Discussion Coronavirus

[CHBench]

Probably won't get completely wiped out and if just 1 person that has it goes to the footy they can infect 1,000 that then go back home all over Australia and it all starts again.

Yep. This new way of life won't be over until we find a vaccine, test, confirm, produce and distribute.


The current flattening doesn't mean restrictions will be lifted in a few weeks, it just means that when we do leave our house to go to the store that we're less likely to catch it*


Edit * - Actually this may not be true as I don't trust we're testing community transmission very well at all.

 

[Animal Cager]

Really? Do you know the depression went on so long?
40% unemployment

You obviously think the government are out of Harry Potter and everything will go back to normal with a wand and a spell. Yeah, the govt has budgeted for 6 million out of work, that's at least 40%. If you think that even half of those will get back to work in a hurry, that'd be like believing in Santa.

 

[Animal Cager]

We can’t because nothing has changed since we went into lockdown.

There's a lot more data available and at worst we're looking at a 1.7% acuity rate and 0.4% mortality rate. If we don't have the ICU beds to cope with that, then our Health system is third world.

 

[Joffaboy]

You obviously think the government are out of Harry Potter and everything will go back to normal with a wand and a spell. Yeah, the govt has budgeted for 6 million out of work, that's at least 40%. If you think that even half of those will get back to work in a hurry, that'd be like believing in Santa.

Ok

 

[Keg on legs]

How do people think it will look when restrictions are loosened initially?

I'm guessing parks etc re-opening with social distancing still essential. Maybe select groups of extended family and / or friends being allowed to congregate in open areas

Run that for a month, constantly tracking stats.

I base this on no insight or knowledge

 

[plugger66]

There's a lot more data available and at worst we're looking at a 1.7% acuity rate and 0.4% mortality rate. If we don't have the ICU beds to cope with that, then our Health system is third world.

Maybe we don’t want 2000 to die

 

[plugger66]

How do people think it will look when restrictions are loosened initially?

I'm guessing parks etc re-opening with social distancing still essential. Maybe select groups of extended family and / or friends being allowed to congregate in open areas

Run that for a month, constantly tracking stats.

I base this on no insight or knowledge

Your last line suggests you would fit in well here. I have for years.

 

[Animal Cager]

Are we really at 40% unemployment. Is that fact.

The government has budgeted for 6 million out of work. Hopefully they've overestimated, but I don't think so. Do the sums, 6 million would be at least 40% possibly more. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find numbers of how many have actually become unemployed in the last few weeks.

 

[Animal Cager]

Maybe we don’t want 2000 to die

And what will the death toll be after an economic disaster? Of course resultant suicides won't be labelled Coronavirus Lockdown deaths and all the deaths triggered by acute stress won't be either. Then there's the inevitable death that comes from social disintegration and widespread poverty. The funding cuts, etc etc. Of course they won't be recorded as Coronavirus Lockdown deaths, but that number will make 2000 look like a small number.

Answer me this, how many people that are 'stood down' by the shutdown, do you think will have a job or their previous income to go back to in six months?

 

[plugger66]

The government has budgeted for 6 million out of work. Hopefully they've overestimated, but I don't think so. Do the sums, 6 million would be at least 40% possibly more. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find numbers of how many have actually become unemployed in the last few weeks.

So we now have 40% unemployment. I’m sure that’s what you said.

 

[plugger66]

And what will the death toll be after an economic disaster? Of course resultant suicides won't be labelled Coronavirus Lockdown deaths and all the deaths triggered by acute stress won't be either. Then there's the inevitable death that comes from social disintegration and widespread poverty. The funding cuts, etc etc. Of course they won't be recorded as Coronavirus Lockdown deaths, but that number will make 2000 look like a small number.

Answer me this, how many people that are 'stood down' by the shutdown, do you think will have a job or their previous income to go back to in six months?

No idea. I can’t be more honest than that. I mow lawns. I’m not an economist

 

[Keg on legs]

Your last line suggests you would fit in well here. I have for years.

We've noticed

 

[Joffaboy]

The government has budgeted for 6 million out of work. Hopefully they've overestimated, but I don't think so. Do the sums, 6 million would be at least 40% possibly more. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find numbers of how many have actually become unemployed in the last few weeks.

