Racing Cox Plate

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FallingLiefs said:
Tough one AE was dominant at 3 but we are yet to learn what she can do at 4. I'm going to say no but i'm not going to defend that stance strongly.
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If you draw a line through Almond Eyes best win in the Japan Cup (trailed the leader) vs Lys Gracieux last run (sat outside the leader) , they both beat the same horses in Kiseki and Suave Richard in the same finishing order. Both runs looked equally impressive on their own merits.
 
Back to the Cox Plate. Not touching LG anymore, have a feeling that may be rock bottom I feel like i should back her but I won't. I just really can't find much i'd want to invest in. MW/Shark/Kluger marginal bet. Dance/VE bit too short but not 100% potting them.

I think the only scenario where I have a go is a rain dance and get in on Avilius ticks boxes, the top end ability, map, versatility etc but not diving into single figures.
 

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Steady on with the LG being the greatest who has raced in Australia, I think she will win by 10 lengths but lets see her first.

As for using Timeform ratings to judge who is the best, pointless. Does Ten Sovereigns have its rating downgraded to the less than 100 it deserves against our sprinters?
Timeform totally over rates our middle distance/stayers and over rates the European Sprinters.

The Australians in the Cox plate are Pinker pinker quality this year....absolute garbage. MJ, Castle and TAS are still to be tested properly in this class but i doubt they will measure up.

As for LG beating Winx... Kluger got sneaky close last year to Winx and i think LG is a much better horse... given Winx is untested against actual good horses we will never know.
 
HeathComeBack said:
Steady on with the LG being the greatest who has raced in Australia, I think she will win by 10 lengths but lets see her first.

As for using Timeform ratings to judge who is the best, pointless. Does Ten Sovereigns have its rating downgraded to the less than 100 it deserves against our sprinters?
Timeform totally over rates our middle distance/stayers and over rates the European Sprinters.

The Australians in the Cox plate are Pinker pinker quality this year....absolute garbage. MJ, Castle and TAS are still to be tested properly in this class but i doubt they will measure up.

As for LG beating Winx... Kluger got sneaky close last year to Winx and i think LG is a much better horse... given Winx is untested against actual good horses we will never know.
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:drunk::drunk::drunk::drunk:
 
Times like this we have to remember To the World went from getting beat by Gentildonna by 1L, beating Just a Way and gold ship to scraping in over Who Shot TheBarman behind Hartnell.
 

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HeathComeBack said:
As for LG beating Winx... Kluger got sneaky close last year to Winx and i think LG is a much better horse... given Winx is untested against actual good horses we will never know.
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Lol sneaky close!?! He only ran on at the death after she had put the race to bed - its like saying Dancetereria got sneaky close to Enable in the Eclipse.
 


cant be bothered arguing with Paris but posting this for form purposes. Kluger was as good a run against Winx as any in her latter career. Put lengths on Hartnell and Hartnell should have run in the Cox plate instead of Avilius. MJ handled Hartnell comfortably many times and Hartnell probably at his best better than BHB and that lot of turn takers at WFA

so going by this (and as i said before dry track the key) he is clear top 3 pick.
 
HeathComeBack said:


cant be bothered arguing with Paris but posting this for form purposes. Kluger was as good a run against Winx as any in her latter career. Put lengths on Hartnell and Hartnell should have run in the Cox plate instead of Avilius. MJ handled Hartnell comfortably many times and Hartnell probably at his best better than BHB and that lot of turn takers at WFA

so going by this (and as i said before dry track the key) he is clear top 3 pick.
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My concerns on that race

Winx was tapering the last 2 years
His SPs
His previous run
Hartnell has mixed his form since Winx broke his heart.
 
FallingLiefs said:
My concerns on that race

Winx was tapering the last 2 years
His SPs
His previous run
Hartnell has mixed his form since Winx broke his heart.
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Hartnell has been most consistent throughout his career, just depends on his opposition. in his "prime" he was beating walkers. Winx did not break his heart, he won the Epsom and Memsie after she beat him. Klugers previous run was in the slow. Interestingly Hartnell gave it 5kgs and beat it that day, In the QE Kluger gave it 3 lengths start and killed it ( and killed Happy Clapper too) so thats why i think it was the wet track. As for SP? 100 percent irrelevant he should have started that price in the QE on the Doncaster run.
He is huge overs. The quinella with LG is very inviting
 
HeathComeBack said:
Hartnell has been most consistent throughout his career, just depends on his opposition. in his "prime" he was beating walkers. Winx did not break his heart, he won the Epsom and Memsie after she beat him. Klugers previous run was in the slow. Interestingly Hartnell gave it 5kgs and beat it that day, In the QE Kluger gave it 3 lengths start and killed it ( and killed Happy Clapper too) so thats why i think it was the wet track. As for SP? 100 percent irrelevant he should have started that price in the QE on the Doncaster run.
He is huge overs. The quinella with LG is very inviting
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No doubt he is overs but the QE run looked super favourable to him on paper because he wasn't really put into the race at all and ran on late past those who were. It was kind of like a better version of Danceteria's completely shithouse Eclipse run that was being hyped to buggery.
 
I was looking earlier at the record of the 3yo in Cox Plate. There have been 4 winners last 25 years and of those 2 were v good horses (Octagonal and So You Think), the other two (Savabeel and Shamus Award) sitting alongside Pinker Pinker as the weakest winners of the race.

Last placing by a 3yo now is 3 years ago when the filly Yankee Rose ran third 8 lengths astern of Winx.

Royal Symphony was the last 3yo to contest the CP in 2017 with no runner competing last year,
 
Hartnell has been dreadfully mishandled. The past few years have shown us his best racing as an older horse has been around a mile with his runs spaced. His only wins in 2 years were fresh in the Orr and off a 3 week break in the Epsom. Instead they’ve run him in everything but the Alaskan Iditarod. The Godolphin dartboard.

Three weeks leading into the McKinnon should help, but he won’t win.
 
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