Drafting success rates

[newlander77]

I was reading an article in the Herald Sun where an analyst created a formula to assess the draft success rates for AFL clubs between 2004-2007. This doesn't take into account player trades. We ranked 15th in that period.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/demons-rule-draft/story-e6frf9jf-1225827457502

So looking back at our draft success rates in 2004 and beyond it makes for some painful reading until 2007 where there was clearly a line written in the sand. Between 2004-2006 there is just 4 players remaining on our list today.

I take my hat off to the current recruiting staff.

2004 Draft
59 Benet Copping (0 Games)
67 Toby Stribling (0 Games)

2005 Pre-Season Draft
5 Jarrad Schofield (12 Games)

2005 Rookie Draft
51 Steven Dodd (98 Games)
26 Dylan Smith (10 Games)

2005 Draft
10 Marcus Drum (22 Games)
26 Garrick Ibbotson (42 Games)
42 Robert Warnock (21 Games)

2006 Rookie Draft
7 Paul Duffield (45 Games)
23 Toby Stribling (0 Games)

2006 Draft
31 Clayton Collard (1 Game)
52 Brock O'Brien (3 Games)
77 Calib Mourish (0 Games)

2007 Rookie Draft
13 Chris Smith (0 Games)
28 Andrew Foster (9 Games)
42 Darren Rumble (0 Games)
53 Benet Copping (0 Games)

2007 Draft
7 Rhys Palmer (25 Games)
24 Clayton Hinkley (13 Games)
40 Chris Mayne (22 Games)
55 Mark Johnson (14 Games)
69 Kepler Bradley (24 Games)

2008 Pre-Season Draft
6 Joshua Head (9 Games)

2008 Rookie Draft
6 Brent Connolly (0 Games)
22 Luke Pratt (1 Game)
37 Calib Mourish (0 Games)
50 Ryley Dunn (8 Games)

2008 Draft
3 Stephen Hill (22 Games)
21 Hayden Ballantyne (8 Games)
24 Nic Suban (22 Games)
37 Zac Clarke (5 Games)
53 Michael Walters (3 Games)
56 Ben Bucovaz (0 Games)
68 Tim Ruffles (3 Games)
77 Chris Hall (0 Games)

2009 Rookie Draft
3 Casey Sibosado (0 Games)
19 Matthew DeBoer (17 Games)
34 Hamish Shepheard (0 Games)
48 Clancee Pearce (8 Games)
62 Jay van Berlo (4 Games)
74 Greg Broughton (15 Games)

2009 Draft
4 Anthony Morabito
20 Nathan Fyfe
36 Joel Houghton
48 Jesse Chrichton
49 Dylan Roberton
52 Justin Bollenhagen

2010 Pre-season Draft
3 Adam McPhee

2010 Rookie Draft
8 Michael Barlow
24 Alex Silvagni

 

[Clay Davis]

2006 was an abomination, and that bloke's analysis is just about right concerning where we're at.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Question is.. how are they basing it? Games played or actual performances? because Melbourne has been abismal for a few years so they've had to play those youngsters because they had nothing better.

 

[Belnakor]

the 2008 rookie draft was a disaster

 

[Bradesmaen]

the 2008 rookie draft was a disaster

Theres barely anyone from that Rookie draft left for any team. Melbourne has 2 left, Crows have 1 ,the Kangas have 1, Hawks have 1 and Weagles have 2.

 

[Clay Davis]

Rookie drafts are gambles anyway. The fact we have nothing to show from 2004 and 2006 is the real killer.

 

[Invigoration]

Theres barely anyone from that Rookie draft left for any team. Melbourne has 2 left, Crows have 1 ,the Kangas have 1, Hawks have 1 and Weagles have 2.

I think you must be looking at the wrong draft because there is like 40 kids from the '08 rookie draft still on lists

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

I did some analysis on draft success v win % back in 2008 (at the time, showing why we were statistically 3 years off challenging for a premiership) on another board which unfortunately no longer exists, but the basic gist was:

5 players 50+ games in one draft required for top 8.
8 players 50+ games in two drafts required for top 4.
18 players 50+ games in four drafts required for premiership.

and the most interesting:

3 players 20-50 games within last two drafts.

There wasn't any distinction between 'new' draftees or mature-agers - just a definite "line" between those that did, and didn't compete.

