Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

[dlanod]

Normal flu 9-13% death rate (from 3-5 million)

WTF. Try 0.5 to 1% of hospitalisations (Australia last year), or estimated at 0.1% of total cases (America historical figures).

 

[Viceregal]

WTF. Try 0.5 to 1% of hospitalisations (Australia last year), or estimated at 0.1% of total cases (America historical figures).

I may have crunched the numbers incorrectly (stats not my strong suit) ... was working off the articles line of "Seasonal flu alone is estimated to result in three to five million cases of severe illness, and 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths annually. " so did 290k of 3m (9.6)** and 650k of 5m (13) although I suppose the best case would be 290k of 5m (5.8) and worst as 650k of 3m (21.5)

** 290000/3000000*100

 

[briztoon]

So effectively

Normal flu 9-13% death rate (from 3-5 million)

SARS 9.55% death rate (from 8k)

MERS 34.35% death rate (from 2.5k)

This guy 5.75% (from 1.5 million) so far and only going to go down from here
- initially only the reporting of acute cases ie needing hospitalisation
- deaths being over-attributed to it
- more people who have or have had it that didn't end up needing medical treatment that were found via testing are not going to die from it so increasing the number of infections without increasing the number of deaths = lowering of the death rate
- increased awareness of treatment methods that are effective in counteracting the progress of the virus

Admittedly this one involves a higher number of people in the ones presented in the graphic if nothing like the number of normal flu recipients (in the article not the picture interestingly enough)

btw how do you calculate a R0 when you don't know how many people have something ... ?

(not that my trust level in reporting from WHO or Al Jazeera is all that high ... no idea what Hopkins has been like in terms of accuracy recently)

Mortality rate from the Flu is ~0.1%.

Where did you get 9% to 13% from?

For example, Australia had ~298,000 confirmed cases of the flu in 2019, with 812 deaths.

Pretty easy to find similar reporting from the USA from 2018/2019. ~35 million cases of the flu, and ~34,500 deaths.

Many countries have admitted to under reporting both coronavirus cases and deaths, simply because they lack enough tests, to test people who don’t present to hospital or who have died at home.

I posted a report here a couple of days ago, from New York, where they estimate 180 -195 people a day are dying at home from coronavirus, and they don’t have the tests to check.

Similarly, China, Spain, France have all said they’re not checking suspected cases who have died at home.

Indonesia is hardly doing any testing or counting. But Jakarta reported an extra 4000 deaths last month, compared to March last year. And that’s with most seasonal or satellite workers leaving Jakarta because of coronavirus.

And then there is barely any reliable reporting coming out of the entire continent of Africa.

To suggest cases are only going to go down from here, when there’s very little reliable reporting coming from Africa, is highly debatable.


And all this with most of Europe, North America, Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East, and large parts of South and Central America, and Africa all practicing some form of lockdown or social distancing.

That’s now a large reason why we’re seeing cases slowing down. Not because the virus has run its natural course, but because the world is trying to stop it from doing so.

To even try and compare the Flu to coronavirus is unrealistic because of the steps humanity is taking to slow and stop coronavirus.

 

[briztoon]

I may have crunched the numbers incorrectly (stats not my strong suit) ... was working off the articles line of "Seasonal flu alone is estimated to result in three to five million cases of severe illness, and 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths annually. " so did 290k of 3m (9.6)** and 650k of 5m (13) although I suppose the best case would be 290k of 5m (5.8) and worst as 650k of 3m (21.5)

** 290000/3000000*100

The USA alone estimated they had 35 million cases of the flu the previous winter.

Multiply that figure by 4 for an estimate of China.

 

[Saucery]

So effectively

Normal flu 9-13% death rate (from 3-5 million)

SARS 9.55% death rate (from 8k)

MERS 34.35% death rate (from 2.5k)

This guy 5.75% (from 1.5 million) so far and only going to go down from here
- initially only the reporting of acute cases ie needing hospitalisation
- deaths being over-attributed to it
- more people who have or have had it that didn't end up needing medical treatment that were found via testing are not going to die from it so increasing the number of infections without increasing the number of deaths = lowering of the death rate
- increased awareness of treatment methods that are effective in counteracting the progress of the virus

Admittedly this one involves a higher number of people in the ones presented in the graphic if nothing like the number of normal flu recipients (in the article not the picture interestingly enough)

btw how do you calculate a R0 when you don't know how many people have something ... ?

