Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

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briztoon said:
I wouldn’t look at one day in Italy, and say they’re over the hump.

China introduced very strict isolation and quarantine measures to total lockdown of Hubei in a period of 3 days, that lasted for 8 weeks.

They introduced those measures when they had reported 530 cases.

You can’t compare either country to us, as we’re not following either countries timetable and measures.

Our reported transmission rates aren’t accurately reported because we’re not testing for them. This has been documented and discussed so often on the abc.

We’re now seeing community transmission where they can’t trace the contact. This will increase now they’re expanding the testing.

As yet, we haven’t seen much community transmission in to the vulnerable sections of our society. This will increase as the virus spreads.

Our efforts are still focused on flattening the curve, not stopping the virus. We’ve missed our chance at stopping the virus.

As long as we focus on flattening the curve, it will be a long, drawn out process.

As long as the virus exists outside or national borders, we’ll have to keep our borders tightly controlled. This will greatly impact our tourism industry and our tertiary education sector and our economy until there is a large supply of a vaccine.

We may slow the virus down to negligible numbers within the 6 month time frame the government has discussed.

It will take our society much longer to recover.

We might see football start back up by August or September, but it’ll be an abridged version, and there will a a flow in effect to season 2021.

And I dare say our league and clubs might look very different after this.
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Virus's generally have an arc and a life cycle, that's widely noted. They come in waves, then retreat whilst remaining present.

Italy had a further decrease in transmission and deaths yesterday (2 days in a row), 2 weeks after lock down, that will most likely continue to trend downward, as in China. This is why it's a curve.

I am not suggesting we will beat the Virus and our efforts to flatten the curve are and will continue to have an effect - they are vitally important.

Every thing about control measures and it taking time and needing to be cautious is absolutley true - there just isn't and supported proof that it's arc will peak out at some of the more dramatic numbers being thrown around using maths formulas to forecast.

Each virus has a life cycle or extreme transmission (which is coming for us and will be bad), its just starting to look like COVID-19 might not have as much stamina as first thought.
 
Lions Flag 2020 said:
The key determinant on how bad this will get is totally correlated to how quick we can get a cure/vaccine to the masses. If it’s 18 months we are in a world of pain.
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I think even experts arnt thinking this lasts in it's current form, aimlessly attacking millions at a time for months on end. I think there is generally a wave then we go into a containment phase. I really don't think we will all be living in lock down fearing COVID-19 like it is now, by spring this year. Once the health system braces for the first wave I think we will go into a 'watch and act' phase.

China are pretty much there now. It's going to be bad, but nothing we are seeing suggests it'll be long term like that.
 

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Anyone got any commentary about QLD’s stimulus package?

All I keep wondering is how we’re going to pay for everything the governments are rolling out.
 
lioninthesand said:
I am a little more hopeful than I was a week ago for Australia.

Yes it's going to come and yes, it'll be bad. And... yes, we need to all take it seriously.

However - our transmission rate is low, mortality rate is low and we only have 10 cases in ICU. Experts now think we can keep mortality rate below 1%.

Our general uptake sits between the good countries and the bad with social distancing measures yet to take effect on the curve.

I saw the head of ICU at Melbourne hospital on ABC say he was confident that they could manage the influx looking at numbers and projections.

Italy having a decrease in their deaths overnight should indicate they had hit the top of their arc and should now decline. That along with China says to me it won't be months, it Will be weeks.

We are up againts the biggest challenge since WW2 but I think we are positioned to navigate it ok, so long as we socially isolate properly.
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We don't know our transmission rate, who they test and don't test has been found out to be too restrictive and cases have been missed.

We also don't know the mortality rate, it is far too early to know those numbers.

If 50% of the population gets the virus over the next 12 months and the mortality percentage is for example .25 (China excluding Wuhan and Hubei province was .9%) then we are looking at close to 30,000 deaths in Australia.

If any head of an ICU comes out and say they won't cope...the panic will go up even more. All it will take is an outbreak in an aged care facility and there will be too many ICU admissions or a spike in deaths and the panic begins again.
 
briztoon said:
All I keep wondering is how we’re going to pay for everything the governments are rolling out.
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Debt.

It's literally the least of any issues at the moment.
 
Gibbo_88 said:
We don't know our transmission rate, who they test and don't test has been found out to be too restrictive and cases have been missed.

