Player Watch Darcy Fogarty

How many goals will Darcy Fogarty kick in 2023?

  • Total voters
    129
  • Poll closed .

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AFC979810 said:
Because he was a #1 draft pick and the last time he played a game was barely 21 years old. Their output is pretty similar though.



FOG also has the advantage of consistency. He has played 40 of the last 42 possible games for the Crows. Himmelberg has played 41 games across the past 6 seasons for us.

Percentages are great, but look at the numbers over the past 22 games:

Fog 25 goals
Berg 22 goals

Fogs Marks inside 50 last 22 games - 31
Himmelbergs Marks Inside 50 last 22 games - 19

Fogs Tackles inside 50 - 32
Bergs Tackles inside 50 - 7
*not sure how a key forward tackling inside 50 is a good thing

Fogs Score Involvements - 105
Bergs Score Involvements - 85

You really telling me that if we had to play Himmelberg over FOG's for the past 22 games and lost the 13 marks inside 50, 3 more goals and 20 score involvements it would have had a negative affect on our team? (not to mention Himmelberg gives away less free kicks and helps in the ruck with hitouts).

Just to clarify - I don't want himmelberg in the side.
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Honestly, this is just a plain weird take after a good win. You literally showed stats that Fog has played better than Berg in their recent respective 22 games, and you want Berg to replace Fog? 🤪

I also think you’re downplaying the craft of forward involvements, as that is the primary role of a forward, not just simply the goals they kick.
 
George Kramer said:
Fog should be doing better but he has played better footy than Murphy ever will and plays in a lot harder position than what Murphy.

He also was crucial in setting up that Cook goal, which would we know Murphy would have sprayed.

I’m also more tolerant of players that I see have the ability to be critical to our teams success going forward.

I find it weird you’re devoting so much energy into bagging him the last 12 months and yet you defend average mediocre players in Mackay, it’s a rather odd sense of priorities.
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Nah, Murphy has delivered those difficult inside 50 kicks and kicked very difficult goals before but miss a lot a lot a lot more easy inside 50 kicks and very easy goals.
 
AFC979810 said:
FOG also has the advantage of consistency. He has played 40 of the last 42 possible games for the Crows. Himmelberg has played 41 games across the past 6 seasons for us.

Percentages are great, but look at the numbers over the past 22 games:

Fog 25 goals
Berg 22 goals

Fogs Marks inside 50 last 22 games - 31
Himmelbergs Marks Inside 50 last 22 games - 19

Fogs Tackles inside 50 - 32
Bergs Tackles inside 50 - 7
*not sure how a key forward tackling inside 50 is a good thing

Fogs Score Involvements - 105
Bergs Score Involvements - 85

You really telling me that if we had to play Himmelberg over FOG's for the past 22 games and lost the 13 marks inside 50, 3 more goals and 20 score involvements it would have had a negative affect on our team? (not to mention Himmelberg gives away less free kicks and helps in the ruck with hitouts).

Just to clarify - I don't want himmelberg in the side.
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Himmelberg has had the advantage of having players like Fogarty in the side to take away the better defenders.

Fogarty has exceeded Himmelberg's output while playing on stronger defenders.

Key forwards tackling inside 50 is an excellent thing, not sure why you would downplay that. Especially when we're talking about Fogarty getting nearly 5x as many!
 

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cmndstab said:
Himmelberg has had the advantage of having players like Fogarty in the side to take away the better defenders.

Fogarty has exceeded Himmelberg's output while playing on stronger defenders.
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Look - FOG is the better option and his output is better, but its not by much. I stand by the fact that our side would be no better or no worse if we had Himmelberg in the side these past 22 games.


cmndstab said:
Key forwards tackling inside 50 is an excellent thing, not sure why you would downplay that. Especially when we're talking about Fogarty getting nearly 5x as many!
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Fog isnt in the side to be laying tackles. You want your key forwards kicking goals.

Fogs end to the season 22 and first 4 games of 2023 were very very good.

In those 8 games he kicked 26 goals, 10 behinds, had 54 marks and laid only 10 tackles. He also only gave away 5 free kicks during those 8 games.