(not that my trust level in reporting from WHO or Al Jazeera is all that high ... no idea what Hopkins has been like in terms of accuracy recently)

Not so sure about this as many people who are found dead in their homes have not been included in the figures, also many countries are not including deaths in aged care.

Edit- What Bris said ^^

 

[Alas Smith]

Well I already know of a small country school where all three staff for various reasons will not be on-site.

I cannot argue with this, but do note that you use an example that is nowhere near the state average of teachers per school.

 

[Roylion]

I cannot argue with this, but do note that you use an example that is nowhere near the state average of teachers per school.

You did claim "Likely hood, zilch." I pointed out that "zilch" was not the case. Many schools will have a skeleton staff which in itself has a number of issues surrounding it.

 

[Viceregal]

Mortality rate from the Flu is ~0.1%.

Where did you get 9% to 13% from?

For example, Australia had ~298,000 confirmed cases of the flu in 2019, with 812 deaths.

Pretty easy to find similar reporting from the USA from 2018/2019. ~35 million cases of the flu, and ~34,500 deaths.

Many countries have admitted to under reporting both coronavirus cases and deaths, simply because they lack enough tests, to test people who don’t present to hospital or who have died at home.

I posted a report here a couple of days ago, from New York, where they estimate 180 -195 people a day are dying at home from coronavirus, and they don’t have the tests to check.

Similarly, China, Spain, France have all said they’re not checking suspected cases who have died at home.

Indonesia is hardly doing any testing or counting. But Jakarta reported an extra 4000 deaths last month, compared to March last year. And that’s with most seasonal or satellite workers leaving Jakarta because of coronavirus.

And then there is barely any reliable reporting coming out of the entire continent of Africa.

To suggest cases are only going to go down from here, when there’s very little reliable reporting coming from Africa, is highly debatable.


And all this with most of Europe, North America, Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East, and large parts of South and Central America, and Africa all practicing some form of lockdown or social distancing.

That’s now a large reason why we’re seeing cases slowing down. Not because the virus has run its natural course, but because the world is trying to stop it from doing so.

To even try and compare the Flu to coronavirus is unrealistic because of the steps humanity is taking to slow and stop coronavirus.

The USA alone estimated they had 35 million cases of the flu the previous winter.

Multiply that figure by 4 for an estimate of China.

Wasn't saying that *cases* were going down from here I was saying that the *death rate* would be going down.

In terms of the flu numbers I mentioned I got them from the article - guessing that even the normal flu data is all over the place as well then since the article reads somewhere between 5.8 and 21.5, the numbers you quoted from Australia being 0.27, the US ones you quoted 0.098 and you saying approx 0.1%

Or shall I just assume that the article is a waste of space (since it is data based and the data in it is ... dodgy)

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Super hopeful tone from the Deputy CMO today.

Sounds like eradication could be on the cards again. We'll all know more in a few weeks, but if we're able to pull that off and the disease dies off in Australia (which would seem possible by late May/early June on those forecasts), we can resume life as normal in every way but international flights. That would be an amazing result. Obviously plenty has to go right between now and then for that to happen though.

 

[briztoon]

Wasn't saying that *cases* were going down from here I was saying that the *death rate* would be going down.

In terms of the flu numbers I mentioned I got them from the article - guessing that even the normal flu data is all over the place as well then since the article reads somewhere between 5.8 and 21.5, the numbers you quoted from Australia being 0.27, the US ones you quoted 0.098 and you saying approx 0.1%

Or shall I just assume that the article is a waste of space (since it is data based and the data in it is ... dodgy)

Australians data, I got from here.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm/$File/flu-12-2019.pdf

And USA data can be found on the CDC website.

 

[briztoon]

Super hopeful tone from the Deputy CMO today.

Sounds like eradication could be on the cards again. We'll all know more in a few weeks, but if we're able to pull that off and the disease dies off in Australia (which would seem possible by late May/early June on those forecasts), we can resume life as normal in every way but international flights. That would be an amazing result. Obviously plenty has to go right between now and then for that to happen though.

