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Cryptocurrency mega-thread

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Evolved1 said:
Do you have an invalidation point for your bias?
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Yes. Another crash >40% like May 19 and/or the DXY breaking resistance at 93.5 and reaching the mid 90s would definitely be bearish signs for me. I don’t see either happening before new ATHs for BTC and ETH though.
 
BACCS said:
Yes. Another crash >40% like May 19 and/or the DXY breaking resistance at 93.5 and reaching the mid 90s would definitely be bearish signs for me. I don’t see either happening before new ATHs for BTC and ETH though.
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Let's hope you're right. I'm balls deep right now. My invalidation is much tighter though.
 
The Dice Man said:
At an uneducated guess, everyone is holding their breath, and their wallets.
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In my uneducated opinion *China will let Evergrande sweat but won't let them go full Lehman Brothers, as it's contradictory to their party policy to have an implosion on this scale when you're selling economic prosperity. I'd expect them to sweat for a couple more days, then announce that they'll restructure the company to allow the debts to be serviced closer to a LTCM outcome.*

How this affects crypto is entirely unknown, however given my overarching bearish sentiment since March 2021 I'm inclined to say I can't see crypto rebounding any time soon given we're in a bear market, regardless of the Evergrande outcome. The XRP court case will have more of an impact, an in my ever so slightly more educated opinion on this topic I can't see it being the win that crypto companies/investors would like.

*Disclaimer* this really isn't my area of expertise and I'm purely speculating based on my opinion after reading a few other opinions. Fair chance I'm wrong and I suspect I will be.
 
Evolved1 said:
Let's hope you're right. I'm balls deep right now. My invalidation is much tighter though.
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Fair enough mate, we all have our own risk tolerances. The Evergrande news was extremely bearish for all markets, yet the crypto crash was fairly comparable to that when the market was flushed of leverage 2 weeks ago. To me, that’s the sign of a healthy bull market with strong support. If the market was already bearish, then news like yesterday would’ve nuked everything down a lot more I think.

I don’t think the crypto market can hold off another major negative news story like yesterday until BTC and ETH get within 10-20% of their previous ATHs again. Basically, a major nuke from current prices and I definitely turn bearish as it would break a lot of key support levels.
 

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BACCS said:
To me, that’s the sign of a healthy bull market with strong support. If the market was already bearish, then news like yesterday would’ve nuked everything down a lot more I think.
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There's no easy way to say this amigo, but we're officially in a bear market now given XRP, BTC, ETH and the crypto space have all dropped more than 20% from the previous bull market high. You may be using a different metric, but that's the commonly accepted metric that has been in place for at least the last 100 years and the one I've used every step of the way for my crypto investing.

BACCS said:
I don’t think the crypto market can hold off another major negative news story like yesterday until BTC and ETH get within 10-20% of their previous ATHs again. Basically, a major nuke from current prices and I definitely turn bearish as it would break a lot of key support levels.
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Is it healthy or unhealthy? I'm confused. If it's healthy it's flourishing and going from strength to strength, not "another major negative news story" away from a "major nuke on current prices".
 
ash_1050 said:
There's no easy way to say this amigo, but we're officially in a bear market now given XRP, BTC, ETH and the crypto space have all dropped more than 20% from the previous bull market high. You may be using a different metric, but that's the commonly accepted metric that has been in place for at least the last 100 years and the one I've used every step of the way for my crypto investing.



Is it healthy or unhealthy? I'm confused. If it's healthy it's flourishing and going from strength to strength, not "another major negative news story" away from a "major nuke on current prices".
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Was ETH in a bear market in mid April when it dropped 20% prior to its major rally to a new ATH? The 20% metric doesn’t apply to crypto. The gains are bigger than the stock market, but the dips are also bigger. If 20% was the metric of a bear market in crypto, then there are at least 3 or 4 of those every bull cycle. Would you have sold out of ETH when it dropped from 2500 to 2000 in mid April?

It’s healthy in that it is testing key support levels and holding them as support. However, unless it’s able to recover back into the prices from late last week, then a crash from these levels will likely break key support and that’s definitely bearish.
 
BACCS said:
Was ETH in a bear market in mid April when it dropped 20% prior to its major rally to a new ATH? The 20% metric doesn’t apply to crypto. The gains are bigger than the stock market, but the dips are also bigger. If 20% was the metric of a bear market in crypto, then there are at least 3 or 4 of those every bull cycle. Would you have sold out of ETH when it dropped from 2500 to 2000 in mid April?

It’s healthy in that it is testing key support levels and holding them as support. However, unless it’s able to recover back into the prices from late last week, then a crash from these levels will likely break key support and that’s definitely bearish.
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What's your metric for a bull/bear market then if you're rejecting the one used by every other financial market out there other than crypto?
 
ash_1050 said:
There's no easy way to say this amigo, but we're officially in a bear market now given XRP, BTC, ETH and the crypto space have all dropped more than 20% from the previous bull market high. You may be using a different metric, but that's the commonly accepted metric that has been in place for at least the last 100 years and the one I've used every step of the way for my crypto investing.

