Darcy Moore Contract extension

[Carringbush2010]

Going into last year, the expectation was best midfield in the competition. Looking at the team on paper, it was Collingwood, Geelong and GWS that stood out to me in no particular order.

Where do I rate Collingwood's midfield today? Well behind GWS, WBD, WCE and Brisbane. I'd also have Collingwood behind North Melbourne and Port Adelaide who both have a lot more quality midfield numbers. The midfield's of Geelong and Richmond I also slightly prefer.

Collingwood's midfield is Pendlebury and Treloar (both top 10-20 based on 2020 performance) but lacking any support last year. With Beams' return unlikely, all else Collingwood have is Adams with Sidebottom who generally plays more outside anyway. De Goey can pinch-hit through there, but he's likely to remain more a forward still. Stephenson in theory could play inside, and I'd like to see him get some minutes wing/hf, but he likely also remains more forward. Phillips is nice on the outside but he can't add anything inside. Mayne is servicable but unimpressive on the outside.Though whether he can Elliott is another best used as a forward and probably needs to start rotating through the midfield.

There isn't a lot there. It's a 3 player inside midfield group. The rest are guys who rotate through there or aren't of a standard where they should be playing. Grundy really carries that group. He's the sole super-star and is the difference between Collingwood being a top-4 side and a side that misses the top-8. And we're talking about a 22 man a side game. That's a lot of influence, but Grundy is one of those few individuals who makes any difference in ladder placings, making opponents look like state leaguers more weeks than not, such is the disparity in performance between Grundy and really other than Gawn anyone else.

That posts reads as failed to play to potential at anyone time or rarely. That means there's upside right? And lots of it. If you look at the tiges on face value they've played at peak at the right time of year - we were nowhere near it at any time in 2019. Maybe an inkling in the QF.

For mine a couple of factors as to why, we tweaked the way we played and it backfired and in part that may be the reason we weren't 'on' at any one time last year and the reason players like Sides dropped form. He's 28 he's not done and I don't expect another 2019 from him this year.

This is a serious list that is system reliant rather than personnel reliant, IF all of Treloar gets his burst back, Sides plays anywhere near his 18 form, Moore and Ellliot get on the park more, Tay gets his grunt back and we play the way we should instead of massaging the ball on possession win to invite pressure then this a team with a team game that is very very difficult to defeat. That can't be denied.

Play to potential at the right time of year like the tiges have in their two flags then Collingwood are going to be hard to pass up for a flag.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Well off topic, but the “premiership window” is a relic of MM’s time. The past three seasons have seen clubs jump from the bottom 6 into the top 4, the year before a team won it all from 7th and last seasons minor premier were odds on to fall out of the 8 leading into the season.

A clubs ability to win a premiership boils down to 3 ingredients in 2020 1. List chemistry 2. Coaching 3. Salary cap management (comprising two components acquisition and retention). We’ve seen the end of clubs systematically spending long periods down the bottom reaches of the ladder stockpiling high picks because it’s not a successful model and every clubs “window” is open from one year to the next depending on how they balance those three ingredients.

List management also, Moore plays more than 10 - 14 games and all of a sudden that 'window' looks wider doesn't it. On top an expected better performance from others on the list (coaching and development).

So we know we have Moore for 2020, for him to up his value he'll need to be more durable and play to potential. He does that and we're vastly improved and may snag a flag out of it.

 

[Scodog10]

What about Injuries?

Collingwood, GWS and the Bulldogs show that injuries have no bearing on a clubs ability to succeed so long as enough established players get a full pre-season in.

List management also, Moore plays more than 10 - 14 games and all of a sudden that 'window' looks wider doesn't it. On top an expected better performance from others on the list (coaching and development).

So we know we have Moore for 2020, for him to up his value he'll need to be more durable and play to potential. He does that and we're vastly improved and may snag a flag out of it.

