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Expansion Canberra
- Thread starter Johnny Bananas
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I emailed Hunter Fujak to get the data for Canberra.
Coincidentally, the survey suggested 44% in the ACT were interested in AFL.
He stressed the sample size in Canberra wasn't big and it shouldn't be taken as gospel, but it still puts Canberra towards Perth and far above any other city north of the Barassi Line.
For comparison, 41% surveyed in the ACT has an interest in league, 30% had an interest in union and 10% in soccer. Pretty impressive to still get more league or union without any local team. Shows Canberra would likely be an easier job to get started than GWS and Gold Coast were.
Unless the AFL manages to strongarm a team down there, it looks like Tasmania will be getting a 19th licence in the next decade.
In the past century, the competition hasn't gone longer than four years with odd teams, so you'd think the AFL would have a 20th team in their periphery, too.
Gutwein has indicated he'd be happy with a 2026-2030 timeline for Tasmania. If Tassie entered in 2030, Canberra could enter in 2031 and give GWS enough time to pivot markets.
In the past century, the competition hasn't gone longer than four years with odd teams, so you'd think the AFL would have a 20th team in their periphery, too.
Gutwein has indicated he'd be happy with a 2026-2030 timeline for Tasmania. If Tassie entered in 2030, Canberra could enter in 2031 and give GWS enough time to pivot markets.
A recent article regarding Canberra's aspirations for an AFL team (free to read).
It's rather pessimistic, talking about how we had big hopes in the '80s and '90s, but they dissipated after the failed Fitzroy semi-move (coincidentally the same year the Brumbies started up).
The author suggests Tasmania's bid to be another nail in the coffin against a Canberra bid: "Now with Tasmania well and truly in the box seat if the AFL is to expand, Canberra’s aspirations, if there were any remaining, have virtually disappeared".
I disagree with this sentiment, as history has showed the AFL is generally keen for even teams. If anything, I see a 19th team as a positive for Canberra.
It's also interesting reading the comments. There's also some pessimism over whether it would happen, but the general mood is at least for more footy in Canberra. One woman claimed she stopped trying to go because they were always sell outs. Some want a new side, some want more GWS games (which seems even less likely), but either way there's an appetite for more than we're getting.
It's rather pessimistic, talking about how we had big hopes in the '80s and '90s, but they dissipated after the failed Fitzroy semi-move (coincidentally the same year the Brumbies started up).
The author suggests Tasmania's bid to be another nail in the coffin against a Canberra bid: "Now with Tasmania well and truly in the box seat if the AFL is to expand, Canberra’s aspirations, if there were any remaining, have virtually disappeared".
I disagree with this sentiment, as history has showed the AFL is generally keen for even teams. If anything, I see a 19th team as a positive for Canberra.
It's also interesting reading the comments. There's also some pessimism over whether it would happen, but the general mood is at least for more footy in Canberra. One woman claimed she stopped trying to go because they were always sell outs. Some want a new side, some want more GWS games (which seems even less likely), but either way there's an appetite for more than we're getting.
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Let's hope once/if Tassie is confirmed as the 19th team, Canberra puts its hand up to be the 20th license.
Like the idea of Darwin in the AFL, but I do find it strange that it's everyone's go to for thinking about the next city up for a team after Tassie. It has a population of 160k v Canberra's 460k. In 2030 the former will have around 177k and the latter around 510k. Then you've got the weather up that way too -there does not seem to be a strong argument why Darwin gets a team before CBR.
Like the idea of Darwin in the AFL, but I do find it strange that it's everyone's go to for thinking about the next city up for a team after Tassie. It has a population of 160k v Canberra's 460k. In 2030 the former will have around 177k and the latter around 510k. Then you've got the weather up that way too -there does not seem to be a strong argument why Darwin gets a team before CBR.
Agreed.
And that's just the projected population of the ACT, there'd be close to another 100k within about an hour's drive.
