Expansion Canberra

[Canberra Pear]

No Vic club is ever going to move. North Sydney may be more popular than GWS (at least in the short tem), but they would not be bigger than North Melbourne. Don't waste your energy or posts thinking about that.
The whole sell in 2008 form the AFL to the clubs and the broadcasters was all about the 2m in WS. But alas we are stuck with GWS, so that ship has sailed.

Back to Canberra, they do not have a compelling case for a club, but after Tassie they are clearly the next best.
Giving each expansion option a score, I would say...
Tasmania 7/10 - 500K love footy
Gold Coast 7/10 - 550K almost half love footy, but growing fast and can draw on southern Brisbane & Northern NSW
Canberra - 5/10 - 500k maybe 40% love footy.
WS - 4/10 - 2m but at best 5% like footy. Going to be a very, very long hall
Newcastle - 500k 5% like footy
Darwin - 150k 70% love footy
NQ - Cairns has 170K maybe 20% like footy.

I can't say for sure (and I'm obviously biased) but I would say Canberra's footy love as a percentage would be closer to (if not ahead of) the Gold Coast's. We're both full of interstaters, but Canberra has more history of southerners coming up, so it's more embedded (that's at least my perception). For instance, of the cities' two powerhouses, Southport was founded in 1961 and Ainslie was founded in 1927.

Interestingly, North ditched Canberra for the Gold Coast for greener grass. They played on the Gold Coast for four seasons (2006-2009) and it was enough (plus the population) for the AFL to decide they wanted a side there, even if North wouldn't move.

In those corresponding years, Canberra actually averaged 15.6% higher crowds.

 

[Bjo187]

Tonight's game in cairns is further proof why north qld is a ridiculous suggestion for team 20. Ugly game again coz of the humidity and therefore slippery ball.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Tonight's game in cairns is further proof why north qld is a ridiculous suggestion for team 20. Ugly game again coz of the humidity and therefore slippery ball.

It's ugly footy, but you've got to hand it to Cairns. It looks like a decent crowd. There'd be like 8% of the whole city there. Not something that could be sustained for a season though.

 

[Rob]

Tonight's game in cairns is further proof why north qld is a ridiculous suggestion for team 20. Ugly game again coz of the humidity and therefore slippery ball.

Yeah fair point. But the league should be smarter than scheduling games up there in April.

June to September the weather is dry.

 

[Bjo187]

Yeah fair point. But the league should be smarter than scheduling games up there in April.

June to September the weather is dry.

I don't think it rained at all though it was just humid.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The public push is on (however so slightly).

This was an opinion piece pushing for our own team in the Canberra Times.

I believe there are free articles on the Canberra Times, but here are the highlights just in case:

Canberrans, when it comes to AFL, have been asked to adopt all manner of teams as our own, depending on who's signed the right deal at the time. Remember when North Melbourne was supposed to be our team? LOL.

Then the team hopped off to the Gold Coast. Really, Really North Melbourne. Then we had the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne Demons (before they were good) playing home games in Canberra, before now a team from western Sydney.

Don't get me wrong, in the absence of our own team, it has helped to grow the number of AFL fans in the national capital and keep us in the mix.

But how good would it be to have our own AFL team? One that was truly Canberra's own?

Tasmania and, now, the Northern Territory are champing at the bit to join the AFL. Where is our lobbying? We need a men's and women's team. A team to champion, a team for our kids to aspire to perhaps one day join.

 

[terrybull]

Canberra Satyrs
Green and Brown

Wine, wild women and song.

Fans play pan pipes after each goal.

Win or lose - Toga parties after games.

 

[Coolangatta]

I'm torn between:

20 team competition: Tas team 19, NT team 20, relocate North to Canberra for an ACT team
OR
20 team competition: Tas team 19, Canberra team 20, then eventually NT as team 21 (don't add any new teams until they're ready, **** NSW and QLD)

Either way, and I've said it before, there really should eventually be teams in Tassie, the NT, and the ACT.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I'm torn between:

20 team competition: Tas team 19, NT team 20, relocate North to Canberra for an ACT team
OR
20 team competition: Tas team 19, Canberra team 20, then eventually NT as team 21 (don't add any new teams until they're ready, duck NSW and QLD)

Either way, and I've said it before, there really should eventually be teams in Tassie, the NT, and the ACT.

