Analysis Crows killer instinct?

[GrommoT]

I thought it might be interesting to track whether the Crows have developed a killer instinct when they play teams that is widely considered that we should win against and follow through on - whether we turn up or not.

Or do the players get a touch of complacency sometimes?

My theory is that the Crows in recent seasons (seems to me) have often:

• played above themselves when facing opposition generally considered strong/stronger (eg. the Eagles game late last season)

• underestimated the opposition considered weaker and the Crows ought to win comfortably against but don't seem to have turned up for the game.

So I'd like to keep track of games this season and record who we're playing, what seems to be the general expectation of how we should go (and assume the players have similar views), a rough summary of how we went - and see if there's a pattern to it.

Guess we can't really tell how the players actually feel but let's assume they share similar expectations as us fans, the media, bookies, etc.

Being Switched On

When playing a weaker team, a team with a real killer instinct should start games really "switched on" and use their advantage to get on top and put a lead on the weaker team. Of course, a weaker team could start a game really switched on and play above themselves so the stronger team could find themselves in trouble if they were complacent and not switched on.

So it is useful to list what the signs are that a team is switched on - which may include players showing some of the following:
* High intensity and alertness
* Work rate & running hard:
__ - to be first to the ball
__ - to chase, close down, pressure & tackle opponents
__ - not giving up chase
__ - to create options for team mates (vs. standing still too much)
__ - in packs
* Fast, sharp skills (vs. fumbly skills, mistakes)
* Decisiveness (vs. indecision, hesitation)
* Looking determined (vs. looking disinterested, leaving things to other team mates)
* Putting body on the line
* Genuine, successful smothering attempts
* Making those second efforts, 1-percenters


Is the Club doing anything about this?

Andrew Fagan was on The Sunday Footy Show (20170924) and was asked about the Crows' deadly stare during the national anthem at the start of the Prelim Final and Fagan says:

"Oh look, the guys have been working all year on ... getting the right mindset ... and they do that in lots of different ways, how they approach training ... and look, this is just a part of that, it's about preparing yourselves, it's not really about the opposition as such, it's about ensuring that they are just ready to go. It was only spoken a little prior to the first game they did it."

Tex was also reported on C10 before the GWS QF game saying "Mindfulness is our secret to September." and I believe mindfulness (a Buddhist practice for paying attention in a particular way: on purpose, in the present moment) leads to playing in the moment and is a key to "turning up".

Be nice to think we here might have been of some influence in getting the club to spend effort on getting players to turn up for games.

 

[GrommoT]

[AFC Team lineups] _____Odds: us/them head-to-head [odds 1] [odds 2]

Game: ... WB 20190825, Mars
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 3.20/1.35
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... Coll 20190817, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.60/2.35
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... WCE 20190811, Optus
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 4.00/1.25
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... StK 20190803, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.37/3.10
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... Carl 20190727, MCG
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.55/2.50
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... Ess 20190719, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.44/2.80
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ..

Game: ... GC 20190713, Metricon
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.16/5.20
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report

Game: ... Poot 20190706, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.70/2.20
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ... disappointing

Game: ... Cats 20190628, GMHBA
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 3.35/1.33
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ... lost their way

Game: ... Rich 20190613, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.25/4.00
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... GWS 20190608, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.00/1.85
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... Melb 20190601, Darwin
Teams: .. [ours & upd] [theirs] Odds --/--
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ...

Game: ... WCE 20190525, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.60/2.40
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ] [1]
AFC: ...... Match report ... fade-out

Game: ... Bris 20190518, Gabba
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.10/1.75
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report ... to improve

Game: ... Poot 20190511, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.67/2.25
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report

Game: ... Freo 20190505, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.32/3.50
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Match report

Game: ... StK 20190427, Marvel
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.05/1.80
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Crows trump Saints

Game: ... GC 20190421, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds ---/---
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ] Scorpus
AFC: ...... Simply the Betts, images

Game: ... North 20190413, Marvel
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.95/1.80
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Roos topple Crows, Pyke, numbers

Game: ... Cats 20190404, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.00/1.85
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... Crows fall to Cats, Pyke, numbers

Game: ... Swans 20190329, SCG
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs]
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ], AFC:
AFC: ...... match report, Pyke, numbers, best photos

Game: ... Hawks 20190323, AO
Teams: .. [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.35/3.25
Expect: ..
Result: ... [ Review thread ]
AFC: ...... match report, numbers

---> more games: 2018
---> more games: 2017 rounds 8 to GF
---> more games: 2016 Games & 2017 rounds 1 to 7

 

[Carmo]

We were terrible at it under craig, we were still terrible at it under sanderson, last year with the first two games of the year and the eagles, essendon and brisbane games was the first year in a long while we have done it.

It's too early to tell this year.

We also have to remember its a young team, a bit of inconsistency is to be expected. We should just be happy with every win we get (though I admit I love a step on the throat early and keep it there and the associated psychological return on investment this gives).

Another prob is changing expectations from the supporter group, based on my estimates before the season we'd be a 10th to fourth side, so middle of the road, I should just be happy with some bashings of bottom few sides, we should count the performance against port as a real blessing and very unexpected. Even the kangaroos result should be taken as a pretty good effort.

