News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III - L6ckdown

[B4Bear]

The evidence suggests that the lockdown actually made no contribution to containing this outbreak given every single case linked to the cluster was either a hotel quarantine employee or a household or known close contact. It was entirely contained within the contact tracing bubble. There was obviously something that happened that meant they had no confidence that was actually the case.

The leaders should note shopping around for advice to support a predetermined decision, but by the same token, there is nothing wrong with having a variety of views at the table and weighing them up before making a decision. The politicians need to own the decision-making process which is actually something Gladys has been clear on.

Gladys also doesn't have 800+ deaths laid at her door.

Victoria is suffering collective PTSD from the deaths and last year's lockdown.

Imagine if they didn't lockdown, and it got into the community at large like last year. That was a risk the government was not will to take.

They figured (I think) that a 5 day lockdown will be borne by the public, the virus in the community like last year, not so much if at all.

 

[7577969923]

Isn't it the CHO under the law who has to make the direction to limit movement though?

I would hope the CHO also has a range of advisors.

I think I have read something about that but the reality is the politicians own it. Your point reminds me that there was criticism in the second wave that the Secretary of the Health Department had overridden protocol and installed two bureaucrats as joint head of the Covid response when the protocol clearly said it should be the CMO.

 

[The Warlord]

The evidence suggests that the lockdown actually made no contribution to containing this outbreak given every single case linked to the cluster was either a hotel quarantine employee or a household or known close contact. It was entirely contained within the contact tracing bubble. There was obviously something that happened that meant they had no confidence that was actually the case.

The fact that it was a new strain they hadn't had to deal with?

It was five days, it is over.

The risk/reward is fine by me - if they'd taken the risk and stuffed it up, the costs in lives and $$$ would have been enormous.

Is why Queensland and WA did the same when they had leaks recently.

 

[B4Bear]

We have definitely learnt that there will always be someone talking absolute bullshit, whether they are trying to cross a border or giving a press conference.

10 days is better than no quarantine but we have seen there are cases that don't become apparent until day 11. Their approach seems to indicate they are trying to minimise the amount of virus coming in, not stop it completely.

They have so much virus the only way for them to get on top of it is to vaccinate everyone and hope it burns itself out. Their best hope is that a new mutation occurs that is easily passed, but way less virulent.

We are in a totally different game than most of the world.

 

[7577969923]

Luck - No. They were exceptionally lucky their recent outbreak happened in summer and was in a geographically limited and easily cut off place.

Tracing - Yes. Agreed.

If you have to have a cluster, having it on a peninsula is probably the best possible outcome. They did bring it under control when it had spread to Western Sydney which was probably their worst-case outcome.

 

[Muscles Thommo]

Isn't it the CHO under the law who has to make the direction to limit movement though?

I would hope the CHO also has a range of advisors.

Edit: yep, it's the CHO under s199 of the Public Health and Wellbeing Act 2008.

CHO is a smug git, so probably yes, but does he listen to them?

 

[7577969923]

They have so much virus the only way for them to get on top of it is to vaccinate everyone and hope it burns itself out. Their best hope is that a new mutation occurs that is easily passed, but way less virulent.

We are in a totally different game than most of the world.

Agree. You might think that implementing global best practice quarantine - 14 days regardless of origin - might actually help them get things under control quicker and take the pressure off.

 

[B4Bear]

If you have to have a cluster, having it on a peninsula is probably the best possible outcome. They did bring it under control when it had spread to Western Sydney which was probably their worst-case outcome.

I was in Sydney the friday before Xmas and trying to get home.

There was a large slice of luck in NSW. Very few were wearing mask at all, and maybe 1 in 4 were at the airport.

Was pretty horrifying from where I was seated. Staying away from unmasked close proximity campaigners became my #1 activity.

 

[Mordecai]

Not initially it wasn't.

It is SPIN as to why the vaccines have been so late.

If you think Andrews has been spinning and bullshitting - which he certainly has - then Scotty on the vaccines is in a different league.

