Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Demontim275]

I like how Hawthorn supporters on here are getting advice on all things rebuild from Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne, Carlton and Essendon fans on all things list management when those 5 Victorian clubs have only won 2 Premierships between them since 2000.

Why does this fallacy get trotted out?

You can have a valid opinion on a topic, and still support a shit team. Despite you seeming to think that aupporters of shit clubs did the recruiting

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Meanwhile you trade more than just a first round pick for Wingard, and while he's more likely to be a good pick-up, he has maybe 4-5 years of elite footy left and potentially injury-prone.
Instead of taking a first rounder + 3 second rounders to the 2016 draft, which would've given you the chance to bring 4 potentially very good players to build a foundation on (remember 2001?) you splurge it all on O'Meara, a guy who to this day, is not a great kick, and like Wingard, has injury concerns.

O'meara was a gamble... And also close to the most talented young player to ever come in to the AFL. I have not argued risks involved... We also got a player in O'meara who has played almost every game for 2 years now and hopefully still has more room to grow.

Wingard had an injury interrupted season but he isn't injury prone like you are trying to paint. He played 19 games in his first season and since then played 24, 24, 22, 18, 19, 21. He has been consistently playing almost every game over the course of his career. He has been durable and hopefully will get back to that this season.

We go down the full rebuild we also don't get Mitchell for a massive bargain as well. You win some you lose some.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Why does this fallacy get trotted out?

You can have a valid opinion on a topic, and still support a shit team. Despite you seeming to think that aupporters of shit clubs did the recruiting

I agree but i would also say as Demon fan you would surely understand the risk of committing to a full rebuild. Not a shot at the Demons but the supposed 'right way' to rebuild has led to an awful decade at the bottom for the Demons. I think you should see why Hawks recruiters may have tried a rebuild model that can avoid going down a possible similar path.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I agree but i would also say as Demon fan you would surely understand the risk of committing to a full rebuild. Not a shot at the Demons but the supposed 'right way' to rebuild has led to an awful decade at the bottom for the Demons. I think you should see why Hawks recruiters may have tried a rebuild model that can avoid going down a possible similar path.

melbourne is in a much better position than hawthorn, list wise

 

[sr36]

Yeah look, imma let you finish, but I would almost garauntee that if we went back to January we’d find you posting that “Hawthorn are cooked with Mitchell going down”.

For Hawthorn, 9th is cooked. I can't believe I'm seeing the day when the Hawks are content with 9th. That's St Kilda or Fremantle thinking.

 

[schmuttt]

On this, just did a ranking of the average and median ages for B&F Top 10's. Here they are:

Average:

Geelong	27.7​
North Melbourne	27.7​
West Coast	26.8​
Adelaide	26.7​
Richmond	26.54545​
Brisbane Lions	26.3​
Collingwood	26.3​
Carlton	26​
Hawthorn	25.9​
Fremantle	25.2​
Gold Coast	24.9​
GWS	24.9​
Essendon	24.7​
Port Adelaide	24.7​
Sydney	24.7​
St Kilda	24.3​
Western Bulldogs	24.3​
Melbourne	23.6​

Richmond would rank 3rd with an average age of 27 if you took out one of the players that finished equal 10th.

Median:

Geelong	28​
North Melbourne	28​
Adelaide	27​
Richmond	27​
West Coast	27​
Hawthorn	26.5​
Brisbane Lions	26​
Carlton	26​
Collingwood	26​
Gold Coast	26​
Fremantle	25.5​
Essendon	25​
GWS	24.5​
Port Adelaide	24​
Western Bulldogs	24​
St Kilda	23.5​
Sydney	23.5​
Melbourne	23​

So yeah, they don't fare as badly as what you otherwise might assume.

So dees fans can play the youth card again?

 

[theBigB]

O'meara was a gamble... And also close to the most talented young player to ever come in to the AFL. I have not argued risks involved... We also got a player in O'meara who has played almost every game for 2 years now and hopefully still has more room to grow.

Well, that's wrong.
As for injuries, well, he hasn't quite developed into the player people thought he'd be after his first two years at GC. For all anyone knows, his two knee injuries may affect him for the rest of his career, similar to Adam Cooney after 2008.