It probably depends on the definition of list management because careful cap structuring is the next big thing in footy. For instance if we were offered concessions for being awesome that we were entitled to year on year and the choice was between an extra $600k or an extra 1st round pick I would choose the $’s.

Using a specific example that $600k allows us to retain JDG and Moore plus potentially acquire Williams post 2020 (depending on the outcome of the Beams situation). You add Williams and McInnes to our current mix for 2021 with no significant outgoings, regardless of where we finish in 2020, and we’ve improved enough to be contending.

Bringing it full circle reduced anxiety around Moore’s fitness will go a long way to building team chemistry and improve us as a collective. It will also make our coaching seem better because the players with the shared chemistry are better drilled at what they want executed. It will also allow him to get the payday he deserves from us.

 

[TradeDraft]

Collingwood, GWS and the Bulldogs show that injuries have no bearing on a clubs ability to succeed so long as enough established players get a full pre-season in.

They did not win the Flag Though

 

[Scodog10]

They did not win the Flag Though

I can assure you Collingwood and GWS did not lose their GF’s because of injuries.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Collingwood, GWS and the Bulldogs show that injuries have no bearing on a clubs ability to succeed so long as enough established players get a full pre-season in.



It probably depends on the definition of list management because careful cap structuring is the next big thing in footy. For instance if we were offered concessions for being awesome that we were entitled to year on year and the choice was between an extra $600k or an extra 1st round pick I would choose the $’s.

Using a specific example that $600k allows us to retain JDG and Moore plus potentially acquire Williams post 2020 (depending on the outcome of the Beams situation). You add Williams and McInnes to our current mix for 2021 with no significant outgoings, regardless of where we finish in 2020, and we’ve improved enough to be contending.

Bringing it full circle reduced anxiety around Moore’s fitness will go a long way to building team chemistry and improve us as a collective. It will also make our coaching seem better because the players with the shared chemistry are better drilled at what they want executed. It will also allow him to get the payday he deserves from us.

1/ Collingwood has not succeeded since 2010, GWS has not at all, I think the word you're looking for is contending albeit injuries. If we have a better injury run in particular marquee players like Moore that immediately improves our position.

2/ Agree with the rest of your post except for one key ingredient, I'm not sure how long Pendles can consistently put in exceptional performances week on week. On face value he hasn't lost anything, still has that elusive ability to bend time to his will. Williams and or McInnes won't make up for Pendles dropping away.

3/ Moore's contract extension and what it looks like for Moore / Collingwood and an outside party (another club) all hinges on how he performs this year. Don't be surprised if he has a break out year. Degoey the same.

 

[Apex36]

I'm just too busy chuckling about Stinky McPoopface. I think I;m about eight again.

Well I do have a 6 year old who’s obsessed with Captain Underpants and Dog Man books (literally all poop, butt and fart jokes) so naturally it was the first thing that popped in to my head.

 

[Knightmare]

So in your mind we've wasted another window? Or in your mind we're not in the window anymore?

You'll know my pessimism in regards to our window in Pies narrowing window thread on the main board BUT still believe we're still in it. As far as relevance to the thread it's going to take 18 - 22 h&a games from Moore for any chance of that elusive flag.

The rest of the recipe needs to also fall into place, that doesn't make a given that we're no chance IMO.

Hard to say when the window closes, but I'm seeing roughly 3-6 teams that are better again this year.

I will say after looking wide open in recent years with no one dominant team these past 5 years, a lot of the contenders are looking strong this year. Richmond are stronger with Motlop, another year into Stack. Riley Collier-Dawkins and Noah Balta can become good. Jack Ross can play.

West Coast are better with Tim Kelly added.

GWS will be a force again this year and look more solid with Jacobs a capable ruckman, Ash to help with more drive in defence and Green a piece. Caldwell and Hately will be another year older.

