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COX Plate 2013 talk

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Jugada said:
You reckon PDL can win?

I cannot work out for the life of me how he is favourite
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Shouldn't be favourite but has to be a strong chance due to the rain.

Not sure we can trust Bossy but he's been saying PDL has been feeling the tracks since the operation.
 
who is gonna have a crack at this sportingbet pick the top 8 to win a million thing?

should be a bit of fun
 
I think IAD could almost start odds on favourite if this was at Flemington, but still worried about Moonee Valley. For this reason I think they must go forward from a wide barrier as there doesn't appear to be much speed, although there could be a few others who do the same. If he's in the first 4 around the turn he wins, main danger is definitely Fiorente who probably has the best turn of foot in the race. Might play 15 units IAD and 5 units Fiorente. Puissance de lune is the only other with any real chance if everyone gets a crack, but if they were running in lanes I'd believe Dundeel bolts in
 

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terminators said:
How many run an 8 race meeting the night before? Not like Friday night is a massive carnival day like Flemington. Just run the 2 Gp 1s on the Saturday and dump Friday night.
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Why would you dump a profitable race meeting.

Way to damage your product.
 
No worries about IAD at the Valley. I expect him to settle midfield and start h is run at the 500m. Hope that Shinn is patient on Fiorente. Dont want another Green Moon when a 3200m horse is three wide and attacking for the lead. Happy Trails is a chance if he gets a Pinker Pinker type run.
 
It's a strange Cox Plate this year, form is very hard to get a read on, those on here declaring IAD are clearly taking him on trust and believing that he will run to his career peaks achieved in the Autumn this year, he hasn't rated within 5 lengths of that with either of his 2 performances so far this campaign and has missed a run in the lead up.

The issue for the others such as Fiorente and PDL is that they are yet to produce anywhere near their potential either within their campaigns, in previous years all of these horses would need to find several legnths to be competitive but this year now that the mare is not there they may not have to.

This is why I maintain that Long John is every possible chance of being in the finish, he is one horse who has been putting in strong figures in his runs leading in and is on the up. His pedigree suggest he should run the distance unlike Helmet and unlike Helmet he is not going to lead onan unsustainable tempo.

Then throw in the Internationals and the possibility of a wet track and it is not an easy race.

I'd be very careful using the Underwood as a reference for IAD, looks great on paper but the race was a farce.

IAD, Fiorente, PDL, Happy Trails and Long John are all winning hopes and the likes of Green Moon are not without a chance.
 
Jugada said:
You reckon PDL can win?

I cannot work out for the life of me how he is favourite
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What people are forgetting about PDL is that he was just a good finisher until he got out to 2400m for the first time in the Bendigo Cup. He didn't even have a saturday win to his name before the day he became Melbourne Cup Fav.

Compare that to this preparation and he has improved in leaps and bounds, ignore the Underwood as a form reference that race was as useful as last years Geelong Cup at the speed they ran along at.

MV forces you to start your runs by the 600m mark because of how short the straight is and while the Cox plate isn't quite that 2400m+ range where you expect him to peak but it does have that big hill up the back straight that turns it more into a 2200m race then a 2000m one.

I think personally people are overrating IAD, he is in the same class as super cool IMO. Once again a case of people taking too much out of that Underwood Stks win, it was a 600m sprint race.
 
Fa
Main Man said:
It's a strange Cox Plate this year, form is very hard to get a read on, those on here declaring IAD are clearly taking him on trust and believing that he will run to his career peaks achieved in the Autumn this year, he hasn't rated within 5 lengths of that with either of his 2 performances so far this campaign and has missed a run in the lead up.

The issue for the others such as Fiorente and PDL is that they are yet to produce anywhere near their potential either within their campaigns, in previous years all of these horses would need to find several legnths to be competitive but this year now that the mare is not there they may not have to.

This is why I maintain that Long John is every possible chance of being in the finish, he is one horse who has been putting in strong figures in his runs leading in and is on the up. His pedigree suggest he should run the distance unlike Helmet and unlike Helmet he is not going to lead onan unsustainable tempo.