Australia first in line for COVID-19 vaccine

The Australian government has reached an agreement with UK-based drug company AstraZeneca, allowing every Australian first access to a COVID-19 vaccine currently being worked on at the University of Oxford, should all clinical trials go to plan. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has praised the...

www.2gb.com

I just think Morrison is better at playing the game.

 

[7577969923]

Gladys also doesn't have 800+ deaths laid at her door.

Victoria is suffering collective PTSD from the deaths and last year's lockdown.

Imagine if they didn't lockdown, and it got into the community at large like last year. That was a risk the government was not will to take.

They figured (I think) that a 5 day lockdown will be borne by the public, the virus in the community like last year, not so much if at all.

No doubt the political and emotional scar tissue from that played a role in the decision-making framework. There will be more scar tissue built up from this experience. I can see him coming under pressure to provide a more clear framework of the circumstances that will lead to another lockdown. That could include proof that an outbreak has breached the contact tracing bubble.

 

[shintemaster]

Gladys also doesn't have 800+ deaths laid at her door.

Victoria is suffering collective PTSD from the deaths and last year's lockdown.

Imagine if they didn't lockdown, and it got into the community at large like last year. That was a risk the government was not will to take.

They figured (I think) that a 5 day lockdown will be borne by the public, the virus in the community like last year, not so much if at all.

Yep, agree. Personally given how long in lockdown last year I think keeping this to a short, sharp 5 day event was crucial to ongoing compliance. It's worth noting that IMHO this is the sharpest lockdown we've had to date. Although we had months at a time last year the majority of construction work and trade work was ongoing the whole time - which was not the case this time.

Odds are we'll need more lockdowns before the year is done, I can't speak for everyone else but I think a 2-3 business day shutdown - while inconvenient - will be more palatable on a semi regular basis than waiting until large scale ongoing lockdowns are necessary. In the past I've felt they've been too hesitant to commence lockdowns and this has ultimately dragged out the durations. I don't think that length of lockdown we experienced last year is sustainable regularly. A week every few months - at the moment I'll take that.

I just think Morrison is better at playing the game.

Morrison has some significant media support from everyone's least liked ex Australian and it makes a massive difference. I don't think he's better at anything except lying with straight face. No politician - including Andrews - is immune to that accusation. Morrison like Andrews has a massive team of social media and PR people running interference constantly to create the "image" they want to project. The major difference is that Dan isn't getting a free ride in the mainstream media - at least when it comes to COVID.

 

[7577969923]

I was in Sydney the friday before Xmas and trying to get home.

There was a large slice of luck in NSW. Very few were wearing mask at all, and maybe 1 in 4 were at the airport.

Was pretty horrifying from where I was seated. Staying away from unmasked close proximity campaigners became my #1 activity.

Whilst I agree that masks have a clear role to play I think we have been conditioned in Victoria to their overuse. When there is a significant outbreak in the community I think they play a clear role. When we have been covid free for 20 days plus in our state there isn't really a strong case that we need to wear them in supermarkets.

Remember that every state in Australia got on top of the first wave with minimal mask usage.

 

[The Warlord]

I just think Morrison is better at playing the game.

Morrison gets away with his bullshit because the vast majority of media are friendly to the point of obsequious.

That same media is openly hostile to Andrews.

 

[7577969923]

I just think Morrison is better at playing the game.

Really? I don't like Andrews much but he is the best purely political operator we have seen in politics, state, or Federal for a long time. Underestimate his mastery of political skills and the dark arts of media manipulation and spin at your peril.

 

[The Warlord]

If you have to have a cluster, having it on a peninsula is probably the best possible outcome. They did bring it under control when it had spread to Western Sydney which was probably their worst-case outcome.

Exactly. So they did get massively lucky there. And it happened in summer, which no doubt helped reduce the spread when it got out to the west.

Victoria's similar event happened in the guts of winter, which massively exacerbated the spread.

