Asia China's growing influence

[Seeds]

It means not tying ourself to the US by purchasing nuclear subs and not being a major player in world affairs in Asia.
Not fighting above our weight division, being a middleweight instead of a heavyweight.

Just looked up what a middle power is: these are the regions that are currently defined as middle powers: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey.

They all flitter between democracy and authoritarianism (many now much closer to authoritarinism). In a world that is dividing along democratic and autocratic lines you clearly want to be in camp democracy and not be a middle power. If there are two many middle powers then democracy loses and this would be catastrophic.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Just looked up what a middle power is: these are the regions that are currently defined as middle powers: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey.

They all flitter between democracy and authoritarianism (many now much closer to authoritarinism). In a world that is dividing along democratic and autocratic lines you clearly want to be in camp democracy and not be a middle power. If there are two many middle powers then democracy loses and this would be catastrophic.

I don't see how middle power and lack of democracy are related at all.

 

[CD Xbow]

Article from ASPI about PRC police in Kirabati - not good, but probably not as bad as it could be, though the full extant is not known because details of the agreement have not been reached.
.

Why Chinese policing in Pacific island countries is a problem | The Strategist

So now Chinese police are operating in Kiribati. Let’s be clear about why that’s a problem. If Chinese police are in a country, Chinese expatriates are more easily controlled and groups favoured by China can ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

One of the ironies is how much the Chinese traders are disliked by both the Melanesians and Polynesians. They are often the victims of violence by the locals as we saw a few years ago in the Solomon Is. Part of the PRC motivation in getting police in country is to be able to protect their own folks, as well as control & spy on them. The geopolitical funny buggers is just the cream on the top.

 

[nut]

Interesting video…

 

[CD Xbow]

Interesting video…

Yes, a tourist video proves it's all made up. All nasty western propaganda. PRC doesn't lie.
Listen to the Uyghurs talk in these videos.


Many years ago, when we were still best buds with the PRC, I to a went to a talk by two Uyghur 'refugees' who told harrowing tales of violence and abuse by PRC authorities. It was horrendous. I thnk it probably has got worse since then.

 

[nut]

Yes, a tourist video proves it's all made up. All nasty western propaganda. PRC doesn't lie.
Listen to the Uyghurs talk in these videos.


Many years ago, when we were still best buds with the PRC, I to a went to a talk by two Uyghur 'refugees' who told harrowing tales of violence and abuse by PRC authorities. It was horrendous. I thnk it probably has got worse since then.

Were they killing babies in incubators?

 

[CD Xbow]

Were they killing babies in incubators?

No, but the husbands had been detained without trial for years, they were among the 'disappeared'. I think one was later released after 5 years confinement, the other I don't think was ever seen again. There are may accounts like this which you can access if you choose to move beyond posting YouTube propaganda videos.

 

[Rob R]

Interesting video…

Interesting anyone would think a YouTube star (aka narcissistic loser).has more credibility than Amnesty international etc

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[nut]

Interesting anyone would think a YouTube star (aka narcissistic loser).has more credibility than Amnesty international etc

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Amnesty international don’t paint a great picture of the US on multiple human rights issues… ….

 

[CD Xbow]

The Lowy has a recent poll of opinions in Tonga toward the PRC, Oz, NZ and the USA. Tonga was one of the first Pacific nations to switch diplomatic recognition to the PRC and received some big loans. As expected repayment of these is now causing problems. The Tongans had made reasonable plans for repayment but Covid 19 and that big, nasty volcanic eruption upset them. Attitudes in the survey are generally positive to Oz et al and fairly negative to the PRC. I think it's unlikely the Tongans will go down the Solomon Islands route and become antagonistic towards NZ and Oz while cozying up closer with the PRC. They have been burned already. In the case of the Solomon Is, it seems it's a very personal thing with their current PM.

Tongan attitudes to the world | Lowy Institute

A new poll reveals how the Pacific archipelago views US, Chinese and Australian influence.

www.lowyinstitute.org

 

[Rob R]

Amnesty international don’t paint a great picture of the US on multiple human rights issues… ….

That's certainly true, they have a lot of areas to improve- Xi is an order of magnitude worse but the US needs to do much better.

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[sdfc]

Or just go one step further and agree with Keating again lol

Concerned about Taiwan because we are so closely allied to the US and the US has somewhat guaranteed a military response if China moves, ergo Australians fight and die

The Taiwanese deserve the right to plot their own course without the threat of invasion from the PRC.

And they make a shitload of semiconductors.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Just looked up what a middle power is: these are the regions that are currently defined as middle powers: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey.

They all flitter between democracy and authoritarianism (many now much closer to authoritarinism). In a world that is dividing along democratic and autocratic lines you clearly want to be in camp democracy and not be a middle power. If there are two many middle powers then democracy loses and this would be catastrophic.

I don't see how middle power and lack of democracy are related at all.

We are a middle power and a liberal democracy, without the alliance (read lapdog) to sam and chuck we wouldn't be a middle power and the threat of authoritarianism in our society would be much higher. Xi would be tempted to exercise greater influence on Australia, possibly ideologically driven.

Being a democracy and a middle power aren't what you call mutually exclusive.

 

[nut]

How long have we got selling them coal?

 

[Spearman]

It's one thing you've got to give to the Chinese; they do work the long game, and aren't afraid of thinking big. Sure there are catastrophes sometimes, but they will give it a shot. The US is too timid for bold, forward looking moves.