In the next 22 games he has kicked 25 goals, 22 behinds for 89 marks. He laid 47 tackles and gave away 28 free kicks.

When FOG is at his best - he aint tackling. He is marking the ball and kicking goals. When he is mentally off - he struggles to get separation and plays from behind.
 
AFC979810 said:
Fog isnt in the side to be laying tackles. You want your key forwards kicking goals.
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This is really as far as your argument is going, not sure that there's much value in the rest of the statistical analysis. In what seems like a slump statistically he's the better player.

But the real point about the impact is that he's he's not kicking enough goals. Which is true.
 
You can divide Fogarty's career (to date) into 3 distinct segments - which I will call "Bad Old" Fog, "Good" Fog, and "Bad New" Fog.

Bad Old Fog (R1 2018 - R10 2022)
The Bad Old Fog days were defined by inconsistency, not just from game to game, but quarter to quarter. Fog would often play brilliant cameos, lasting one quarter, but being largely invisible for the rest of the game. To be fair, the selectors didn't pick him regularly during this period - but his form didn't exactly demand regular selection either. In this period he played 46 games, averaging 8.1 disposals and 1.1 goals per game, with a best return of 5 goals (and another 4 games where he kicked bags of 3).

The most notable, arguably defining, characteristic of this period was his accuracy in front of goal - he kicked a total of 52.20 during this period (72.2% accuracy), and was the 3rd most accurate goal scorer in AFL/VFL history at the time of his 50th goal.

His potential during this period was obvious. We saw during those all-too-brief cameo performances just how good he could be. The problem was how to unlock the potential. The coaches tried playing him in the midfield and even in defence (in the SANFL) to try and coach him into becoming more involved in the game for longer. Nothing seemed to work, until it did, resulting in the Good Fog era...

Good Fog (R11 2022 - R6 2023)
During the 2022 pre-season Fog worked with Burgess to improve his fitness. He also worked with an unnamed sports psychologist, who helped him with his confidence. The results of the work done, on both mind & body, were remarkable.

In 16 games he kicked 44.15, at 74.5% accuracy, averaging 2.75 goals and 11.4 disposals per game. Finally, we saw the Fog that we'd been waiting for since the excitement of his initial drafting. Fog dominated, and Crows fans (including myself) couldn't have been happier to see his career blossoming.

This was the Fog playing at his full potential, and we all thought he had the world at his feet - and that he was finally stepping up, ready to become Walker's successor as the leader of our forward line.

Sadly, it wasn't to last...

Bad New Fog (R7 2023 - present)
The current period stands at 22 games, and counting. In this period he's gone back to averaging 1.1 goals per game, though his disposal numbers have improved (relative to the Bad Old days) to 10.5 per game. Worst, his goal kicking accuracy has deserted him - he's gone from 72% (Bad Old) and 74% (Good) to just 52%.

Unlike the Bad Old Fog days, he's playing games more consistently - the cameo performances are now gone, replaced by a more even performance across the duration of whole games, and from one game to the next. He seems to be playing further up the ground, winning more disposals on the wings than inside the F50, which may partly account for the reduction in his goal scoring.

The reality is though, that he's not offering enough further up the ground to counter the lack of goal scoring - and his reduced accuracy means that he's no longer such a dangerous target when he does get the ball inside scoring range.

As a forward, the Bad New Fog is struggling to win his own ball. Yes, delivery into our forward line was bloody awful in the first 4 games, but Fog hasn't helped his own cause either. Don't forget that the Bad New Fog era also spans the back half of 2023, when Adelaide was the highest scoring team in the competition, yet Fog was still struggling to make an impact. Delivery was not a problem at that time.

As AFC979810 has pointed out, his performances in this period are little different to those of Himmelberg, who has spent the last 12 months playing in the SANFL.

The big question is this - how do we get the Bad New Fog to revert to the form he showed in the Good Fog days? Maybe it's a simple as spending more time with the shrink. I don't know. What I do know is that the Good Fog era showed us what he's capable of, and we need to be seeing more of that (and less of the Bad New Fog).

Why Persist?
As I see it, there are 2 main reasons - hope, and a lack of alternative options.