Wingard had an injury interrupted season but he isn't injury prone like you are trying to paint. He played 19 games in his first season and since then played 24, 24, 22, 18, 19, 21. He has been consistently playing almost every game over the course of his career. He has been durable and hopefully will get back to that this season.

Maybe so, but soft tissue injuries are still concerning in general, and he isn't getting any younger.

We go down the full rebuild we also don't get Mitchell for a massive bargain as well. You win some you lose some.

Who said you couldn't get Mitchell? Last time I checked, there was no rule saying rebuilding clubs couldn't land big trades. Carlton brought in Chris Judd right after winning the spoon.

 

[schmuttt]

I like how Hawthorn supporters on here are getting advice on all things rebuild from Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne, Carlton and Essendon fans on all things list management when those 5 Victorian clubs have only won 2 Premierships between them since 2000.

I’m not sure if you’ve realised but the team you support being successful doesn’t grant you magical footy knowledge powers, nor does it do the opposite for shit sides.

 

[Foucault1989]

I’m not sure if you’ve realised but the team you support being successful doesn’t grant you magical footy knowledge powers, nor does it do the opposite for shit sides.

Um yes it does. 4thorn and stuff. They are the best and they'll never stop reminding us inferior supporters.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

melbourne is in a much better position than hawthorn, list wise

They just spent 10 years at the bottom of the table for one good year to end up 2nd last the following year... If that is what rebuilding 'the right way' gets you i am pretty happy with what we are doing to be honest.

 

[Marcel Proust]

They just spent 10 years at the bottom of the table for one good year to end up 2nd last the following year... If that is what rebuilding 'the right way' gets you i am pretty happy with what we are doing to be honest.

you keep referring to the past with almost every post

 

[Demontim275]

I agree but i would also say as Demon fan you would surely understand the risk of committing to a full rebuild. Not a shot at the Demons but the supposed 'right way' to rebuild has led to an awful decade at the bottom for the Demons. I think you should see why Hawks recruiters may have tried a rebuild model that can avoid going down a possible similar path.

Wasn’t commenting on any of that. Just the dumb comment that fans of shit clubs are somehow unable to discuss footy.
It’s not the style of rebuild that works. It’s who runs it

 

[Pessimistic]

Also, just for the record, as much as everyone likes to think their recruiters are geniuses, drafting is still a guessing game for the most part, particularly in the later end of the draft. This is a point I see commonly made by Hawthorn supporters while defending their trading policy, and it's true, but it begs the question: was landing guys like Worpel, Sicily and Hardwick all part of Clarko's master plan? Did he envision selecting Worpel when endorsing the idea of trading the kitchen sink for O'Meara?

Consider the following: What if instead of Hardwick, they got Aidyn Johnson (who went a pick later to Port)? Instead of Worpel, they got Ben Paton. Instead of Sicily, they got Brady Grey. Chances are, their 2019 season would've finished a lot worse than 9th, and they'd still have the oldest list in the competition.

"But we selected Worpel, Sicily and Hardwick! That shows just how good our recruiters are!"
And how are you so sure much of that didn't come down to luck? Each one of those players could've gone one selection earlier, and had that happened, there's a strong chance we enter a scenario where Clarko/Sheedy comparisons start to gain some serious steam.

History says exclusively relying on later picks for your intake of youth is extremely unreliable and can leave your club with a barren wasteland of talent from ages 18-23. Also, even though Hawthorn have done well with their later picks, their youth still isn't close to the best in the competition. With the older, experienced players they've topped up with, they're basically attempting to win a flag in the same window where teams like Richmond, Brisbane and the Bulldogs are either at their peak, or very soon reaching it. Richmond are clearly a better team than Hawthorn right now, and while both Brisbane & the Bulldogs are only arguably better, they clearly have better youth and scope for improvement.