Every Australian holidays in Australia for next 18 months. No overseas holidays. No international tourists.

 

[weevil]

Super hopeful tone from the Deputy CMO today.

Sounds like eradication could be on the cards again. We'll all know more in a few weeks, but if we're able to pull that off and the disease dies off in Australia (which would seem possible by late May/early June on those forecasts), we can resume life as normal in every way but international flights. That would be an amazing result. Obviously plenty has to go right between now and then for that to happen though.

All the scientists said go hard go early, but nooo, the politicians knew better...

Will be interesting to see what happens if/when some of the smaller states can roll for a few weeks with no new infections. You'd think we will end up with different restriction levels in different jurisdictions.

The entire rest of the season played outside of Victoria would be fun.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Every Australian holidays in Australia for next 18 months. No overseas holidays. No international tourists.

Yep. Would probably have the added bonus of being great for our economy too. Although I imagine if NZ was in a similar situation, both us and them would probably open borders to each other - for the sake of tourism and airlines etc. But we'd both be shut off to the rest of the world until a vaccine arrived.

It's an odd thought that we could be in packed stadiums again while other countries are still told to stay at home. Guess that's part of the nature of being an island.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Yep. Would probably have the added bonus of being great for our economy too. Although I imagine if NZ was in a similar situation, both us and them would probably open borders to each other - for the sake of tourism and airlines etc. But we'd both be shut off to the rest of the world until a vaccine arrived.

It's an odd thought that we could be in packed stadiums again while other countries are still told to stay at home. Guess that's part of the nature of being an island.

I'm pretty doubtful we will see packed stadiums especially over the next 3-4 months and even the rest of the year. If restricted crowds are allowed back watching some sports, people are going to be very cautious this year. There are plenty of cases around that they haven't been able to find who they came into contact with.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I'm pretty doubtful we will see packed stadiums especially over the next 3-4 months and even the rest of the year. If restricted crowds are allowed back watching some sports, people are going to be very cautious this year. There are plenty of cases around that they haven't been able to find who they came into contact with.

That's true, but there are also fewer than there were only a couple of days ago.

I've been pretty doubtful of crowds returning before round 1 next year myself (how could it happen without a vaccine if the virus is still around?) - but when the deputy chief medical officer is saying we are 'on the cusp' of ending the disease in Australia, it suggests that the potential is there for this to change and resolve itself perhaps much quicker than most reporting had suggested.

Who knows though. It's almost impossible to know where this thing will go. Next big step will be to see what decisions are made when the Australian modelling is collated and released in two weeks' time. That could change a lot of things.

 

[weevil]

That's true, but there are also fewer than there were only a couple of days ago.

I've been pretty doubtful of crowds returning before round 1 next year myself (how could it happen without a vaccine if the virus is still around?) - but when the deputy chief medical officer is saying we are 'on the cusp' of ending the disease in Australia, it suggests that the potential is there for this to change and resolve itself perhaps much quicker than most reporting had suggested.

Who knows though. It's almost impossible to know where this thing will go. Next big step will be to see what decisions are made when the Australian modelling is collated and released in two weeks' time. That could change a lot of things.

I'm kinda the opposite, I think that people will be bursting to get back into the world. Think some people will be reticent at first but if the infection numbers stay down I could imagine a lot of people would go back to a new version of normal within weeks.

 

[Saucery]

So effectively

Normal flu 9-13% death rate (from 3-5 million)

SARS 9.55% death rate (from 8k)

MERS 34.35% death rate (from 2.5k)

This guy 5.75% (from 1.5 million) so far and only going to go down from here
- initially only the reporting of acute cases ie needing hospitalisation
- deaths being over-attributed to it
- more people who have or have had it that didn't end up needing medical treatment that were found via testing are not going to die from it so increasing the number of infections without increasing the number of deaths = lowering of the death rate
- increased awareness of treatment methods that are effective in counteracting the progress of the virus

Admittedly this one involves a higher number of people in the ones presented in the graphic if nothing like the number of normal flu recipients (in the article not the picture interestingly enough)

btw how do you calculate a R0 when you don't know how many people have something ... ?