Then throw in the Internationals and the possibility of a wet track and it is not an easy race.

I'd be very careful using the Underwood as a reference for IAD, looks great on paper but the race was a farce.

IAD, Fiorente, PDL, Happy Trails and Long John are all winning hopes and the likes of Green Moon are not without a chance.
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Fact is underwood regardless of race run has shown to be a good form race, AJ has bolted in since, dear Demi ran 3rd in cc and happy trails won the turnbull. I simply want McDonald to go forward because I've never seen a horse pass IAD down the straight and if he's there he just wins.
 
Finding it hard to go past Happy Trails. As much as you want to cross him out because he's happy trails his form has been impeccable this prep. All around these same horses and he's 3 times the price?
Thought's on Super Cool ? Has he been forgotten about a bit? He hasn't done much wrong in my eyes and he's been thrown up at massive odds...Might retire after that quinella :-)
 
I really like Super Cool. Obviously not going as well as some of the main chances but that's why you get $26+. At its best think it has all these covered (at this track) and also think it's better suited than most to lead/race handy, which could be key. Must admit I have no idea how it handles softer ground... Any help?
 
ive had a few e/w bets so far on super cool at 26$ forteller at 21$ and side glance at 67$

going to be very wet so just looking at horses that dont mind the wet i think supercool will finish top 3
 
Trying to work out why I shouldn't be on Foreteller @ $50+ double fixed?
Ran down PDL 3 starts ago (fave) & 2nd to AJ last start over this trip (woulda been fave)
Has a 116 rating against Fiorente 115 (2nd fave) & handles the wet in a non vintage year

seth
 

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sethlad said:
Trying to work out why I shouldn't be on Foreteller @ $50+ double fixed?
Ran down PDL 3 starts ago (fave) & 2nd to AJ last start over this trip (woulda been fave)
Has a 116 rating against Fiorente 115 (2nd fave) & handles the wet in a non vintage year

seth
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SSSHHHHHH!!!!!! Dont ruin it!

Three horse race people IAD, PDL and Fiorente
 
sethlad said:
Trying to work out why I shouldn't be on Foreteller @ $50+ double fixed?
Ran down PDL 3 starts ago (fave) & 2nd to AJ last start over this trip (woulda been fave)
Has a 116 rating against Fiorente 115 (2nd fave) & handles the wet in a non vintage year

seth
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Ladbrokes DFO - $62 :thumbsu:
 
KardiniaPark said:
Thought's on Super Cool ? Has he been forgotten about a bit? He hasn't done much wrong in my eyes and he's been thrown up at massive odds...Might retire after that quinella :)
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Checking in for the Super Cool fan club. I had a little bit at the $26 and $6.50.

Winner at 2000m WFA G1 level - Check
Handles Valley (Beat It's a Dundeel in the Vase last year) - Check
Likes the sting out of the track - Check

It has had excuses the last three. Interference in two of them and Boss said didn't handle hard ground last time. Maybe it's just not going very well this prep, and the barrier is a worry - would have to go forward to be a chance I think, but at a price when there are questions marks over all of them it's worth a spin.
 
Is it just me or is the Turnbull a rubbish form race for the CP, a quick look back and I can only find 2 horses to place in the Turnbull and place in the plate (Zipping and Haradusun) and having to go back to Makybe Diva to find a Turnbull winner winning the Plate.
 
Will Sportsbet pay out all my multis i had with Atlantic Jewel? I had Guelph ($5) in the 1000 gueneas Fawkner ($15) in the CC, AJ in the Cox Plate ($4) and Fiorente in the MC ($10) amongst many others!
 

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I want Shinn to do a Williams of 2012. Ride a Melbourne Cup hope three wide shooting the breeze, attacking for the lead. Gives you better odds in the Melbourne Cup.
 
Dinga_19 said:
Thieven bastards
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Pre-field betting has always been just there to suck in the idiots. They offer you big odds based on the fact 25-40% of the money is a 100% win to them.

Even if you have inside info or know the horse intimately, horses will very rarely follow the script out exactly as you plan.
 

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