Do you start with Ablett

[Hondo]

and 2) if you AREan Ablett fan, the process could involve 2-4 trades...one to remove him, and 2-3 to get him back in if he is a staple part of your team.

It's important to remember that the trade-out and trade-in of Ablett should only cost the 1 trade. That being the trade out of Ablett.

If you keep your cash spare then the trade to bring him back in is just another premium upgrade you would have done anyway. If not Ablett, it might have been Swan, etc.

The trade out of Ablett just brings the premium upgrade earlier in the season.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

It's important to remember that the trade-out and trade-in of Ablett should only cost the 1 trade. That being the trade out of Ablett.

If you keep your cash spare then the trade to bring him back in is just another premium upgrade you would have done anyway. If not Ablett, it might have been Swan, etc.

The trade out of Ablett just brings the premium upgrade earlier in the season.

Maybe two trades is fair hondo. Yes, 1 trade to remove Ablett, but a second trade to upgrade the other player with your extra cash just made from the Ablett trade. If you don't upgrade another player, you will be losing ground based on Opportunity Cost.

Just an example scenario at start of season:

• You choose Ablett + prem rookie (Martin)
• You choose Selwood + mid range midfielder (Palmer)

If Ablett goes down you trade out Ablett for Selwood/Bartel etc but it leaves you cash. You will then most likely use that cash to upgrade someone. If you don't you have this situation: Selwood + Palmer vs Selwood + Martin. If things hold true based of value, you are still down on points as Palmer (midrange) should beat Martin (prem rookie)... of course you will have cash waiting unused on your bench. You can either wait and lose points or spend it to equalize vs your competitor...this involves a trade.

All semantics as the prem rookie may beat the mid priced midfielder. And I know most people have planned Ablett, Martin and Palmer in their side. The player examples for prem rookie and mid range player are interchangeable for argument purposes.

You can use just 1 trade but you should be down on points if you dont use another trade.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

Lol love that one BlueGibbs "the wife's team will have GAJ". That is an excellent hedging strategy.

Re: Murph - i was really considering him prior to his surgery, not only because of his near flawless season last year, as evidenced by his 30 goals - absolutely stunning return as i was one who felt he had major deficiencies with that at the start of the year.

I guess i am asking u if you will pick him in ur team's mids this year? Loved the synopsis on your team board re SC potential as well!

Word is he should be ok come round 1 but def watch out for him to ensure he is 100% fit. I locked him in from round 1 last year and just loved his consistent 100s. He is the type of sneaky midfielder that can always find space and should fall into the category of 3rd ranked mid in 2010 behind Judd and Gibbs.

However, to start with I'm looking elsewhere due to Judd's 3 week suspension. The risk is that either Murph or Gibbs will cop the main tag and I dont think either 1 can handle it yet. That and the fact that Carlton have a horror 5-6 week stretch of games after round 1.

 

[Walesy]

One consideration with Ablett that people don't seem to think about.

What if he averages 110? Honestly, I don't know if that would be worse than him going down for 3 weeks.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

One consideration with Ablett that people don't seem to think about.

What if he averages 110? Honestly, I don't know if that would be worse than him going down for 3 weeks.

That's why you're a gun Walesy - you always make sense.

More than get injured, there is every chance he just might not be as hungry as last year. The other little thing that may change is that Ablett's teammates worked their arses off trying to 1) get him the ball at any cost, 2) shepherd him clear, and 3) complete the one-two handpass for the sheer sake of it. They did this to support him through a tag and i'm sure to help him improve his possession count and Brownlow hopes as the rightful winner of that medal.

All of these small things could disappear meaning at least a slightly lower average this year ...tho still 120+ lol

 

[deledio_gun]

Or champion data employees might not select him this year, therefore scoring all his 'iffy' contested ball as uncontested meaning a drop in average

 

[lozza63]

Gibbsie there is a chance that Garry and his teammates may not be as motivated this year, Harley gone and all that.

