Prediction Changes for Round 5 vs Sydney

[HoneyBadger35]

Would've easily preferred Hough over Rotham but who knows the rationale behind the decision.

Height with no Gov. I get it, albeit it’s not exciting give Rotham’s recent form and how exciting Hough has been in patches.

 

[Shuestar13]

Height and experience is my guess.

Yep. Big opportunity for Josh to step up, home has been shown some faith by the MC, not a good start to the year but it can be turned around. I hope he does well.

 

[Rowan18]

On paper, this team is very close to our B22. It will be interesting to see how we fit Gaff and Allen back in. It really looks like Allen will probably force JK into the 2s (as I really hope they won't be putting him into the ruck and dropping Dixon/Williams).

Gaff is the hard one. Naish has well and truly earnt his spot, so do we drop Nelson? Or Rotham? That would require Shuey/Yeo to play HB. I wouldn't want to drop a HFF unless Kelly or Shuey take the role.

 

[bzparkes]

Height with no Gov. I get it, albeit it’s not exciting give Rotham’s recent form and how exciting Hough has been in patches.

I though that's what Edwards came in for? Don't see how we 'lose' height, considering he's taller than Gov in the first place and and Sydney don't exactly have tall forwards of great renown, now that Franklin's out.

 

[Keys]

Cripps has a terrible record returning after a layoff. The only thing I can think of is that Simpson is itching to release Rioli in the midfield. The only way I can rationalise the twin shocks of Xon out, Cripps in.

Cripps has played -
2021 - 22 of 23 games
2020 - 14 of 18 games
2019 - 19 of 24 games
2018 - 25 of 25 games
2017 - 21 of 24 games
2016 - 23 of 23 games
2015 - 25 of 25 games
2014 - 19 of 22 games

Games returning from a layoff -
R9/2017 - coming back from 3 weeks out - 7D, 0G, 6T (72% TOG)
R3/2019 - first game for season - 18D, 4G, 1T (77% TOG)
R21/2019 - coming back from 3 weeks out - 11D, 0G, 5T (75% TOG)
EF/2020 - coming back from 3 weeks out - 17D, 1G, 5T (84% TOG)

Reality is he doesn’t miss many games and there’s 2 poor games there, 1 solid game and 1 very good game

The best was R3 of 2019 that wasn’t dissimilar to this year when he had a preseason injury to recover from and came straight back in. The other 3 games he came back after 3 weeks off and may have come back too soon

I’m not too sure there’s enough of a sample size of games there to say he has a terrible record when returning from a layoff when he has a 50% record of playing at least serviceably when doing so

 

[Lia]

XON bit stiff, plays his best game by some margin and is dropped.

 

[bzparkes]

XON bit stiff, plays his best game by some margin and is dropped.

Always going to happen but Xon's best game is an average game by Shuey/Kelly/Yeo standards.

His game last week needs to be the norm moving forward, not the outlier.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Interested to see if we kicked 9.8 last week instead of an insanely accurate 14.3 whether people would still be melting that Elliot Yeo

6

Elliot Yeo

Age

32

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.5

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.5

5star

CL

3.0

4star

D

18.9

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

5.8

5star

CL

5.5

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.6

3star

CL

1.4

4star

(played WAFL), Luke Shuey

13

Luke Shuey

Age

35

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

10.7

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.9

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

18.7

4star

K

10.8

4star

HB

7.8

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

4.3

5star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.8

5star

CL

1.4

4star

(supposedly a chance for Round 1, picked a month later) and Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

(BOG preseason and played two games from four) were being picked.

Our midfield options last week was about as all time bad as it gets. Now, given the game that we did see, O’Neill was stiff as. I would have left Cripps to play WAFL for a week and kept O’Neill.

Beyond that the changes couldn’t be more obvious and aren’t anything like rushing back underdone players like many are suggesting.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Always going to happen but Xon's best game is an average game by Shuey/Kelly/Yeo standards.

His game last week needs to be the norm moving forward, not the outlier.

Agreed entirely. It is hard to make it the norm when you deliver it and then don’t get a chance do back it up though.

 

[ep2018]

We should win with that team. I'd have had Cripps play seconds before coming straight in tho. Sydney are average without Hickey. And no Buddy to mince us.

 

[bzparkes]

Agreed entirely. It is hard to make it the norm when you deliver it and then don’t get a chance do back it up though.

