Coronavirus Betting Thread

[Del125763]

Alot of sports are closing down so I thought we need something to keep betting on. All odds courtesy from Smarkets Betting Exchange. (18/3/20)

Event 1: Will the 2020 Olympics take place on July 24th?
Yes $4.40 v $1.22 No

Event 2: Will Liverpool be declared the winners of the 2019/20 Premier League before another Premier League fixture is played (on or after 17th March 2020)
Yes $2.10 v $1.74 No

Event 3: Wimbledon- Will a Men's singles 1st round match take place on Centre court on 29 June 2020?
Yes $7 v $1.03 No

Event 4: Will the Monaco F1 GP start on 22nd May 2020?
Yes $34.00 v $1.0001 No

Event 5: Will Eurovision grand final take place at the Rotterdam Ahoy centre on 16 May 2020?
Yes $9.60 v NA No

Event 6: WHO Public Health emergency Declaration. The World Health Organization Public Health Emergency (PHEIC) declaration pertaining to the Wuhan crisis (COVID-19) to be in effect on 6 May 2020.
Yes $1.02 v $12.50 No

Event 7: UK Horse racing to resume before 1st May 2020?
no liquidity in market yet

Event 8: British Airways to resume commercial flights to Mainland China
Before 1 May 2020 $7
Between 1 May 2020 to 31 May 2020 $3.95
Between 1 June 2020 to 30 June 2020 $3.95
1 July 2020 or Later $1.97

Event 9: Air Canada to resume flights to mainland China
Or or before 30 April 2020 $2.30
1 May 2020 or later $1.51

Event 10: American Airlines to resume commercial flights to mainland China
On or before 30 June 2020 $1.54
1 July 2020 or later $2.24

Event 11: Delta to resume commercial flights to mainland China
On or before 31 May 2020 $1.82
1 June 2020 or later $1.82

Event 12: Finnair to resume commercial flights to mainland China
On or before 30 April 2020 $3.35
1 May 2020 or after $1.24

Event 13: China's year on year growth rate GDP For Quarter 1 of 2020
Less than 4.0% $1.05
4.0%-4.5% $10
4.6% to 5% $100
5.1% to 5.5% $100
5.6% and above $100



if you find any interesting Coronavirus betting markets, please post odds or links.

 

[Del125763]

Betfair has better odds on the Olympics beginning on July24th, compared to Smarkets for time being if anyone interested.

Yes $5.30 v $1.21 no

 

[iluvparis]

The $1.20 no looks a complete gift doesn't it?

 

[Del125763]

Yes it does. The $1.20 looks good.

Japan seem to be still confident as a host country this will go ahead though. The Australian PM today issues a level 4 warning for Australian residents not to travel internationally. I personally don't know the qualification methods for other sports. I think there are possibly still some sports where qualifying is still taking place. But for womens football, the Matildas v China, Matildas v Vietnam matches were completed under a cloud. It would be irresponsible of the IOC if the games were to go on.

Could see the next best option of the Olympics getting pushed back at a later date but that will stuff the whole sporting calendar off - for some of these professional sporting athletes.

 

[Del125763]

Anyway if bookmakers or exchanges are reading this thread, here are some Coronavirus betting markets I'd like to see from an Australian perspective.

1. Will the AFL season have the fully completed 17 home and away season?
2. Will Australia experience a GDP recession in 2020? (Source from World Bank) Australia last had a recession in 1991
3. Will the AFL season get to the Finals stage?
4. Will there by a vaccine for the coronavirus before December 31st 2020? (use WHO as official source)
5. Will QANTAS resume flights to Mainland China before 1st July 2020?
6. Will the Melbourne Cup start on its scheduled date?
7. Will the Australian test cricket team play a match either overseas or home this season?
8. Will Scott Morrison last the year? (he has been controversial with some of his policies in dealing with this issue)

 

[Del125763]

ive never flown from China to UK or vice versa. Interested to know approximately how many direct flights were there between the countries , roughly, in a day?

I did fly from Hong Kong to UK last year.

 

[Del125763]

Id price the odds of An Australian recession this year as likely. Think we have had a fairly good run but this is beyond our control. Education, tourism, retail all going to feel the brunt of it.

Yes $1.30 v $4.20 No

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Beteasy

Will opening ceremony take place on july 24.
Yes 3.15
No 1.30

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Id price the odds of An Australian recession this year as likely. Think we have had a fairly good run but this is beyond our control. Education, tourism, retail all going to feel the brunt of it.

Yes $1.30 v $4.20 No

I'll have five gorillas on yes.

 

[Del125763]

I'll have five gorillas on yes.

Yep I can already see the downturn mate. Traffic in the CBD is at a standstill. If you can get through this year, just hope things change for the better for the following year.

 

[Del125763]

Mentioned today, QANTAS suspends all international flights until at least till the end of May. Will shed 2/3rds of its work staff.

5. Will QANTAS resume flights to Mainland China before 1st July 2020

reckon the odds for this to happen?...

