Contested Possession Count - Perhaps its deliberate?

[topic97]

Ok, well we all know that we still havent won the contested possession count as yet all year, but watching a bit more closely last night I noticed something a little different to the way we are playing now compared to last year.

It was obvious at numerous points that in a contest our boys were more inclined to tap the ball to advantage or other players instead of taking direct possession of the ball - therefore still taking the possession but not counted as contested.

We are still winning the overall disposal count and won again last night by 10 or so.

So perhaps its Scotty trying something different and loosing the contested possession counts isnt as bad as it looks on paper?

 

[kanyewest]

I just posted something about this in another thread.

Basically it went like this: if that's what we are doing the season is over. I'm all for innovation but this is madness! When finals roll around this kind of finicky and precious play gets exposed. What matters are the 50-50 contests and who wins more of them. That is why soft sides never do well in finals.

We have prided ourselves on contested ball in the last 5 years or whatever it has been, so we can't simply pretend it is not important when we start struggling in that area. I don't think it's any coincidence that our decline in contested ball has occurred alongside our midfield getting beaten a number of times. It is crucial, especially in high pressure games.

So I like the positive thinking but I really hope it's not what is happening. We need to fix this area rather than think we can just ignore it.

 

[redally]

If we had access to individual player contested possessions from this season to compare with previous seasons individual stats it may become clear which players are down and help us to see a clearer picture of what's going wrong.

 

[Maydok]

I also heard we are deliberately trying to kick behinds from set shots at goal, we're placing an emphasis on putting pressure on our defenders by creating unexpected turnovers due to poor disposal, and we're giving the opposition a 2 second head start when we spread from stoppages.

It's all part of some master plan apparently.

 

[archilino]

Didn't Tom Harley say on Friday he thinks the older players are pulling their weight re contested possessions but the youngin's aren't?

 

[dazbroncos]

If you listen to the SEN interview with CS he makes almost the point of the OP.

Not withstanding that if you lose the CP count by a massive margin, you will probably lose the game consistently.

However, you can have a CP that goes straight to an opposition player for a clearance - so what real value is that stat in regards to direct team success.

CS mentioned - in a round about way - that whilst the CP is something they recognise they are not selling out the game plan just to increase the CP stat count - rather they are focusing on efficiency of ball use.

He would go further than that but I reckon there is something they are doing - and its a work in progress but just like the forward press, zone and the phone box, it takes times to enforce and even longer for the opposition to pick up on.

Its an interesting tactic and with CS's approach to everything else, I for one am certain to give him the latitude and time to test his theory. Especially if he is training up the new breed of Geelong players with under 20 games in how whatever it is works...

Just a theory from a tired old prick on the other side of the world but might be right...

Go Catters

 

[topic97]

Perhaps its the fact that due to varcoe/wojak being out of the team forcing players who usually play inside to play outside to bridge the gap and taking away the contested firepower?

But I have a feeling, reading between the lines of scotts consistent comments that they know what they need to do to rectify it has me beleiving that it may be deliberate and that once the preferred side is back on the park it may all of a sudden change.4

Who knows, but if we get beaten on the contested count next week there is something very wrong.....

 

[archilino]

Who knows, but if we get beaten on the contested count next week there is something very wrong.....

But if we have a 12 goal win yet lose the CP count would it matter?

 

[footscore]

perhaps Lingy was the contested ball king and he was so underrated universally that it's only till he's left we find ourselves losing that stat every single week

I think Scott's just trying out a couple of different things at the moment as we really don't want to be giving the opposition to much insight into what we will be doing in finals.
We have had a lot of inside knowledge go to other clubs in recent years and at the cost of losing matches here or there, best to hold his cards up his sleeve as chances are we will face one of those teams in a final

 

[David the Cat]

Perhaps its the fact that due to varcoe/wojak being out of the team forcing players who usually play inside to play outside to bridge the gap and taking away the contested firepower?