Oh I agree but other have more, dare I say, 'credits', Naish has been extremely well and Nelson's playing a lockdown role. Not sure who else would've gone out for him to stay in, other than replacing a half-forward and we know he doesn't do well in that role.

Simmo should throw him the challenge and say "If you can do it in the AFL, you can do it consistently in the WAFL". Still has 2 years on his contract anyway, from memory, so what's the rush?

 

[squashface]

Interested to see if we kicked 9.8 last week instead of an insanely accurate 14.3 whether people would still be melting that Elliot Yeo (played WAFL), Luke Shuey (supposedly a chance for Round 1, picked a month later) and Tim Kelly (BOG preseason and played two games from four) were being picked.

Our midfield options last week was about as all time bad as it gets. Now, given the game that we did see, O’Neill was stiff as. I would have left Cripps to play WAFL for a week and kept O’Neill.

Beyond that the changes couldn’t be more obvious and aren’t anything like rushing back underdone players like many are suggesting.

Yeah but we didn’t kick 9.8?

That squad kicked 14.3 and played inspiring football. It’s a huge kick in the guts to drop them for The Boys

Hough out for Rotham
O’Neill out
Cripps straight back in

All of that stinks

 

[amazingjoshy]

Interested to see if we kicked 9.8 last week instead of an insanely accurate 14.3 whether people would still be melting that Elliot Yeo (played WAFL), Luke Shuey (supposedly a chance for Round 1, picked a month later) and Tim Kelly (BOG preseason and played two games from four) were being picked.

Our midfield options last week was about as all time bad as it gets. Now, given the game that we did see, O’Neill was stiff as. I would have left Cripps to play WAFL for a week and kept O’Neill.

Beyond that the changes couldn’t be more obvious and aren’t anything like rushing back underdone players like many are suggesting.

I think that's all most are arguing to be fair. 1 or two changes too many. Dropping all 3 of XON, Hough and West after last week feels just too much. Keeping any one or two of those for a Cripps instead and I think most are happy.

 

[Keys]

Missing from best 22 -
Backs - McGovern, Cole
Forwards - Allen
Mids - Gaff, Sheed (could make a genuine case that Naish on form is in front of these two)
Ruck - Naitanui

Petch and SPS are better than Langdon but aren’t clear best 22

It’s time to prove whether the clubs off season belief they were capable of making finals had any merit - Gov and Nic are the only 2 outs who could indisputably make a difference, possibly Allen as well but him coming back creates structural issues

 

[Monocle]

I have my doubts about Exxon long term, but what more did they want him to show? I think some on here are overvaluing how great his game was, but it was absolutely a good game and the absolute upper limit of what anyone could reasonably expect when he was sent out there.

Comfortably his best game for the club - whether his best is good enough is another chat. We picked him out of desperation, he did as well as you reasonably could to grasp that opportunity.

Most of the changes are fine. Yeo ramped up in the WAFL, Shuey ramped up for weeks. I’m not concerned about them being underdone. Gov and NN out, the changes make themselves.

I’d rather Exxon play for Waterman and be hidden on a HFF, to the tune of eight touches and maybe four centre bounces as a token gesture, than for him to be dropped entirely.

Hate the message. You did as well as anybody could have expected but we also won’t play you next week.

Keep in mind we’re still missing Sheed and Gaff (though Naish was an unexpected boon there). With that said, why did we give Exxon a contract? He’s on the list purely to play when we’re down to our final options? We have to be missing Yeo, Shuey, Kelly, Gaff, Sheed for him to get a gig? Even if he performs as well as he reasonably could we don’t think that’s good enough for a longer look in the team?

Shocking for morale to not back him in, and if I’m being too emotional about it as this is a business, shocking business decision to sign someone they clearly have no intention of using or developing.

Good post Badger and I agree with most of what you wrote.

Baffles me ( has done for several years now ) how Cripps seems to get a free pass, straight back into the side, regardless of how many weeks he has been out.
Actually I have to say that it shits me to the nth degree.

Feel for Xon, he may never be a star, but dropping him now seems so counter productive, sometimes young kids just need a run of half a dozen games in a row to gain confidence and find their feet.

I may be over analysing it ...... BUT ...... the Cripps straight back in move, has the horrible stench of the credits in the bank "crapola" that I had hoped would have been long gone, but alas it appears that the " ghost of premature game inclusions past" has come back to haunt us..

