Don't get caught - "The Brennan factor"

[rizzo]

Picture this:

A player is having a break out year and has dominated the first two rounds. You don't have him in your team but you trade one of your stars thinking this player is going to continue on his merry way scoring 100's. Slowly his scores drop. Round 3 he scores 90, Round 4 he picks up an average 60, and from then on its 50's. Your blood boils, frustrated you have to waste another precious trade to get him out of your team. The fact is that you have been hit with the Brennan Factor.

The Brennan Factor happens every year, and thousands of people always get caught out. But why?? Surely there is something we can do to stop this evil in Supercoach and DreamTeam from ruining our dreams.


The phenomenon I like to call the "Brennan Factor", Is when a player has a blinder two rounds, and is dirt cheap. However the player then slides as soon as you put him in your team and you are cursed with poor performances until you can trade him out.

It is named after the master, Jared Brennan, who over his career has cost SCer's and DTer's thousands of dollars and heaps of trades.

While the temptation of a cheap player scoring at the same price as a 400k player is great, the fact is not many players indeed continue on.

It is after round 2 that this really has an effect on players and it is now that you have to be extra careful not to get caught out, or you will be forever wasting money and trades to get them out of your team.

So... What do you look out for so you don't get caught out again and again and again?

I have compiled a list of things you should look out for before you indeed trade that cheap star in.

1. Past History
History is everything in Fantasy Football, especially when trying to avoid the Brennan factor. You should look and see if this scoring has come out of the blue and if they have had a history of doing a Brennan Before.


It can also be used to see if a player has had a steady rise in scoring. if this is the case a Brennan is less likely as history has shown they have made increases in their scoring capacity.

www.fanfooty.com.au is the best source to find a players scoring history.

2. Consistency
Is this player a consistent scorer or are they having a purple patch? Again look at their past scores, if they have been inconsistent, this player is most likely having a purple patch.

3. Role in the team
Is this player likely to be moved around? Just because he has played well at FF doesn't mean he won't be moved back to his poor scoring days at FB. If in doubt, don't select.

4. New Player
The best thing is to keep away from new players who has started well. Even though your bench players may not be keeping up in scoring terms, to trade a bench player out is just a waste. It's better to miss the boat totally and save some trades.

You also will find that they are inconsistent in their scoring, so a few weeks pulling low scores can be as frustrating as hell.

Finally, here are some players I suspect will become Brennan Factors

Super Coach:

Backs:

Brett Thornton
Current Avg: 126
'07 Avg: 75

Michel Osbourne
Current Avg: 117
'07 Avg: 56

Nathan Bock
Current Avg: 121
'07 Avg: 73


Centers:

Joel MacDonald
Current Avg: 116
'07 Avg: 74

Travis Tuck
Current Avg: 85
'07 Avg: 35

James Kelly
Current Avg: 112
'07 Avg: 78

Forwards

Josh Hill
Current Avg: 109
'07 Avg: 19

Paul Medhurst
Current Avg: 102
'07 Avg: 60

Matt Campbell
Current Avg: 101
'07 Avg: 49

Dream Team:

Backs:

Nathan Carrol
Current Avg: 84
'07 Avg: 52

Leo Barry
Current Avg: 84
'07 Avg: 66

Josh Hunt
Current Avg: 76
'07 Avg: 64

Centers:

Bryce Gibbs
Current Avg: 83
'07 Avg: 58

Jarrad McVeigh
Current Avg: 80
'07 Avg: 60

Forwards

Stuart Dew
Current Avg: 85
'07 Avg: 62

Warren Tredrea
Current Avg: 76
'07 Avg: 57

Lindsay Thomas
Current Avg: 73
'07 Avg: 45

http://www.aflchat.com.au/supercoach-dt-the-brennan-factor-dont-get-caught-again/

Thoughts/opinions??

 

[footyfan_25]

I agree in many ways but he way I look at the trade i'm considering is as follows.

Aker for Hill ...