Canberra would be more receptive to a relocation than Tassie, but in scenario one, I think it'd still be better with a gradual relocation to the NT.

Darwin usually only hosts one game a year, and never more than two. A gradual relocation would allow them to slowly build it up, rather than suddenly eight or nine games.

The case study also mentioned a $15m annual funding gap. Having a relocated side would give them a Melbourne base and pre-existing assets as well.

 

[Bjo187]

Canberra would be more receptive to a relocation than Tassie, but in scenario one, I think it'd still be better with a gradual relocation to the NT.

Darwin usually only hosts one game a year, and never more than two. A gradual relocation would allow them to slowly build it up, rather than suddenly eight or nine games.

The case study also mentioned a $15m annual funding gap. Having a relocated side would give them a Melbourne base and pre-existing assets as well.

I still don't see it, let's move our club from a city of 5 million to a city of 100,000 with half the people living under the poverty line, it doesn't make any sense. North if relocating would almost be better to go to w.a, at least they have a decent following there already.

Canberra I think most people that are footy fans would already have a team, I think you only relocate clubs to new markets, in other words the AFL missed the bus massively in not relocating existing teams to gws and gc, it would have strengthened the traditional and new location if done properly. Pretty much like south to Sydney, that's the template into new football areas. But brand new clubs should be created in traditional footy areas.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I still don't see it, let's move our club from a city of 5 million to a city of 100,000 with half the people living under the poverty line, it doesn't make any sense. North if relocating would almost be better to go to w.a, at least they have a decent following there already.

Canberra I think most people that are footy fans would already have a team, I think you only relocate clubs to new markets, in other words the AFL missed the bus massively in not relocating existing teams to gws and gc, it would have strengthened the traditional and new location if done properly. Pretty much like south to Sydney, that's the template into new football areas. But brand new clubs should be created in traditional footy areas.

It's honestly can't see an NT team before 2050 working without a gradual relocation. There's just not enough people to support an outright expansion (at least for the foreseeable future).

I actually have a (completely unfounded) theory that the Western Bulldogs name change was a long-term relocation decision by the AFL. If North had gone to the Gold Coast, that would've given the greenlight for further relocations, and we'd eventually see the Western Bulldogs playing out of Homebush without even having to change their name (ironic now, given they're GWS' biggest rivals).

 

[sverik25]

No Vic club is ever going to move. North Sydney may be more popular than GWS (at least in the short tem), but they would not be bigger than North Melbourne. Don't waste your energy or posts thinking about that.
The whole sell in 2008 form the AFL to the clubs and the broadcasters was all about the 2m in WS. But alas we are stuck with GWS, so that ship has sailed.

Back to Canberra, they do not have a compelling case for a club, but after Tassie they are clearly the next best.
Giving each expansion option a score, I would say...
Tasmania 7/10 - 500K love footy
Gold Coast 7/10 - 550K almost half love footy, but growing fast and can draw on southern Brisbane & Northern NSW
Canberra - 5/10 - 500k maybe 40% love footy.
WS - 4/10 - 2m but at best 5% like footy. Going to be a very, very long hall
Newcastle - 500k 5% like footy
Darwin - 150k 70% love footy
NQ - Cairns has 170K maybe 20% like footy.

I think you've got Canberra and the Gold Coast the wrong way round to be honest. I would say about 40% of football code supporters in Canberra follow the AFL and about 30-35% on the Gold Coast (coming from the perspective of someone who grew up on the Sunshine Coast and is currently living in Canberra).

 

[Bjo187]

I think you've got Canberra and the Gold Coast the wrong way round to be honest. I would say about 40% of football code supporters in Canberra follow the AFL and about 30-35% on the Gold Coast (coming from the perspective of someone who grew up on the Sunshine Coast and is currently living in Canberra).