But I have a feeling, reading between the lines of scotts consistent comments that they know what they need to do to rectify it has me beleiving that it may be deliberate and that once the preferred side is back on the park it may all of a sudden change.4

Who knows, but if we get beaten on the contested count next week there is something very wrong.....

Not out of the question....whatever, the return of TV, Wojo, and Menzel will put a completely different complexion on the Geelong side..add Motlop and Skinner and you have real pace there.

I have no doubt that is a factor in CS's game plan for our tilt at the finals after the bye. We will know where we truly stand with six to play....

 

[Conan Troutman]

If we had access to individual player contested possessions from this season to compare with previous seasons individual stats it may become clear which players are down and help us to see a clearer picture of what's going wrong.

Here's the contested possessions for 2011-2012.
Players not playing this year are listed at the bottom...

[U]			[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]2012	av[/COLOR]	[COLOR="Red"]2011	av[/COLOR]	Difference[/U]
Joel Selwood		116	14.5	253	12.7	 1.8
Joel Corey		99	11.0	228	10.9	 0.1
James Kelly		61	10.2	240	10.0	 0.2
Allen Christensen	71	10.1	142	7.5	 2.6
Jimmy Bartel		75	9.4	212	8.8	 0.6
Harry Taylor		68	7.6	145	6.0	 1.6
Paul Chapman		66	7.3	191	8.3	-1.0
Steve Johnson		65	7.2	187	8.1	-0.9
Corey Enright		65	7.2	152	6.6	 0.6
Tom Hawkins		58	6.4	134	7.4	-1.0
Andrew Mackie		56	6.2	137	6.2	 0.0
Taylor Hunt		48	6.0	68	5.2	 0.8
Steven Motlop		53	5.9	14	3.5	 2.4
James Podsiadly		52	5.8	152	6.6	-0.8
Mitch Duncan		47	5.2	112	5.3	-0.1
Mathew Stokes		28	4.7	172	7.8	-3.1
Josh Hunt		27	4.5	104	4.7	-0.2
Trent West		39	4.3	47	5.2	-0.9
Jesse Stringer		25	4.2	0	0.0	
Cameron Guthrie		35	3.9	7	3.5	 0.4
Matthew Scarlett	15	3.8	118	5.4	-1.6
Tom Gillies		15	3.8	4	2.0	 1.8
Tom Lonergan		29	3.6	92	4.4	-0.8
Shannon Byrnes		14	3.5	17	3.4	 0.1
Orren Stephenson	13	3.3	-	-	
Billie Smedts		15	2.5	0	0.0	
George Horlin-Smith	4	2.0	0	0.0	
Jonathan Simpkin	2	2.0	0	0.0	
Mitch Brown		2	1.0	6	3.0	-2.0
Dawson Simpson		0	0.0	7	7.0	
David Wojcinski		0	0.0	122	5.5	
Simon Hogan		0	0.0	5	5.0	
Travis Varcoe		0	0.0	111	4.6	
Daniel Menzel		0	0.0	80	4.4	
Nathan Vardy		0	0.0	35	3.9	
Josh Cowan		0	0.0	7	2.3	
George Burbury		0	0.0	0	0.0	
Jordan Schroder		0	0.0	0	0.0	
Josh Walker		0	0.0	0	0.0	
Ryan Bathie		0	0.0	0	0.0	
Cameron Eardley		0	0.0	-	-	
Jackson Sheringham	0	0.0	-	-	
Jed Bews		0	0.0	-	-	
Joel Hamling		0	0.0	-	-	
Jordan Murdoch		0	0.0	-	-	
Lincoln McCarthy	0	0.0	-	-	
Mark Blicavs		0	0.0	-	-	
Shane Kersten		0	0.0	-	-	
Brad Ottens		-	-	176	8.8	
Cameron Ling		-	-	175	8.3	
Darren Milburn		-	-	88	6.3	
Cameron Mooney		-	-	39	4.9	
Ben Johnson		-	-	0	0.0	
Jack Weston		-	-	0	0.0	
Marcus Drum		-	-	0	0.0	
Mark Blake		-	-	0	0.0

 

[topic97]

But if we have a 12 goal win yet lose the CP count would it matter?

