Analysis Close losses

[Smoooothy]

Sorry, it was meant to be light hearted. Maybe it didn't come across that way. For what it's worth, I do think we're headed broadly in the right direction and agree that these close losses are, to an extent, a byproduct of inexperience.

I do think it's funny though that "Geelong 2006" is such a beacon of hope - I honestly do reckon every year since 2009 someone on here has compared us to Geelong 2006.

apologies then mate. i mustn't have gotten that vibe!

i was simply pointing out that geelong - which is the sort of club that all clubs should be aspiring to become (3 premierships and a shitton of success in the past 8 years) - was a basket case prior to 2007. bomber thompson was very close to getting the sack early in 2007 and from memory they announced themselves by belting richmond by 160 odd points. they didn't look back from there.

when it clicks, thats how quickly it can happen.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

apologies then mate. i mustn't have gotten that vibe!

My bad. Most people don't get when I'm trying to be funny. It's tough.

i was simply pointing out that geelong - which is the sort of club that all clubs should be aspiring to become (3 premierships and a shitton of success in the past 8 years) - was a basket case prior to 2007. bomber thompson was very close to getting the sack early in 2007 and from memory they announced themselves by belting richmond by 160 odd points. they didn't look back from there.

when it clicks, thats how quickly it can happen.

I get your point, but it's also worth remembering that Geelong spent a lot of time and energy building towards 2007. They made a prelim in 2004 and were a Nick Davis away from doing it again in 2005. 2006 was an aberration which really arose out of off-field issues at the club. Arguably, that belting of Richmond kick-started what they already had going on anyway.

So I agree it CAN click quickly, but I hope at the club they're not just assuming that it will, because that's what happened at Geelong.

For what it's worth, I think we have a lot to be excited about. The only players in our team who are older than 27 are two players who, IMO, make our team worse. Our best player is just finding some touch after an ACL but giving every sign he will get back to his best, and our second best player is struggling and has been all year (yeh, you know what I did there). There is no reason we should not improve year on year for the next 4-5 years, as long as we hang onto everyone.

But I do think we need to make good decisions off-field (both in the boardroom and in the footy dept) to make sure we stay on the right trajectory.

 

[mattymac]

Leadership. We don't have anything close to Selwood. Brutally calm and efficient under fire. It's contagious.

 

[PCORF]

I would not be surprised if we have the worst record by under 12 points or less over the past 12 seasons (since 2003). I am guessing we won 30% or so of those games in that time.

 

[PCORF]

Lots of young players with not much experience in tight ones. I think we had a similar record last year. Lost a majority of our games by 3 goals or less. It will improve. Its not being mentally weak its all about learning to handle the situation and confidence. It will come!

But we did much better in 2012 in those situations as the team had much more belief. In the preliminary final even though we lost by 5, we fought hard to the very end but I think a loss like that has really affected us since then. Only won 3 games by 2 kicks or less over the last 2 seasons, lost 10 or so.

 

[Heafy83]

But we did much better in 2012 in those situations as the team had much more belief. In the preliminary final even though we lost by 5, we fought hard to the very end but I think a loss like that has really affected us since then. Only won 3 games by 2 kicks or less over the last 2 seasons, lost 10 or so.

We had much more experience in our side then. Stiffy, Doughty, VB, Vince, Reilly, Rutten, Callinan. They all played that game.

Forgot Porps and Thommo as well

 

[PCORF]

We had much more experience in our side then. Stiffy, Doughty, VB, Vince, Reilly, Rutten, Callinan. They all played that game.

Forgot Porps and Thommo as well

Not to mention Tippett.

 

[VSTone]

Each of the individual defensive players in the side need to be scrutinized and can bare some blame for our inconsistency.
we bleed too many simple goals at times...

To me the defensive craft/mindset of the current defenders keeps them too mindful of their direct opponent and they get sucked away from the contest / intercept all too easily preferring to keep their man tied up, this is where well drilled forward line oppositions who can create space inside 50 and scoring opportunities thrive. this is especially relevent from centre line restarts and midfield throw in's.

***Solution - at midfield restarts back ourselves to read the incoming ball in flight or dispute and get to it before they do... with defensive minded run and cover from the midfielders and team mates... this should be a half backs & back pockets bread and butter...

and secondly,
all too often we seem to go one-on-one at deep defense restarts (ballups/throw ins) in which the opposition sits correctly on their defensive side facing the goals, we generally follow man on man style and are caught too often on the offside of the pack at the contest, it gets squeezed out and allows them space to attack/kick at goals...

***Solution - have a couple of goal sided defenders always at deep defensive throw ins... it's the onballers job to get the ball and bottle it up, the defenders need to defend.

this should at least stop gifting the opposition goals and occasionally a string of goals.

this could create a goal or too advantage for us quite easily... and maybe just maybe we could have been challenging for a top 4 spot with some enthusiasm...
all is not lost, its not a huge revolutionary change... get it right and we might be able to win 6 in a row!

Basic stuff really and we don't do it well - the good strategist coaches pick us to pieces too often with 101 stuff...

 

[pjcrows]

Unless we become Carlton or North, in which case we're not very good.

We are the new North.

 

[Sanders]

yeah thanks buddy..

it's campaigners like yourself that make this board completely intolerable. getting made to feel like a ****** everytime i dare to say something remotely positive

Something dumb positive is the same as something dumb negative

These are not qualities

 

[Southerntakeover]

apologies then mate. i mustn't have gotten that vibe!

i was simply pointing out that geelong - which is the sort of club that all clubs should be aspiring to become (3 premierships and a shitton of success in the past 8 years) - was a basket case prior to 2007. bomber thompson was very close to getting the sack early in 2007 and from memory they announced themselves by belting richmond by 160 odd points. they didn't look back from there.

when it clicks, thats how quickly it can happen.