Gee imagine if we'd selected Pendlebury or J Kennedy insted of Ellis (05) J Selwood or J Rewoldt instead of Mitch Thorp (06), Shuey instead of Schoenmakers (08) Anyone but orourke at #19 in (14) Anyone but Lovell at #24 (15)
'
Im giving us a pass on Rioli (07) Burgoyne (09) I Smith -Scully now a Hawk-(10) Gunston and Hill (11) ( not to mention Patton, wingard, frost, Omeara are now hawks) Obrien and Lake (12), Mcevoy (13) although a better pick compo for buddy might have landed a bontempelli. Tom mitcetll and later scrimshaw (16) Omeara instad of Hunter clark (17)

2018 too soon to call

 

[Pessimistic]

you keep referring to the past with almost every post

Guaranteed richmonds next three years wont be as good as the last three?

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Well, that's wrong.
As for injuries, well, he hasn't quite developed into the player people thought he'd be after his first two years at GC. For all anyone knows, his two knee injuries may affect him for the rest of his career, similar to Adam Cooney after 2008.


Maybe so, but soft tissue injuries are still concerning in general, and he isn't getting any younger.


Who said you couldn't get Mitchell? Last time I checked, there was no rule saying rebuilding clubs couldn't land big trades. Carlton brought in Chris Judd right after winning the spoon.

Because i highly doubt that Mitchell was about to join a team that was going to enter a full rebuild.

On the topic of O'meara it isn't he was one of the highest rated juniors in my time watching footy and he came in and was instantly one of the top few young players in the laegue. Again yes injuries MAY affect him going forward that is the risk, i acknowledged the risk but with a kid that talented it was worth risking.

He isn't getting any younger... He is 26 and you are talking like he is 36. He has plenty of good football ahead of him and you tried to make out that he was injury prone which is flat out not true. He had a poor year with injuries but that is not consistent with his career.

 

[theBigB]

They just spent 10 years at the bottom of the table for one good year to end up 2nd last the following year... If that is what rebuilding 'the right way' gets you i am pretty happy with what we are doing to be honest.

Did you feel the same way about your club when they failed to make the finals in 2009?
Sometimes anomalies happen. Bulldogs in 2017 and 2007 is an example from my own club. At the end of the day, if we're comparing lists in 2019, Melbourne clearly have the better youth than Hawthorn.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

you keep referring to the past with almost every post

Because it is relevant to this thread... The entire point is our rebuild. Whether the Demons are in a better position than us now is irrelevant (i would argue they aren't but whatever). If 10 years at the bottom of the ladder is the cost of it than i am not buying.

 

[theBigB]

Gee imagine if we'd selected Pendlebury or J Kennedy insted of Ellis (05) J Selwood or J Rewoldt instead of Mitch Thorp (06), Shuey instead of Schoenmakers (08) Anyone but orourke at #19 in (14) Anyone but Lovell at #24 (15)
'
Im giving us a pass on Rioli (07) Burgoyne (09) I Smith -Scully now a Hawk-(10) Gunston and Hill (11) ( not to mention Patton, wingard, frost, Omeara are now hawks) Obrien and Lake (12), Mcevoy (13) although a better pick compo for buddy might have landed a bontempelli. Tom mitcetll and later scrimshaw (16) Omeara instad of Hunter clark (17)

2018 too soon to call

Way to completely miss the point of my post...

Because i highly doubt that Mitchell was about to join a team that was going to enter a full rebuild.

Is that what Clarko was telling him right as he was pushing Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis out the door? Two of club's best players who were pivotal to your success over the last 3 years? Was he telling Tom of his plans to select future champion James Worpel at pick 45 in 12 months time?

On the topic of O'meara it isn't he was one of the highest rated juniors in my time watching footy and he came in and was instantly one of the top few young players in the laegue. Again yes injuries MAY affect him going forward that is the risk, i acknowledged the risk but with a kid that talented it was worth risking.

Who cares if he was one of the highest rated juniors? That doesn't necessarily reflect talent at the top level. Cale Morton was once rated one of the most talented juniors in the country, how did that one hold up?

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Did you feel the same way about your club when they failed to make the finals in 2009?
Sometimes anomalies happen. Bulldogs in 2017 and 2007 is an example from my own club. At the end of the day, if we're comparing lists in 2019, Melbourne clearly have the better youth than Hawthorn.

Again where the Dees are now is not relevant. My point is that we have seen how hard a full rebuild is to do and the Dees are just an example of that. When you see how many clubs have tried and failed to rebuild from the bottom i think it is common sense that clubs are going to look for new ways to build a list.