 

[CD Xbow]

Podcast from the ABC talking to Rana Mitter, China expert and PhD supervisor of one Mr K. Rudd. One interesting hazard coming up for the PRC is the national pension fund, which has vastly too little money in it. Rana starts at about the 6 min mark. Worth a listen.

Inside Beijing's Black Box: Is China changing... again? - ABC listen

When it comes to Chinese politics, reading the tea leaves is never easy. In this episode Hamish and Geraldine are joined by Rana Mitter, the man dubbed the 'rockstar' of China studies by former PM Kevin Rudd, to break open the black box of the Politburo and reveal just how stable (or unstable)...

www.abc.net.au

 

[Aussie in exile]

Worrying very worrying and another reason China can't be trusted

China linked to UK cyber-attacks on voter data, Dowden to say

The attacks reportedly led to the personal details of millions of voters being accessed.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[CD Xbow]

A couple of follow up links related to the PRC fingers in Fiji's pie.
Double life of China’s man in Suva could help Australia in the Pacific (archive.is)
The Lowy has an article about how the video was found, written by one of the finders who was working for ASPI*
Where did that Chinese police video come from? | Lowy Institute


* Change one letter in ASPI, reorder a bit and presto! ASIO

 

[Equus]

The Islanders should be making hay during this period of time. Getting the best of both worlds from China and the West. A good leader would hedge bets and use offer from each country as bargaining chips to get more. Finally some investments for the Island country. Finally some action from Australia to tend our "backyard", though I feel in some instances, a little too late.

 

[CD Xbow]

The Islanders should be making hay during this period of time. Getting the best of both worlds from China and the West. A good leader would hedge bets and use offer from each country as bargaining chips to get more. Finally some investments for the Island country. Finally some action from Australia to tend our "backyard", though I feel in some instances, a little too late.

Yes, we did neglect them a bit but things have changed. Mind you, benign neglect may be better for them than becoming a subject of geopolitical interest and strategic competition. Time will tell. Mr Sogavare, the autocratic PM of the Solomon Is has gone all in with the PRC, he's not hedging. It will be interesting to see how that turns out. Remember the Solomon Is has had frequent outbreaks of violence in the past, often directed against Chinese traders. It could get very messy.

Speaking of messy. PNG is a real concern with it's huge population growth (perhaps as high as 17 million) and on going poverty. There is Bougainville independence due in 2027. This is going to be a difficult period. Much as I would like to think the best of our PRC friends, I suspect their interest will only make things worse.

Fiji has ordered PRC police out of Fiji but the policing agreement remains

Fiji's PM kicks out Chinese police amid concerns over growing presence in region

Fiji's prime minister speaks with the ABC about the relationship between China and the Pacific nation as Beijing's role in the country comes under intense scrutiny.

www.abc.net.au

 

[CD Xbow]

ABC has an article about Australia and NZ response to the PRC buying the treaty with the Solomon Islands.

Leaked documents show Australia and New Zealand's 'condescending rhetoric' to 'Pacific family' in response to China-Solomons security pact

A strongly worded document from Tonga's Foreign Affairs Ministry gives insight into the Pacific nation's view of Australia and New Zealand's diplomatic efforts.

www.abc.net.au

In defence of the somewhat panicked response by our governments, I suspect the deal was done with the utmost secrecy and perhaps some falsely reassuring words in the lead up. Still, it was a very big shot in a war, not a kinetic war (yet) but a war nonetheless. This article suggests Mr Sogavare may have benefitted from his friends just a little too much.

Solomon Islands PM Has Millions in Property, Raising Questions Around Wealth - OCCRP

The prime minister of the Pacific Island nation has recently gone on a home-building spree, constructing eight valuable new houses in and around the capital city of Honiara.

www.occrp.org

 

[Not Important]

it’s cos the powerful, influential, well-organised, and intimidating israeli propaganda machine has the politicians and much of the media under its thumb.

 

[CD Xbow]

The party of one. Article reviews a book looking at Xi rise and his dismantling of potential competition and safe guards against an 'over concentration' of power. I guess autocracy is the spirit of the times but I can't help feeling the cult of personality will get him in the end. .

From the bookshelf: ‘Party of One’ | The Strategist

Held on 5-11 March, China’s National People’s Congress, the most important event in the country’s annual political calendar, was remarkable mainly for how unremarkable it was this year. Premier Li Qiang’s report on the work ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

"China faces myriad challenges, from a sluggish economy, a huge property bubble and a demographic time bomb to deeply indebted local governments. But the fact that it is run by one man who is unwilling either to share power or to designate a successor may yet prove to be its biggest problem."

 

[Rob R]

it’s cos the powerful, influential, well-organised, and intimidating israeli propaganda machine has the politicians and much of the media under its thumb.

Because Xi has occupied the territory of neighbours, threatened to kill millions in an invasion of peaceful democratic Taiwan, murdered Indian soldiers, threatened Japan, threatened Philippines, threatened nations who dare to travel through international waters, imprisoned and murdered millions of minority groups members, launched cyber attacks on us, imprisoned our citizens for daring to have an opinion, cut off trade for asking questions about how a virus that killed hundred million plus was spread and why Xi lied and arrested the brave Chinese people who tried to warn the world - all in our region.



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[Aussie in exile]

Chinas economy in meltdown. It couldn't happen to a nicer people than the CCP

MSN