Unbelievable. You dont even understood the difference between unemployed and stood down.

Hilarious. You dont even understand why the depression went for so.long.

Here is a hint Milton Friedman, no govt stimulus for 4 years.

This time govts have thrown the kitchen sink at it. Not billions but trillions.

This will hold the economy together. Make no mistake there will be a deep and prolonged recession with probably double digital unemployment, but your hysterical projections are ludicrous when you dont even understand that the second stimulus package of 120 billion was directed in keeping the jobs of millions when the crisis is over.

Please at least understand the basics before having a hyperbole frenzy.

I'm done, wont respond to someone who thinks we have 40% unemployment.

 

[Animal Cager]

No idea. I can’t be more honest than that. I mow lawns. I’m not an economist

Oh, nice one.

 

[Animal Cager]

So we now have 40% unemployment. I’m sure that’s what you said.

Well no one is giving us precise numbers in the last few weeks. Rest assured its around 20% and going north with a bullet. The govt's estimate is 6 million and they've put their money where their mouth is. We've just seen the first small wave of job losses. 40/50% isn't far way.

 

[triggering bro]

Probably won't get completely wiped out and if just 1 person that has it goes to the footy they can infect 1,000 that then go back home all over Australia and it all starts again.

This is why the end game is a vaccine, which is still 12-18 months away.

ScoMo is delivering on a response model that is sustainable & scaleable.

I‘m working on the assumption that we will be moving between lock down stages for the next 12 months at a minimum.

 

[BrutThough]

This is why the end game is a vaccine, which is still 12-18 months away.

ScoMo is delivering on a response model that is sustainable & scaleable.

I working on the assumption that we will be moving between lock down stages for the next 12 months at a minimum.

They won't keep us in different lockdowns for 12 months. Thats completely unrealistic and will create longer lasting and more deterimental issues to our entire society than this virus will.

 

[triggering bro]

Well no one is giving us precise numbers in the last few weeks. Rest assured its around 20% and going north with a bullet. The govt's estimate is 6 million and they've put their money where their mouth is. We've just seen the first small wave of job losses. 40/50% isn't far way.

Once the dust settles expect many of those that lost their jobs to be diverted to other industries which will lessen the unemployment percentage. Woolworths & Coles are already attempting to poach people from the airline industries who have been stood down or lost their employment. I also know many essential services are reaching out to ex-employees/retirees to return as contractors.

 

[Animal Cager]

Unbelievable. You dont even understood the difference between unemployed and stood down.

Hilarious. You dont even understand why the depression went for so.long.

Here is a hint Milton Friedman, no govt stimulus for 4 years.

This time govts have thrown the kitchen sink at it. Not billions but trillions.

This will hold the economy together. Make no mistake there will be a deep and prolonged recession with probably double digital unemployment, but your hysterical projections are ludicrous when you dont even understand that the second stimulus package of 120 billion was directed in keeping the jobs of millions when the crisis is over.

Please at least understand the basics before having a hyperbole frenzy.

I'm done, wont respond to someone who thinks we have 40% unemployment.

Stood down meaning they are having their wages subsidised by government (for 6 months) whilst they are effectively unemployed. Who cares about playing semantics, they're out of work.

$120 billion! That's going to fix it? We spend 43 billion per year recurrent on disability services alone. 120 billion is loose change in terms of a Federal budget.

How a depression started or should've been handled is irrelevant to my point. I'm talking about what life looks like in a Depression and we may be about to find out. If you think the stimulus will see us ride this through, then you're in a cosy false nirvana.

 

[triggering bro]

They won't keep us in different lockdowns for 12 months. Thats completely unrealistic and will create longer lasting and more deterimental issues to our entire society than this virus will.

I can tell you department heads in essential services are forecasting restrictions until at least the end of the year. Sure we are hopeful we get on top of this virus & relax restrictions appropriately. However, measures that have been put in place are sustainable & scaleable for a reason. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Listen to the wording coming out of the PM’s mouth.

 

[CursingFijian]

A mortality rate of 0.0035% compared to 0.001%

I don't know, are people believing the economy will just snap back into place in say 6 months or even 3 months? I'm curious to know, because that's just not reality.