 

[theBigB]

Again where the Dees are now is not relevant. My point is that we have seen how hard a full rebuild is to do and the Dees are just an example of that. When you see how many clubs have tried and failed to rebuild from the bottom i think it is common sense that clubs are going to look for new ways to build a list.

You're acting like the Demons have already failed their rebuild.

Did the Bulldogs officially fail their rebuild after 2014? 4th year at the bottom of the ladder, McCartney sacked, Griffen, Cooney and Higgins leave...

Demons still have a lot of quality on their list, particularly within their youth. They're more than capable of bouncing back.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Way to completely miss the point of my post...


Is that what Clarko was telling him right as he was pushing Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis out the door? Two of club's best players who were pivotal to your success over the last 3 years? Was he telling Tom of his plans to select future champion James Worpel at pick 45 in 12 months time?


Who cares if he was one of the highest rated juniors? That doesn't necessarily reflect talent at the top level. Cale Morton was once rated one of the most talented juniors in the country, how did that one hold up?

Mitchell and Lewis were slow and getting by on football smarts alone, we saw that the Eagles midfield improved once Mitchell and Priddis were out of it. We couldn't carry them both in the same midfield.

You are missing the point on O'meara he was super talented AND had shown he had the ability at AFL level. He was a rare talent that we wanted to gamble on. There was a reason clubs were lining up to try and sign him despite his injury concerns.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

You're acting like the Demons have already failed their rebuild.

Did the Bulldogs officially fail their rebuild after 2014? 4th year at the bottom of the ladder, McCartney sacked, Griffen, Cooney and Higgins leave...

NO I'M NOT... The rebuild has been going on for 10 years now is my point... You and many others have gone on about the risk involved in our rebuild and i am simply pointing out the risk is just as high going on a full on rebuild. They are very hard to get right and it has taken them close to 10 years just to get a list that looks like it should be able to contend, but we still don't know if it will. If you can look at what the Dees fans have had to go through for the last 10 years and can still tell me that is 100% the only way to rebuild than i have no idea what to even say to that.

 

[Pessimistic]

Way to completely miss the point of my post...


Is that what Clarko was telling him right as he was pushing Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis out the door? Two of club's best players who were pivotal to your success over the last 3 years? Was he telling Tom of his plans to select future champion James Worpel at pick 45 in 12 months time?


Who cares if he was one of the highest rated juniors? That doesn't necessarily reflect talent at the top level. Cale Morton was once rated one of the most talented juniors in the country, how did that one hold up?

The point is development of the said youngsters. Hawks would be in the best 5 clubs in the country consistently over a period over the last decade.

Late pick kids often have one or two weapons but not a fully rounded game. identifying what this is and working on it seems to be a big part of the approach. Being able to slot in and have a role which maximises this helps too. maintaining a team structure still in the premiership demograp which may have a LOT more bearing on this success than a lot of people give credit for.

On your second point - very few hawks are three club players. they either start there or finish there. Spangher may be one, but it wasnt Hawks doing he had three clubs

 

[Randy Campbell]

I like how Hawthorn supporters on here are getting advice on all things rebuild from Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Melbourne, Carlton and Essendon fans on all things list management when those 5 Victorian clubs have only won 2 Premierships between them since 2000.

It is because of there belief in the AFL's equalisation measures.
The hope of success through the drafting at the elite end of the draft is there only hope of success.
If it gets proven to be wrong, what hope do they have left?

 

[Pessimistic]

NO I'M NOT... The rebuild has been going on for 10 years now is my point... You and many others have gone on about the risk involved in our rebuild and i am simply pointing out the risk is just as high going on a full on rebuild. They are very hard to get right and it has taken them close to 10 years just to get a list that looks like it should be able to contend, but we still don't know if it will. If you can look at what the Dees fans have had to go through for the last 10 years and can still tell me that is 100% the only way to rebuild than i have no idea what to even say to that.

My thought is youu only go the full rebuild if its obvious you are at the bottom and will stay there a couple of years.

against all this is the matter of the threepeat lions. last in 1998 but grand finals 2001-2004. clearly they didnt need to keep hard rebuilding. Imagins if a coach had come in with that attitude?