Is it healthy or unhealthy? I'm confused. If it's healthy it's flourishing and going from strength to strength, not "another major negative news story" away from a "major nuke on current prices".
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I disagree that 20% drops are indicative of bear markets in crypto. 30-40% corrections happen frequently during crypto bull markets.

A lower macro high, like we have now (65k v 53k) is a stronger indicator to me. My macro bearish bias can be invalidated with a daily close above 53k.
 
ash_1050 said:
What's your metric for a bull/bear market then if you're rejecting the one used by every other financial market out there other than crypto?
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Any crash greater than 40% like in May. That led to 3 months of bearish price action as it lost the key bull market support levels and needed time to gain strength again ie accumulation.
 
Evolved1 said:
I disagree that 20% drops are indicative of bear markets in crypto. 30-40% corrections happen frequently during crypto bull markets.

A lower macro high, like we have now (65k v 53k) is a stronger indicator to me. My macro bearish bias can be invalidated with a daily close above 53k.
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Awesome, appreciate the response and hypothesis. So if your metric is comparing the ATH ($63k) to the cyclical high ($53k) how would you know you're in a bear market if $65k was both the most recent high and the ATH? Likewise how would you know if you're out of a bear market and when you'd hit a macro bottom?
 
ash_1050 said:
Awesome, appreciate the response and hypothesis. So if your metric is comparing the ATH ($63k) to the cyclical high ($53k) how would you know you're in a bear market if $65k was both the most recent high and the ATH? Likewise how would you know if you're out of a bear market and when you'd hit a macro bottom?
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A lower macro high is the most accurate means of recognising a bear cycle after a bubble formation top.

In the market psychology chart, you see a return to normal (or complacency shoulder). The easiest way to sell close to a top is waiting for a complacency shoulder to form after a big dump. That's why I wait for a bounce rather than panic sell in the midst of a big dump (if I failed to sell the top).

Bear markets resolve themselves through price or time. A bear market needs to cause considerable pain to many through price, time, or both. Resolution of a bear market typically involves long periods of sideways price action or capitulation. A high volume capitulation candle is indicative of a trend reversal. Take a look at the volume scooped up in March 2020.

I look to a mix of technical indicators and market psychology. Countertrading the majority generally works for me. If I see normies cracking the shits and selling, I buy. There are other indicators of course, but those are mine.
 
Interesting. I feel like this morning's lows completed the washout of weak longs and might have trapped some bears. If BTC and ETH remain strong by the time we wake up tomorrow then I'll be even more convinced. I just took some margin longs in BTC and ETH. Stops at the morning's lows.

Still holding spot positions in ETH, FTM, Luna and lots of SOL
 
LongBombFromOutside50 said:
Interesting. I feel like this morning's lows completed the washout of weak longs and might have trapped some bears. If BTC and ETH remain strong by the time we wake up tomorrow then I'll be even more convinced. I just took some margin longs in BTC and ETH. Stops at the morning's lows.

Still holding spot positions in ETH, FTM, Luna and lots of SOL
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Stopped out already. That aged well... Will look to re-enter around $44k


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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I don't think we have hit the bottom of this drop yet, i do think this could be brutal.
But it will rebound, it always does. Selling now is just suicide.
I'll buy more ADA if it gets down to $1.50 US, as i still think it gets up to $8-$10 sometime next year.
 
Pancakes said:
I don't think we have hit the bottom of this drop yet, i do think this could be brutal.
But it will rebound, it always does. Selling now is just suicide.
I'll buy more ADA if it gets down to $1.50 US, as i still think it gets up to $8-$10 sometime next year.
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as long as you have some money to buy in then dips are great. Ive got some SOL and XRP at higher prices at the moment but not an issue as they will bounce back at some point.

Waiting for ETH to drop again and then might buy in. This time ill keep it longer as last time i got out of it too early.
 
Strong support around 38000 and 38700. I think that's our low (if we get there).

Looking for 44k to hold as support. Anything in between is choppy nonsense.
 

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Pancakes said:
Probably.

Looks like Evergrande is being bailed out for now, so markets should bounce back over the next week.
I'll put an order in for ADA and ETH now and see how we go.
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But looks like foreign bond holders might eat shit. Could be bad for Europe/US.
 
The Dice Man said:
But looks like foreign bond holders might eat sh*t. Could be bad for Europe/US.
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Interesting point you raised there, as yesterday (and today so far) the markets appeared to recover ok during the Asian trading hours, but then plummeted again during the Europe/US trading hours.
 
BACCS said:
Interesting point you raised there, as yesterday (and today so far) the markets appeared to recover ok during the Asian trading hours, but then plummeted again during the Europe/US trading hours.
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US looked nervous yesterday.

BACCS said:
Where did you see the news about a potential bail out?
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It's all over twitter. I've been awake 20 minutes so still catching up, but looks like they will bail out CCP investors but leave foreigners high and dry.
 

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