The Good Fog era showed us exactly what he's capable of, when everything clicks. Nothing Himmelberg has ever done, or is ever likely to do, comes close to matching Fog's performances during this period. One of the main reasons for his ongoing selection is the hope that he will find that form again. However, he's now well into his 8th season, and there's only so long that a club can keep selecting a player based solely on potential - at some point the player's actual (disappointing) level of performance has to become the determining factor.

If we're to drop the Bad New Fog, then we need to replace him with someone who will perform better - and right now, no such player exists on our team list. Himmelberg is no better than the Bad New Fog, and not even in the same postcode as Good Fog. Similarly, Burgess & Gollant are no improvement, though both have an additional string to their bow as ruck support for ROB. That leaves Curtin as a longer-term option, but the coaches seem determined to play him in defence.

Fogarty's position will remain secure until the club can secure a better alternative. In 2025 we'll have Welsh on the list, but that could be balanced by the retirement of Walker (if/when that day comes). Given the urgency of improving our midfield, I'd suggest it's unlikely that we'll be recruiting anyone capable of forcing Fogarty out any time soon. In the meantime, the best we can do is cross our fingers and pray for a return to the Good Fog days.
 
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ftmch said:
He's definitely in a funk at the moment, but my god we don't make it easy for him.

Great example last night. Ball coming in, Fog (top left off screen) points to the pocket where he wants the kick - where he has clear space to work into and an advantage over his defender. Instead, it goes to the goal square, in the opposite direction that Fog was going and exactly where his defender moving towards.

This sort of s**t happens so many times every game.

View attachment 1958922
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Smithers going for goal?

Hungry hippo

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Drugs Are Bad Mackay? said:
What injury?
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We shouldn't rule out an injury

Darcy Fogarty is one of only two players in the history of the game that goes from being unfit to match fit in the space of a single week

(The other is Jake Soligo)

With such a magical property we could see a drastic improvement when he instantly regains match fitness
 

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Scorpus said:
We shouldn't rule out an injury

Darcy Fogarty is one of only two players in the history of the game that goes from being unfit to match fit in the space of a single week

(The other is Jake Soligo)

With such a magical property we could see a drastic improvement when he instantly regains match fitness
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I think it's very curious how Fogarty went from "Bad Old Fog" to "Good Fog" in the space of a single week, before reverting to "Bad New Fog" also in the space of a single week.

There's definitely more going on here than just fitness, though that was definitely one of the major issues which held him back during the "Bad Old Fog" days.
 
Vader said:
I think it's very curious how Fogarty went from "Bad Old Fog" to "Good Fog" in the space of a single week, before reverting to "Bad New Fog" also in the space of a single week.

There's definitely more going on here than just fitness, though that was definitely one of the major issues which held him back during the "Bad Old Fog" days.
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Its the Psychologist he is seeing. Need to get him a better one.
 
Sanders said:
given the appalling delivery and ball movement we’ve seen for a lot of this season, I reckon key forwards aren’t first order of business

Though it’s interesting to see some defrost a few old opinions first chance they get
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Its not just this season though. Its a convenient retort, but the discussion is around his form since round 7 of 2023 and why it so so damn different his first 4 games of 23 and end of 2022.

The bloke is in the leadership and shanked a kick from the goal square costing us a comeback against Geelong. He almost did the same against Carlton by having his cement hands drop a mark.

I get it - he is the reverse whipping boy - but there comes a time when a player needs to make his own way and establish himself in the AFL.
 
Vader said:
You can divide Fogarty's career (to date) into 3 distinct segments - which I will call "Bad Old" Fog, "Good" Fog, and "Bad New" Fog.

Bad Old Fog (R1 2018 - R10 2022)
The Bad Old Fog days were defined by inconsistency, not just from game to game, but quarter to quarter. Fog would often play brilliant cameos, lasting one quarter, but being largely invisible for the rest of the game. To be fair, the selectors didn't pick him regularly during this period - but his form didn't exactly demand regular selection either. In this period he played 46 games, averaging 8.1 disposals and 1.1 goals per game, with a best return of 5 goals (and another 4 games where he kicked bags of 3).

