Cryptocurrency mega-thread

[Seeds]

You're missing a key point, and that is that markets are always forward looking. Hence when the market expects the US dollar to lose its purchasing power (from an expectation that the fed will stimulate either by QE or lowering rates), BTC will increase in value.

To prove my point, keep an eye out for the next CPI print. If it's lower than expected, BTC will pump (due to a belief that the fed will be more likely to stimulate sooner). If higher than expected, BTC will dump (due to a belief that the fed will tighten more than is expected).

The market only expected the us dollar to start losing its purchasing power when it actually started doing it. the inflation surge has been a surprise. It was not expected. No one was expecting the inflation surge 2 years ago. Hell i was one of the few predicting it when the pandemic began. most people back then thought this was going to be another deflationary crisis like the GFC. Most of the market took a year to start realising inflation was surging. Infact up until 6 months ago most of the market reports still didnt believe inflation was taking off beyond a couple of one off supply shocks.

and if you knew about wage spirals you would know that once inflation begins the markets expect more inflation not less. The idea that bitcoin is now crashing because the markets suddenly expect less inflation then they did before inflation took off is absurd.

And even if your point was true (its not). It wouldnt explain a 70 percent fall in crypto. crypto would be falling by the expected cumulative slow down in the expected future inflation rate which would be many many fold smaller.

 

[Evolved1]

Mm not really.
The USD was losing value from March 2020 - late 2021 due to the reckless QE and money printing from the Fed (Simplistically: increase in supply = decrease in value). During that time is when BTC almost did a 25x and went from $3.5k to $69k.
Right now, the USD is gaining strength as the Fed are tightening and raising rates. And, the value of BTC vs USD is falling.

It sucks to see so many people who got in late lose money. Bear markets will create some serious resiliency in people.

Anyway to answer Chief 's question of why BTC will return back to all time highs, here is my view:

• Fed will crank rates to cool inflation until inflation is under control.
• This will create a global recession. Stock and crypto will plummet (already happened). Property is next.
• So the Fed will need to stimulate again to give the economy the drug it needs.
• This (coincidentally) should time well with the next BTC halving.
• And... BOOM! Bull market back on. Permabulls will then start to reappear again (at least the ones who survived this bear market).

That's how I see it too. I think 11-14k is a reasonable bottom. If we lose 11k on a higher timeframe, we're in trouble and previous lows (3-5k) are back on the table. If we go under 7k, I'll start selling some assets in readiness prior to the next halving.

The US fed has already stated that 2024 is when they expect to start reducing rates, so all engines will be firing for the next bull. Perfect timing really.

 

[Evolved1]

Yet nothing I said in that post is untrue.

The market disagrees with you. Elon Musk disagrees with you.

Why come and tell us the same information only after crypto has dumped? Be brave and post it after a big pump.

 

[WaywardSonSon]

Mm not really.
The USD was losing value from March 2020 - late 2021 due to the reckless QE and money printing from the Fed (Simplistically: increase in supply = decrease in value). During that time is when BTC almost did a 25x and went from $3.5k to $69k.
Right now, the USD is gaining strength as the Fed are tightening and raising rates. And, the value of BTC vs USD is falling.

It sucks to see so many people who got in late lose money. Bear markets will create some serious resiliency in people.

Anyway to answer Chief 's question of why BTC will return back to all time highs, here is my view:

• Fed will crank rates to cool inflation until inflation is under control.
• This will create a global recession. Stock and crypto will plummet (already happened). Property is next.
• So the Fed will need to stimulate again to give the economy the drug it needs.
• This (coincidentally) should time well with the next BTC halving.
• And... BOOM! Bull market back on. Permabulls will then start to reappear again (at least the ones who survived this bear market).

I got into Bitcoin VERY late (early April this year) but that could prove to be a blessing, as its buy price is amazing right now. Plus, I've only invested $2500 so far.

 

[FRUMPY]

If my Aunt had balls, she'd be my Uncle.

Not these days, still be your aunt [emoji1787]

Sent from my CPH2005 using Tapatalk

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

I got into Bitcoin VERY late (early April this year) but that could prove to be a blessing, as its buy price is amazing right now. Plus, I've only invested $2500 so far.

Early April wasn't the worst time to get in. The price then was only around a ~2x from here. In the crypto world that's nothing

 

[The Dice Man]

Early April wasn't the worst time to get in. The price then was only around a ~2x from here. In the crypto world that's nothing

I'm completely rekt, for now, but now I also see the reason for holding BTC or even ETH. Their drops are nowhere near the scale of the more high risk/high reward tokens. I'm balls deep in FTM and assorted eco tokens and FTM from 3.50 to 20c is nothing like the BTC drop.

Ima just gotta hodl and see if my picks make it through to the next cycle.

