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Cryptocurrency mega-thread

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Cats2022 said:
The last 12 months bitcoin with the big golden maccas arches play out no one predicted that.
The problem with say you and me predict it to go lower wouldn’t surprise me they pump it back up to say haha gotcha. By the time you fomo back in be 15% plus percent up.
Personally I won’t fomo unless it’s clear as day. Right now we in the washing machine of sh*t
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Only have to look at the Heikin Ashi candles on the weekly to understand that the downtrend is still going and any sign of a reversal doesn't appear close. I'm not sure we see any new ATHs for the likes of BTC or ETH this year, but I can certainly see a BTC 50k and ETH 4k again at some point.
 


This is quite worrying and was put in the bill by a senator that previously worked for Goldman Sachs, colour me shocked
 
BACCS said:
Only have to look at the Heikin Ashi candles on the weekly to understand that the downtrend is still going and any sign of a reversal doesn't appear close. I'm not sure we see any new ATHs for the likes of BTC or ETH this year, but I can certainly see a BTC 50k and ETH 4k again at some point.
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I think not. Don’t see it. Hope I’m wrong. It’s still in a down trend until it’s not. Eth 1400 to 90. Last cycle. Bitcoin 20k to 3500k. I’m sure when it came down people would not have thought this would happen.
Bitcoin has had a double top. For me it’s not casually hitting 50k in 2022 so easy. I hope it does but double top makes me say surely it won’t be a triple top or close to it.
 
Cats2022 said:
I think not. Don’t see it. Hope I’m wrong. It’s still in a down trend until it’s not. Eth 1400 to 90. Last cycle. Bitcoin 20k to 3500k. I’m sure when it came down people would not have thought this would happen.
Bitcoin has had a double top. For me it’s not casually hitting 50k in 2022 so easy. I hope it does but double top makes me say surely it won’t be a triple top or close to it.
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Those numbers for BTC and ETH are a bit of a fallacy, given that they were triggered by the pandemic and were very short lived. BTC and ETH both sat in this current range for May-July last year and broke out from there and retested in September; many were calling low 20s for BTC and low 1000s for ETH. 50k is still 30% down from the ATH, it's hardly the huge and unattainable number it once was. The biggest jump will be flipping 40k into support again.

Any number can and will be hit depending on the narrative coming out of the US this year, but they've been fairly clear of their hawkish stance for 2022 thus far and so the worst is already getting priced in. Can ETH go to 1700-1800 and BTC 27-29k again? Sure, they probably will at some point, but these levels were eaten for breakfast by long term holders last year and nothing on-chain suggests this year would be any different, regardless of the macro situation. If I'm playing probabilities, I think there is more chance of a 50k BTC for a short period this year than there is of any significant time below 30k.

Pentoshi nails the levels well in this below Tweet:

 

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In breaking news BTC may go either up or down.


A hefty debate is under way in the crypto space about whether Bitcoin is mired in a drawn-out bear market.
Proponents of the notoriously volatile token say a bounce could be around the corner after it shed half its value from an all-time high in November. But a few industry metrics suggest a crypto winter is already here, according to market-intelligence firm Glassnode.

“A prolonged bear market is in play,” analysts at the firm wrote in a new report. “With the bulls now firmly on the back-foot, such a heavy drawdown is likely to change investor perceptions and sentiment at a macro scale.”
Glassnode cites a few indicators to back up its assertion.

First, something called the net unrealised profit/loss (or NUPL) metric, which shows the overall market profitability as a proportion of market capitalisation. Standing at 0.325, it suggests nearly a third of Bitcoin’s market value is held as an unrealised profit, and typically such low profitability is seen in the early-to-mid phase of a bear market.