Western Bulldogs I think other than Richmond might be that next best side. Josh Bruce and Alex Keath count and make them much stronger through the KPP. Bailey Smith if he gets midfield minutes will be a difference maker this year. English should be more competitive with another year of development through the ruck. Naughton could take another step. Schache is on the improve. Bailey Dale looked good late season and if he builds on that he could be something. Weightman could play a role up forward. McLean should be better this year. Rhylee West can earn games and add to the Dogs' best 22. Lewis Young showed signs in his first preseason game and could also contend for games in a KPP.

They're the four sides in some order I have ahead of Collingwood. Geelong/Brisbane are others I have for now in Collingwood's conversation along with Hawthorn and Port Adelaide - with both sides looking much better this year.

With the good sides other than maybe Geelong and Brisbane all looking stronger for 2020 and Collingwood a side where I'm not seeing where the improvement comes from relative to some of those other sides, I see Collingwood a couple of positions worse in 2020 to predict at this point.

Hope the Pies prove me wrong though and win premiership #16. That's a prediction I wouldn't mind getting wrong.

 

[legendstatus]

I can assure you Collingwood and GWS did not lose their GF’s because of injuries.

Didn’t help that’s for sure

We have Moore for the year let’s focus on 2020 and the rest will take care of itself


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sea fog]

Hard to say when the window closes, but I'm seeing roughly 3-6 teams that are better again this year.

I will say after looking wide open in recent years with no one dominant team these past 5 years, a lot of the contenders are looking strong this year. Richmond are stronger with Motlop, another year into Stack. Riley Collier-Dawkins and Noah Balta can become good. Jack Ross can play.

West Coast are better with Tim Kelly added.

GWS will be a force again this year and look more solid with Jacobs a capable ruckman, Ash to help with more drive in defence and Green a piece. Caldwell and Hately will be another year older.

Western Bulldogs I think other than Richmond might be that next best side. Josh Bruce and Alex Keath count and make them much stronger through the KPP. Bailey Smith if he gets midfield minutes will be a difference maker this year. English should be more competitive with another year of development through the ruck. Naughton could take another step. Schache is on the improve. Bailey Dale looked good late season and if he builds on that he could be something. Weightman could play a role up forward. McLean should be better this year. Rhylee West can earn games and add to the Dogs' best 22. Lewis Young showed signs in his first preseason game and could also contend for games in a KPP.

They're the four sides in some order I have ahead of Collingwood. Geelong/Brisbane are others I have for now in Collingwood's conversation along with Hawthorn and Port Adelaide - with both sides looking much better this year.

With the good sides other than maybe Geelong and Brisbane all looking stronger for 2020 and Collingwood a side where I'm not seeing where the improvement comes from relative to some of those other sides, I see Collingwood a couple of positions worse in 2020 to predict at this point.

Hope the Pies prove me wrong though and win premiership #16. That's a prediction I wouldn't mind getting wrong.

Agreed, but they have some of their guns in the veteran stage now like Kennedy and McGovern and Rioli is probably not going to play. Hurn is getting into that bracket too.

I see the Cats as probably being in decline.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Hard to say when the window closes, but I'm seeing roughly 3-6 teams that are better again this year.

I will say after looking wide open in recent years with no one dominant team these past 5 years, a lot of the contenders are looking strong this year. Richmond are stronger with Motlop, another year into Stack. Riley Collier-Dawkins and Noah Balta can become good. Jack Ross can play.

West Coast are better with Tim Kelly added.

GWS will be a force again this year and look more solid with Jacobs a capable ruckman, Ash to help with more drive in defence and Green a piece. Caldwell and Hately will be another year older.

Western Bulldogs I think other than Richmond might be that next best side. Josh Bruce and Alex Keath count and make them much stronger through the KPP. Bailey Smith if he gets midfield minutes will be a difference maker this year. English should be more competitive with another year of development through the ruck. Naughton could take another step. Schache is on the improve. Bailey Dale looked good late season and if he builds on that he could be something. Weightman could play a role up forward. McLean should be better this year. Rhylee West can earn games and add to the Dogs' best 22. Lewis Young showed signs in his first preseason game and could also contend for games in a KPP.