Sounds about right but in the Hunter fujak book he indicates from research AFL is the most popular football code in Canberra despite not having a team.

 

[Coolangatta]

It's honestly can't see an NT team before 2050 working without a gradual relocation. There's just not enough people to support an outright expansion (at least for the foreseeable future).

I actually have a (completely unfounded) theory that the Western Bulldogs name change was a long-term relocation decision by the AFL. If North had gone to the Gold Coast, that would've given the greenlight for further relocations, and we'd eventually see the Western Bulldogs playing out of Homebush without even having to change their name (ironic now, given they're GWS' biggest rivals).

Gold Coast Kangaroos and Greater Western Sydney Bulldogs would've been good, keeping the competition to 16 teams.

Team 17 Tassie, team 18 Canberra, then leave it at 18 teams until NT can join as team 19. But it was not to be.

NT deserves their own club, IMO. As for when, it depends on what the NT taskforce findings are. Right now (I think you've mentioned this), they'd be at a net loss of 15 million dollars a year. Unless someone is going to cover the loss, it's definitely too soon to have them join the league, but not necessarily as late as 2050.

 

[sverik25]

Gold Coast Kangaroos and Greater Western Sydney Bulldogs would've been good, keeping the competition to 16 teams.

Team 17 Tassie, team 18 Canberra, then leave it at 18 teams until NT can join as team 19. But it was not to be.

NT deserves their own club, IMO. As for when, it depends on what the NT taskforce findings are. Right now (I think you've mentioned this), they'd be at a net loss of 15 million dollars a year. Unless someone is going to cover the loss, it's definitely too soon to have them join the league, but not necessarily as late as 2050.

NT's population is currently stagnant, so with each year that passes their business case gets worse relative to other potential teams in the conversation.

I can't see how the NT can possibly support a team now or in the future, unless the territory's fortunes drastically change.

 

[Canberra Pear]

NT's population is currently stagnant, so with each year that passes their business case gets worse relative to other potential teams in the conversation.

I can't see how the NT can possibly support a team now or in the future, unless the territory's fortunes drastically change.

Exactly. Darwin only has 147k people. The NT also has the lowest disposable income in the country ($1635, compared to $2373 for Tasmania and $2899 for the ACT).

So not only does Darwin have a small population, but in terms of being able to spend money (on merch, tickets and as value to broadcasters and advertisers) the average NT fan is also worth 44% less than an ACT fan and 21% less than a Tasmanian.

Combining population and disposable income, Darwin only has 1/6 the market of Canberra.

Darwin as it is can't sustain a full-time team. The NT really needs the federal government to ramp up projects and encourage migration if it's ever going to be big enough.

 

[Bjo187]

Exactly. Darwin only has 147k people. The NT also has the lowest disposable income in the country ($1635, compared to $2373 for Tasmania and $2899 for the ACT).

So not only does Darwin have a small population, but in terms of being able to spend money (on merch, tickets and as value to broadcasters and advertisers) the average NT fan is also worth 44% less than an ACT fan and 21% less than a Tasmanian.

Combining population and disposable income, Darwin only has 1/6 the market of Canberra.

Darwin as it is can't sustain a full-time team. The NT really needs the federal government to ramp up projects and encourage migration if it's ever going to be big enough.

You know what I find amazing, is the amount of people in the AFL media suggesting N.T as team 20, when most of them were the same people saying Tassie is too small to support an AFL team only 5 or so years ago (despite half the population of tas). It shows how little they actually know about the industry.. and it's their full time job, go figure.

 

[Canberra Pear]

You know what I find amazing, is the amount of people in the AFL media suggesting N.T as team 20, when most of them were the same people saying Tassie is too small to support an AFL team only 5 or so years ago (despite half the population of tas). It shows how little they actually know about the industry.. and it's their full time job, go figure.

Exactly. I think the 20th team has factored in the change of thinking.

Many were anti-Tasmania and also anti-expansion. Now that Tasmania has become an inevitability, the mindset has changed to looking for the 20th team, rather than denying the 19th.