What i believe is that GAJ will want this 2nd Charlie to join the list of Brownlow legs such as Harvey, Greig, Stewart, Reynolds and Bunton as a fellow back to back winner.

Moreover Geelong will want to equal Brissie as the aging unit Scarlett, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens and such aim for triple success.

Now safe in the knowledge of such milestones GAJ should maintain his healthy average - injury permitting!

 

[TheProwler]

He won't be in my side. Not with the likes of Dane Swan (90k less), Dal Santo (130k less), Penndlebury (180k less), Mark Murphy (140k less), Joel Selwood (160k less)....................................etc........................etc.

These players will score well over the season while Ablett ponders his location next year and attempts to shrug off the Brownlow hangover. Am I clutching at straws? Rrecent history shows how a players performance falters following a Brownlow win. You have to go back to Robert Harvey to see someone follow up thier brownlow.

IMO Ablett is not worth the risk and will require minimum two trades to remove if he fails to live up to 09 scores.

For what it's worth (and I had him last year) he was scored too highly and if that is rectified this year his price vs score may also be affected. I can't recall individual games but their was numerous threads on here about his "inflated" scores. Any substance? Only time will tell.

By not having Ablett I can free up 150k to allow me two premium rucks who have the ability to consistantly score 100+ as opposed to the next tier ruck who will likely score me 90 average at best.

My 2c

 

[Hondo]

Maybe two trades is fair hondo. Yes, 1 trade to remove Ablett, but a second trade to upgrade the other player with your extra cash just made from the Ablett trade. If you don't upgrade another player, you will be losing ground based on Opportunity Cost.

You can use just 1 trade but you should be down on points if you dont use another trade.

I agree on the potential opportunity cost of the non-used spare cash but it's still only the 1 trade. If you use the spare Ablett cash on an upgrade that's again an upgrade you would have done later anyway.

If it's a big leap $ wise to get Ablett back then those without him from the start have that same leap to make so it makes no difference.

 

[Hondo]

By not having Ablett I can free up 150k to allow me two premium rucks who have the ability to consistantly score 100+ as opposed to the next tier ruck who will likely score me 90 average at best.

My 2c

So you gain 22 games x 10 points = 220 extra points over the whole year from this better ruckman. You sure that's worth the risk of not having him if he averages 140 again? IMO you make up that difference 2 or 3 times just by having Ablett perma-captained while those without him pour through the stats to guess a captain.

 

[TheProwler]

So you gain 22 games x 10 points = 220 extra points over the whole year from this better ruckman. You sure that's worth the risk of not having him if he averages 140 again? IMO you make up that difference 2 or 3 times just by having Ablett perma-captained while those without him pour through the stats to guess a captain.

Their are pros & cons for each and every player.

Whilst Ablett may average 140 again he just as possible may not. Has he peaked? Is it his turn to battle injury? Will he be scored accurately this year?

Perhaps Dal Santo or Hayes may take another step this year and average 130 and if so negate any percieved loss from not having Ablett.

The extra 150k I allready spoke of allows me to get both Sandi and Cox or Sandi and Clark instead of Sandi and Natanui or Cox & Blake. A win their I reckon

Spreading your budget out instead of all in one basket may give me an edge this year. Then agin it may not. Time will tell that.

 

[Hondo]

Yes, only time will tell. However, i'd want to see more concrete evidence of an imminent scoring dip for GAJ rather than hunches about motivation, Brownlow let-downs etc that are really just hopeful wishes made by those planning not to get him.

Also, if you plan not to get him because you think he might get injured then how can you confidently pick anyone?

 

[fryzie]

Yes, only time will tell. However, i'd want to see more concrete evidence of an imminent scoring dip for GAJ rather than hunches about motivation, Brownlow let-downs etc that are really just hopeful wishes made by those planning not to get him.

Also, if you plan not to get him because you think he might get injured then how can you confidently pick anyone?