They're the four sides in some order I have ahead of Collingwood. Geelong/Brisbane are others I have for now in Collingwood's conversation along with Hawthorn and Port Adelaide - with both sides looking much better this year.

With the good sides other than maybe Geelong and Brisbane all looking stronger for 2020 and Collingwood a side where I'm not seeing where the improvement comes from relative to some of those other sides, I see Collingwood a couple of positions worse in 2020 to predict at this point.

Hope the Pies prove me wrong though and win premiership #16. That's a prediction I wouldn't mind getting wrong.

You're looking at things purely from list perspectives though, you've even admitted our 2019 season was well below par from a potential perspective using examples like Sides for one.

Remember this is a system team - at its best - probably more so than any other team apart from maybe the tiges. The personnel we have which is no slouch is the bonus IMO.

IF Moore can ply a solid season (which he'll be gunning for given it's the last year on contract) and others you've mentioned play closer to potential make no mistake we're right in this.

I'd completely agree with your post IF those teams like the dogs, WC, GWS etc. play at optimum AND we'd continue with disappointing form. That is highly unlikely they'll all play at optimum for the year and we wallow in poor form for the same period.

Also remember this team rose to prominence with near zero list change from 2017, the advantage we CAN have is the system we play.

Maybe have a visit to the 'Pies narrowing window, last chance saloon' thread on the main board. It almost mirrors your pessimism list wise but also points out why this team is every chance it's not list - as evident after 2017. Sure it's an opinion piece but it's fair speculation.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Agreed, but they have some of their guns in the veteran stage now like Kennedy and McGovern and Rioli is probably not going to play. Hurn is getting into that bracket too.

I see the Cats as probably being in decline.

To add, WC is highly personnel reliant they are very much a transition based team. Against pressure teams (like us) they're vulnerable IF they slip up in transition they're badly exposed the other way in particular against pressure teams.

Players like Moore are the Gov opposed to wc, not as a good intercept marker BUT there's no reason he can't build to be the KPD of his time given his athleticism. My guess is he'll be gunning more than ever to have a break out season to up his value, does that and we're a huge chance at a flag.

 

[Knightmare]

Agreed, but they have some of their guns in the veteran stage now like Kennedy and McGovern and Rioli is probably not going to play. Hurn is getting into that bracket too.

I see the Cats as probably being in decline.

What worries me with West Coast relatively is their youth is terrible. Though the one exception I will make is Jarrod Cameron who should not be slept on. I think he'll be one of the best small forwards in the competition. He can be another Charlie. Already very good in year one and I see him going from strength to strength.

Geelong without Kelly is a major downgrade, and they're another team with an ageing list and lack of youth. I do like their additions though. Steven, Jenkins,
Cooper Stevens through the draft can be someone, though coming off a major injury it's unclear whether it's this year. Menegola should be better. Miers people are going to need to respect, he's a legit forward. As long as Geelong's 'name' midfielders all play well, they'll be hard to beat again. If a few of them get hurt, then a ladder drop is possible.

 

[Knightmare]

You're looking at things purely from list perspectives though, you've even admitted our 2019 season was well below par from a potential perspective using examples like Sides for one.

Remember this is a system team - at its best - probably more so than any other team apart from maybe the tiges. The personnel we have which is no slouch is the bonus IMO.

IF Moore can ply a solid season (which he'll be gunning for given it's the last year on contract) and others you've mentioned play closer to potential make no mistake we're right in this.

I'd completely agree with your post IF those teams like the dogs, WC, GWS etc. play at optimum AND we'd continue with disappointing form. That is highly unlikely they'll all play at optimum for the year and we wallow in poor form for the same period.

Also remember this team rose to prominence with near zero list change from 2017, the advantage we CAN have is the system we play.

