Discussion on Draft / young untested prospects

[God Save Max King]

Cheers for the reply Rahul. From what you are saying then, is this correct...?

- #1-5: potential elite players
- #6-40: much lower chance of being elite but a relative even smatter of probably decent AFL players
- >#40: forgetaboutit...

Hence does it make sense, in this draft, to try to do some or all of these things...

- maximise the number of top 5 picks you can get (no-brainer but practically impossible?)
- prioritise quantity of top 40 picks over minimum number of earlier picks i.e. 2 late 20 picks are better than 1 teen pick

The obvious consequences might be...

- trade Dal to North for two second rounders or #27and a GOP (e.g. Delaney)
- trade Chips for Bruce or a late 30s pick

If I was to put the talent into tiers, it would be -
Tier 1 [Boyd, Aish]
Tier 2 [Next 4, McDonald, Billings, Scharenburg, Kelly]
Tier 3 [Pick 6-11]
Tier 4 [Pick 12- 20]
Tier 5 [Pick 21-30]
Tier 6 [Pick 30 to ~40]
Tier 7 [Pick 40+]

The difference between tier 1 and two is little but is still slightly significant. The difference between tier 2 and 3 is quite significant and the difference between 3 and 4 is small and sometimes a matter of opinion for clubs. Tier 4 to 5 is a slight change and the difference in quality between 5 and 6 is also not too significant. After that it falls off a cliff and the draft is basically useless. Again, a lot of people see the draft as weak at 20, or 30, or even 50, but that's just my take on it.

What does that mean? I would load up on picks in the late teens and the early 20s and I wouldn't package 2 teens picks together to get a top 10 pick. If we got pick 9, I would be all for packaging that for Hawthorn's 2 first rounders (Buddy compensation). We are (un)lucky enough to be at the bottom of the ladder so our 3rd rounder could still have some value on the trade table.
For example: I would rather have Dumont and Acres (18+19) over Kolodjashnij OR Bontempelli (Pick 9)

 

[Sir Skid]

Anybody looked at Nick Holman?
I hear this kid can really play and has a raft of suitors already.
Pelch?

 

[karaoke]

Anybody looked at Nick Holman?
I hear this kid can really play and has a raft of suitors already.
Pelch?

what do you think green vested ?

 

[Sir Skid]

what do you think green vested ?

Hah! Just got off the phone to green vested!

 

[green vested]

what do you think green vested ?

I think if you head to draft page on bf you'll find my post regarding Nic Holman, talented kid who had 7 scouts watching him in Sundays GVFL grandfinal where IMO he was in the best 3 on the ground

 

[karaoke]

I think if you head to draft page on bf you'll find my post regarding Nic Holman, talented kid who had 7 scouts watching him in Sundays GVFL grandfinal where IMO he was in the best 3 on the ground

Yes,

But being the Saints man you are, thought it would be good for you to venture on here to pass on your thoughts, once Sir Skids brought up his name,

You know, we don't see you enough here on the Saints boards...

 

[Sir Skid]

Yes,

But being the Saints man you are, thought it would be good for you to venture on here to pass on your thoughts, once Sir Skids brought up his name,

You know, we don't see you enough here on the Saints boards...

Agree with krk004 on this green vested being a Saints supporter and an insightful one at that it would be good if you could post on here more often...

 

[Barrels]

Anybody looked at Nick Holman?
I hear this kid can really play and has a raft of suitors already.
Pelch?

Knightmare's take:

#40 West Coast – Nick Holman (VIC – Mid)
Height: 186cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 29/05/1995
Recruited from: Murray Bushrangers
Style:
Player comparison:
Range: 20-60
Profile: Holman is a tough, physical inside player who really attacks the footy and goes in hard at every opportunity. He has an excellent tackling game making his tackles stick. He’s a big factor inside not only for his tackling but also ability to win his own footy and win the clearances. He’s had a strong season and his game held up strongly through the u18 champs which was encouraging. My main criticism of Holman at this point is by foot he can try to do too much which is why his kicking efficiency is lower than it probably should be but with work it’s something he has the opportunity to iron out.

And of course...

A Pelch special...

 

[Sir Skid]

Knightmare's take:

Thanks for posting this Uncle Barrels
Could be worth a look a bit later in the draft if still there.

 

[BrianSpeaking]

Knightmare's take:


And of course...

A Pelch special...

Nice player but his younger brother is a jet, will be top 15 next year.

 

[Barrels]

Someone help me out here... Who the hell is Berg?

 

[goodie23]

Someone help me out here... Who the hell is Berg?

Matthew Scharenburg, 190cm SA utility tipped to go 1-5 in the draft

 

[Barrels]

Matthew Scharenburg, 190cm SA utility tipped to go 1-5 in the draft

Aaaaah, thanks, that makes sense.

 

[Persevering Saint]

At the risk of saying the unmentionable, do you guys think we'll be able to pick up Tom Langdon as a rookie, or do we need to get him in the regular draft?

 

[AFLOnline]

I know this is picky but aish and berg arn't tac cup prospects lol

 

[God Save Max King]

At the risk of saying the unmentionable, do you guys think we'll be able to pick up Tom Langdon as a rookie, or do we need to get him in the regular draft?

I would take him in the 4th round if available, but I think a club will grab him in the 3rd round.

 

[Squizz]

I know this is picky but aish and berg arn't tac cup prospects lol

Feel free to suggest the appropriate thread title. I don't follow the kids.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Feel free to suggest the appropriate thread title. I don't follow the kids.

Discussion on Draft Prospects?

So are we creating separate threads? One for Trade and one for Draft?

 

[AFLOnline]

Feel free to suggest the appropriate thread title. I don't follow the kids.

it's fine I was just being a nuisance.

hopefully we can find a way to get a pick between 5-11 so we can snag crouch. I would be over the moon with that.

 

[Squizz]

Discussion on Draft Prospects?

So are we creating separate threads? One for Trade and one for Draft?

The existing thread - speculation, rumours, bullshit - St Kilda

The existing thread - speculation, rumours, bullshit, with a little bit of actual news for variety - other clubs

Confirmed trades / drafting thread (sticky)

Thread to discuss/review the young untested talent (whether TAC or elsewhere).

I was happy to keep in one thread during the year, but now the time has actually come - and the volume has increased - we need to keep discussions separate (for the benefit of posters not on the board every day).

 

[stkildathunda]

At the risk of saying the unmentionable, do you guys think we'll be able to pick up Tom Langdon as a rookie, or do we need to get him in the regular draft?

Highly unlikely mate

 

[God Save Max King]

Perhaps "2013 Draft Discussion"? I could change it since I have the opening post.

Combine Sprint Results: Jon Marsh ran about 2.78 second over 20 metres, second fastest time ever recorded. Nathan Freeman ran 2.81

 

[stkildathunda]

Perhaps "2013 Draft Discussion"? I could change it since I have the opening post.

Combine Sprint Results: Jon Marsh ran about 2.78 second over 20 metres, second fastest time ever recorded. Nathan Freeman ran 2.81

I liked it as one big massive thread! Was easier to keep track of all the discussions

 

[Sheeza69]

Perhaps "2013 Draft Discussion"? I could change it since I have the opening post.

Combine Sprint Results: Jon Marsh ran about 2.78 second over 20 metres, second fastest time ever recorded. Nathan Freeman ran 2.81

Sheed's result over the 20 mtrs..??

 

[BrianSpeaking]

Sheed still running.