It would be pretty cool to see the NT's bid get up, but it's very pie-in-the-sky stuff. It accepts that it won't be profitable and leans on the social benefits of the bid.
The AFL has been backed into a corner with the Tasmanian expansion, probably ahead of its ideal expansion timeline, so a 20th team in a region they already know won't have an economic pay-off is probably something they'd want to avoid.
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As a Ken Behren I would be disgusted to get a relocated team, especially if they are mine.
Haha, not even if we re-name them the Ken-garoos?
I think the time for relocated teams has come and gone. Much of it was before my time, but I think Fitzroy was only club that was seriously courted for a relocation.
I found an article from 1987 saying at the time Canberra was seriously searching for a VFL team to relocate and would clear any interested club's debt, pay $1.9m in establishment costs and underwrite any losses in the first five years.
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I'm not confident that Fitzroy will be the last time we see a relocation of a Melbourne Club, but I am confident that recent Vic Government plans regarding the redevelopment around Arden Street will mean the North Melbourne will no longer be the primary target.
As for Canberra, it would have been interesting if we entered the league in 1987 instead of Brisbane. It was a very strong AFL town back in the day as a lot of Public Service Departments were transferring from Melbourne to Canberra and a lot of Victorians came up. When I joined the PS in 1990 about 30 of the 35 people in my branch were ex-pat Victorians, we would talk AFL for 2/3 hours every Monday morning. It was fun.
As for Canberra, it would have been interesting if we entered the league in 1987 instead of Brisbane. It was a very strong AFL town back in the day as a lot of Public Service Departments were transferring from Melbourne to Canberra and a lot of Victorians came up. When I joined the PS in 1990 about 30 of the 35 people in my branch were ex-pat Victorians, we would talk AFL for 2/3 hours every Monday morning. It was fun.
I don't see a relocation happening within the next 20 years or so. If Tasmania gets a 19th team, and Canberra a 20th, there's nowhere in the short-term that could realistically support a fulltime relocated team. Definitely not a market worth the upheaval.
It would have been very interesting to see Canberra today if it had had an AFL team since then. I would say Canberra today is a pretty 50/50 split between AFL/NRL. Canberra could have well and truly been an AFL town now if it had acted.
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Tuggeranong residents are all Hawks and Bulldogs fans. Except me.
Might have something to do with tuggers bulldogs juniors and seniors in hawks colours.
I'd prefer a new team over a relocation.
Especially if Tasmania gets the 19th team, you'd want to keep the numbers even.
I'd still get behind a relocated team, but I imagine it would take some a bit longer to do. There's baggage with historical rivalries (which was why it was so easy for Canberrans to jump on the Giants, too).
That being said, a pre-existing national presence, up to 40k members in Melbourne, and a ready squad and staff would definitely be handy for a team starting in a new city.
Especially if Tasmania gets the 19th team, you'd want to keep the numbers even.
I'd still get behind a relocated team, but I imagine it would take some a bit longer to do. There's baggage with historical rivalries (which was why it was so easy for Canberrans to jump on the Giants, too).
That being said, a pre-existing national presence, up to 40k members in Melbourne, and a ready squad and staff would definitely be handy for a team starting in a new city.
There would be a strong chance that Hawthorn or North end up playing games in Canberra when/if they exit Tassie.
I could see two Hawks games (with GWS shifting a game back to Sydney) there and three North games in Albury.
As in Canberra gets two GWS and two Hawthorn games?
The stadium is looking good at Albury, but I can't see them jumping from never having hosted a regular season match (that I'm aware of) to hosting three every year. Two tops.
Yep, four games all up in Canberra. Albury is a good fit for North, they will Play wherever the AFL wants. NT or Nth Qld other options for games.
As a Canberran, I like having the one team for us all to get behind. Obviously I'd prefer our own team, but GWS has made for a good part-time team. Canberra is GWS territory more than just the men's games, we also have an AFLW, preseason, and the academy based here, so I'm not sure if Canberrans would get behind a second team simultaneously while supporting GWS.
