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Expectations for 2026

  • Thread starter Thread starter Tugga27
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The game is always fast in the first few rounds and everyone gets excited by high scoring shoot outs. It’ll calm down as defences adjust.

An early concern for me is that the game has become so easy to transition (stand rule, last kick out of bounce etc) that flooding back is the best tactic. Regularly seeing 17 players behind the ball and the team with the ball pass around unopposed in their backline. Soccer-like…
 

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I cannot help but feel that there is some pain and suffering to come this year. In many ways even worse than 2025.

I think we will suffer against teams that move the ball quickly and accurately. Look at Hawks vs. Ess. Tore them apart and put on 7-8 goals in a row like bang bang bang.
Hawks, GC etc. could kill us by 100+.

Despite what's to come I think we have made a big impact in turning over the list; a turnover that was absolutely required. Just need to keep people from leaving and could have an exceptional group in 3-4 years. Note that GC got Anderson and Rowell in 2019 and while they've been good for years, only recently have they become the scary dynamic duo that no-one wants to come up against.
Yep - if you take this year as Gold Coast 2020, we start to get pretty good in 2029 and probably make our big leap up to benchmark team in 2030 (just in time to win our 12 year flag).

On a serious note, if that did happen, the following current kids will be:

Hough 27 years old
Ginbey, Hewett 26 years old
H. Reid, A.Reid 25 years old
Shannahan, A Allen 24 years old
X Duursma, CDT, Lindsay 23 years old

If they develop at the trajectory we hope (even assuming Hewett and Allen are just role players), that's the core of a balanced team with a strong spine, two great mids and some great HBs. The rest of the team will be padded out by role players and seniors (Waterman, Baker, Starc should still be around and able to perform).
 
I can't see any team we could beat under normal circumstances, Rihcmond would be the closest but they looked reasonable the other night. Norths have gone well passed us but I'm hoping we can snag our first win around round 7 or 9.
 
Comparing results from last year:

• Gold Coast
R1 (H) - 7.7(49) to 20.16(136)
R1 (A) - 10.12(72) to 20.11(131)

Still a heavy loss but 59 points away is better than 87 points at home. Importantly, whereas we saw a 45 point halftime deficit blowout further last year, we were able to have a small second half win to reduce a 62 point deficit to 59 at the end

• North Melbourne
R14 (“A”) - 6.16(52) to 9.8(62)
R2 (H) - 17.9(111) to 15.4(94)

Converted a 10 point loss into a 17 point win

• Port Adelaide
R19 (A) - 9.7(61) to 12.15(87)
R3 (A) - 13.14(92) to 13.12(90)

Converted a 26 point loss into a 2 point win

In both those losses we squandered a 3/4 time lead to lose the match but whilst being outscored in the final quarter the last two weeks, we were able to hold on to win

Overall, we’ve improved our results against the same opponent by 28, 27 and 28 points from last season. If we can repeat that level of improvement across the season from last year’s matches we’ll be on track for 7-8 wins and a percentage north of 80. That would be a successful season and something to build on in 2027
 
Comparing results from last year:

• Gold Coast
R1 (H) - 7.7(49) to 20.16(136)
R1 (A) - 10.12(72) to 20.11(131)

Still a heavy loss but 59 points away is better than 87 points at home. Importantly, whereas we saw a 45 point halftime deficit blowout further last year, we were able to have a small second half win to reduce a 62 point deficit to 59 at the end

• North Melbourne
R14 (“A”) - 6.16(52) to 9.8(62)
R2 (H) - 17.9(111) to 15.4(94)

Converted a 10 point loss into a 17 point win

• Port Adelaide
R19 (A) - 9.7(61) to 12.15(87)
R3 (A) - 13.14(92) to 13.12(90)

Converted a 26 point loss into a 2 point win

In both those losses we squandered a 3/4 time lead to lose the match but whilst being outscored in the final quarter the last two weeks, we were able to hold on to win

Overall, we’ve improved our results against the same opponent by 28, 27 and 28 points from last season. If we can repeat that level of improvement across the season from last year’s matches we’ll be on track for 7-8 wins and a percentage north of 80. That would be a successful season and something to build on in 2027
It's never linear like that though. This is a young team just learning how to play together. At the moment they haven't been able to get the starts right and have effectively been playing three quarters only. That's good enough to just beat bottom 4 teams (North and Port) but once they click they will blow them away by 5-10 goals.

I think it comes together in the next week or two. Once it does, the team will crush the odd basket case, beat mid table teams and match it with the odd top side. Wouldn't surprise me if we beat 1 or 2 of the next 3 and end up with 10-14 wins for the year (likely taking one of the away wildcard spots).
 

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