Maybe have a visit to the 'Pies narrowing window, last chance saloon' thread on the main board. It almost mirrors your pessimism list wise but also points out why this team is every chance it's not list - as evident after 2017. Sure it's an opinion piece but it's fair speculation.

2015-2019 the competition was wide open. There wasn't a single great team in the competition. Just a bunch of team you'd think would be top-4 contenders, but nothing all that incredible.

Things would need to go right in a big way for Collingwood to improve. Sidebottom would need to become who he was in 2018 again, Adams would have to return to 2017 form, Moore stays healthy and Collingwood's other stars fire.

Pies still have star power, they'll just all need to be at or near the top of their games for it to result in the ultimate outcome in 2020.

At this point I'm not liking the odds, but with Collingwood (2011), Geelong (2008) and West Coast (1991) all having the highest percentages in AFL history and all losing the Grand Finals in those years, despite having the strongest teams in the history of the competition in percentage terms which is typically the best indicator or real team playing strength, it's fair to say no outcome is set in stone.

Who had West Coast going all the way in 2018 without Gaff, Naitanui, Sheppard all missing? Western Bulldogs in 2016 without Murphy? It's a strange game. Though from this year I'm expecting somewhat less strange with the top sides getting stronger which other than Richmond securing Lynch last year hasn't been much of a feature in recent times.

 

[Carringbush2010]

2015-2019 the competition was wide open. There wasn't a single great team in the competition. Just a bunch of team you'd think would be top-4 contenders, but nothing all that incredible.

Things would need to go right in a big way for Collingwood to improve. Sidebottom would need to become who he was in 2018 again, Adams would have to return to 2017 form, Moore stays healthy and Collingwood's other stars fire.

Pies still have star power, they'll just all need to be at or near the top of their games for it to result in the ultimate outcome in 2020.

At this point I'm not liking the odds, but with Collingwood (2011), Geelong (2008) and West Coast (1991) all having the highest percentages in AFL history and all losing the Grand Finals in those years, despite having the strongest teams in the history of the competition in percentage terms which is typically the best indicator or real team playing strength, it's fair to say no outcome is set in stone.

Who had West Coast going all the way in 2018 without Gaff, Naitanui, Sheppard all missing? Western Bulldogs in 2016 without Murphy? It's a strange game. Though from this year I'm expecting somewhat less strange with the top sides getting stronger which other than Richmond securing Lynch last year hasn't been much of a feature in recent times.

Again, I think you need to visit the Pies narrowing window thread. It's very reflective of your opinion.

The Pies star power is a bonus more than wc for example, remember this Pies team IS a system team. It relies more so on footy fundamentals more than it does on personnel - that is key advantage, the role for role mantra despite injuries have had us contending for the last two years.

IF Moore and JDG have break out seasons in that system, which is highly possible, oh boy this group is a serious serious threat.

Jeez, I thought I was pessimistic in that thread (Pies window) but you've taken it to a new level. Yeah I get we don't have the personnel - as good as ours is - as those teams around us. Again we've contended with little list change with high amount of injuries on the back of culture and system.

For your gloomy outlook to come to pass WILL take those other teams around us performing at optimum, at the right time AND our team continuing season long poor form. The latter is highly unlikely.

 

[Carringbush2010]

What worries me with West Coast relatively is their youth is terrible. Though the one exception I will make is Jarrod Cameron who should not be slept on. I think he'll be one of the best small forwards in the competition. He can be another Charlie. Already very good in year one and I see him going from strength to strength.

Geelong without Kelly is a major downgrade, and they're another team with an ageing list and lack of youth. I do like their additions though. Steven, Jenkins,
Cooper Stevens through the draft can be someone, though coming off a major injury it's unclear whether it's this year. Menegola should be better. Miers people are going to need to respect, he's a legit forward. As long as Geelong's 'name' midfielders all play well, they'll be hard to beat again. If a few of them get hurt, then a ladder drop is possible.