Frees up approx 300k

Hill should make at least 150k over next 3-4 weeks.

Aker doing nothing special ... Hill looks promising.

Therefore I will make around 450k and worst case it will cost me 2 trades if Hill is no good (or potentially 1 if he keeps up his form).

 

[lamaros]

You should follow your own advice. A lot of those you list are increasing for a reason, even if a bit overinflated.

 

[duckboy]

Agree with the previous post. Argument is all over the place. Gibbs, Tuck and Hill for example are first or second year types whose roles are growing and increasing. In the case of Tuck and Hill, they played one game each last year for the quoted values, so pull your ____ing finger out and do some real research.

 

[oaks]

I agree in many ways but he way I look at the trade i'm considering is as follows.

Aker for Hill ...

Frees up approx 300k

Hill should make at least 150k over next 3-4 weeks.

Aker doing nothing special ... Hill looks promising.

Therefore I will make around 450k and worst case it will cost me 2 trades if Hill is no good (or potentially 1 if he keeps up his form).

u really didnt get the message there...its better to miss the boat and not waste trades. trading aka out is stupid keep him. j hill aint going 2 b good 4 ever. why would you pick aka in ur side anyway he is a dud

 

[rizzo]

Agree with the previous post. Argument is all over the place. Gibbs, Tuck and Hill for example are first or second year types whose roles are growing and increasing. In the case of Tuck and Hill, they played one game each last year for the quoted values, so pull your ____ing finger out and do some real research.

Did you read the whole post fool?

If you read it you would see i was talking about people downgrading players . trading players to get them into your team.

If you picked em from the start well done!

 

[TheWiseOne]

Travis Tuck
Current Avg: 85
'07 Avg: 35

Tuck only played 1 game last yea so its a bit misleading to have his 07 average he is good for his price.. I will take 80 everyweek for his price with the odd 100+ score..

 

[footyfan_25]

u really didnt get the message there...its better to miss the boat and not waste trades. trading aka out is stupid keep him. j hill aint going 2 b good 4 ever. why would you pick aka in ur side anyway he is a dud

Each to their own. We will see.

Aker ... well pre-season sucked me in.

 

[duckboy]

Did you read the whole post fool?

If you read it you would see i was talking about people downgrading players . trading players to get them into your team.

If you picked em from the start well done!

No, you labelled them "Brennan factor" candidates. Your point about Brennan types is valid, but your assessment of those that qualify is ordinary. Trading for anyone under your "Brennan criterion" is more the point. Upgrades need to be to A grade elites, not to high-performing b, c graders or rookies.

 

[bailz66]

Each to their own. We will see.

Aker ... well pre-season sucked me in.

I got Aker in based on the pre-season. Im not happy with his results but im not disapointed either.

I put him down for at least 80 a round with the occational 100

So far been about on the money and he looks better each week

Time will tell

 

[Flashhh]

How exaclty does Stuart Dew, the man who retired at the end of '06 and came back in '08, have a 2007 average?

Also Travis Tuck only played one game last year, as someone mentioned above.

 

[oaks]

this is great it should be stickied

 

[Rhino5]

Does Roughead qualify here or is he going to keep it up?

 

[swansfan51]

Roughead might be more of a chance to keep up his form - he's 21 now with 3 seasons behind him at Hawthorn, has developed more strength and fitness and is more of a target this year, in a team that is getting solid numbers of possessions and will get the ball forward a lot.

 

[rizzo]

How exaclty does Stuart Dew, the man who retired at the end of '06 and came back in '08, have a 2007 average?

Also Travis Tuck only played one game last year, as someone mentioned above.

Its called a typo. Surely u can comprehend that it was meant to be his last season of afl.

However it could also be the average amount of Mcdonalds he ate per week while in retirement. Either way he is a brennan

 

[fraser25]

traded in james kelly, think i got sucked in by the looks of his score this week.

im comforted slightly by the fact that he doesn't have that many people on the bandwagon.