The most notable, arguably defining, characteristic of this period was his accuracy in front of goal - he kicked a total of 52.20 during this period (72.2% accuracy), and was the 3rd most accurate goal scorer in AFL/VFL history at the time of his 50th goal.

His potential during this period was obvious. We saw during those all-too-brief cameo performances just how good he could be. The problem was how to unlock the potential. The coaches tried playing him in the midfield and even in defence (in the SANFL) to try and coach him into becoming more involved in the game for longer. Nothing seemed to work, until it did, resulting in the Good Fog era...

Good Fog (R11 2022 - R6 2023)
During the 2022 pre-season Fog worked with Burgess to improve his fitness. He also worked with an unnamed sports psychologist, who helped him with his confidence. The results of the work done, on both mind & body, were remarkable.

In 16 games he kicked 44.15, at 74.5% accuracy, averaging 2.75 goals and 11.4 disposals per game. Finally, we saw the Fog that we'd been waiting for since the excitement of his initial drafting. Fog dominated, and Crows fans (including myself) couldn't have been happier to see his career blossoming.

This was the Fog playing at his full potential, and we all thought he had the world at his feet - and that he was finally stepping up, ready to become Walker's successor as the leader of our forward line.

Sadly, it wasn't to last...

Bad New Fog (R7 2023 - present)
The current period stands at 22 games, and counting. In this period he's gone back to averaging 1.1 goals per game, though his disposal numbers have improved (relative to the Bad Old days) to 10.5 per game. Worst, his goal kicking accuracy has deserted him - he's gone from 72% (Bad Old) and 74% (Good) to just 52%.

Unlike the Bad Old Fog days, he's playing games more consistently - the cameo performances are now gone, replaced by a more even performance across the duration of whole games, and from one game to the next. He seems to be playing further up the ground, winning more disposals on the wings than inside the F50, which may partly account for the reduction in his goal scoring.

The reality is though, that he's not offering enough further up the ground to counter the lack of goal scoring - and his reduced accuracy means that he's no longer such a dangerous target when he does get the ball inside scoring range.

As a forward, the Bad New Fog is struggling to win his own ball. Yes, delivery into our forward line was bloody awful in the first 4 games, but Fog hasn't helped his own cause either. Don't forget that the Bad New Fog era also spans the back half of 2023, when Adelaide was the highest scoring team in the competition, yet Fog was still struggling to make an impact. Delivery was not a problem at that time.

As AFC979810 has pointed out, his performances in this period are little different to those of Himmelberg, who has spent the last 12 months playing in the SANFL.

The big question is this - how do we get the Bad New Fog to revert to the form he showed in the Good Fog days? Maybe it's a simple as spending more time with the shrink. I don't know. What I do know is that the Good Fog era showed us what he's capable of, and we need to be seeing more of that (and less of the Bad New Fog).

Why Persist?
As I see it, there are 2 main reasons - hope, and a lack of alternative options.

The Good Fog era showed us exactly what he's capable of, when everything clicks. Nothing Himmelberg has ever done, or is ever likely to do, comes close to matching Fog's performances during this period. One of the main reasons for his ongoing selection is the hope that he will find that form again. However, he's now well into his 8th season, and there's only so long that a club can keep selecting a player based solely on potential - at some point the player's actual (disappointing) level of performance has to become the determining factor.

If we're to drop the Bad New Fog, then we need to replace him with someone who will perform better - and right now, no such player exists on our team list. Himmelberg is no better than the Bad New Fog, and not even in the same postcode as Good Fog. Similarly, Burgess & Gollant are no improvement, though both have an additional string to their bow as ruck support for ROB. That leaves Curtin as a longer-term option, but the coaches seem determined to play him in defence.

Fogarty's position will remain secure until the club can secure a better alternative. In 2025 we'll have Welsh on the list, but that could be balanced by the retirement of Walker (if/when that day comes). Given the urgency of improving our midfield, I'd suggest it's unlikely that we'll be recruiting anyone capable of forcing Fogarty out any time soon. In the meantime, the best we can do is cross our fingers and pray for a return to the Good Fog days.
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