I would assume it would - given the fact that we will be playing a side with a bunch of skinny kids that our boys should be able to easily dominate in a contest.

But having said that, we still dont know what the real game plan is so we may look to attack them from rebound off ineffective disposals.

We need to pump them though, I want the huge % boost so we can bump the Hawks out of the 8

perhaps Lingy was the contested ball king and he was so underrated universally that it's only till he's left we find ourselves losing that stat every single week

I think Scott's just trying out a couple of different things at the moment as we really don't want to be giving the opposition to much insight into what we will be doing in finals.
We have had a lot of inside knowledge go to other clubs in recent years and at the cost of losing matches here or there, best to hold his cards up his sleeve as chances are we will face one of those teams in a final

Theres no denying that lingy threw his huge body on the line game after game, perhaps it has been the difference?

I mean, going on that chart tima posted, he averaged 8.3 a game and we only lost the count by 10 on friday.... not to mention Otto averaging the same

 

[Aussiemac82]

Was going over the numbers the other day as well. I don't really like to mention it because it is done to death, but even the numbers of CP for retirees can be deceiving.

Say Linga and otto avg 15 between them a game, the work they do around the pack to allow others to get CP has been lost as well.

I am not as concerned as the media experts want me to be. I back our coaching panel in 100%

 

[Senatorguesty]

I havent read all this thread but this is my theory.
I was talking to a mate of mine about the Cats a few weeks ago and came up with this reason why our contested possies are down and our run and carry (and defending against it) has been ordinary. I said that obviously we lack Varcoe, Wojo etc so we lose that run and carry, to compensate against those missing we have to play guys like Chappy, Kelly, Corey etc who are GENUINE contested footy winners and get them to try to play an outside roll, problem is they arent as good as Trav, Wojo etc so they dont cover that roll that well AND on top of that we now lose them winning the inside ball so we lose contested possies/clearances etc. So its a rob Peter to feed Paul except Paul is still hungry and now Peter is dying of starvation.
Add to that how many new kids we are playing and those kind of figures are almost expected. We get guys like Varcoe, Wojo, Menz back in the side and others like Kelly, Scarlo etc CONSISTANTLY in the side and we will see an almost instant change of stats imo.
Thats why I think Scotty is saying that they know the problem, they realise we are using players to cover a roll that they arent that good at, which in turn robs their natural roll, we can all agree the Cats are TRYING, they still have the intensity so I dont think they have dropped off, I just think we have lost too many players who play a very important roll and cant cope.
Also, Dinga and Otto are huge outs, 2 out and out champions.

edit: I think Bundy out has hurt too but I think, and maybe from some inside knowledge, that with Varcoe coming back and Motlop playing some good footy (aswell as Menz returning) the MC see Stevie as a creative high forward flank/winger at times. With TV coming off a very short pre-season (or not at all) he wont have the run in his legs, so play him deep forward. Its an option anyway.

 

[DanA]

I think it's mostly just down to playing kids. Last year according to Walls we finished 5th for contested possessions with +174. That's almost 8 possesions more than our oppositions. This year we are 16th (-12 per game). That's 20 contested possessions down on last season per game. Note this is differential so it's directly compared to opposition.


Smedts 2.5
Guthrie 3.9
Gillies 3.8
West 4.3
T-Hunt 6
Total = 20.5

vs
Varcoe 4.6
Wojak 5.5
Milburn 6.3
Ottens 8.8
Ling 8.3
Total = 33.5

Difference = 13.5

That's the lions share of it right there. Directly accounting for over half of the difference and when you consider the defensive improvement from the bottom guys and service provided by a good ruckmen, it's probably more.

We're obviously not getting Ling, Ottens or Milburn back so we've got to find that elsewhere. It hasn't helped that we've missed key midfielders all season and worse relying on Gillies & Smedts instead of Scarlett & Wojak.