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

The market only expected the us dollar to start losing its purchasing power when it actually started doing it. the inflation surge has been a surprise. It was not expected. No one was expecting the inflation surge 2 years ago. Hell i was one of the few predicting it when the pandemic began. most people back then thought this was going to be another deflationary crisis like the GFC. Most of the market took a year to start realising inflation was surging. Infact up until 6 months ago most of the market reports still didnt believe inflation was taking off beyond a couple of one off supply shocks.

and if you knew about wage spirals you would know that once inflation begins the markets expect more inflation not less. The idea that bitcoin is now crashing because the markets suddenly expect less inflation then they did before inflation took off is absurd.

And even if your point was true (its not). It wouldnt explain a 70 percent fall in crypto. crypto would be falling by the expected cumulative slow down in the expected future inflation rate which would be many many fold smaller.

Say what?

The Fed announced a reckless monetary stimulus plan back in early 2020 when global growth was so low due to lockdowns and the pandemic. Anyone with a basic knowledge of economics would know that monetary stimulus means a depreciating USD, and the end result would likely be entrenched inflation which would then need to be cooled by tightening. Again, from early 2020 to the peak in late 2021, BTC almost did a 25x.

Part of the reason why Bitcoin is crashing (not the only reason) is because inflation is even higher than was anticipated, which means the Fed tightening will be even stronger than was anticipated, which means a stronger USD. Again, the market is forward looking

Crypto is an asset class far out on the risk spectrum (as are tech stocks). If the Dow falls 25%, crypto and tech stocks will fall 70% (FYI paypal shares have fallen ~77% from its highs, Facebook shares have fallen ~60%)

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

I'm completely rekt, for now, but now I also see the reason for holding BTC or even ETH. Their drops are nowhere near the scale of the more high risk/high reward tokens. I'm balls deep in FTM and assorted eco tokens and FTM from 3.50 to 20c is nothing like the BTC drop.

Ima just gotta hodl and see if my picks make it through to the next cycle.

Sorry to hear that mate. Yeah, can't do much right now other than grind your teeth and hold through to the next bull run.

 

[Evolved1]

I'm completely rekt, for now, but now I also see the reason for holding BTC or even ETH. Their drops are nowhere near the scale of the more high risk/high reward tokens. I'm balls deep in FTM and assorted eco tokens and FTM from 3.50 to 20c is nothing like the BTC drop.

Ima just gotta hodl and see if my picks make it through to the next cycle.

Altcoins aren't a good long term hold, though they're often marketed as the solution to whatever problems BTC and ETH have. It usually takes people one full cycle to realise how the system works, which is BTC-->ETH-->ALTS-->DUMP, and alts dump much harder.

Alts usually have once cycle, so your best bet is to look for the new AVAX/SOL/LUNA for big gains.

I think BTC will probably settle on a lower high compared to last cycle, then drift around until 2024. There's usually a dump just prior to the halving too, so save some cash to buy big if that happens.

 

[Scotland]

Ah the guy that claimed he a long time 'winning' record punting on horses.

His crypto horse ended up at the glue factory.

 

[The Dice Man]

Sorry to hear that mate. Yeah, can't do much right now other than grind your teeth and hold through to the next bull run.

It's ok, I knew what I was in for but failed at certain points that I'd read plenty about people doing on previous cycles.

Altcoins aren't a good long term hold, though they're often marketed as the solution to whatever problems BTC and ETH have. It usually takes people one full cycle to realise how the system works, which is BTC-->ETH-->ALTS-->DUMP, and alts dump much harder.

Alts usually have once cycle, so your best bet is to look for the new AVAX/SOL/LUNA for big gains.

I think BTC will probably settle on a lower high compared to last cycle, then drift around until 2024. There's usually a dump just prior to the halving too, so save some cash to buy big if that happens.

Yep, again, I'd read and read people speaking the same but I failed to really heed the advice. As a newbie, maybe you have to live through it to really 'get it'.

BACCS has been quiet lately too, but I'm thinking he was looking long term and not worried about the short term. MC is at .70c.. I bought some of that at $20 and around $2 IIRC.

 

[Evolved1]

 

[Evolved1]

It's ok, I knew what I was in for but failed at certain points that I'd read plenty about people doing on previous cycles.

Yep, again, I'd read and read people speaking the same but I failed to really heed the advice. As a newbie, maybe you have to live through it to really 'get it'.

BACCS has been quiet lately too, but I'm thinking he was looking long term and not worried about the short term. MC is at .70c.. I bought some of that at $20 and around $2 IIRC.

Yeah I think that's accurate. I did similar last cycle and bought a bunch of shitcoins, was up $400k USD at peak then came out break even.

There's no reason to become a BTC maxi though, just learn the cycles and try to look for signs when the music is about to stop.

The main things I did better this time around is take profit on the way up and move in and out of shitcoins at opportune times. The only shitcoin I held right through is down nearly 95% lol.

 

[Evolved1]

BAACS hasn't posted since May 25 and I can't even link his username. I hope he's doing ok.