 

[GrommoT]

I think the players went into the Port game expecting a bit of a scrap so were switched on and with our new faster running game just blitzed them.

Wherever we are on the ladder, you can always look at the opposition and estimate that they're stronger than us, similar to us or weaker than us. I think we've usually done well to acquit ourselves in the first two cases but not always in the third. We've had quite a large amount of player changes from last year so it will be interesting to see what we're like this year.

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​

2017 Games (rounds 1 to 7 )

- 2016 games further below​

Game | North 20170506, Blundstone
\Expect | Should win this game - team unchanged from last week.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.15/5.50
Faceoff! Kangaroos vs The Adelaide Crows!
\Result |

We played on a ground that none of our players knew how to play. North know how to play that ground perfectly they suckered is in to a few things like kicking out to the attacking side etc. ... [Aaron929] s**t ground, s**t weather and we didnt mentally turn up. Still no excuse but thats what happened. [GROTTO] It was them kicking with the wind in the first quarter, and smart play by them combined with dumb play by us. They play Blundstone very well, we played it like idiots. [OutofTownCrow]
INTERESTING... A bit of second hand information. But I spoke with a guy who has links at the club. He said that the fitness team drilled the players into the ground going into the North Melbourne game with no warning. It only eased off after the Carlton game again with no warning with the intention that the players will be in prime condition going into the finals. The expectation is that we go into the finals like we performed in the first six weeks. [Matman23]

Game | Richmond 20170430, AO
\Expect | People generally think we should win this game as we are going well and playing at home but Richmond are also at top of the table just below us so we are likely to have a battle on our hands.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.18/5.00
Face Off Rnd 6 Adel vs Rich - Hardwick and the Angry Lynch
\Result | ...

Game | Gold Coast 20170422, Metricon
\Expect | ...
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: ???/???
Face / Off - Adelaide Crows versus Gold Coast's Uns
\Result | ...

Game | Essendon 20170415, AO
\Expect | Most fans generally expect us to beat them (should) but need to be on our guard - bit hard to read current form of the Bombers at the moment. Will Crows start with their customary mid-intensity start while the opposition start all guns blazing so we get a bit behind and then claw back in front?
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.16/5.25
\Result | ...

Game | Port 20170408, AO
\Expect | Both teams are 1 & 2 on table so playing well, we generally feel it will be a close tough game but feel confident of getting over them.
Face Off Adelaide Vs Port, 1 v 2 Showdown
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.55/2.45
\Result | A tough Showdown game - both teams definitely showed up for this game although the Crows had what is becoming their customary start game in 2nd/3rd gear in the first quarter, perhaps made to look a bit switched off on the surface by Port's intensity at the start. Luckily for us, Port missed quite a few goals (goalposts were our friends this game) they should have got which kept us not far away from them. Crows were leading by about 26 points at 3 quarter time seemingly in control so it was interesting to see whether Crows would let up or not. Although Port did make a strong fightback, it was good to see Crows remained pretty much switched on to run out the game.

Good win on the whole. We didn't play at our absolute best, but Showdowns are never easy. I think we looked like a much better side than them in the second and (early) third quarters. ... Looks like we're getting better at weathering the Port Power storms, as we don't crap ourselves as much when they get a run on like we used to. ...more... [RippaRiley43]

Game | Hawks 20170401, MCG
\Expect | Think after last game's result and our new found speed in the team, most are confident we will do well (esp. as Hawks are bringing 3 young players and Hodge also comes back in) but this is Hawthorn!
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.78/2.05
\Result | Outside of the first fifteen or so minutes today we outplayed Hawthorn consistently for the entire match. Really good win Beating Hawthorn at the MCG just seems like one of those things that doesn't happen for the Crows, hell, winning at the MCG at all is rare! Really even spread of contributors, which will need to be the case if we're going to do well this year. [cmndstab]

Game | GWS 20170326, AO
\Expect | Weren't sure what to expect.
Lineups: .
\Result | Smashed them.

2016 Games

Game | Sydney 20160917, SCG
\Expect | Semi Final - Swans favoured to win and can't see the boys taking them lightly so reckon we will turn up mentally for this game.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 2.45/1.58
\Result | .

Game | North 20160910, AO
\Expect | Elimination Final - all or nothing tonight - boys are strongly favoured to win. If the boys don't turn up in the right frame of mind, they probably never will
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.15/5.75
\Result | .

Game | West Coast 20160826, AO
\Expect |.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.28/3.75
\Result | .

Game | Port 20160820, AO
\Expect |.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.11/6.75
\Result | .

Game | Dockers 20160814, Domain
\Expect |.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.10/7.0
\Result | .

Game | Brisbane 20160806, AO
\Expect |1.01/17.0 odds again - we should be able to learn something about the Crows' killer instinct in this game.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.01/17.0
\Result | .

Game | Bombers 20160731, AO
\Expect |1.01/17.0 odds - we should be able to learn something about the Crows' killer instinct in this game.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.01/17.0
\Result | Essendon gave a good account of themselves but we did our usual steady approach to pull ahead to a 100 point lead in the final quarter before letting the Bombers sneak in 3 late goals. So we got well ahead and eased up a bit at the end - we didn't really sink the boot in at the end but maybe we were just tired? Or wrap things up for the next game (we did lose Jacobs early on)?

