Analysis Carlton v Opposition 2018 Qtr by Qtr Breakdown

[The Old Dark Navy's]

This is the complete breakdown of our quarter by quarter scoring vs our opposition in 2018. Second quarters are clearly our biggest issue.

 

[BlueGum]

That's interesting. Looking at first quarters, we start the game off behind and can't catch up. Lack of scoring options make it difficult. The timing of goals in quarters would also be telling I reckon. We seem to flag in quarters and our accuracy drops off over the game.

Just thought I would highlight our quarter by quarter scoring vs our opposition. Maybe we can identify when we are running out of legs. Maybe we can speculate that our improved last quarters highlight junk time scoring when we are already out of the contest.

View attachment 524248

Thanks ODN

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Looks like once the game settles we are incapable of scoring and once it's over we get a few cheapies at the end.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I'll do up a red time one as well, although red time is open to interpretation. Maybe after 25min mark of quarters.

 

[mediumsizered]

The number of times we have kicked the first 2, 3 or even 5 goals (v Richmond) of a game & then a missed shot on goal or bad turnover hands the momentum to the opposition & we are unable to stop or slow down this momentum.

The numbers for our 2nd quarters come as no surprise & tend to reflect the loss of momentum in 1st quarters.

Sadly we are currently at a stage where once the opposition gets a 3 goal lead, we are not capable of pegging this back. As the above numbers suggest, we are generally out of games before half time.

 

[JustaBattler]

Carlton was by far the better side in everything except converting opportunities in Q1.

Phillips going off destroyed the total forward structure and Rowe being taken out of defense to to replace him up forward was an error
Marchbank leaving the field left Carlton with no forward line and a messed up defensive structure and down 2 rotations for half a game.

simple as that ODN.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Carlton was by far the better side in everything except converting opportunities in Q1.

Phillips going off destroyed the total forward structure and Rowe being taken out of defense to to replace him up forward was an error
Marchbank leaving the field left Carlton with no forward line and a messed up defensive structure and down 2 rotations for half a game.

simple as that ODN.

Okay ... this is about every quarter over the course of the season, not just one quarter in one game.

 

[JustaBattler]

Okay ... this is about every quarter over the course of the season, not just one quarter in one game.

Ok - Then I'll have to do two things
1. make sure I read a thread title proper;ly; and
2. get back to you on the real topic.

 

[ferrisb]

Jab: goes off half-cocked
ODN: no quarter given ...

 

[Jeffy38!]

Just thought I would highlight our quarter by quarter scoring vs our opposition. Maybe we can identify when we are running out of legs. Maybe we can speculate that our improved last quarters highlight junk time scoring when we are already out of the contest.

View attachment 524248

This data says to me, once the heats on we go missing.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

This data says to me, once the heats on we go missing.

Yeah, those opening bounces are tough.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Jab: goes off half-cocked
ODN: no quarter given ...

Technically, Jab offered up one and I threw 59 more at him.

 

[Masqualero]

Great thread!

Interesting that while there is a downward trend in our scoring and an upward in opposition scoring the only scoreless qtr the opposition has had was recent


Is Bolts timing a late run?

 

[PrinceCharles]

It looks to me like we are not very good at football.

 

[Jabba73]

Looks like Cotchin has been taking the coin toss and kicking against the wind.

 

[ferrisb]

Looks like Cotchin has been taking the coin toss and kicking against the wind.

At the beginning of every quarter....

 

[ferrisb]

Just thought I would highlight our quarter by quarter scoring vs our opposition. Maybe we can identify when we are running out of legs. Maybe we can speculate that our improved last quarters highlight junk time scoring when we are already out of the contest.

View attachment 524248

Love this ODN.

I concur with others that we start with a (relative) bang, whimper out and then kick some junk goals once the game is over.

But what is interesting is the goal conversion.

Q1 looks stellar (@ 20% more goals than game average). But this is boosted by having our kicking boots on early (converting at >30% better than game average).

If you strip goal conversion out (so looking at scoring shots), Q1 (62) and Q2 (59) are similar, while Q3 (76) and Q4 (77) are very similar.

So really, we score much better late in the game!

Not sure why we kick so accurately in Q1. Maybe.... pre-game kicking practice is still fresh, players are not yet tired, opposition hasn't flooded yet, opposition not yet rushing behinds, game hasn't gotten messy yet.

Whatever the reason, our stronger starts are actually a furphy and we should be looking at what we are doing right in H2 that is delivering us 26% more scoring shots and 13% more goals.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Maybe Bolts is giving them a bake?

 

[Arr0w]

Or resetting some strategies?

 

[RAPPA]

Conversion rates after quarter time are atrocious, whereas the opposition is, at worst going at it at 50%. Just another example of poor skills across the board for us unfortunately

 

[magoo2912]

Love this ODN.

I concur with others that we start with a (relative) bang, whimper out and then kick some junk goals once the game is over.

But what is interesting is the goal conversion.

Q1 looks stellar (@ 20% more goals than game average). But this is boosted by having our kicking boots on early (converting at >30% better than game average).

If you strip goal conversion out (so looking at scoring shots), Q1 (62) and Q2 (59) are similar, while Q3 (76) and Q4 (77) are very similar.

So really, we score much better late in the game!

Not sure why we kick so accurately in Q1. Maybe.... pre-game kicking practice is still fresh, players are not yet tired, opposition hasn't flooded yet, opposition not yet rushing behinds, game hasn't gotten messy yet.

Whatever the reason, our stronger starts are actually a furphy and we should be looking at what we are doing right in H2 that is delivering us 26% more scoring shots and 13% more goals.

This is basically what I was going to write but I will add to it.

Carlton has the biggest lack of leadership in the AFL, the guys that are experienced are in racing terms plodders, Daisy I'm told is good at pointing to players where to go but he can't kick for sh.. and does too many stupid things, trying to fight Mason Cox was not only dumb and it cost him a week. He should at least start a fight with someone he could beat. In the dark days Fev would start a fight to get the team to fire up, so while I commend his desire to start something he a. picked the wrong target and b. got suspended.

Everybody blows so much wind about Simpson, yes he has been a great servant of the club but his game has very much declined over the past 2 seasons, he is great for super coach, notice how often he kicks to himself then runs the other way out of the goal square, thats where half his kicks come from. In the game against Sydney the swans planned for him by putting 2 players on the mark and on the first occasion he turned over the ball resulting in a goal to sydney, the 2nd time they caused a stoppage in the pocket and he didn't kick out for the rest of the night. In terms of leadership like murphy he is introverted and it is not natural for him to speak like a captain.

Cripps and Doc are the 2 guys that have to be looked at and while the club may be waiting till the end of the season to decide, Murphy needs to step down let Cripps take over now and take the pressure off himself.

 

[Love the Drake]

Wow. Great analysis!

Averaging a whopping 10.8 points per second quarter...

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Updated to include Round 17

 

[Jabba73]

Updated to include Round 17

You’re not helping









Thanks anyway

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I'll do up a red time one as well, although red time is open to interpretation. Maybe after 25min mark of quarters.

Had a quick look at red time in a few games and it didn't seem to indicate too much in terms of us suffering in red time, so I decided not to bother with this. I remember one year where red time was killing us.