We also don't know the mortality rate, it is far too early to know those numbers.

If 50% of the population gets the virus over the next 12 months and the mortality percentage is for example .25 (China excluding Wuhan and Hubei province was .9%) then we are looking at close to 30,000 deaths in Australia.

If any head of an ICU comes out and say they won't cope...the panic will go up even more. All it will take is an outbreak in an aged care facility and there will be too many ICU admissions or a spike in deaths and the panic begins again.
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Of coarse we don't know every case, but we do know those severely effected or having died (as they can't be missed) and those rates are tracking ok from what we can tell. Experts are 'pleased at this stage' - we arn't Italy but we also arnt Singapore - we are somewhere in the middle.

Why would we be casually assuming (beyond maths) Australia will have 300k deaths when China (which is far more densely populated) has peaked out at 3250 deaths (more likely 30k)? - Yes they are far more strict with their lock-down measures, but we are more spread out, have had more time to respond etc.. why would Australia do so much worse than them and other countries ahead if us to this point?

It's going to be bad (we all agree on that) but the evolution of the virus is being road mapped infront of us and to this point, there is zero evidence to suggest 300k Australian's will die, infact it's the opposite.

Also - messaging out of hospitals and the government has been extreme if anything to get the message out. If he believed he was going to be overwhelmed and short of beds (based on the arc and numbers so far) he would have said it for sure IMO.
 
lioninthesand said:
Of coarse we don't know every case, but we do know those severely effected or having died (as they can't be missed) and those rates are tracking ok from what we can tell. Experts are 'pleased at this stage' - we arn't Italy but we also arnt Singapore - we are somewhere in the middle.

Why would we be casually assuming (beyond maths) Australia will have 300k deaths when China (which is far more densely populated) has peaked out at 3250 deaths (more likely 30k)? - Yes they are far more strict with their lock-down measures, but we are more spread out, have had more time to respond etc.. why would Australia do so much worse than them and other countries ahead if us to this point?

It's going to be bad (we all agree on that) but the evolution of the virus is being road mapped infront of us and to this point, there is zero evidence to suggest 300k Australian's will die, infact it's the opposite.

Also - messaging out of hospitals and the government has been extreme if anything to get the message out. If he believed he was going to be overwhelmed and short of beds (based on the arc and numbers so far) he would have said it for sure IMO.
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He said 30k. Not 300k.
 
Football Pope said:
...I'm a little bit different, and this will explain why I haven't been on as often as in the past..my bride for over 30 years was diagnosed with terminal cancer back in November the treatment she has been given is to extend the life expectancy...She is in the 4% fatality rate should she get an infection, We've already been told..that as of next week, there won't be the level of care available for her... those words kept echoing in my head...Words are important. I have some serious concerns about the messaging we are receiving… I think is so important and appropriate to share. In this time, we should be "PHYSICALLY distancing but SOCIALLY connecting!!!" The cancer hospital where we have been receiving treatment is earmarked to be a Covid -19 ICU... Her best protection is isolation and to avoid coming into contact with the virus entirely... I've already been in a semi strict staycation (isolation) for 3 weeks I immediately shower on return after any outing (shops and hospital visits)...I'm over paranoid on anything that comes into the house and wipe down all processed packaging mail and parcels... I'm in the process of putting her crew together for her should I end up with it .. https://gathermycrew.org.au/... ( I highly recommend this charity for anyone that is doing it tough and is proud and doesn't want to or know how to ask for help.)...Cheers
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I am so sorry to your sad news.
No words ,just take care and much love xo
 
3KZ is Football said:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4862725/user-clip-pence-contradicts-trump-ventilators
Trump is just so stupid, but Pence makes him look even more stupid here. Trump might not know what a ventilator is, but he’s probably seen medical machinery on ER or Grey’s Anatomy and it sure looks complicated. 🤪
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Yes these ventilators contraptions are so highly complex and computerised it took these Welsh guys three days to design, make and test their own. :think:


www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: The new inventions inspired by a pandemic

A virus-killing snood and hands-free door pull are among Welsh innovations to tackle coronavirus.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 

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Two articles from University of Melbourne
One is" Maths & Ethics of Minimizing COVID-19 deaths"
The other is "Modeling The Spread Of COVID -19 in Australia" you can also choose another country
They predict a end result in Australia between 5,000 and up to as high as 134,000 (unlikely) depending what path the Government chooses.