Game | Geelong 20160723, Skilled Stadium
\Expect | Even though their form have dipped in recent rounds, Geelong at home are a tough assignment - would expect our boys to go into the game firing.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 2.05/1.78
\Result | "Very poor game after half time. We took it up to them in the first but could not sustain it." Both teams started the game in good spirits but their greater knowledge of how to play their home ground and simply were better on the night won them the game.

Game | Collingwood 20160716, AO
\Expect | The Crows are expected to beat the Pies who, against expectations managed to beat GWS last round. Guessing players would be confident but wary of the Pies this time round. It's also Thompson's 300th game so expect the players to lift for that.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.16/5.25
\Result | It was a cold, greasy night - difficult for skillful play - but we managed to get away to a good start, with both teams seeming to be quite switched on. Then in a very similar pattern to previous games against teams we were favoured to win, the Pies pegged us back to bring things back to near even for some while before we pull away at the end. The Pies were playing well and could have well toppled us (as they would have in recent seasons) so it was a good win for us.

Game | Carlton 20160710, MCG
\Expect | This is definitely a good game to look at the Crows' killer instinct - the Blues haven't been playing that well and although this has been a round of upsets so far, the Crows really should comfortably beat the Blues if both teams are playing at their current best form.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.16/5.25
\Result | I thought we started reasonably well but Carlton were keen to have a scrap which made things often not work for ours guys when they tried to do tricky things on the field. Eventually we wore them down pulling away to a 10 goal win (though the game didn't feel like a 10 goal win).

Game | Demons 20160703, MCG
\Expect | We should win this game if we start switched on but Melb are no pushover and we have had a history of losing to them in recent past, quite likely because we have found ourselves in this same position of being favoured and not starting switched on.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.27/3.80
\Result | "Was always going to be a tough match. To be off our game and still win by 20+ away from home against a side that is unpredictable, inconsistent but capable of first class footy, and also played out of its skin, indicates the character and strength of resolve the Crows have developed. Most of us realists were tipping mid 20s, and that's what we got." [footy4ever] [ But don't mention the umpires! ]
Think we started quite well, thought we were showing a lot of determination and pack-mentality that it could have gotten ugly for the Demons ... then the Umps had to get their knobs in the way.
[ Did I say don't mention the umpires? ]

Game | Roos 20160623, AO
\Expect | Almost forgotten what footy is after this bye but think the boys should feel confident but wary about the Roos in what is expected to be a very wet, windy and cold game so hoping we'll start pretty switched on.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.40/3.05
\Result | Boys started pretty well getting out to about a 6 goal lead before the Roos turned the game into an arm wrestle and brought things back to evens at the end of the 3Q. Then we picked up our game gradually to boot away to a good win.

Game | Eagles 20160611, Domain
\Expect | Bit late with this entry but would have thought the boys would go into this game on tenterhooks and so they have with a reasonably good start looking fairly switched on.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 3.50/1.28
\Result | Wow, what a game! We started brightly but the Eagles gradually strong-armed themselves to get on top. They looked bigger, stronger, faster and like they were going to pummel us but somehow, we stayed within a few goals of them the whole game before they seem to ground to a halt in the last quarter and we exploded for an amazing win.

Game | Saints 20160605, AO
\Expect | Should be a game we win but the Saints are no pushover so another game that could tell us something about the Crows' meaness.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.15/5.50
\Result | .

Game | GWS 20160528, AO
\Expect | Should be an exciting game. They're a young talented side doing well - can't see us being complacent against them.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.85/1.95
\Result | A win is a good win. Haven't really watched the first half of the game properly but it sounded like the Crows started in their usual second gear before really cranking it up in the third, before almost grinding to a halt in the 4th. Is that because they spent their petrol tickets in the 3rd or did they suddenly let their guard down because they realised they got well ahead?

Game | Suns 20160521, Metricon
\Expect | This is certainly a good game to look at the Crows' killer instinct if the Bookies are right.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.04/12.0 - Jeebus!
\Result | Missed watching the start of the game but it sounded like our typical 2nd gear start again before cranking it up a bit. Didn't really sink the boot in when we got well ahead towards the end but that's not unreasonable.

Game | Cats 20160513, AO - Sh!!!t - it's Friday the 13th!
\Expect | Cats are near the top of the table but haven't really beaten teams that have been strong this season so players would probably feel confident but wary about the Cats. That plus the return of Voldemort should motivate the players to start the game well.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.90/1.90
\Result | Again we seem to like to start things in middle gear and gradually build up through the game but the Cats just jumped us from the start and managed to keep a step ahead all the way. The fact we somehow managed to get within a few points of them near the end of the game shows we don't just throw in the towel when we're getting beaten.

Game | Bulldogs 20160507, Etihad
\Expect | Doggies have some significant outs and rumoured soreness affecting many players, support for us in the media seems mixed and we seem to think we're in with a good shot. Wouldn't think the players would underestimate the Doggies given what they did to us this time last year.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 2.15/1.72
\Result | Sigh... where do we start? Don't think we went in with a complacent attitude but it's starting to look like we like to start things in middle gear and cruise along and build up as the game moves on. We encountered a Dogs side going at full pelt, applying very high pressure and playing with a lot of skill to blow the game out. But we hung in there and were almost within reach of what would have been an unbelievable turnaround - at least it shows we're not a team to give up.

