Essendon: 2014 Season Preview

[citizen-erased]

Nice writeup.
Howlett will be interesting. He was apparently quite unwell at the end of the year and his form dropped off very suddenly. But was a strong performer early on.
Daniher obviously needs time and I don't mind having Hurley/Carlisle taking up the CHF/CHB positions and Belly being our main marking target. Ryder is also a very decent forward if need be. the losses of Crameri and Gumbleton are having a little much made out of them. Esp if Chappy can get through most the year.

Pears v Dalgleish, Kavanagh v Colyer, plus the new recruits is going to be interesting.

Big steps for us this year will be beating a couple of bogey teams in North and the Hawks, and not getting absolutely pantsed by the Cats when their kids put a show on in 2013.

But if 2013 was anything to go by, we should be aiming for top 6 minimum and probably top 4 really.
Our defence is solid, rucks are good and the midfield has depth and class.
Big question comes down to addressing our forward line issues. Looking forward to a season where premiership points/finals spots aren't in question.

 

[DonkeyKong21]

My analysis isn't as comprehensive as yours, and I focused just on the moves made and players drafted. If you could give me some feedback it would be appreciated, cheers!
http://www.unambitiousus.com/sports/your-guide-to-the-2013-afl-offseason-essendon-fremantle/

 

[BrunoV]

It will be an interesting start to the year that's for sure. Where are expectations? In my mind there seems to be a lot of talk here about top 4.

I would have though that top 8 and our first successful final in 10 or so years is about all that is realistic. Think that a kind draw in the middle half of last year papered over cracks to keep us in the hunt longer than we should have been.

We're also looking at a reversal of the usual pattern meaning that we in for a slow start. This is largely because really important players are not yet up and running meaning that a lot of the improvements we've been waiting for to address our main weakness won't have been tested in match conditions.

Not sure of the wisdom of keeping Myers and Melksham from the NAB practices matches when their history shows them to be slow starters and they're supposed to by the way in which we upgrade to something closer to a dynamic clearance unit and they're also the guys we want kicking to leading forwards.

It's also tough to get a read on whether we are actually capable of matching it with the clearance machines of the type Port and Gold Coast have. It is almost certain that none of the young brigade (i.e. Merrett, Kav and below) will be good enough in 2014 and the same old does struggle to win meaningful clearances against these powerful midfields.

Best forwardline will struggle to get on the park and will have no chemistry if the players manage to end up in the same team. Daniher being a freak for a half aside so far there is really no difference to the usual crap served up last year.

It's going to take a while to get the sort of chemistry required to deal with a difficult start to the year and it's always harder to make up ground than it is to hold on while front running.

 

[hurlygurdy]

It will be an interesting start to the year that's for sure. Where are expectations? In my mind there seems to be a lot of talk here about top 4.

I would have though that top 8 and our first successful final in 10 or so years is about all that is realistic. Think that a kind draw in the middle half of last year papered over cracks to keep us in the hunt longer than we should have been.

We're also looking at a reversal of the usual pattern meaning that we in for a slow start. This is largely because really important players are not yet up and running meaning that a lot of the improvements we've been waiting for to address our main weakness won't have been tested in match conditions.

Not sure of the wisdom of keeping Myers and Melksham from the NAB practices matches when their history shows them to be slow starters and they're supposed to by the way in which we upgrade to something closer to a dynamic clearance unit and they're also the guys we want kicking to leading forwards.

It's also tough to get a read on whether we are actually capable of matching it with the clearance machines of the type Port and Gold Coast have. It is almost certain that none of the young brigade (i.e. Merrett, Kav and below) will be good enough in 2014 and the same old does struggle to win meaningful clearances against these powerful midfields.

Best forwardline will struggle to get on the park and will have no chemistry if the players manage to end up in the same team. Daniher being a freak for a half aside so far there is really no difference to the usual crap served up last year.

It's going to take a while to get the sort of chemistry required to deal with a difficult start to the year and it's always harder to make up ground than it is to hold on while front running.

Nice and cynical, i like it.

Spot on with all those possibilities, but dare i say it, i think that you are describing a poor outcome from where we are at right now...
I will go through your points top to bottom.
1. Given the insanity of last season, there is almost no use basing any sort of prediction on the outcomes of 2013. I'm inclined to keep it very general and suggest that we know quite a few players took good steps forward and we know we can play top shelf football.
2. I'm not convinced we are in for a slow start. Instead i would suggest that we play good football until we are genuinely fatigued. We wont be genuinely fatigued at the start of the season.
3. Don't see how Melksham is a slow starter. It's more a question of whether he continues at the new level he set last year. You might be right about Myers, i'm not sure.
4. Clearances will also be influenced by the form of Howlett and will potentially be impacted by Chappy against the top sides. I can see him being thrown into the midfield against the Hawks for sure. From what i saw of Howlett in the NAB games, he looks back to his best. Looks really strong and confident. I would also still back one of the young guys to step up at some point in the season. There's so damn many of them! Surely one will be ready.
5. Guess you are referring to Licka and potentially Chappy? It's a fair point, but i'm still basking in the glory of JD. He and Carlisle are going to be a nightmare to match up on... Port would not have been able to shut him out like they did if Carlisle had been there. Dare i say it, but the contract that has been given to Kommer has lifted my hopes for his impact this year enormously. If he can effect the contest this year in the way that he threatened to last year, then things might start to click for our structure. With TBC in the wings, Steinberg making progress, Z Merrett and NOB showing good signs, things aren't all doom and gloom just yet. We should also perhaps be grateful that Licka had his injury now instead of in the season proper. He would be a great chance to be back for round 2 and might fare better with the lightening of the training load as the season gets underway.
6. The guys are psychological rocks. After enduring last year, coming back from a poor start to the season is chicken feed. And regardless, i saw enough signs against port that they are not far off.

So that is the cup is half full version

 

[JETTA7]

Good Write up! Except for when you said Colyer has good skills... couldn't hit a target if his life depended on it.

 

[ghostdog]

Nice and cynical, i like it.


Don't see how Melksham is a slow starter. It's more a question of whether he continues at the new level he set last year.

He started slowly last year. I remember. I said that Kommer was playing better footy, such was my frustration. It wasn't a very smart comment. If he starts at the same level he set last year and steps up again he'll star.

 

[hurlygurdy]

He started slowly last year. I remember. I said that Kommer was playing better footy, such was my frustration. It wasn't a very smart comment. If he starts at the same level he set last year and steps up again he'll star.

Perhaps i should have extrapolated on my Melksham comment. I would not say he is a slow starter based on last year because he took his game to a whole new level that had nothing to do with the time of the season.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

OP is still a massive bellend.

 

[efcboy]

Melksham is out suspended for rounds 1 & 2 so it makes sense to have his training/match load 2 weeks behind others.

Myers has a history of injuries in pre-seasons so they are taking a cautious approach with him.