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Racing Cox Plate

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iluvparis said:
Yeah I think the Valley actually drains pretty well too 2-5mm the day before and 2-5mm day off shouldn't have too much impact. As Liefsy says though - if it does go soft Avi wlil flog any of the local brigade.
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Prepared to give Avilius a complete forgive for last years cox plate. Wasn’t much more than a well paid barrier trial on the way to the Melbourne Cup where he was being targeted (shouldn’t have been though). No way Cummings wanted to break him trying to take on a horse he couldn’t beat.

I think he leads the locals home good or soft track, and with a drift in the market could be worth a saver in case the decent internationals bomb for some reason, especially for those who took the Early odds the fave.
 
99 Problems said:
Prepared to give Avilius a complete forgive for last years cox plate. Wasn’t much more than a well paid barrier trial on the way to the Melbourne Cup where he was being targeted (shouldn’t have been though). No way Cummings wanted to break him trying to take on a horse he couldn’t beat.

I think he leads the locals home good or soft track, and with a drift in the market could be worth a saver in case the decent internationals bomb for some reason, especially for those who took the Early odds the fave.
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James didn't sound too confident on Racing.com the other day - doesn't think he is a MV horse; wants to try and ride him inside runners rather than swooping wide - still has the MC in mind etc etc

If he is leading the locals home on dry it probably means the raiders have run 1-2-3

Happy to forgive last years CP but in no way can I forgive the Caulfield Stakes when he had every possible and got beat by BHB. That's not CP winning form.
 
iluvparis said:
James didn't sound too confident on Racing.com the other day - doesn't think he is a MV horse; wants to try and ride him inside runners rather than swooping wide - still has the MC in mind etc etc

If he is leading the locals home on dry it probably means the raiders have run 1-2-3

Happy to forgive last years CP but in no way can I forgive the Caulfield Stakes when he had every possible and got beat by BHB. That's not CP winning form.
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I hadn’t seen that interview, definitely concerning and can’t believe he’s considering the MC again. The worst thing for the horse from last years cup was it had an excuse after the race. He had no chance last year and none this year.

Not convinced internationals go 1-2-3 just because there’s a decent chance at least one of them struggles with the travel and can’t have Danceteria at all. Kluger’s QE run looked better than it was in reality and went unplaced in a Doncaster before that. COGH definitely isn’t bomb proof.

Basically I think an international wins with the fave a clear top pick, but hard to get excited about current price. Magic Wand and Kluger probably the only 2 in the market that look a touch of overs to me currently. Exotics aren’t my go but probably the most sensible play given current prices.
 

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Gavin Excell said:
Castle into $7.50

Perhaps equally absurd, Mystic Journey now into $6.50 second pick
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This is zero horse analysis but it is betting analysis.

Every man and his dog is on LG antepost. Bookmakers went up 3.20-3.50 even with that huge hold on LG. So if that was me and I think what they’d do is mark her unders to cover them early days. so even though I thought she’d be 2.90 that says to me I overrate her.

She’s clearly the obvious horse and these types can firm but mostly drift because bookies see everything plus more than the average punter sees.

CV and MJ just eating that extra percentage.
 
FallingLiefs said:
This is zero horse analysis but it is betting analysis.

Every man and his dog is on LG antepost. Bookmakers went up 3.20-3.50 even with that huge hold on LG. So if that was me and I think what they’d do is mark her unders to cover them early days. so even though I thought she’d be 2.90 that says to me I overrate her.

She’s clearly the obvious horse and these types can firm but mostly drift because bookies see everything plus more than the average punter sees.

CV and MJ just eating that extra percentage.
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What price do you think the Jap will start then?
If the rain comes will they push her out a bit more?
 
TBellicious said:
What price do you think the Jap will start then?
If the rain comes will they push her out a bit more?
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Like I said previously. I have no idea with her. She can start anywhere between $2.40 and $4.60 and I wouldn't blink. I have no idea how the market will treat her. If it rains yes she's probably going to drift but even then I wouldn't be stunned if she firmed. Her SP may be of more interest than the race.
 
FallingLiefs said:
Like I said previously. I have no idea with her. She can start anywhere between $2.40 and $4.60 and I wouldn't blink. I have no idea how the market will treat her. If it rains yes she's probably going to drift but even then I wouldn't be stunned if she firmed. Her SP may be of more interest than the race.
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The average punter is a know it all and will see the barrier as a disadvantage plus the fact aussies are racist in general and have a superiority complex towards their own.

That's the reason for the drift. When they did the barrier draw i was hoping for a wide gate personally. Could not be happier.

I think she will lead throughout and based on her racing pattern last start from a wide gate and the fact previous Japanese runners in Melbourne have generally wanted the lead at all costs.

My only worry is Magic Wand going for the lead as well. Could make things hairy.
 
Veer Right said:
The average punter is a know it all and will see the barrier as a disadvantage plus the fact aussies are racist in general and have a superiority complex towards their own.

That's the reason for the drift. When they did the barrier draw i was hoping for a wide gate personally. Could not be happier.

I think she will lead throughout and based on her racing pattern last start from a wide gate and the fact previous Japanese runners in Melbourne have generally wanted the lead at all costs.

My only worry is Magic Wand going for the lead as well. Could make things hairy.
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The average punter that moves Cox Plate markets is not.
 
Veer Right said:
The average punter is a know it all and will see the barrier as a disadvantage plus the fact aussies are racist in general and have a superiority complex towards their own.

That's the reason for the drift. When they did the barrier draw i was hoping for a wide gate personally. Could not be happier.

I think she will lead throughout and based on her racing pattern last start from a wide gate and the fact previous Japanese runners in Melbourne have generally wanted the lead at all costs.

My only worry is Magic Wand going for the lead as well. Could make things hairy.
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she doesnt have to lead. She sat outside them at her last start.
 

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Well market is currently at 120% so purely mathematically that $3.90 is closer to $4.60 in bookies opinion.

Gut feel says $4.40 is her SP.

I've seen similar markets where she doesn't start fave but that's not happening.
 
FallingLiefs said:
I've seen similar markets where she doesn't start fave but that's not happening.
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LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL
LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

Even by peak contrarian Liefzy standard this is laughable
 
Also while rambling people who like their SP's and that includes a huge amount of people that move markets will be drawn to MJ. Average SP this preparation of $2.70 at WFA or harder scales. yes inferior form to fave but she will be rock hard in the market late IMO.
 
iluvparis said:
LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL
LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

Even by peak contrarian Liefzy standard this is laughable
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It's not happening. Replace this with a bm78 on a saturday with same horse profiles i'd give it a chance. This opinion has nothing to do with horses this is purely predicting the market.
 
FallingLiefs said:
Also while rambling people who like their SP's and that includes a huge amount of people that move markets will be drawn to MJ. Average SP this preparation of $2.70 at WFA or harder scales. yes inferior form to fave but she will be rock hard in the market late IMO.
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How do you explain her Turnbull drift then when all same factors were in play
 

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FallingLiefs said:
It's not happening. Replace this with a bm78 on a saturday with same horse profiles i'd give it a chance. This opinion has nothing to do with horses this is purely predicting the market.
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How many internationals clear fave have you seen run around in BM 78s - there is legit zero samples you could be drawing from here - you are completely making stuff up on that point.
 
FallingLiefs said:
$3.40-$3.90 was not a problem. Still SP 3.90 at a negative WFA swing against the entire field is a compliment. That's a very strong SP.
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Yes but she drifted - you said the pros love her SP - so why didn't she firm?

$6.50 in this field is a compliment - it is a ludicrously strong SP
 

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