Geelong identified there was a problem. They didn't count on things 'clicking'.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Stats are deceiving. Just off the top of my head we kept getting smashed early, clawed our way back and then just lost the games. I'm not sure if it was mental weakness late that cost us the games.

Yes having decent starts & not playing catchup would help… but we still lack composure at the end. Imo, it's because we lack experience & have few experienced heads around. Same reason roo says we lack onfield leadership. Too many players under 50 games.

Compare to Geelong & watch their wise heads lift when the game is up for grabs - selwood, Stevie j, etc nearly always.

Reckon Sloaney does now, but we need more to do so when the game is on the line. Reckon. Uninjured danger, sauce & fully rehabilitated tex can do so too.

 

[AFC979810]

I get your point, but it's also worth remembering that Geelong spent a lot of time and energy building towards 2007. They made a prelim in 2004 and were a Nick Davis away from doing it again in 2005. 2006 was an aberration which really arose out of off-field issues at the club. Arguably, that belting of Richmond kick-started what they already had going on anyway.

Great post. We are nowhere near a Geelong of 2006 this year. That side was immensely talented and played some awesome footy in 2004 / 2005. I firmly believe that the players got ahead of themselves and it all fell to shit for them in 2006 (which served as a massive wake up call for the whole organisation in the offseason).

We haven't had back to back finals series since 2008/2009. We are a hell of a long way off of being a Geelong.

 

[Coopers]

We sucked at it last year too.

 

[Crow_Magnon]

As a matter of interest last year we played in 7 games decided by under two goals....3W and 4L....marginally better than this year. One suspects this weeks game will be another. Interesting that we beat North by under two goals last year both meetings, so let's hope it continues.

 

[Crows4Eva]

Had the exact same issue last year. Lost at least four by less than 2 goals. It's clearly a mental issue with the players, inexperience could be part of it too. Unfortunately when the pressure's on we fall apart and it's a huge problem.

 

[Mattrox]

Had the exact same issue last year. Lost at least four by less than 2 goals. It's clearly a mental issue with the players, inexperience could be part of it too. Unfortunately when the pressure's on we fall apart and it's a huge problem.

Lack of onfield leadership, too much left to too few.

The coaches also need to develop resilient players with the right attitude and display behaviors which reflect that attitude. There is also a balance to strike between allowing players to atone for mistakes and being dropped as a consequence. Last year we seemed to do too much of the former. This year we have been better, but still a way to go. When players are accountable, they are more likely to respond.

 

[Moonwatcher]

apologies then mate. i mustn't have gotten that vibe!

i was simply pointing out that geelong - which is the sort of club that all clubs should be aspiring to become (3 premierships and a shitton of success in the past 8 years) - was a basket case prior to 2007. bomber thompson was very close to getting the sack early in 2007 and from memory they announced themselves by belting richmond by 160 odd points. they didn't look back from there.

when it clicks, thats how quickly it can happen.

I remember the Crows pumped Geelong in 2006 and Thompson said we were in a different stratosphere. I remember thinking during that game that Geelong were going to be the next powerhouse of the competition when it falls together (mainly converting run from defense into a mark at CHF). It was obvious with Brisbane too when we beat them the week before the 'if it bleeds' Essendon match. I don't get the same feeling about the Crows.

 

[smoovy]

Even if you look at the games that weren't close losses, we have been in every single game this year in the third qtr.

In fact there wouldn't be a game where I would say we are no chance of winning, likewise there isn't a game where I think there is no chance of losing.

We are not a good team if you have a bad heart.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Winning close games is part good fortune, part belief.

When you've been in the situation a lot of times before and have come out of it successfully, you simply believe you will win and the trait becomes a habit. See Geelong.

North Melbourne in the 90s were another team who were unbelievable in close games.

Three things come to the fore in these situations. Leadership. Cool heads. Footy IQ.

How often do you see the seriously good teams seemingly get lucky free kicks right at the pointy end of games? It's not a coincidence.

 

[weneverland]

Our poor Handballing and kicking skills are also a factor I believe. Players with elite skills seem to have more time and make less errors when under pressure. They rarely turn the ball over. That certainly helps in saving games. All season we have been killed by opposition scores from turnovers. Against North, we again squandered opportunities to score and put ourselves under pressure by handballs and kicks that didn't hit their targets. We lost against West Coast and the Tigers because they wanted the ball more. In some games we can compensate for our lack of skills by going harder at the ball and applying lots of pressure e.g. against Poort. Against North, although we were just as hard at the football as them we didn't have the skills to snatch a victory.

Although our coach would like us to play like Geelong, as was said earlier, we are nothing like Geelong. Part of their success is due to their team being full of skilled players who can execute under pressure.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

We are the new North.

If we finish 9th again we are the new Richmond

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

We lack belief and with every close game we lies the bigger the hole becomes

 

[baldandbroke]

I think trying to link what has happened in the past with what is going to happen in the future is crazy.

Footy doesn't follow a pattern, it's too complex.

You need a lot of things to come together to become a powerful AFL team, and we only have some of those pieces at the moment.

 

[CrazyJoeDevola]

I cant think of us winning the close ones consistently since the years of "stickability"