I reckon our 22 will do us proud today. Here's why"
1. Run in to the finals
Since geelong in round 17, hawthorn have played WCE, Richmond, Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, a pathetic Bulldogs and Saints. They haven't had a real tough hard hit out for over two months and have handed out numerous belting to ordinary sides. Incidently, aside from the Richmond game, in the past 2 months I don't think the hawks would remember what it is like to be 20 points down in a real struggle. The cats on the other hand have had Sydney, North Melbourne and a Doggies side that turned up, all of whom threw everything at them. The cats are ready for more hits, more tackles and more tough footy, it's what they are accustomed to. The Hawks are used to burning off teams by half time- it will be a new experience for them to face a side that is as competitive in the 4th quarter as they are in the first.
2. Passengers
When you're playing like millionaires, thumping crap like WCE and Essendon, your bottom six look fantastic. It hides your passengers and the players that are carried. For Geelong in the ninties, we had passengers and they got showed up in tough games, especially grand finals. Hawthorn are in good form, but I reckon a few of their players (4-5) have been carried a bit and will be exposed today in a real tight contest, losing the one on one duels and coughing up footy.
3. Four quarter players
Similar to the point above, guys like Dew and Crawford can look fantastic when the side is 55 points up and the game is over. But in a tight struggle on a warm grand final day you need a four quarter effort. Craf is 34 with knee tendonitis and isn't as durable as he used to be. Dew is strong, but overweight and I seriously query his capacity to run out a tough match. I reckon both these guys will be sucking in the air come 3/4 time and will be on the pine.
4. Midfield Vs Midfield
Again, the Hawks have not been up against a star midfield line like our own all season. No Ablett or Ling when we last met. Mitchell and co have been playing fantastic footy, but again, the majority of the time they have been 10 goals up with their opponents requiring next to no accountability. Mitchell has not had a solid tag in a long time- how long will it take for him to adjust today? He leads Hawks in contested possies, kicks and clearances and will be missed if he is subdued by the big red machine. I think the Hawthorn midfied is excellent as a whole, but fall away quickly when one of them is curbed. However, anyone of Ablett, Bartel, Corey or Selwood can earn best on ground and be a matchwinner if the Hawks don't play tight for four quarters, something they haven't had to do for 2 months. Last time under pressure they showed they will cough the ball up. It will happen again.
5. Rucks
That Hawthorn is considering playing an 8 gamer in the ruck is a great thing for the cats. Renouf is a talented young player, but he will not have the match conditioning to run out a tough 4 quarters against Ottens and despite his short comings, Mark Blake, who has shown the difference a few preseasons can make. I think after ball-up after ball-up, all over the ground, this kid will get pretty tired and become a passenger. We've seen Ottens grind out the tough ones (Collingwood in the '07 prelim) and Blake is a very good runner. I reckon we will win the ruck duel. Taylor is also out of match fitness (Hawk fans say he always needs a few games to get into it) so even if he does play, I'm hopeful.
They're my thoughts folks. I'm off to the game. May the Greatest Team of All win!!!
1. Run in to the finals
Since geelong in round 17, hawthorn have played WCE, Richmond, Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, a pathetic Bulldogs and Saints. They haven't had a real tough hard hit out for over two months and have handed out numerous belting to ordinary sides. Incidently, aside from the Richmond game, in the past 2 months I don't think the hawks would remember what it is like to be 20 points down in a real struggle. The cats on the other hand have had Sydney, North Melbourne and a Doggies side that turned up, all of whom threw everything at them. The cats are ready for more hits, more tackles and more tough footy, it's what they are accustomed to. The Hawks are used to burning off teams by half time- it will be a new experience for them to face a side that is as competitive in the 4th quarter as they are in the first.
2. Passengers
When you're playing like millionaires, thumping crap like WCE and Essendon, your bottom six look fantastic. It hides your passengers and the players that are carried. For Geelong in the ninties, we had passengers and they got showed up in tough games, especially grand finals. Hawthorn are in good form, but I reckon a few of their players (4-5) have been carried a bit and will be exposed today in a real tight contest, losing the one on one duels and coughing up footy.
3. Four quarter players
Similar to the point above, guys like Dew and Crawford can look fantastic when the side is 55 points up and the game is over. But in a tight struggle on a warm grand final day you need a four quarter effort. Craf is 34 with knee tendonitis and isn't as durable as he used to be. Dew is strong, but overweight and I seriously query his capacity to run out a tough match. I reckon both these guys will be sucking in the air come 3/4 time and will be on the pine.
4. Midfield Vs Midfield
Again, the Hawks have not been up against a star midfield line like our own all season. No Ablett or Ling when we last met. Mitchell and co have been playing fantastic footy, but again, the majority of the time they have been 10 goals up with their opponents requiring next to no accountability. Mitchell has not had a solid tag in a long time- how long will it take for him to adjust today? He leads Hawks in contested possies, kicks and clearances and will be missed if he is subdued by the big red machine. I think the Hawthorn midfied is excellent as a whole, but fall away quickly when one of them is curbed. However, anyone of Ablett, Bartel, Corey or Selwood can earn best on ground and be a matchwinner if the Hawks don't play tight for four quarters, something they haven't had to do for 2 months. Last time under pressure they showed they will cough the ball up. It will happen again.
5. Rucks
That Hawthorn is considering playing an 8 gamer in the ruck is a great thing for the cats. Renouf is a talented young player, but he will not have the match conditioning to run out a tough 4 quarters against Ottens and despite his short comings, Mark Blake, who has shown the difference a few preseasons can make. I think after ball-up after ball-up, all over the ground, this kid will get pretty tired and become a passenger. We've seen Ottens grind out the tough ones (Collingwood in the '07 prelim) and Blake is a very good runner. I reckon we will win the ruck duel. Taylor is also out of match fitness (Hawk fans say he always needs a few games to get into it) so even if he does play, I'm hopeful.
They're my thoughts folks. I'm off to the game. May the Greatest Team of All win!!!