 

[B4Bear]

Whilst I agree that masks have a clear role to play I think we have been conditioned in Victoria to their overuse. When there is a significant outbreak in the community I think they play a clear role. When we have been covid free for 20 days plus in our state there isn't really a strong case that we need to wear them in supermarkets.

Remember that every state in Australia got on top of the first wave with minimal mask usage.

Yeah, well I am happy with wearing a mask. It also serves as a visible reminder to the public that this thing is still around, and that if they are wearing one, then they are caring for themselves and the community.

Does it make a huge difference to the average punter? Probably not. But I reckon there is a psychological element to it that works very well.

 

[7577969923]

Morrison gets away with his bullshit because the vast majority of media are friendly to the point of obsequious.

That same media is openly hostile to Andrews.

There is friendly and hostile media on both sides. Andrews actually had a pretty charmed run in the media during the second wave and even throughout the shammish inquiry.

 

[shintemaster]

Whilst I agree that masks have a clear role to play I think we have been conditioned in Victoria to their overuse. When there is a significant outbreak in the community I think they play a clear role. When we have been covid free for 20 days plus in our state there isn't really a strong case that we need to wear them in supermarkets.

Remember that every state in Australia got on top of the first wave with minimal mask usage.

I agree but I'm also not sure it's a hill I'm willing to die on. End of the day wearing a mask in a supermarket is a pretty minor inconvenience - even if it only leads to a minor reduction in cases when it inevitably gets free again.

Wearing them outside or where we can easily distance / track I'm more willing to push harder.

 

[The Warlord]

Really? I don't like Andrews much but he is the best purely political operator we have seen in politics, state, or Federal for a long time. Underestimate his mastery of political skills and the dark arts of media manipulation and spin at your peril.

100 per cent.

Andrews is like the North team of the 90s - he's winning multiple flags with everything against him mediawise. Even The Age is now a centre right publication.

Morrison is like Essendon. All the advantages in the world structurally, but still shithouse and stuffs up, needs even crapper opponents to get any wins.

 

[7577969923]

Exactly. So they did get massively lucky there. And it happened in summer, which no doubt helped reduce the spread when it got out to the west.

Victoria's similar event happened in the guts of winter, which massively exacerbated the spread.

NSW also had a bunch of outbreaks through their winter but controlled them through contact tracing. It was pushed to the limit through that period.

 

[The Warlord]

There is friendly and hostile media on both sides. Andrews actually had a pretty charmed run in the media during the second wave and even throughout the shammish inquiry.

You are kidding right?

 

[Swallow_Wood]

He has openly praised and celebrated the fact that this government has made mistakes that have directly led to many hundreds of deaths in this state - nothing more nothing less. His 'excuse' is we have had less deaths than overseas countries.

If you want to comment then read the posts - other stfu.

I have read his posts and nowhere do I see him celebrating death.

You need to rehinge yourself buddy.

 

[7577969923]

I agree but I'm also not sure it's a hill I'm willing to die on. End of the day wearing a mask in a supermarket is a pretty minor inconvenience - even if it only leads to a minor reduction in cases when it inevitably gets free again.

Wearing them outside or where we can easily distance / track I'm more willing to push harder.

Not a hill I'm willing to die either. Funnily enough, even though I don't think we really need them during those times, I still get pissed off when people don't wear them properly and have their nose hanging out or wear the mask below the line of their mouth.

 

[The Warlord]

NSW also had a bunch of outbreaks through their winter but controlled them through contact tracing. It was pushed to the limit through that period.

Yep, and their summer outbreak that required a lockdown in parts of Sydney spread down here and we didn't need anything major, our contact tracing kept it sweet

Again, my point the whole time.

Comparing incidents and outbreaks as if they are like for like is a mug's game.

 

[The Warlord]

I have read his posts and nowhere do I see him celebrating death.

You need to rehinge yourself buddy.

I wouldn't both with someone who can't even spell the name of one of our greatest ever players correctly.