Draft Expert Davo-27's 2022 u18 Draft Thread

Remove this Banner Ad

danster168

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 29, 2016
6,166
5,272
AFL Club
Melbourne
A couple of points.

1. I don’t claim to be a draft expert or official draft watcher.

The most I watch are the National Championship games, any Lions academy games that are streamed and the odd QAFL game that features one or more of our academy kids.

I lean/borrow heavily on other peoples work, especially the Rookie Me writers.

I have repeatedly said that both on this page, and on the Lions page. I’m very much open about my non expertise here.

I just like following the draft and talking about the kids, particularly as it relates to the Lions.


2. Knightmare as an “expert” has been caught out giving descriptions about kids he has not watched, without clearly stating as much.

He has been caught out and called out by other draft watchers.

You might have missed out on the sh!t that went down here in 2020.

3. Knightmare claims not to read other peoples work. But it’s clear as day that he does, when he uses specific descriptions lifted from other peoples work. He lifted his description of Blake Coleman directly from me. And the description was one I had explained to me in private, and then used on the board. Don’t deny using someone else’s work, when it’s right there.
why would you expect him to have seen everyone? He's 1 person. You expect him to watch a triple header TAC cup game, then turn back time to watch the vfl and look out for the mature recruits? And then travel back in time and watch the draftees that are playing school footy? And then quickly jump on a flight and head to Perth to watch their local comp and then to all of the other states all in the matter of 48 hours, every weekend?

It doesn't need to be stated, it's common sense.
 

gungho

Club Legend
Dec 31, 2013
1,630
2,686
AFL Club
Fremantle
huh? strange take my you. so melbourne took Toumpas at pick 4. so they aren't experts? freo took Liam Henry at pick 9, Ryley Dunn & Marcus Drum at pick 10, Michael Apeness at 17 etc. so they aren't experts? Carlton took Dow at 3 so they aren't experts? Literally every club has bad misses. So you either have a personal agenda against Nightmare or you just don't know the draft all that well.
Have you actually read my post Dan?
The point is everyone has hits and misses (that was literally the first line of my post) but if your prediction on a player is to be taken at 13, and he's taken at 60, then that's a fairly extraordinary misread. You'd expect to get a little closer than that if you have the self proclaimed title "Draft Expert" beside your name.
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
22,029
25,349
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
why would you expect him to have seen everyone? He's 1 person. You expect him to watch a triple header TAC cup game, then turn back time to watch the vfl and look out for the mature recruits? And then travel back in time and watch the draftees that are playing school footy? And then quickly jump on a flight and head to Perth to watch their local comp and then to all of the other states all in the matter of 48 hours, every weekend?

It doesn't need to be stated, it's common sense.
Just say, “I haven’t seen the kid”.

Don’t provide descriptions based purely on stats.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

danster168

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 29, 2016
6,166
5,272
AFL Club
Melbourne
Just say, “I haven’t seen the kid”.

Don’t provide descriptions based purely on stats.
yeah, if that's what you need then sure. But I personally think it goes without saying. Even full recruiting teams would have many members that haven't seen a player live. That's not uncommon even at the afl level.
 

pushintheback

Team Captain
May 31, 2010
538
463
AFL Club
Adelaide
yeah, if that's what you need then sure. But I personally think it goes without saying. Even full recruiting teams would have many members that haven't seen a player live. That's not uncommon even at the afl level.
The last time that happened Jarrod Oakley Nichols was drafted to Richmond. He was never watched live and we all know how that turned out. I don't reckon in this day n age any AFL recruiters would recruit based purely on vision. (excl when covid made it impossible to watch, even then locally based recruiters would generally get to games)
 

Red Black and Blue

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 1, 2006
25,032
18,666
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Everton, Storm, Victory
Have you actually read my post Dan?
The point is everyone has hits and misses (that was literally the first line of my post) but if your prediction on a player is to be taken at 13, and he's taken at 60, then that's a fairly extraordinary misread. You'd expect to get a little closer than that if you have the self proclaimed title "Draft Expert" beside your name.