The peak unemployment rate during the Great Depression was 30%, we currently sit at 40% and rising. The stimulus package as enormous as it is, is a band aid, not a magic wand.

I don't think people appreciate what's coming. Many people that are now middle class will be homeless and may even go hungry.

At the heart of your post is the essence of the Swedish gambit; a calculation that with a reasonable level of precaution, and without hampering everyday activity business can continue as usual, albeit at a reduced level, to facilitate a full economic rebound at the end of the global pandemic. The assumption is that either the virus won't become widespread in Sweden, or either a curative or preventative medicine will be developed soon, or that the 0.035% mortality rate is an acceptable level of casualties in order to preserve the economy.

Interestingly Swedish statistics are that approximately 8% of all detected infections become critical/serious, and 64% of all critical/serious infections that have had an outcome have resulted in death. If you assumed that 40% of their population became infected, and 8% of those became serious and if only 30% of those serious cases resulted in death then approximately 100,000 people are going to die in Sweden in the coming months. If the mortality rate of serious cases stays at 60% then 200,000 people die.

If the infection rate becomes prevalent of people in certain occupations like say hospital staff, hospitality workers and say aged care professionals then I guess those people would start noping right out of their line of work, which would have economic consequences.

What I'm trying to say there is that trying to live with the disease in it's current deadly state is going to have an economic impact regardless. You're just going to have the double whammy of lots of death and the economic down turn. If it collapses the medical system then triple whammy.

It makes much more sense to accept the economic downturn, reduce the rate of infection, preserve the medical system, work hard to find a curative or preventative medicine, and then rebound from there.

 

[BrutThough]

I can tell you department heads in essential services are forecasting restrictions until at least the end of the year. Sure we are hopeful we get on top of this virus & relax restrictions appropriately. However, measures that have been put in place are sustainable & scaleable for a reason. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Listen to the wording coming out of the PM’s mouth.

These current measures aren't sustainable for an extended period of time.

You can't have the solution be worse than the problem, and if they expect society to socially and physically isolate itself for an extended period of time, then we will have irreversible damage to millions of people in within our country for decades to come.

Right now, we have already seen a decline in daily cases which is great. But in a month or two, if these restrictions continue to work and the number of new cases have all but gone, you need to open up society again. You cant keep people locked up waiting for a vaccine for 6 months because some might die from a virus.

 

[triggering bro]

These current measures aren't sustainable for an extended period of time.

You can't have the solution be worse than the problem, and if they expect society to socially and physically isolate itself for an extended period of time, then we will have irreversible damage to millions of people in within our country for decades to come.

Right now, we have already seen a decline in daily cases which is great. But in a month or two, if these restrictions continue to work and the number of new cases have all but gone, you need to open up society again. You cant keep people locked up waiting for a vaccine for 6 months because some might die from a virus.

I agree that when/if it gets better the restrictions will be lifted. Where we disagree is I think restrictions will be reapplied & scaled until we have a vaccine or a very large percentage of the populous have been exposed with an outcome. The latter will also take a long time.

 

[BrutThough]

I agree that when/if it gets better the restrictions will be lifted. Where we disagree is I think restrictions will be reapplied & scaled until we have a vaccine or a very large percentage of the populous have been exposed with an outcome. The latter will also take a long time.

I think tourism - mainly international travel and the cruise industry - will be majority impacted until a vaccine is available. And potentially large scale events.

But things like retail, restaurants - maybe with a restricted amount allowed inside, office work, attractions, parks etc should all be able to return to normal operation (maybe in phases) once there is a seeable improvement. I dont see those types of things being prohibited for an extended period of time.

 

[CursingFijian]

I think tourism - mainly international travel and the cruise industry - will be majority impacted until a vaccine is available. And potentially large scale events.

But things like retail, restaurants - maybe with a restricted amount allowed inside, office work, attractions, parks etc should all be able to return to normal operation (maybe in phases) once there is a seeable improvement. I dont see those types of things being prohibited for an extended period of time.

You would think other industries like the cleaning industry might grow rapidly. And there may be a spike in local manufacturing.