Hmm.. Obviously anybody can pick up an injury, but you know that if you pick Chapman you're taking a risk given his history of soft tissue injuries over say a Deledio who has played most of his games over the last few seasons.

In the same vein, Ablett is predisposed to pick up injuries because of his role in the Geelong gameplan, he's constantly in the thick of it, being harassed by taggers and pushing his body to the extreme trying to break tags.

 

[Hondo]

In the same vein, Ablett is predisposed to pick up injuries because of his role in the Geelong gameplan, he's constantly in the thick of it, being harassed by taggers and pushing his body to the extreme trying to break tags.

Same goes for any of the elite midfielders we are targetting for our teams

It's the nature of the beast

 

[fryzie]

Same goes for any of the elite midfielders we are targetting for our teams

It's the nature of the beast

Perhaps, but Ablett is guaranteed to pick up tight tags week after week. Someone like Gibbs is going to be behind Judd and possibly Murphy as well. Same goes for say a Pendlebury who might not get a tag over Swan at the moment. Joel Selwood also.

I know they're all hard at it mids, but Ablett seems to push himself harder than most, which results in his body succumbing to little niggles late in the season in which Geelong put him on ice with September in mind.

If Ablett's intensity drops off a bit it may result in him suffering less injuries, maybe his average would drop to 125 but results in him playing 21-22 games which balances out a touch if he's still scoring well enough to remain an automatic captain choice.

At this point it's all guesswork but that's why we love it.

 

[Hondo]

Yes, no-one has a crystal ball!

On Ablett - there's times when he's let go while the opposition focus on the likes of Selwood and Bartel.

I don't see that his position makes him any more injury prone than any other elite midfielder.

Anyway who knows, he may injure himself in the NAB Cup rendering this debate pointless.

 

[fryzie]

Yes, no-one has a crystal ball!

On Ablett - there's times when he's let go while the opposition focus on the likes of Selwood and Bartel.

I don't see that his position makes him any more injury prone than any other elite midfielder.

Anyway who knows, he may injure himself in the NAB Cup rendering this debate pointless.

I hate seeing blokes get injured but gee it would make my decision easier...

 

[Rik E Boy]

One thing you are forgetting about Gaz is that he gets a lot of protection from guys like Scarlo and Ling. I don't think Selwood for example gets the same level of protection from his team mates. The Cats like to free up Gaz wherever possible and look for him - this is why he averages so much

So here we have a very talented midfield that is looking to give it to him, he uses it well and he rests up forwards these days and kicks goals. This is only the second year of him 'resting' up forward so with this in mind I don't see a dip in his scores this season. Let those who don't have Ablett worry....because they should be.

regards,

REB

 

[Frodo]

Quite correct. Because if He goes forward they have the depth to cover and the oppos can't afford to drop the tag.

My issue will be season end. 22 games + finals is a long season. Short break. This is the fourth for Geelong. My gut feel is that they will drop off at the tail. Still, if they arein your side it is only one trade to change things.

 

[Impromptu]

Hmm.. Obviously anybody can pick up an injury, but you know that if you pick Chapman you're taking a risk given his history of soft tissue injuries over say a Deledio who has played most of his games over the last few seasons.

In the same vein, Ablett is predisposed to pick up injuries because of his role in the Geelong gameplan, he's constantly in the thick of it, being harassed by taggers and pushing his body to the extreme trying to break tags.

The difference is that if Ablett is tagged and so is say Swan and both score the same, then obviously having Swan would be beneficial as first you have the spare $150k and furthermore, there is a higher chance that Ablett would drop in value than Swan...

The only problem is that if Ablett runs riot then it's dangerous... So if you can find anyone in near ballpark as Ablett then you are ahead..

I'm still 50-50..

 

[NT.Thunder]

The fact of the matter is that you have to work with FACTS and not what if's really......

What if Gablett is injured round 1?