Game | Freo 20160430, AO
\Expect | Finally! We might see what sort of killer instinct the Crows have with a game where Crows should win (perhaps a big thumping one) with Freo at the bottom on 5 losses and will be without Fyfe, Johnson, Sandilands and others.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.06/9.50 (CRIKEY!!!)
\Result | Looked like we didn't mentally turn up for this game but it was probably more Freo playing better than they have been and grinding the game down somewhat. But we seem to be a calm, steady team that works at a steady pace to gain control with our current skillful quick hands to find teammates and forward ball movement to win out the game under our control.
Would say we were neither lazy nor fierce today.

Game | Hawks 20160422, MCG
\Expect | Despite doing well last week and the footy world starting to jump on our wagon, think general feeling again is we have a chance but probably up against it - don't really know what to expect.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 3.00/1.40
Again, can't imagine players would have any complacency for this match.
\Result | Sigh... we waz robbzed! We were right in it all the way in a huge game under massive pressure. We waz robbzed!!!

Game | Sydney 20160416, AO
\Expect | Think general feeling is we have a chance but probably up against it.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.95/1.85
Can't imagine players would have any complacency for this match.
\Result | The boys definite started the game switched on to withstand an early onslaught by the Swans to stay well in it in an arm wrestle of a game. Buddy & Heeney were awesome in a generally good team but our skill was good and applied tremendous pressure all over the ground to win an incredible game.

Game | Richmond 20160409, Etihad
\Expect | They have Deledio and other important players out and had a bad 1 point loss to Magpies last round, we have full squad to choose from, team unchanged.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.80/2.00
Think we feel confident of win.
\Result | Game started with 2 late changes (Brouch & Lynch out), boys started fairly switched on in a scrappy 1st quarter, Crows win comfortably despite a larger lead at start of 4th qtr.
We weren't complacent but we also did not sink the boot in (maybe due to reduced rotations cap).

Game | Port 20160402 Showdown, AO
\Expect | They have a few key players out and we have a good chance - but it's a Showdown!
[Team lineup]
\Result | Smashed them in the start and most of the game.

Game | North 20160326, Etihad
\Expect | Think we were a reasonable chance against them.
[Team lineup]
\Result | We turned up but bad errors cost us game we should have won.

 

[little graham]

This is a different group to what we've ever seen. While the leadership group consists of players from last years list, we'll be getting the job done. I'm expecting a few sides to get rolled badly by us.

 

[xazos79]

I can live with a loss as long as the intensity is high level. That Melbourne game a couple of years back at AO was the most insipid display I've ever seen. Last year I can recall a few games where we came in switched off. I hope it doesn't happen at all this year.

 

[GreyCrow]

Its always a worry. Unfortunately I think we contribute to it. Not saying that every Crow player ( Hi Brad) reads BF or specific forums , but there is enough going around on Twitter etc that they would be getting an inflated view of their work rate. Does that mean we stop talking the players up? Of course not. Its always going to happen in a 2 team town. But great thread and look forward to how it goes.

Will you base expectation on punting odds or a sense of opinion from this board?

 

[GrommoT]

Will you base expectation on punting odds or a sense of opinion from this board?

Funny you should say that, I've just added odds info for next game - I guess the bookies have a good handle of what expectations are - and keep using what we on BF think.

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​

2017 Games (rounds 8 to GF )


i attended a few and watched the rest of the games. here is our season: ... [officialjc]