Again both of those teams ARE more personnel reliant than what Collingwood is (and Richmond) for Geelong more so this is telling, admittedly that midfield with Danger and Gaz pose huge problems for the opposition whereas WC forwards are ageing as good as they are but they do have an underrated mid brigade particularly when you add a Tim Kelly to an already Yeo, Redden and Scheuy with a Gaff on the outside.

Pressure is their kryptonite for both of those teams, I fear the tiges will be the ones to beat even they don't possess stellar players like these two - system is key for the tiges (and us) they've got two flags from it and we should've already had one as well.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

5 years in to his career, the pick we used on him is irrelevant.

It indicates that he was more highly rated at the time so theoretically should develop into a better player than brown or Daicos. . Unless you believe the draft is a completely random lottery.

 

[sr36]

So in your mind we've wasted another window? Or in your mind we're not in the window anymore?

You'll know my pessimism in regards to our window in Pies narrowing window thread on the main board BUT still believe we're still in it. As far as relevance to the thread it's going to take 18 - 22 h&a games from Moore for any chance of that elusive flag.

The rest of the recipe needs to also fall into place, that doesn't make a given that we're no chance IMO.

I reckon our window is widening.
Grundy, Moore, JDG, Stepho, Maynard still on the rise
Adams, Crisp, Treloar set to peak.
Howe, Pendles and Sidey yet to decline.
A heap of decent role players with a good number of games under their belt.

 

[sr36]

Again both of those teams ARE more personnel reliant than what Collingwood is (and Richmond) for Geelong more so this is telling, admittedly that midfield with Danger and Gaz pose huge problems for the opposition whereas WC forwards are ageing as good as they are but they do have an underrated mid brigade particularly when you add a Tim Kelly to an already Yeo, Redden and Scheuy with a Gaff on the outside.

Pressure is their kryptonite for both of those teams, I fear the tiges will be the ones to beat even they don't possess stellar players like these two - system is key for the tiges (and us) they've got two flags from it and we should've already had one as well.

WCE scare me. Last year they were transitioning to a more attacking style. When it clicked they looked good, but they were inconsistent with it and went into their shells too often. Next year, with the addition of Kelly and another year to become confident in a more run and gun approach, I think they'll be very dangerous.

 

[Kappa]

WCE scare me. Last year they were transitioning to a more attacking style. When it clicked they looked good, but they were inconsistent with it and went into their shells too often. Next year, with the addition of Kelly and another year to become confident in a more run and gun approach, I think they'll be very dangerous.

Their only downside is their age of key players

Hurn and Kennedy are both 32 and still super important

Schofield 31

Jetta Natanui Shuey 29

 

[sr36]

I'm just too busy chuckling about Stinky McPoopface. I think I;m about eight again.

Anyone got any draft videos of this McPoopface kid?

 

[sr36]

Their only downside is their age of key players

Hurn and Kennedy are both 32 and still super important

Schofield 31

Jetta Natanui Shuey 29

Hurn is the only one of them that I'm expecting a drop in output from next year. Jetta and Shuey are peaking. After the last couple of years, anything from NicNat is a bonus. Kennedy was too injured to train all of last year. Don't be surprised if he's a significantly improved player next year. I still think they're well and truly in the running for a year or two.

 

[Apex36]

Anyone got any draft videos of this McPoopface kid?

 

[Carringbush2010]

I reckon our window is widening.
Grundy, Moore, JDG, Stepho, Maynard still on the rise
Adams, Crisp, Treloar set to peak.
Howe, Pendles and Sidey yet to decline.
A heap of decent role players with a good number of games under their belt.

Compare that list wise to the tigs, wc and giants - those windows look wider.

 

[Carringbush2010]

WCE scare me. Last year they were transitioning to a more attacking style. When it clicked they looked good, but they were inconsistent with it and went into their shells too often. Next year, with the addition of Kelly and another year to become confident in a more run and gun approach, I think they'll be very dangerous.

That's all good and well until they inevitably mistake in their transition, against pressure teams they get exposed if their movement falters any.