Second is a measure known as the MVRV ratio, which is calculated as market cap divided by realised cap. It’s a useful tool for identifying periods of high and poor investor profitability, according to Glassnode. Going by its current reading, “the bulls either need to step up in a big way, else the probabilities favour the bears,” the note says.
And third, an on-chain tool named the realised-to-liveliness ratio (or RTLR) - something of a hodler-fair-value model - which shows the market is below the RTLR price of $US39,200 but above the realised price of $US24,200, a development also typically observed during early-to-mid stages of bear markets.
Noelle Acheson, head of market insights at Genesis Global Trading, said it’s hard to use any one indicator to definitively call a bear market. NUPL measures may be going down but “it’s too soon to tell if that means we are heading into a bear market,” she said. Likewise, MVRV is signalling market weakness, but it’s difficult to use that as an argument for proving we’re in the midst of a prolonged downturn, she said.
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But if we are, it doesn’t look good for short-term holders, currently in possession of approximately 18.3 per cent of the coin supply, excluding tokens held by exchanges. As of this week, almost all of their supply is underwater, which could put further pressure on prices.
“This yet again creates a psychological barrier whereby the coins that are already the most likely to be spent and sold, are now also holding an unrealised loss, which further increases the chances of a sale,” Glassnode analysts wrote.
Memories of the last crypto winter - a term that refers to a sharp slump - are renewing fears a repeat is currently playing out. Back then, Bitcoin’s price plunged by more than 80 per cent to as low as $US3,100 in 2018, and it took more than a year for it to reach another high in December 2020.

More recently, Bitcoin has dipped as low as $US33,000 from almost $US69,000 in less than three months amid a broader selloff in risk assets on growing conviction the Federal Reserve will ratchet back its ultra-accommodative policy settings.

The plunge has hit all corners of the crypto ecosystem, from Bitcoin and memecoins to publicly listed crypto exchanges, with more than $US1 trillion in market value erased from the market.

But for context on how severe past downdrafts have been, consider this: The current Bitcoin selloff is “downright modest” when compared to the 90 per cent drops in value from earlier in its history, according to Bespoke Investment Group. A 90 per cent peak-trough drop in the coin’s price would take it down to around $US7,000.
 
The Dice Man said:
I think I'm over invested, by a lot.

View attachment 1317132
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To The Moon Bitcoin GIF by :::Crypto Memes:::
 
BACCS said:
To The Moon Bitcoin GIF by :::Crypto Memes:::
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I'm holding out for a Lada Niva. My wife's uncle actually has one of these in his country home in the Averyon. It's a pretty fun car to drive(a boat on wheels) but the heater is shit so I dunno how those Russians get around in winter.
 

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Ghost Patrol said:
Did Vitalik pay him for the shill?
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No point surely.. I remember bitboy saying he got offered 1 million to shill a coin but knocked it back. Must had had another big $$$ contract with someone else and signed something. A guy like him wouldn’t be knocking back a mill surely.
 

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The Dice Man said:
I don't remember seeing much defi talk in here, anyone have any good defi plays to look into? I'm looking at Beets (Beethoven), only 25M MC and have a good range of staking and LP pairings offering good returns. I'm up to my chest in FTM as it is so wouldn't mind some others to look into.
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I still have a soft spot for UMA.
 
BACCS said:


This is quite worrying and was put in the bill by a senator that previously worked for Goldman Sachs, colour me shocked
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Hopefully the midterms smash the Democraps and the more reasonable to crypto Republicans gain back enough power to at least give it a fairer and more considered approach or find someone who will at least take up the cause.
 
Bostonian said:
Hopefully the midterms smash the Democraps and the more reasonable to crypto Republicans gain back enough power to at least give it a fairer and more considered approach or find someone who will at least take up the cause.
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Did you complain about republicans in 2017/18?

Was democrat policy responsible for ATH 2021?
 
Ghost Patrol said:
Did you complain about republicans in 2017/18?

Was democrat policy responsible for ATH 2021?
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There's an incredible sense of irony having just read his comments about Government and how upset he is about being fined for not voting in Federal elections, then reading his thoughts on Republicans v Democrats. Explains a lot.
 
owen87 said:
There's an incredible sense of irony having just read his comments about Government and how upset he is about being fined for not voting in Federal elections, then reading his thoughts on Republicans v Democrats. Explains a lot.
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There's no irony at all.

Saying the small Government Party is less of an enemy to crypto in 2022 than the big Government alternative has sweet FA to do with our system.

Crypto is a Libertarian creation, it's whole spirit was borne from people wanting to decentralise systems that ****wits like the Democraps adore.
 

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