Game | Rich 20170930, MCG
\Expect | Well... here we are, we've finally made to the last game in September at last!
Where to start, Crows have looked awesome in the QF and PF - they started each game really switched on - players were running in packs for each other, pressuring the opposition with hard and fast tackles, players' skills were very, very sharp - and won convincingly in both games.
On the other hand, Richmond's applied good pressure against their opposition leading to tough, dour games - but the games were scrappy affairs, the skills looked rather unpolished and didn't look very convincing.
Despite not having Smithers and Gov, the Crows are looking ominous - taller and bigger, more skillful than Richmond. Richmond of course have Brownlow medallist Dusty and managed to have Cotchin cleared by the MRP to play.
Fans and neutral observers generally have the Crows as strong favourites to win. There have been many omens for the Crows to win - won in '97 when opposition team had the Brownlow wiinner and others HERE .
Personally think if we perform as we have been the last few games, we really should win.
It is hard to imagine the Crows taking Richmond lightly, especially now it seems the Club take seriously efforts to ensure players are switched on at the start of games by dipping into meditative practices from the start of the year and the now famous stare during the national anthem.
So predict that the Crows will start very switched on - will Richmond match Adelaide's intensity? If not, can see the Crows blow out to a big lead and if so, it is likely the Crows will ease back if recent games are any guide - but then this is the Big Dance and maybe they'll just kick on for a change - but if so, will the Crows be able to maintain their alertness and wait for Richmond to come back at them?
If they got to a big lead, easing back and waiting for the opposition to fight back to get near level requires the opposition to spend a lot of energy and work, in which case the Crows should have fuel in the tank to stamp their authority again - provided the Crows do not switch off completely. This has been the way many Crows game have gone this season.
Giddy up, Crows!!!
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.70/2.20
\Result | From the outset we were fumbly and it didn't stop all game. I can understand in the first quarter to be fumbly but we just never settled.
After quarter time we were pulverized in just about every way possible. The ball bounced Richmond's way, they were first to every contest, even won 2 on 1 contests. Their big name players stood up and ours didn't. [SloaneysDanger] We'd handled their heat easily and were up. Had shots at goal early in Q2. Game turned halfway through the second quarter. Was very similar to the Melbourne game earlier in the year at AO. Including the epic goal drought. [Drugs Are Bad Mackay?] Regarding the game itself, Richmond's pressure was the difference. It looked to me like they were more willing to take risks and playing to win whereas the Crows were hesitant and playing not to lose. Tigers seemed marginally more willing to 'pay the price' and in scrappy GFs that's a big deal. ... [A Cut Above] The precise kicks and short leads don't stand up in games like this. A few of our forwards rely on this delivery (eg Lynch) and are ineffective without it. Always a lot more bombs up the line in tough finals but our key forwards aren't the pack-busting types (apart from McGovern). ... Our old foe of panicking under pressure in the midfield and bombing returned. I thought we'd got rid of that habit but under pressure we returned to old ways. [Drugs Are Bad Mackay?] Just didn't handle the occasion or the pressure at all. Thought our backline stood up pretty well. Midfield woeful... Fumbled and panicked with the ball, while their defensive pressure without it was a shadow of Richmond's. Forwards were barely sighted. Having the mids just blindly bombing it in there long and high all day didn't make their jobs any easier, but still non-competitive. [Jarman3] What I noticed early in the second quarter, even when the game was in the balance, was that there were too many passengers. M.Crouch, Sloane, Greenwood, Laird were good early, then the latter two fell away, then it seemed like I hadn't seen half the team in ages. Unbelievable amount of passengers today. And we looked dreadfully slow. like really, really slow. They clogged the corridor, they didn't allow us to cut though the middle. Their pressure was mental and we were panicking and in doubt all game. And so many FUMBLES. All day. [Drummond] Replacing McGovern with Otten was a mistake, a lesson they should clearly have learned from previous experience. We clearly had the opportunity to replace him with a smaller & more mobile player, but we chose to go with the glacially slow & immobile Otten. That said, McGovern isn't a run & carry player, so we didn't lose a run/carry player, we just missed an opportunity to bring an extra one into the team.
There was no "extra tall defender" - we'd been using a structure with 3 tall defenders all season.
We still had Mackay, Seedsman, Atkins. None of these players had any impact on the game whatsoever. Neither did our inside/outside midfielders in Sloane, Brouch & Greenwood.
The problem wasn't a change in the structure. It wasn't a lack of run & carry players. We started the game with the same number of run & carry players we'd had all season. The problem was that Richmond didn't allow them time & space to run into, and our players didn't work hard enough to create that space. [Vader]

Game | Cats 20170922, AO
\Expect | Only one game would be bigger than this one so would think the boys would turn up for this game. But despite losing Gov and Smith from our line up (though getting Sloane back), Crows seem to have a lot favouring them - have been in good form, have home ground, players are well rested (maybe too well rested?) and most think Crows should get over Geelong ... so will the players buy into it too much?
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.45/2.85
\Result | Our smothers. How many were there?! It was like playing against a team of VBs [Drugs Are Bad Mackay?] When we had several smothers in the first few minutes, I knew we were on. It's so often the other way around, Really shows we came to play [cmndstab] The team: were so well drilled. Any pause in play at all and we were able to set up defensively. We were so clinically sharp. I've never been more confident in our defense. All my mates here in Melbourne are in awe at the team ball movement and defensive placement. Say we deserve it. Good. A lot of players finally being noticed / respected here. [Carn The Texan]

Game | GWS 20170907, AO
\Expect | C10 reported Tex as saying "Mindfulness is our secret to September." Great if they can achieve this as that would be a key to "turning up" and playing in the moment.
This is a qualifying final and a chance to set up the club with a great chance at the GF so would think the boys turn up for the game.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.46/2.80
\Result | The stare down was epic and I called it then that they wanted this win and were going to be on, and they didn't disappoint in that 1st half. Strong, hard, contested footy. ... I was actually more nervous at half time than I was before the game. As a Crows fan we've had these games ripped away from us in the past, and when they got the first 3 goals of the 3rd it was like a nightmare unfolding. Then Dougy went back and slotted the set shot whilst blood was pouring into his eyes, bless him. When Crouchy kicked his from 50, I was pretty confident they wouldn't be letting it go. [Crow-eater]

Game | WC 20170827, Domain
\Expect | Very last game of the minor round and top of table, we're resting 3 key players with niggles. Club sounds like it wants to win to carry winning form into the finals campaign or will it turn into a bit of a training run feel to it?
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.72/2.10
\Result | Thought that we started well and as the quarter progressed we were making all the play threatening at the forward 50 but just couldn't penetrate with any system. Our forwards were just not there. [skoobydoo]