For Geelong, it was their 97-01 grouping that drives their success now - suggesting a "lead time" of about 7 years (18+7=25=playing prime...makes sense). Selwood their biggest 'boost' player.

For Hawthorn, our timeline starts in 01, but really it's the 04/05/06 drafts that should drive us up.

I don't know Freo well enough to comment, which draft is your "block" of players from?

 

[Bradesmaen]

I think you must be looking at the wrong draft because there is like 40 kids from the '08 rookie draft still on lists

Nah, I think I just skipped a few players in my head. So add about another 10 players, but theres a few on there that wouldn't be getting games if their teams weren't so shit.

 

[Invigoration]

Nah, I think I just skipped a few players in my head. So add about another 10 players, but theres a few on there that wouldn't be getting games if their teams weren't so shit.

A few = 38?

 

[newlander77]

I don't know Freo well enough to comment, which draft is your "block" of players from?

23 players on our current list were drafted in the last 2 years.

 

[Bradesmaen]

A few = 38?

More like 26? 25 if you discount repicks (McQualter)

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Thanks Newlander...sounds like you're pretty much at "ground zero".

How old is 211....26? He's probably the key to build your side around for a fair while yet. Does Harvey have the time to rebuild though? He seems to have been there a long time for not much, will he get another 3-4 years of little/no finals?

 

[Lach72]

Thanks Newlander...sounds like you're pretty much at "ground zero".

How old is 211....26? He's probably the key to build your side around for a fair while yet. Does Harvey have the time to rebuild though? He seems to have been there a long time for not much, will he get another 3-4 years of little/no finals?

8-9 wins and a reduction in beltings and losses to Melbourne will get him another contract, I feel

 

[Bradesmaen]

Thanks Newlander...sounds like you're pretty much at "ground zero".

How old is 211....26? He's probably the key to build your side around for a fair while yet. Does Harvey have the time to rebuild though? He seems to have been there a long time for not much, will he get another 3-4 years of little/no finals?

Well, takes 5-6 years for a Rebuild to work imo and that started 2 years ago, will so Pav will be 30, Sandi 29 - thats not too old. In todays world of youth fetishes it is, but just look at the age of some key players for Geelong in their two premierships.

 

[Invigoration]

More like 26? 25 if you discount repicks (McQualter)

I think I'll stick with 38 (45 in total), especially seeing as McQualter was re-rookied in '07.

35 blokes if you discount repicks like Pfeiffer, Bentley and Dawson.

 

[NiceCunnington]

The confusion is because the bloke in the OP got his years wrong. You are talking about the 08 Rookie draft the other bloke is talking about the 07 Rookie draft.

 

[Bradesmaen]

I think I'll stick with 38 (45 in total), especially seeing as McQualter was re-rookied in '07.

35 blokes if you discount repicks like Pfeiffer, Bentley and Dawson.

Dawson? Bentley? Umm, you're looking at the wrong draft mate.

 

[Clay Davis]

The confusion is because the bloke in the OP got his years wrong. You are talking about the 08 Rookie draft the other bloke is talking about the 07 Rookie draft.

Yep. We did quite well out of the 2008 rookie draft.

 

[Bradesmaen]

The timing got confused because at one point the Rookie draft and Pre-season draft used to occur in the new year from memory. Now the Rookie draft is the same year as the National Draft.

 

[Invigoration]

Dawson? Bentley? Umm, you're looking at the wrong draft mate.

the 2008 rookie draft was a disaster

NC is right, obviously a mix up from the OP's post, but Dawson and Bentley etc are all 2008.

 

[Dormammu]

8-9 wins and a reduction in beltings and losses to Melbourne will get him another contract, I feel

This.

And probably add Richmond as well.

 

[Bad Brain]

Some of you may enjoy this link which is all about Freo being investigated by the AFL for drafting too well in 2006. Made me giggle anyway.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-284796.html

 

[Lach72]

Some of you may enjoy this link which is all about Freo being investigated by the AFL for drafting too well in 2006. Made me giggle anyway.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-284796.html

They did well, but not that well. Time will tell of course

Lulz...do tell Keyser

 

[Dormammu]

Some of you may enjoy this link which is all about Freo being investigated by the AFL for drafting too well in 2006. Made me giggle anyway.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-284796.html

Got a chuckle from me too.