I don't think it matters where they get taken. It matters more if they develop into good footballers. Most people don't have enough club connections to have any real understanding of who is going where after the first few and it's all just the industry vibe.
 

mattyc75

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2010
7,830
7,004
over here
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
,west perthgolden state warriors
yeah, if that's what you need then sure. But I personally think it goes without saying. Even full recruiting teams would have many members that haven't seen a player live. That's not uncommon even at the afl level.
I always enjoyed reading KMs threads as i do all these threads.
Hes just about the only 1 tho that would constantly throw out the ' and I'm the only 1 making this unique assessment '
Which is cool but then he'd also say that he doesnt read other phantoms/threads
So how does he know he's the only 1?
I always had a chuckle when he'd chuck a state leaguer into his top 10/20 to be edgy then theyd not even get drafted


On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Apex36

Hall of Famer
Mar 26, 2014
35,952
71,238
AFL Club
Collingwood
View attachment 1559200

Quaynor would go top 10 in a re-draft, and the top 10 of that draft is some elite company to be in.
It’s easy to take shots by posting someone’s misses and neglecting to give credit for hits.
I don’t always agree with KM, but he puts a lot of work in to his draft rankings, and nobody who puts in that sort of effort deserves to be ridiculed.
 

danster168

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 29, 2016
6,166
5,272
AFL Club
Melbourne
Have you actually read my post Dan?
The point is everyone has hits and misses (that was literally the first line of my post) but if your prediction on a player is to be taken at 13, and he's taken at 60, then that's a fairly extraordinary misread. You'd expect to get a little closer than that if you have the self proclaimed title "Draft Expert" beside your name.
I didn't read your opening post. but knightmare doesn't pretend that he has inside sources does he? But how is it any different to draft sliders that happen in every draft? He's not privy to the interviews of the draftees where they say something that puts clubs off etc. Last year Cal Twomey predicted Blake Howes to go at #19. He went at #39. And that's someone who is actually fed truckloads of information from every single player manager. So it shouldn't surprise anyone if a guy like Knightmare expects someone to go early but slides unexpectedly.



Now another link from Cal Twomey. He had Weideman, Schache, Aaron Francis, Wayne Milera and Matthew Kennedy before Clayton Oliver. He also had Balic (rip) at #12 who went at #38.

2015 draft: Final phantom form guide update

So I personally think your expectations of knightmare are way too high. But furthermore I think that rate too high the actually full time afl recruiters who get it wrong a lot of the time.

In the first round, about 50% are busts. This is over about 10 years of data.
 

danster168

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 29, 2016
6,166
5,272
AFL Club
Melbourne
The last time that happened Jarrod Oakley Nichols was drafted to Richmond. He was never watched live and we all know how that turned out. I don't reckon in this day n age any AFL recruiters would recruit based purely on vision. (excl when covid made it impossible to watch, even then locally based recruiters would generally get to games)
I didn't say that. But in a recruiting team, including part timers there's definitely some that wouldn't have seen some draftees play because they may be simply assigned to different teams, different states etc.
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
22,029
25,349
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
I didn't say that. But in a recruiting team, including part timers there's definitely some that wouldn't have seen some draftees play because they may be simply assigned to different teams, different states etc.
Logic says those recruiters don't provide the club a player profile on those kids.
 

GoTigers2015

🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆2017🏆2019🏆2020🏆
Oct 27, 2014
16,044
112,868
AFL Club
Richmond
I bet most posters nit picking Cal Twomey's past PDs use this years one as a foundation for their own predictions.
He is generally on the money for first 10-12 picks but after that it becomes more of a lottery.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

FB19

All Australian
Feb 2, 2022
733
1,229
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Casey Voss a chance again this draft? :p
I agree with knightmare that clubs overlook mature age talent to their detriment. In my working life we are far more interested in older hires given they fill a role don’t need much hand holding aren’t expensive etc and figure the afl will catch up. To your joke what more could Casey Voss seriously have done to get drafted?
 

Mutineer

Premium Platinum
Aug 9, 2019
29,050
50,908
Victorian Central Highlands
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
The mighty Panthers, GWV Rebels, Be
I agree with knightmare that clubs overlook mature age talent to their detriment. In my working life we are far more interested in older hires given they fill a role don’t need much hand holding aren’t expensive etc and figure the afl will catch up. To your joke what more could Casey Voss seriously have done to get drafted?
Yeah the 18 Club recruiting teams have been wrong now in multiple drafts not to have picked Casey Voss.....and Doerre was right....
 

Rusty Beam

Premiership Player
Sep 30, 2009
4,260
5,960
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yeah the 18 Club recruiting teams have been wrong now in multiple drafts not to have picked Casey Voss.....and Doerre was right....

There’s a growing list of mature aged recruits who have gone on to be AFL stars, who themselves may have never played a single game at the top level had one solitary club not taken a chance.