I think take all the kids out bar Motlop & perhaps Guthrie and we'll be a good contested footy side but we need Simpson to provide something to be one of the best. He's not a kid anymore at 23, we need him to make an impact.

 

[David the Cat]

Skinner? Whats his contested possessions look like?

 

[catstorm]

Geelong took 48 more marks then the Bulldogs on Friday 48 and have taken more marks then our opponent in every game bar 2.

Could the reason we lost contested possession be that although the Dogs could not take the marks they were kicking to positions that favored there team 1v2 2v3 type situations, where as when we kick to advantage we simply take the marks.

 

[footscore]

interesting stats

+ contested possessions to me just mean players want the ball more, hungrier, experienced players (not a bunch of 5-15 gamers), fitter, desire is up, interested, playing to the coaches game plan.

Cats are getting set for the 2nd half of the year as those sides above us have all the pretty stats to look upon and allow the media to drool over , when push comes to shove and it starts to get serious....Cats will be stepping up the game and soon those stats will begin to take shape.

 

[numbwombat]

Skinner? Whats his contested possessions look like?

25 from 6 games, though take out 2 games as sub at 2 contested possies in ~25% gametime and his average is a bit over 5. Last 3 games he got 6 vs dogs, 2 in less than a quarter vs pies, 4 in the crows debacle. So effectively above all the other kids in DanA's list other than T Hunt.

 

[footscore]

do you guys reckon Taylor Hunt is just an old fashioned tough footballer?

I may be one of only a few in here who can see it but he seriously looks like he loves it when it's physical and applying a couple of heavy bumps every game.
Rooke use to be a player like that and Hunt has all the aggro you'd want in a young bloke coming through our system (Selwood would be impressed).

6 contested possies per game highlights he's amongst the thick of it as well

 

[numbwombat]

Yeah, he doesn't seem to mind heavy traffic! And seems very solid already, a few more preseasons and he could be as physically daunting as Rooke/Chappy IMO.

Although I was hoping Hogan would pinch his tagging role this season and leave Hunt to play on a wing or half-back/-forward flank. Liked him a lot since that goal in his first game, I can't remember exactly how it went but something like Selwood roving it from the centre bounce, handballed it to someone who handballed it to Hunt who then took 2-3 steps and slotted it with a thumping kick from outside 50. Not a bad start

 

[David the Cat]

thanks for that wombat. I think skinner will on;y get better with confidence.

And yes...THunt can kick it. What a beautiful shot for goal that was. If he can kick a few goals in his "run with" role, that makes him all the more valuable.

Will play a lot of games for Geelong, and I think Skinner might too. He's a real find.

 

[Aussiemac82]

do you guys reckon Taylor Hunt is just an old fashioned tough footballer?

I may be one of only a few in here who can see it but he seriously looks like he loves it when it's physical and applying a couple of heavy bumps every game.
Rooke use to be a player like that and Hunt has all the aggro you'd want in a young bloke coming through our system (Selwood would be impressed).

6 contested possies per game highlights he's amongst the thick of it as well

Love the way he goes about it, and hope he is part of our next premiership. That "mongrel" element is so important when games are in the clinches. He seems like he does love the contest, i think he has developed a bit more size in the pre-season which has seen a boost in confidence. He's only going to get better.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Love the way he goes about it, and hope he is part of our next premiership. That "mongrel" element is so important when games are in the clinches. He seems like he does love the contest, i think he has developed a bit more size in the pre-season which has seen a boost in confidence. He's only going to get better.

Agree , he was fantastic against Griffin and deserves more recognition. Has the potential to be a super player as not only can he be a stopper but he can hurt the other way and will do more of this as he gains confidence.
I also thought Stephenson showed some encouraging signs and reckon his skills are very impressive for a big bloke.

 

[Aussiemac82]

Stephenson showed more last week. Confident he can give more around the stoppages and get his hands on the ball a bit more. I love the way Maric has gone about it this year and think Orren can do the same. If he can raise his avg from 3ish up to around 7 or 8sh that would be a big help.