Yes $10.00 v $1.11 No

 

[Del125763]

Event 2: Will Liverpool be declared the winners of the 2019/20 Premier League before another Premier League fixture is played (on or after 17th March 2020)
Yes $2.10 v $1.74 No

Bit of movement on the Smarkets betting exchange overnight, No into $1.22, yes out to $4.50. No last matched at $1.11

 

[Del125763]

Odds from Smarkets Betting Exchange (19/3/20):

USA To lift Schengen Travel Ban
By 30th April 2020 $2.58
By 31st May 2020 $2.68
By 30th June 2020 $3.70
1st June 2020 or later $6




The President of the USA made this proclamation creating restrictions on travel to the Schegen areas: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presiden...ose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/ The date from which this proclamation is rescinded will be the material date for this market. If the proclamation is not rescinded in the times specified in the market, then the final contract will be settled as a winner. If another proclamation is made, rescinding this proclamation but creating new conditions for travel to the Schengen area, the date of rescinding of the first proclamation will be the material date for this market. Times / dates in this market will be UK time.

 

[Del125763]

bit of value on 1st June 2020 me thinks at $6

 

[Del125763]

Here is a market I think the bookies should have for the locals

"When will Scott Morrison lift the restrictions on arrivals from overseas?" Since he just implemented a travel ban today.

My Odds
By 30th April $7.65
By 31st May $5.00
By 30th June $4.00
1st July or later $2.38

any players in the house?

 

[Del125763]

Smarkets Betting Exchange
Recession of Countries in 2020


USA Yes $1.14 v $5.60 No
UK Yes $1.08 v $5.50 No
France Yes $1.11 v $5.90 No
Germany Yes $1.13 v $5.60 No
Italy Yes $1.04 v $6.80 No


reckon i priced Australia about right yesterday, but based on those countries id probably push Australia to around $1.25 for a recession in 2020.

 

[Del125763]

Bit of movement on the Smarkets betting exchange overnight, No into $1.22, yes out to $4.50. No last matched at $1.11

Premier League announcement today:

"The FA, Premier League, EFL and women’s professional game, together with the PFA and LMA are committed to finding ways of resuming the 2019/20 football season as soon as it is safe and possible to do so "

 

[iluvparis]

Here is a market I think the bookies should have for the locals

"When will Scott Morrison lift the restrictions on arrivals from overseas?" Since he just implemented a travel ban today.

My Odds
By 30th April $7.65
By 31st May $5.00
By 30th June $4.00
1st July or later $2.38

any players in the house?

Black figures 1 July or later seems a great bet there

 

[Del125763]

Odds from Smarkets Betting Exchange (19/3/20):

USA To lift Schengen Travel Ban
By 30th April 2020 $2.58
By 31st May 2020 $2.68
By 30th June 2020 $3.70
1st June 2020 or later $6

By 31st May 2020 shortened from $2.68 into $2.04 on Smarkets. China cases has slowed down in the past few days, which will be a big determining factor for the cases to cool down.

 

[54Dogs]

By 31st May 2020 shortened from $2.68 into $2.04 on Smarkets. China cases has slowed down in the past few days, which will be a big determining factor for the cases to cool down.

China is completely different as they had the massive spike early. When you flatten the curve it takes longer with a lower peak

 

[Del125763]

Anyway if bookmakers or exchanges are reading this thread, here are some Coronavirus betting markets I'd like to see from an Australian perspective.

1. Will the AFL season have the fully completed 17 home and away season?

This is as good as done and dusted.

 

[Del125763]

Event 7: UK Horse racing to resume before 1st May 2020?
no liquidity in market yet

UK Horse Racing to resume before 1st May 2020?

Yes $8 v $1.10 No


thats the price on Smarkets Betting exchange on 22/3/20

 

[Del125763]

worth a tenner on that at $8

Rules and regulations for the UK racing bet:

"This market will be settled for Yes should at least one scheduled UK race be completed before 23:59 GMT on 1st May 2020. "

 

[54Dogs]

worth a tenner on that at $8

Rules and regulations for the UK racing bet:

"This market will be settled for Yes should at least one scheduled UK race be completed before 23:59 GMT on 1st May 2020. "

Mate do some quick research. Google CV-19 UK. They are absolutely locked down for the next 12 weeks. $8 is the biggest unders in 100 yrs. Save your cash or take the $1-10. 1st May is 5 weeks away. More likely they are under martial law on this date


Dr Paul Johnstone, from Public Health England, said: "The NHS are contacting the people who are most vulnerable to developing a very serious illness as a result of Covid-19 with specific advice to stay at home for at least 12 weeks.

"If you receive a letter it is vitally important that you act on it for your own protection, don't attend any gatherings of friends or families and don't go out for shopping, leisure or travel."

 

[Del125763]

Mate do some quick research. Google CV-19 UK. They are absolutely locked down for the next 12 weeks. $8 is the biggest unders in 100 yrs. Save your cash or take the $1-10. 1st May is 5 weeks away. More likely they are under martial law on this date


Dr Paul Johnstone, from Public Health England, said: "The NHS are contacting the people who are most vulnerable to developing a very serious illness as a result of Covid-19 with specific advice to stay at home for at least 12 weeks.

"If you receive a letter it is vitally important that you act on it for your own protection, don't attend any gatherings of friends or families and don't go out for shopping, leisure or travel."

Fair play to your research. I never heard of Dr Paul Johnstone before until you mentioned him.