Game | Syd 20170818, AO
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.65/2.25
\Expect | This is somewhat a dead rubber for Crows as we have table Top 2 sewn up but Club seems to be going in full tilt with an unchanged side from last week where a few players might have benefited from a rest.
Will the players go in with the respect that Sydney deserves to make a good game of it, or will they going in thinking of the dead rubber and not put up enough effort to avoid getting pummeled?
\Result | Won contested ball, inside 50s and scoring shots. Bad kicking for goal and poor decision making cost us. Hardly anything to stress about. I bet Sydney even though they got the win don't want to face us first week of finals. Should have won the game by 5 goals. [adelaidecrows] Goal kicking was the killer. We missed incredibly gettable shots yet the Swans nailed nearly all of theirs. We had the rub of green for most of the night but didn't make it count. From the halfway mark of the second quarter, we proved we can match it but that first quarter was diabolical and reminiscent of past big games. We turned it around but that was one that definitely got away. [roo2macca] This side does not lie down.
Going into this match all we were really worried about was a replay of the semi final. No one was caring too much about the result - many had us resting our best 3 or 4.
In that first quarter it did look like a replay was on the cards and had that been the case then we really would have something to worry about.
Sydney didn't ease off - they needed the win - but we smashed them for 2 quarters in such a way that made it look like a replay of the semi final with the jumpers reversed. We had them fumbling, rushing, panicked. [Redleg Crow]

Game | Ess 20170812, Etihad
\Expect | Bombers have been up and down, and come into this game without Merrett and Fantasia, who have been good for them lately - while we go in with an unchanged side. We are strong favourites to get over them - how will the players start the game?
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.30/3.55
\Result | Overall felt that we never really got out of second gear. When the Bombers got on a run, we were able to respond and kick clear – which we did twice! Footskills were sharp - at times we were getting the ball into our F50 very easily, and able to switch play and work the ball out of our back 50 without turning it over. [LiquidCrow]

Game | Port 20170806, AO
\Expect | Many think Crows should win this - Crows are top and many not convinced of Port's form even if they're lurking around the Top 4. However, Showdowns nearly always start off as tough games and our boys should have learnt to always turn up for these games.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.50/2.60
\Result | Stunning performance. Obliterated them from start to finish. Only first quarter goal kicking prevented a record-breaking humiliation. ... [Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Game | Coll 20170730, MCG
\Expect | Crows ought to win but we've lost Betts & VCrouch for this game and still without Lever so perhaps explains why bookies have the Pies at a reasonable chance. Think people generally feel confident but knowing that it could be a danger game.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.47/2.70
\Result | I got there a little early and noticed Collingwood's warm-up (about 40 mins before game time) was fairly intense, and they were being really hard at it. I felt our guys were lairising a little and having a bit of fun during our pre-game warm-up. Instantly I knew we were going to be up against it, as they carried this into the first half. We simply weren't switched on at all. The end result may have been that Collingwood used up a lot of petrol tickets pre-game, and then we were able to run over them to some extent in the second half. [Crow_Magnon]

Game | Cats 20170721, AO
\Expect | Our bogey team! And first vs second currently on the table - you would think the boys would not be complacent going into this game.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.3/2.5
\Result | We basically did to them what they've done to us - pound them in to submission early until they shat the bed. That first half was exceptional. Effective tackling the highlight. ... [pjcrows] Physicality. We have finally found something that basically ever Crows side has been lacking.
Loved the flying of the flag, loved the toughness. Loved the players sticking up for themselves and their teammates and getting stuck into Geelongs players at every opportunity. [Vhaluus] Those first 3 quarters actually reminded me of the Bulldogs when they were at the top of their game last year.___ We tackled, and we tackled, and we tackled, and even when it went unrewarded for the 7th time in a row we tackled again even harder. I have never seen anything like it before from us. I don't know what Pyke said to the boys pre game but **** me did it work wonders! The boys soaked up the home atmosphere and went all out. ___ Our aggression and intensity is one thing that has been lacking from this team BIG time. We can play brilliant slingshot footy and slice teams open at times, but when the going gets tough we crumble, every god damn time... ___ But not tonight! That was beyond epic, ... [azza77]

Game | Melb 20170715, Darwin
\Expect | Melbourne have a few important players out and we have a pretty strong looking squad for the game - people generally think we ought to beat them (but they did beat us not many weeks ago).
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.350/3.25
\Result | We managed to turn the momentum twice in that game. That's a good thing. I mean, it's frustrating we gave up the momentum in that way twice to a depleted dees team, but there's at least some character in stamping out the challenge once it arises. [Southerntakeover]

Game | Doggies 20170707, AO
\Expect | Unbelievably, the club has brought Thommo back into the team! and Otten! What are they smoking? Not sure it's worth bothering with this game.

Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.30/3.55
\Result |

Game | Carlton 20170701, MCG
\Expect | .
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: -/-
\Result | That first 5-10 minutes we kicked four goals and because Carlton let us off the chain we were back to playing that sublime brand of attacking football that we saw at the start of the season. ... Once Bolton realised it wasn't working and reverted to the blue print by putting numbers behind the ball the change in momentum was stark and almost immediate. We went from looking like world beaters to the next minute looking like the same inept outfit that has struggled for the past 7 weeks [relapse] Wasn't it great how Bolton changed it up when we were 24-0 in the first. Completely changed the game. I felt like we adapted better by crowding up higher than we did v the Hawks, but a scrap doesn't suit our team. I'm not as negative about this game as many are, because they all cracked in and didn't shut down when challenged. ... it was the type of win we've wanted to see against a committed opponent in a game style where talent can be trumped by desire and persistence. And we did it away. [feenix67]

Game | Hawks 20170622, AO
\Expect | Most people are confident we'll beat the Hawks pretty comfortably (bookies in agreement) as Hawks haven't been travelling that well being 2nd from bottom of ladder. We did beat them earlier in the season when the Hawks hadn't started their downward slide yet and our boys were probably pretty wary of them then. The question is will our boys turn up just as determined and get over them like they should this time?
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.09/7.50
\Result | Pyke needs to own this, going in with that forward line [too tall] was his doing. Our forward pressure was absolutely non existant, Hawthorn waltzed it out like a Sunday picnic, not going one on one when Hawthorn dropped numbers back was also on Pyke, his refusal to change and be flexible is comical. [Dewy006]. We are not a team that takes a lot of i50 marks. But last night it was worse than ever and it spread across the ground. This lack of a basic skill tells me our guys were not mentally switched on to play Hawthorn. Like many of us suppprters the boys took them lightly. ... [Geoffa32] Pyke has continually shown absolutely no willingness to go back to the drawing board and change things up. That's why these losses are so glaring, we can see the issues plain as day, but Pyke refuses to compromise on his game plan and keeps saying it's execution and theres nothing wrong structurally or with Sloane being tagged every game. [MRB37] We didn't have the guts at selection to keep out one of our previously proven best 22 talls or drop Otten in order to maintain the structure that got us unbeaten at the top of the ladder and everyone calling us unbeatable. ... [srv23] ... at every centre bounce, hawthorn had 8 players in the backline behind the square vs our 4 forwards - our half forwards were running in off the back of the square ... [Banshee23]

Bye.

Game | Saints 20170609, AO
\Expect | Despite a caning last game, most people seem we should get over the Saints (and comfortably so according to many) but the Saints have been playing reasonably well recently and could pull a surprise perhaps. It will be interesting to see how our boys start the game off.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.15/5.50
\Result |

Game | Geelong 20170602, SS
\Expect | It's super hard to pick a winner - Crows probably ahead on demonstrated form this year, but Geelong home game and Adelaide historically suck at Kardinia Park.
Most people seem to think this will be an even game and assuming players also think so, predict they should come into this game switched on - or at least come in without underestimating the opposition.
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds: 1.80/2.00
\Result | I thought that we brought intensity in the first Qtr, didn't get overrun like we had in other games. ... [Donkey Magoo] Beating Geelong is all about not letting them win the midfield battle, which means tagging Selwood and roughing up Danger. In part we don't have a side that can hold their own against a midfield such as Geelong (which inturn ****s our game up), and we are prone to stupidity - not tagging Selwood. [Golumless]

Game | Freo 20170527, AO
\Expect | .
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds
\Result |
Besides the win the best thing I saw tonight was our attack on the ball and the player. Our tackling was intense. It was the type of tackling that North brought to the game against us. Our desire to get the ball was massive. ... [BrissyCrow]

Game | Brisbane 20170520, Gabba
\Expect | .
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds
\Result |

Game | Melb 20170513, AO
\Expect | .
Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds
\Result |
... we got beaten by a team that put it all on the line. Every player, in every position. That is hard to beat unless you match them in that attitude, we didn't - we got rolled. [OutofTownCrow]

Spoiler: ---

 

[GreyCrow]

What do I look for? Workrate is number 1. Is the opposition running past a player? Is a player 2nd to the loose ball? Is a player hesitant in a pack?

Sometimes it starts in the race. have seen Tex standing there switched on and know the boys are ready. Other times he is distracted by things.

 

[Red mist]

Work rate. Work hard to get the ball off the opposition. Work hard to keep the ball away from the opposition.

 

[GrommoT]

For completeness...

Out of curiosity, what do you look for that makes you think a team is playing switched on footy?

I've added a list of signs in my killer instinct thread (on my sig.) and interested in what others think.

Big Gazoongas replied:

Attack on the ball and opposition, intensity, being first to contest, opposition chasing us rather than the other way round, proactive run, body language , runnning and creating options, second efforts.

Spoiler: ---

2018 Games

Game	Carlton 20180825, Etihad
Expect	. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.15/5.75
Result	.