What if Gablett is suspended for 5 weeks rnd 1?

All hind sight......You have to work with the facts that Gablett is by far a SC gun compared to any1 else.

By all means dont take him.....and roll the dice, aint no difference to not taking Cox over the last 4-5 years..Last year you may have been able to build a case if you didnt take Cox. But only as long as you didnt include Hille or Ottens in place because if you did the it is a fail also.

If you dont take Gablett, be it at yr own peril, but the runs are on the board so dont cry late in the year stating that Gablett was the difference in winning SC and coming 2nd.

If you think you are going to straight swap a Trengove/Martin for Gablett well I'll LMFA now......It's easily a 3 trade swap......**** with the master and hassle of wondering how you'll trade him in but take my advise....Just get him from start.

If you have played SC before, well lets just say, yr team is built around Gablett.

 

[BigSledge]

This has been good discussion so far. This is my view on the matter.

When at his best he is able to pull out scores that others can't keep up with consistently and If he starts like he did last year you will still probably have a fair advantage over the person who opts to spread his cash around. Even with his starting price I will back myself to pick a balanced side with him around, but if I can't then I'll cut him no ones irreplacable but he is probably the closest to it.

For those saying they won't get him straight up saying they are worried about him getting injured/rested. How long is an acceptable time frame games wise for him to go before getting injured? If it's say mid year and he has averaged 150 like he did last year he could have given my side a 3000 point bonus. Do you guys back yourself to get that many points from your captain/spread cash players by round 10? (which you should) Plus by mid season most teams should have more depth due to the starting to upgrade players coming in/bench quality unless you have been killed by injuries.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

This has been good discussion so far. This is my view on the matter.

When at his best he is able to pull out scores that others can't keep up with consistently and If he starts like he did last year you will still probably have a fair advantage over the person who opts to spread his cash around. Even with his starting price I will back myself to pick a balanced side with him around, but if I can't then I'll cut him no ones irreplacable but he is probably the closest to it.

For those saying they won't get him straight up saying they are worried about him getting injured/rested. How long is an acceptable time frame games wise for him to go before getting injured? If it's say mid year and he has averaged 150 like he did last year he could have given my side a 3000 point bonus. Do you guys back yourself to get that many points from your captain/spread cash players by round 10? (which you should) Plus by mid season most teams should have more depth due to the starting to upgrade players coming in/bench quality unless you have been killed by injuries.

Of course the non Ablett theorists are about what-if scenarios and that they may not happen in reality. The theory is more about overall game strategy and risk vs reward...think of it like a money wheel with ten possible results. 9 x number 1 and 1 x number 2. All smart people if they had to choose a number would choose 1 (The pro Abletts). In a way there is risk vs reward opportunity with Ablett as 9 out of ten SC teams will have him...It may be worth the risk versus the top 2000 teams to simply go the longer shot option and hope Ablett falls over. If the 10% chance comes off (Ablett gets injured) you gain a decent advantage over the 90% of the top 2000 teams (the cream players) and maybe a decent shot of top50 and winning it overall.

It's worth contemplating.

 

[BlueVeins]

One thing's clear. He's the best SC player, you would have him in your team by the end and it is always a gamble to not have him from the start. And anyone that doesn't start with him will always be the ones predicting his downfall, but realistically they will also be the first to jump on here and cheer when Ablett goes down in price early. The smart decision is to get him.

I'm not going to go with him, Judd holds my heart.

 

[stkildathunda]

One thing's clear. He's the best SC player, you would have him in your team by the end and it is always a gamble to not have him from the start. And anyone that doesn't start with him will always be the ones predicting his downfall, but realistically they will also be the first to jump on here and cheer when Ablett goes down in price early. The smart decision is to get him.

I'm not going to go with him, Judd holds my heart.

So you wont start with Ablett, but you will get Judd even though he misses the 1st 3 rounds? Wouldnt that put you behind the 8-ball even more so.