I get it. The NT is a romantic option, and if they could pull it off, it'd be amazing.

Another interesting point is that Canberra is often shat on for being a "rugby town", but Darwin seems to have a pretty decent NRL following, too. Over the last two games each of AFL and NRL in Darwin, AFL has average 6520, NRL has averaged 11,037. So of that small population, they also have a decent chunk who prefer NRL.

 

[Seedsfan]

Gold Coast Kangaroos and Greater Western Sydney Bulldogs would've been good, keeping the competition to 16 teams.

Team 17 Tassie, team 18 Canberra, then leave it at 18 teams until NT can join as team 19. But it was not to be.

NT deserves their own club, IMO. As for when, it depends on what the NT taskforce findings are. Right now (I think you've mentioned this), they'd be at a net loss of 15 million dollars a year. Unless someone is going to cover the loss, it's definitely too soon to have them join the league, but not necessarily as late as 2050.

Why do they deserve a club? When they are no hope in hell of ever being able to support a club

 

[Coolangatta]

Why do they deserve a club? When they are no hope in hell of ever being able to support a club

"In 2017, AFLNT reported 44,729 direct participants in Australian Rules through official competitions or programs, which makes up 18% of the NT population. There are also around 15,000 more participants in AFL promotional activities.

Around half of all participants are in non-metropolitan areas of the Territory, and a growing 34% of participants are women.[21]

The Tiwi Islands is said to have the highest participation rate in Australia (35%) [1]."

"Attendance Record[edit]

• 17,500 (2002). (AFL pre-season practice) Aboriginal All-Stars vs Carlton. (Marrara Oval, Darwin)"

And google Northern Territory AFL players. Take a look at the names and how many great players they've had contributing to the game.

 

[Seedsfan]

"In 2017, AFLNT reported 44,729 direct participants in Australian Rules through official competitions or programs, which makes up 18% of the NT population. There are also around 15,000 more participants in AFL promotional activities.

Around half of all participants are in non-metropolitan areas of the Territory, and a growing 34% of participants are women.[21]

The Tiwi Islands is said to have the highest participation rate in Australia (35%) [1]."

"Attendance Record[edit]

• 17,500 (2002). (AFL pre-season practice) Aboriginal All-Stars vs Carlton. (Marrara Oval, Darwin)"

And google Northern Territory AFL players. Take a look at the names and how many great players they've had contributing to the game.

So what? Darwin is where the team will be based the climate is a challenge having any decent infrastructure there or a profitable team will be next to impossible.

 

[Coolangatta]

So what? Darwin is where the team will be based the climate is a challenge having any decent infrastructure there or a profitable team will be next to impossible.

Climate will be a challenge anywhere in the future not just in Darwin. A closed roof stadium with cold rooms will help with the heat and humidity, and so will playing some games in Alice Springs when it's the wet season in Darwin. One thing we do agree on being a problem is the economics and infrastructure - that's a problem... for now. But long-term who knows.

 

[Seedsfan]

Climate will be a challenge anywhere in the future not just in Darwin. A closed roof stadium with cold rooms will help with the heat and humidity, and so will playing some games in Alice Springs when it's the wet season in Darwin. One thing we do agree on being a problem is the economics and infrastructure - that's a problem... for now. But long-term who knows.

The NT is not going to suddenly become economically viable the low end population predictions only have Darwin having a population of 260,000 by 2050.

 

[kranger]

Hmm, one of these grounds with an average crowd of less than 10,000 is the home ground for an AFL team.



If Manuka Oval was to have a capacity increase, would it get larger crowds to GWS games?

It seems like 11,000 is around the regular attendance, despite having a capacity of 16,000. ‘Edit: the Manuka Oval website quotes a seated capacity of 13,550 History – Manuka Oval ‘

How big of a crowd could Canberra regularly pull?

 

[parano1a]

How big of a crowd could Canberra regularly pull?

Hopefully between 15-20k would be the aim. There's also plenty of politicians around to fill up corporate suites.

Additionally, a lot more fans from Victoria and NSW would be likely to travel to Canberra for a game than Darwin.