Game	North 20180819, AO
Expect	Keath ruled out. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.40/3.05
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	GWS 20180811, Canberra
Expect	. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 3.00/1.40
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Port 20180804, AO
Expect	. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.05/1.80
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Melb 20180728, AO
Expect	. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.75/2.15
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Bris 20180721, Gabba
Expect	. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.60/2.40
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Geel 20180712, AO
Expect	We get Betts back from injury but lose Talia to injury. Sloane's re-signing might give a lift to the boys. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.00/1.85
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Rich 20180706, MCG
Expect	. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 4.15/1.25
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Eagles 20180630, AO
Expect	. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.45/2.85
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Hawks 20180616, MCG
Expect	Up against it still - get some back from injury but also lost some more to injury. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.85/1.45
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Freo 20180610, Optus Oval
Expect	Meh. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.00/1.80
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	GWS 20180603, AO
Expect	Both teams getting some injured players back but still pretty banged up. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.28/3.80
Result	. [ Review thread ] - [hey shorty] [hey shorty] [DJ75]

Game	Melb 20180527, Alice Springs
Expect	We get back 3 players from injury but Dees are at full strength and doing well - good opportunity for Crows to demonstrate their pluckiness when they're up against it. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 2.20/1.70
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	WB 20180518, AO
Expect	With nearly half of the Crows' best 22 out with injury, how is it bookies have Crows so strongly favoured to win? Will be interesting to see. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.26/4.00
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Port 20180512, AO
Expect	Showdowns can be unpredictable however on paper we are better balanced IMO. [TSR] Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.60/2.40
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Carlton 20180505, AO
Expect	Blues losing CCurnow and Marchbank while Crows starting to regain important players, pregame odds even more lopsided than last week. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.04/12.00
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Gold Coast 20180428, AO
Expect	9 to 1 odds of Crows win - what more needs to be said? Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.07/9.00
Result	. [ Review thread ] -

Game	Sydney 20180420, SCG
Expect	Losing Sloane and Betts due to injury but because of their ineffectiveness last round and replacement by two near debutantes, hard to tell how the lineup this week is likely to go. Likely to struggle against the Swans but they have a long injury list as well. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 3.70/1.30
Result	WOW! [ Review thread ] -

Game	Coll 20180413, AO
Expect	Still have a similar lineup to last game but with The Fog coming in and probably should account for the Pies - the bookies certainly think so. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.15/5.50
Result	Good lord, bit of a disaster. Looked like Sloane went in to game hobbled, got double teamed and our midfield got killed (Tex also rumoured to have gone in less than optimal). Our midfield cupboard is pretty bare at the moment thanks to injuries and it's going to be tough for some while. Collingwood- worked harder, tackled more ferociously, and played with speed, confidence and surety. [weneverland] We were fumbly all night, weren't up for a contest, zero composure with the ball and lacked effort. ... [Lawrst] [ Review thread ] -

Game	Saints 20180407, Etihad
Expect	Despite having some key players unavailable, Saints had a rather average game last round and pretty much everyone expect Crows to win. How will players approach this game? Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 3.25/1.35
Result	[ Review thread ] - [Carmo]

Game	Rich 20180329, AO
Expect	GF replay! From last week, Tex and Milera come in, Lynch still injured and Dougy suspended so perhaps a slight improvement on last week's team. Somewhat un-confident about Crows' chances but bookies seem to like Crows for some reason. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.65/2.25
Result	Wow! The bookies were right. Despite losing Mrouch early in Q2, the boys managed to get in front after some flukey goals from Richmond early on and hold on to win convincingly. The Fog continue to pleasantly surprise to show awesome form for a first year draftee, Doedee was brilliant again in his 2nd AFL game and players like CEY, Greenwood, Seedsman stepped up their game, Tex's return to play a big part, JJ defied critics by playing a very powerful and productive game, and generally good game from the rest of the team (despite some awesome brilliance from the Tigers' Dusty). Maybe the boys were fired up being the GF rematch and unwelcome attention in media on their preseason camp in the days leading up to the game but the boys generally didn't let up on Richmond all game. [ Review thread ] - [Carmo] [jumboprince] [DangerSloane] [Shaz2012] [dylan123] [Pea Nut] [whattagun07] [RippaRiley43] [n4sir] [Hodgy] .

Game	Ess 20180323, Etihad
Expect	Well, it's the start of a new season for Crows and not really sure what to expect from this game - feeling is this should be a fast and even game at Etihad. Crows have had massive changes to the team list, have around 7 usually first-22 players unavailable for this game due to injury and preseason JLT form not exactly inspiring. Bombers look like getting their act together this year but they also have quite a few first-22 players not available. Lineups: [ours] [theirs] Odds 1.90/1.90
Result	Bombers win after making too many mistakes in their 1st half kept AFC in the game. AFC managed to claw their way to 20 pts in front at end of 3rd quarter but the bombers steadily put the pressure on and hit the front - Bombers seemed to have wanted it more and as usual, the Umps didn't help our cause. Is it possible Crows relaxed a bit after the 3rd quarter? Hopefully it's more a case of running out of legs in the last as noted by many posters on the gameday thread. Crows did have to bring in Greenwood as a last minute replacement for Gibson (on top of the other key players we had out) so the forward line had many players a bit underdone - debut players like Fog, Murphy and then emergencies like Greenwood. Interestingly, Betts said: [ Review thread ] - [Geoffa32] [Godallblighty] .

 

[mistylake]

What do I look for? Workrate is number 1. Is the opposition running past a player? Is a player 2nd to the loose ball? Is a player hesitant in a pack?

Sometimes it starts in the race. have seen Tex standing there switched on and know the boys are ready. Other times he is distracted by things.

Tex's most switched on game Round 1
2015. Tares the Roos apart.