 

[The Dice Man]

BAACS hasn't posted since May 25 and I can't even link his username. I hope he's doing ok.

Strange. Hope he's alright too.

 

[Seeds]

That's how I see it too. I think 11-14k is a reasonable bottom. If we lose 11k on a higher timeframe, we're in trouble and previous lows (3-5k) are back on the table. If we go under 7k, I'll start selling some assets in readiness prior to the next halving.

The US fed has already stated that 2024 is when they expect to start reducing rates, so all engines will be firing for the next bull. Perfect timing really.

The us fed previously said they wouldnt even start increasing rates to 2024. And yet here we are. they arent reliable forecasters.

 

[Seeds]

this ignores the fact stocks pay dividends while crypto pays nothing. The value of stocks is not just the equity value. In fact for many stocks dividends is the main game.

Good stocks are something you hold forever and reap the ongoing dividends. As you have stated yourself, your end game for crypto is to get out. What happens if that is the end game for most crypto advocates?

 

[Bostonian]

The best background to have to be playing on the Crypto market is be a greyhound punter.

If you're used to seeing your investment wrecked after 3 seconds crypto is a breeze.

 

[Bostonian]

this ignores the fact stocks pay dividends while crypto pays nothing. The value of stocks is not just the equity value. In fact for many stocks dividends is the main game.

Good stocks are something you hold forever and reap the ongoing dividends. As you have stated yourself, your end game for crypto is to get out. What happens if that is the end game for most crypto advocates?

Incorrect.

Some cryto projects do provide a crypto version of dividends.

Example.

I am staking 1000 of one crypto projects native token. Thus far just for doing that I have earned a further 25 of that coin for doing nothing.

I can either choose to hold those free coins or a can sell to provide myself with a dividend.

Thus far my staking dividends match a friend who plays the stock market and his dividends.

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

this ignores the fact stocks pay dividends while crypto pays nothing. The value of stocks is not just the equity value. In fact for many stocks dividends is the main game.

Good stocks are something you hold forever and reap the ongoing dividends. As you have stated yourself, your end game for crypto is to get out. What happens if that is the end game for most crypto advocates?

Crypto pays staking rewards. Stake your coin and you’ll earn an APY, which is similar to a dividend.

Only difference is that the APY cannot be changed, whereas management of a company can choose to reduce a dividend payout if they like.

Also, look at the bitcoin chart and zoom out. No need to get out if you bought years ago. You’d be sitting very comfortable right now.

EDIT: Bostonian beat me to it..

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[burge13]

BAACS hasn't posted since May 25 and I can't even link his username. I hope he's doing ok.

Was talking about going full time crypto and ignored perfectly reasonably warnings about its difficulty citing everyone is a genius in a bull market. I suspect this has hit him like a truck but hopefully all is well

 

[BACCS]

BAACS hasn't posted since May 25 and I can't even link his username. I hope he's doing ok.

I am fine everyone, but I do appreciate your well wishes! Didn’t take a break from here because of crypto, I just found the Crows board too toxic (same arguments back and forth infiltrating most threads) and needed to remove the temptation to visit there. I’ve only reactivated so I can reassure you all that I’m ok.

I am staking MC still (my cost basis is fast approaching the current price) and have never been more bullish on the future of Merit Circle. Version 2 of staking will be released over the coming months, with the ETH/MC LP replaced with USDC/MC and staking rewards to come from a combination of buybacks and superfluous treasury tokens (exact details still be voted on, but APR will likely still be very juicy!). With the mechanisms in place for token buybacks, burning etc it is likely the supply will never exceed 300-400M.

The new NFT marketplace Sphere will be released soon and have direct benefits for MC holders, while the DAO recently successfully navigated through a landmark decision to remove a seed investor early and payout their tokens. The Edenhorde trading card game is well under development and the project was finally given the blue tick on Opensea. The bear market also allows the treasury to find higher potential ROI opportunities for the next bull cycle.

I am in a more enjoyable role in my career, looking at family homes with my fiancé and I’m getting married later this year, so I am very happy! I know the market will recover eventually over the next 12-18 months once the economic climate is less murky. Just requires some patience! Staking certainly helps if you are able as it reduces your cost basis without needing to put up any further capital, just need to find project teams that you believe in and trust they’re still building, even in a bear market.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Really?

How was it that the Government told my friends family we're taking 30 acres of land off you, it'll destroy your 114 year old business and we will pay you pennies on what the land is actually worth and did we mention your livelihood is now gone?

Is that what you mean by Government protection?

And how about when you bust your gut working only for the Government to steal a bunch of it off you before it even gets to your account. Forgot about that?

You're seriously suggesting taxation is the government stealing your money?? Just Wow...

 

[Bostonian]

You're seriously suggesting taxation is the government stealing your money?? Just Wow...

It is.

What else is taking someone's money/possessions off them without their permission?