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-maths-and-ethics-of-minimising-covid-19-deaths

pursuit.unimelb.edu.au

Modelling the spread of COVID-19

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 including undetected cases is difficult but important; a University of Melbourne scientist has an app to track the outlook.
pursuit.unimelb.edu.au pursuit.unimelb.edu.au
 
lioninthesand said:
Of coarse we don't know every case, but we do know those severely effected or having died (as they can't be missed) and those rates are tracking ok from what we can tell. Experts are 'pleased at this stage' - we arn't Italy but we also arnt Singapore - we are somewhere in the middle.

Why would we be casually assuming (beyond maths) Australia will have 300k deaths when China (which is far more densely populated) has peaked out at 3250 deaths (more likely 30k)? - Yes they are far more strict with their lock-down measures, but we are more spread out, have had more time to respond etc.. why would Australia do so much worse than them and other countries ahead if us to this point?

It's going to be bad (we all agree on that) but the evolution of the virus is being road mapped infront of us and to this point, there is zero evidence to suggest 300k Australian's will die, infact it's the opposite.

Also - messaging out of hospitals and the government has been extreme if anything to get the message out. If he believed he was going to be overwhelmed and short of beds (based on the arc and numbers so far) he would have said it for sure IMO.
Click to expand...

I didn't say 300k deaths.

Perhaps in a month or two time they will have data to support a low infection and mortality rate but there's no way of knowing with the testing they have been doing how fast it is actually spreading at this point in time. This will be with us for the winter which normally puts a lot of pressure on the health care system without this virus.
 
World Health Organisation director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus outlined the numbers:

  • It took 67 days to go from one reported case to 100,000 cases
  • Then it took only 11 days to reach 200,000 cases
  • Then it took just four days to reach 300,000 cases

www.abc.net.au

Coronavirus update: Trump lashes out as US death toll surges

Scott Morrison has announced further restrictions on businesses and gatherings, Australia's tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases passes 2,000, and Donald Trump hits out at Democrats on Twitter.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
Football Pope said:
...I'm a little bit different, and this will explain why I haven't been on as often as in the past..my bride for over 30 years was diagnosed with terminal cancer back in November the treatment she has been given is to extend the life expectancy...She is in the 4% fatality rate should she get an infection, We've already been told..that as of next week, there won't be the level of care available for her... those words kept echoing in my head...Words are important. I have some serious concerns about the messaging we are receiving… I think is so important and appropriate to share. In this time, we should be "PHYSICALLY distancing but SOCIALLY connecting!!!" The cancer hospital where we have been receiving treatment is earmarked to be a Covid -19 ICU... Her best protection is isolation and to avoid coming into contact with the virus entirely... I've already been in a semi strict staycation (isolation) for 3 weeks I immediately shower on return after any outing (shops and hospital visits)...I'm over paranoid on anything that comes into the house and wipe down all processed packaging mail and parcels... I'm in the process of putting her crew together for her should I end up with it .. https://gathermycrew.org.au/... ( I highly recommend this charity for anyone that is doing it tough and is proud and doesn't want to or know how to ask for help.)...Cheers
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So sorry to hear Mate, stories like that remind you that health of your family is all that matters. Thanks for sharing and good-luck.
 
Gibbo_88 said:
I didn't say 300k deaths.

Perhaps in a month or two time they will have data to support a low infection and mortality rate but there's no way of knowing with the testing they have been doing how fast it is actually spreading at this point in time. This will be with us for the winter which normally puts a lot of pressure on the health care system without this virus.
Click to expand...

Sorry read it wrong. 30k is still scary but alot more possible. I am bracing for 5k-10k.
 
We need a bigfooty emergency alert button that can help us get moral support when spending weeks locked inside with our nearest and dearest becomes a bit too much. Love them dearly, but this lock-down could exceed the time most that we've ever spent alone with each other.

Good luck everyone and remember - we do love them.
 
Australia isn't Italy but if you look at the rate of confirmed cases we're tracking similarly . It's really too early to tell what the outcome will be here and the next 3-4 weeks are critical. My overall impression is that a majority of Australians aren't taking the health threats anywhere near seriously enough but that's only based on my own observations and discussions.

Everyone should be extremely cautious and isolate as far as possible at least for the foreseeable future both for their own sakes and that of anyone they come in to contact with .
 
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