 

[bzparkes]

I think that's all most are arguing to be fair. 1 or two changes too many. Dropping all 3 of XON, Hough and West after last week feels just too much. Keeping any one or two of those for a Cripps instead and I think most are happy.

West apparently 'Couldn't be considered'. HSP maybe?

"Others who could not be considered are young midfielder Luke Edwards who was subbed out at three-quarter time against Collingwood and energetic midfielder Connor West, who was a strong contributor against the Pies."

 

[Dylan82]

A lot of experience coming back in, with some harsh calls made against those who prevailed against the odds last week.

O'Neill, Hough and West could probably argue they did all that was asked of them, only to lose their place in the team.


Personally, I would have kept Hough over Rotham and held Cripps another week for one of O'Neill/West/Petrevski-Seton - but the situation itself is a good one in that it is indicative that the squad does have some depth to it.

This is the kind of problem at selection that we want to be having. Now the big names need to do their job on the field to keep their credits.


If the selected team "clicks" and manages to successfully execute the attacking, corridor-based gameplan from last week it will be a scary proposition for any club to contend with.

 

[Has No Rules]

Hough in his first year has already played 3 games..well ahead of schedule
he made mistakes last week ..Being dropped wont stall his development

cripps probably should spend at least 1 week in the WAFL..Sends the wrong message

 

[Monocle]

Hough in his first year has already played 3 games..well ahead of schedule
he made mistakes last week ..Being dropped wont stall his development

cripps probably should spend at least 1 week in the WAFL..Sends the wrong message.

Indeed it does.

 

[amazingjoshy]

West apparently 'Couldn't be considered'. HSP maybe?

"Others who could not be considered are young midfielder Luke Edwards who was subbed out at three-quarter time against Collingwood and energetic midfielder Connor West, who was a strong contributor against the Pies."

Fair enough. Probably shouldn't have listed him as "omitted" on the team sheet then

 

[Dark Sharks]

Cripps back in is annoying and unfortunately not surprising... when was his last competitive hitout again Simmo?

Hough OUT when he really hasn't done a thing wrong is also a bit stiff, was enjoying watching him play and how he was coping under pressure in defense. I'd have thought he would've been a good matchup for Papley or Gulden. Match them for speed.


Biggest cause for concern for me is i feel we've gone 1 too many midfielders coming back. XON stiff here. Reckon 2 would've been the right way to go, with Kelly coming through the WAFL and XON getting the opportunity to backup a career best game where he finally looked like he actually belonged at the level.

If the midfield intensity is off this week.... yikes. Going to get frosty at Floptus.

 

[Goroyals22]

This credits in the bank team should be told you have 1 month to show the same spirit and fight as the fringe guys have and if we dont go at worst 2-2 then some tickets are stamped and you wont be seen again unless you show wafl form for a period of time regardless of who you are.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Actually not surprised at all with the team selected.

Disappointed that Cripps waltzes back in on zero form. His track record for the first 2 weeks has been poor post return from injury in previous years. Lessons learn! I think not.

Disappointed for XON. Difficult for him going in and out like a dildo. I would like to see him playing midfield along side Yeo and Shuey. Give him 6 weeks certainty and we might just find a player. Given we have 3 defenders on the interchange, not keen on team balance. I would have thought more midfield grunt would be useful.

I’m guessing the wild West is victim to the cavalry arriving restoring law and order. He’s good depth and one with a low ceiling so ok with the non selection.

Hough has had a nice start to his career and shown he has talent. Happy to let him take that back to WAFL and continue developing.

Glad Dixon and Naish are prioritised.

Bailey for NicNat and Harry for Guv are logical straight swaps.

I will be interested to see what Rotham does. He would do well to look at Blakely and learn how to take on the game. ATM - I have no idea what his role in the team is and unsure why he is not delivering on the junior strengths he showed in his draft year

Looking forward to the Apologists defending Simpson and MC.

Wanting answers as to “do we have a new game plan and better ball movement” or was the recent improvement due to playing on instinct.

Glad my niece will be using my ticket so I can stay calm on Friday. I have probably used up my patience going to the AFLW games in the last 4 months.

Got a nice dinner planned with wife in Mt Lawley.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Death, Taxes and Credits

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

O'Neill was part of a midfield that got flogged last week.

Harsh call I guess but ****. I want to win and Shuey or Yeo or Kelly over O'Neill will increase those odds.

Naish is still playing. Jones is still playing. Willie through the guts. Let's see if O'Neill can crack 20 touches in the WAFL.