Ignoring the KM comment, it’s pretty easy in my opinion to consider that all 18 clubs have missed plenty of mature aged AFL capable talent across the years.
 

mattyc75

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2010
7,830
7,004
over here
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
,west perthgolden state warriors
There’s a growing list of mature aged recruits who have gone on to be AFL stars, who themselves may have never played a single game at the top level had one solitary club not taken a chance.

Ignoring the KM comment, it’s pretty easy in my opinion to consider that all 18 clubs have missed plenty of mature aged AFL capable talent across the years.
The eagles had some mature ages players come in in the first half of the year and perform very well, showed up our old timers.


On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Davo-27

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 9, 2006
7,420
12,590
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Box Hill Hawks
How do those who've seen them, rate Jakob Ryan v Lachlan Cowan?
Similar players, Cowan plays in a better League and averages I think 25-30 off hbf (last time I looked he was averaging midfield numbers off hbf), both good runners, both were good in their disappointing teams in the champs, both likely to go 2nd round with Cowan having interest in late 1st round I believe, also some interest in late 1st for J.Ryan potentially but I think it's a bit high for him.

Personally I didn't think much of Casey Voss as a junior, so unless he has developed a lot since then I doubt he gets drafted.
 

Tiger_Of_Old

🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆
Nov 23, 2000
54,196
117,210
Country Victoria
AFL Club
Richmond
There’s a growing list of mature aged recruits who have gone on to be AFL stars, who themselves may have never played a single game at the top level had one solitary club not taken a chance.

Ignoring the KM comment, it’s pretty easy in my opinion to consider that all 18 clubs have missed plenty of mature aged AFL capable talent across the years.
Would be interesting the hit n miss Ratio would improve on the positive side if the draft age was lifted too 19.
 

ArdentEagle

The Baron of Bourbon
Feb 12, 2008
8,079
14,644
Minor Infraction
AFL Club
West Coast
Similar players, Cowan plays in a better League and averages I think 25-30 off hbf (last time I looked he was averaging midfield numbers off hbf), both good runners, both were good in their disappointing teams in the champs, both likely to go 2nd round with Cowan having interest in late 1st round I believe, also some interest in late 1st for J.Ryan potentially but I think it's a bit high for him.

Personally I didn't think much of Casey Voss as a junior, so unless he has developed a lot since then I doubt he gets drafted.
Injury aside...Where would you rank Gilbey with those two? (and Kaleb Smith for that matter)
 

Davo-27

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 9, 2006
7,420
12,590
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Box Hill Hawks
Injury aside...Where would you rank Gilbey with those two? (and Kaleb Smith for that matter)
Kaleb Smith has a bit of Isaac Smith about him, I wouldn't be surprised if he was a surprise late 1st round pick, could be a bit of a bolter?, has gone under the radar a bit, but there's just something exciting about him imo, I hear WCE are into him at their pick 26.

Gilbey has got some moves as a hbf last year, good run and carry, takes on opponents, but he needed to show consistency and an ability to win it more this year along with better use of the footy(I know his club was trying to sell him as a great kick, but that was an area I was hoping to see improvement in with him) and unfortunately was riddled with injury, so I'm not comfortable with him going top 30 because there's too many question marks on his potential and other than his run and carry most of his game wasn't great or stood out so there's a lot of unknown from what I've seen and remember of his game.
 
Last edited:

pushintheback

Team Captain
May 31, 2010
538
463
AFL Club
Adelaide
Kaleb Smith has a bit of Isaac Smith about him, I wouldn't be surprised if he was a surprise late 1st round pick, could be a bit of a bolter?, has gone under the radar a bit, but there's just something exciting about him imo, I hear WCE are into him at their pick 26.

Gilbey has got some moves as a hbf last year, good run and carry, takes on opponents, but he needed to show consistency and an ability to win it more this year along with better use of the footy and unfortunately was riddled with injury, so I'm not comfortable with him going top 30 because there's too many question marks on his potential and other than his run and carry most of his game wasn't great or stood out so there's a lot of unknown from what I've seen and remember of his game.
I watched some vision on Smith as I hadnt seen much of him. I like his speed and ability to break lines. He looks most damaging when he's a 50m player. Could be bigger meterage if he improves his kicking. He doesnt seem to have a lot of power out of congestion but there is a bit to work with IMO. HB are all the rage atm, particularly the ones that have speed and power.
 

Remove this Banner Ad