Back in the day, we had Melbourne and Bulldogs both playing an annual home game, but it was the opposition (Sydney) which was the common factor. Hawthorn could do something similar playing a home game against GWS?
My ideal situation would be Tasmania and Canberra getting teams 19 and 20.
Canberra playing games in Wagga and Albury.
GWS shifting games back to Sydney, but also playing some in Newcastle.
Then if North and Hawthorn need to sell more game they can spread them between NT and NQ
From the non-AFL thread, the latest Ausplay data has been released.
There's been similar results in recent years, but Australian football has more than double the participation of both rugby union and league combined in the ACT.
There's been similar results in recent years, but Australian football has more than double the participation of both rugby union and league combined in the ACT.
- Australian football had 8,306 participants
- Rugby league had 1,088
- Rugby union had 2,592
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1. Behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post this article here please (or, at least, what is ACT govt. offering for 4 games, & why GWS may want 4 home games in ACT)?
"Canberra could host four AFL premiership games in one season for the first time in history with GWS locked in talks for a Giant return to Manuka Oval. Via
@cadenhelmers
canberratimes.com.au
Giant return: GWS could bring four games to Canberra
The ACT government has been in discussions with the AFL".
2.
Whilst GR AF has had strong growth in the ACT in the last few years, & male GR contact RL nos. there are in a significant long term decline, I would be surprised if GR AF club & school comp. player nos. now surpass, by c. 127%, the combined GR RL & RU club & school comp. nos. GR RU is still reasonably strong in the ACT.
Ausplay is a survey only, of 1 person in every 1000; &, if one answers in the survey that you only played a sport once in the last 12 months, Ausplay records you as a "participant"- very misleading.
Perhaps you may wish to post the 2021 AF, RL, & RU no. of club & school (latter more difficult) comp. teams for a more accurate comparison?
Admittedly, still a difficult task, since 2021 club Auskick nos. for the ACT are not available now.
Furthermore, much more problematic is that nearly all GR RL clubs are, in 2021, not distinguishing- in their comp. official fixtures- whether a team is contact, or Tag! (Prior to 2021, the Divisions in the RL Fixture had "LT"- League Tag- next to the Division).
It appears this obfuscation is because the NRL is deliberately trying to conceal how many of their GR teams are contact, or Tag only. Pre 2021, all GR RL Divisions, in the Greater Brisbane & Greater Sydney Fixtures, had "LT" next to the Division, denoting teams that were playing Tag- but this LT has now been removed!
www.playrugbyleague.com
At a cursory glance of the 2021 Greater Brisbane & Greater Sydney Fixtures, only the Cronulla Sutherland District RL comp. still shows "Tag"/ LT, to distinguish the tag team Divisions.
Worryingly for the NRL, 35% of U11 & U12 CSDRL comp. teams are Tag ie in the Fixture, 6 contact Divisions- 42 teams; 4 Tag Divisions- 23 (small sided) teams.
www.playrugbyleague.com
Note, in the above CSDRL comp. link, Divisions & teams from U13 onwards don't appear- they play in a Combined Conference, against surrounding Sydney District RL comps. This has occurred with all the Greater Sydney District RL comps.- because GR male contact RL player nos. have fallen so much, the once discrete District RL comps. have had to be combined.
"Canberra could host four AFL premiership games in one season for the first time in history with GWS locked in talks for a Giant return to Manuka Oval. Via
@cadenhelmers
canberratimes.com.au
Giant return: GWS could bring four games to Canberra
The ACT government has been in discussions with the AFL".
2.
Whilst GR AF has had strong growth in the ACT in the last few years, & male GR contact RL nos. there are in a significant long term decline, I would be surprised if GR AF club & school comp. player nos. now surpass, by c. 127%, the combined GR RL & RU club & school comp. nos. GR RU is still reasonably strong in the ACT.