(not that my trust level in reporting from WHO or Al Jazeera is all that high ... no idea what Hopkins has been like in terms of accuracy recently)

Why less deadly can mean more deaths.

Coronavirus is less deadly than SARS — that's why it kills so many people

It's not the first virus to spread rapidly from country to country, nor is it the first to be declared a pandemic, but here's why the response to COVID-19 has been different.

www.abc.net.au

 

[dlanod]

I'm kinda the opposite, I think that people will be bursting to get back into the world. Think some people will be reticent at first but if the infection numbers stay down I could imagine a lot of people would go back to a new version of normal within weeks.

It's honestly giving me cabin fever.

I usually deal with being served a s**t sandwich by planning our next travel. Turns out when the s**t sandwich prevents said travel it takes any enjoyment out of that too.

 

[luthor]

I do agree with this in part.
But that is not what the doomsayers mean when they say we are tracking the same as Italy.

I heard an "expert" only 6 days ago on ABC National News radio, who was asked how we were tracking in comparison to other countries.

His answer was an unequivocal

"Well, we are NOT tracking very well.....something Italy.....something something Spain.....something .....not enough tests........outbteak in Australia is imminent.....something......we didn't act fast enough..............blah blah"

The interviewer let the "expert" get away with his doomsayer-ing without putting any further questions asking this boffin to justify is opinion.

The expert's view was so obviously flawed on any analysis of the facts, that I was amazed the nonsense he sprouted was even allowed to go to air.

 

[Saucery]

Sad news, my aunt Sally and uncle Allen passed suddenly of CV19 (in the UK). Both were in their mid 70’s but no underlying health issues I am aware of, they were both passionate ballroom dancers. Can remember being on their balconey on Tottenham Court Rd in 1981 when Spurs won the FA cup and paraded down the street on an open top double-decker bus. Lovely couple, will be missed.

 

[briztoon]

Sad news, my aunt Sally and uncle Allen passed suddenly of CV19 (in the UK). Both were in their mid 70’s but no underlying health issues I am aware of, they were both passionate ballroom dancers. Can remember being on their balconey on Tottenham Court Rd in 1981 when Spurs won the FA cup and paraded down the street on an open top double-decker bus. Lovely couple, will be missed.

I’m so sorry for your loss.

 

[weevil]

I heard an "expert" only 6 days ago on ABC National News radio, who was asked how we were tracking in comparison to other countries.

His answer was an unequivocal

"Well, we are NOT tracking very well.....something Italy.....something something Spain.....something .....not enough tests........outbteak in Australia is imminent.....something......we didn't act fast enough..............blah blah"

The interviewer let the "expert" get away with his doomsayer-ing without putting any further questions asking this boffin to justify is opinion.

The expert's view was so obviously flawed on any analysis of the facts, that I was amazed the nonsense he sprouted was even allowed to go to air.

That sounds very weird, who was it? Should send it to media watch.

Norman Swan would say that sort of thing a lot, but it was always in terms of ‘if we don’t do something’.

 

[luthor]

That sounds very weird, who was it? Should send it to media watch.

Norman Swan would say that sort of thing a lot, but it was always in terms of ‘if we don’t do something’.

I'm not sure.

I missed the introductory bit and then they didn't give his name after that.

 

[Gadzorks]

Every Australian holidays in Australia for next 18 months. No overseas holidays. No international tourists.

Wonder how much we spend going overseas and how much is spent by people coming in.

I’m happy to spend my holiday money, such as it is, supporting local businesses. Was planning a road trip to bushfire areas this Easter. Sad but true that I now have a much wider selection of places to go to.

 

[Saucery]

This is insane

"The restrictions were imposed in 31 provinces across the country and scaled up existing curbs, under which people under the age of 20 and over 65 have been told to stay at home."

Two-day lockdown imposed in much of Turkey, coronavirus death toll tops 1,000

Istanbul, Ankara and other major Turkish cities locked down for two days from midnight on Friday to combat the spread of the coronavirus under an Interior Ministry order, as the country's death toll from the pandemic rose above 1,000.

www.reuters.com

Its clearly been shown that most carriers of CV19 are between 20 and 60 due to their social proclivities, what a pointless exercise in seeming to do something when actually doing nothing.