box 1 is the go and with the odds on favourite in the 8th, could go straight to the lead and put it beyond doubt.
 
Whilst I'm sitting here in the office by myself waiting for sh!t to run before heading home, I'll have a look at my sheets and see if I can fashion some sort of market.

I've got no idea who this market is with so won't be cross-referencing anything. I'll do Wenty (6.38pm start), Traralgon (7.10pm) and Mandurah (9.09pm) and see what I can fashion.

Obviously Wenty will be posted after R1 so I can get howled down for after-timing, but we'll see what comes of it...
 
And my ratings have Wenty R1 something like:

4 - 3.0
8 - 3.1
3 - 5.0
1 - 14.5
Little hope (2)
No hope (5), (6), (7)

This will be reflected in the market I end up with. That should keep the after-timers happy.
 
I havent taken any Multi's with Wentworth Park, but the favourite way at box 3 $3.80 looks the goods. All bar one race, it has serious poling chances with 8 of 9, serious winning chances.

Solo 2 units on Box 3 @ $3.80. Forgot to multi with Traralgon. Crucial mistake.

They dont do Box challenge on Mandurah I believe...
 

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Looking at a pretty sick ending to todays challenges...

Geelong.

Box 1 - 11pts, Box 4 - 10pts and Box 7 - 11pts.

Just need to avoid the 4 outpoling the other 2. Simple right?. Would prefer the 7 to win though.

Gardens.

Sigh. The red just got ran down in R9 which would of all but secured the challenge heading into the final race. Instead, I need to rely on the red to minimally outscore the check by 1, which I am not confident on.

Box 1 - 10pts, Box 2 - 11pts, Box 3 - 9pts
 
Traralgon - 10 Units on Box 1 @ $1.40.

Outrageously good odds on a lock. Free monies.
 
Sigh. Dejavu from last week. Last two races kill me. Needed the $2.50 favourite to place and could not even place. Luckily, the chopped #1 result will soften the loss. :( Pretty painful.
 
IcTrix said:
I havent taken any Multi's with Wentworth Park, but the favourite way at box 3 $3.80 looks the goods. All bar one race, it has serious poling chances with 8 of 9, serious winning chances.

They dont do Box challenge on Mandurah I believe...
Click to expand...

I've got no idea of the site your quoting (or R1 results actually), but my market order would've been:

1 - 8 - 3 - 2/4 (two would've been shorter not running R3) - 7/6/5 (no real chance).
 
Jan Juc said:
I've got no idea of the site your quoting (or R1 results actually), but my market order would've been:

1 - 8 - 3 - 2/4 (two would've been shorter not running R3) - 7/6/5 (no real chance).
Click to expand...

TAB Sportsbet
 
:thumbsu::thumbsu:

Success at both Wenty and Traralgon finally after some horrid last race luck last few weeks :(
 

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