Ausplay is a survey only, of 1 person in every 1000; &, if one answers in the survey that you only played a sport once in the last 12 months, Ausplay records you as a "participant"- very misleading.
Perhaps you may wish to post the 2021 AF, RL, & RU no. of club & school (latter more difficult) comp. teams for a more accurate comparison?
Admittedly, still a difficult task, since 2021 club Auskick nos. for the ACT are not available now.
Furthermore, much more problematic is that nearly all GR RL clubs are, in 2021, not distinguishing- in their comp. official fixtures- whether a team is contact, or Tag! (Prior to 2021, the Divisions in the RL Fixture had "LT"- League Tag- next to the Division).
It appears this obfuscation is because the NRL is deliberately trying to conceal how many of their GR teams are contact, or Tag only. Pre 2021, all GR RL Divisions, in the Greater Brisbane & Greater Sydney Fixtures, had "LT" next to the Division, denoting teams that were playing Tag- but this LT has now been removed!
Association: Rugby League Brisbane
Rugby League Brisbane's Competitions and Clubs
At a cursory glance of the 2021 Greater Brisbane & Greater Sydney Fixtures, only the Cronulla Sutherland District RL comp. still shows "Tag"/ LT, to distinguish the tag team Divisions.
Worryingly for the NRL, 35% of U11 & U12 CSDRL comp. teams are Tag ie in the Fixture, 6 contact Divisions- 42 teams; 4 Tag Divisions- 23 (small sided) teams.
Association: Cronulla/Sutherland JRL
Cronulla/Sutherland JRL's Competitions and Clubs
Note, in the above CSDRL comp. link, Divisions & teams from U13 onwards don't appear- they play in a Combined Conference, against surrounding Sydney District RL comps. This has occurred with all the Greater Sydney District RL comps.- because GR male contact RL player nos. have fallen so much, the once discrete District RL comps. have had to be combined.
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You're no more a Canberran than you would be Japanese if you moved to Japan.
As with all groups there's more to being a Canberran than simply existing in Canberra, and it's obvious from the way you talk about the city that you are an outsider with only slightly more than a surface level understanding of the city and it's culture that is trying to reform it in your own image.
I definitely agree the survey's not perfect. It's an incredibly small sample, but it's good for a rough guide. I can only find 2019's results for comparison (AF 8461, RU 2194 and RL 1472). Those numbers are pretty similar so it means the quoted survey isn't an anomaly.
The numbers quoted are only for 15+, so wouldn't correlate with Auskick numbers.
It might more be the question Ausplay asks. It relates to having "participated once in the past year". People who don't play regularly might be more likely to have a casual kick of the Sherrin than a casual throw of the Gilbert or Steeden.
A lot of Canberra-specific data is hard to find as everything is usually groups as AFL NSW/ACT.
For context, at a competitive level, rugby union and footy are pretty similar in the ACT (excluding NSW suburbs). In 2021, there were 29 men's senior footy teams, and 34 men's senior union teams. With more players on a footy team, player numbers would be pretty even. There were only 15 men's rugby league teams.
That’s good news for Canberra, not good news for GWS fans.
It’ll probably only be for a season or two, but it’ll be a good chance for Canberra to show it can host and support more footy.
I’ve already seen comments from Giants fans though who aren’t happy losing another game. Many of them are already annoyed they only get eight games in Sydney. Seven games is not good for a club looking to grow their brand.
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The only relocated team in the history of the VFL-AFL is South Melbourne.
Have to agree. I can't see how North Melbourne will relocate in the future.
No doubt we'll read another boring diatribe from the likes of Papa G about not sending North Melbourne up to the Gold Coast being the single biggest mistake, in league history.
That's the sort of sentiment Fitzroy was hoping to capitalise on in 1995 by offering to play seven home games in Canberra per season from 1996 onwards.
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