Finals hopes

[legend166]

I don't know why I keep doing this to myself, but we're still in with a hope.

Port look terrible at the moment against Freo. Freo up by 32 nearing half time. For the sake of this thread, let's assume they lose (this will come back and bite me).

Now, if (a big if) we win next week and the following happens:

Carlton beat Port at AAMI
St Kilda beat Essendon at Etihad

We'll be in the 8.


What's actually annoying is that if we won last week, we'd be in the 8 now, rather than relying on other results.

 

[vonn]

i actually dont want to play finals, it's obvious we dont deserve it and were gonna get smashed first week because if we finish 7 or 8 then we vs either adelaide or brisbane or collingwood

its a great result what weve done with the youth but i think we shud let them hav a full pre season and smash em all next year, not make up the numbers for this years.

 

[Ed_Gein]

Can't say i want us playing finals this year. The highest we can finish this year is 8th and would more than likely get beaten in the 1st week.

Would rather see us win in rd 22 and see off O'Loughlin in style.

 

[MC Bad Genius]

Are the finals still within reach?

I'm at work tonight and I'm getting the score updates from the Freo-Port game and if Port continue to play like they are, they will get smashed and open up a TINY crack of daylight for the Swans to sneak into the finals.

Obviously we still would need to win our last 3 games (Geelong (h), Collingwood (a) and Brisbane), which is an extremely hard ask.

But the other teams in the running don't have great runs home either:

Port Adelaide - Carlton (h), Brisbane (a), North Melbourne (h)
Essendon - St Kilda (h), Fremantle (a), Hawthorn (a)
Hawthorn - Adelaide (h), Richmond (a), Essendon (h)

I guess Port has the easiest run home, but they are so hot-and-cold, you never know what is going to happen. If we win all our games and Port drops one, we'll beat them on percentage.

But if Essendon wins all their games, we are screwed (because they have the draw up their sleeve).

So what do you think - do we still have a genuine chance?

 

[grimlock]

Win, lose or draw if we keep playing like we have in the last 2 weeks then I don't really care whether we make it. It would be nice to play in a final or two, but we are no chance of winning the flag and it's the medium to longer term outlook that should be at the forefront of our planning.

 

[alex4445]

I think it would be good experience for the young guys to play a final even if we are beaten convincingly they should learn something from it.

 

[MC Bad Genius]

Dang it - I just started a thread on this as well.

 

[Stevie Ray Swan]

yep 2011-2013 finals will be awesome

 

[MC Bad Genius]

i actually dont want to play finals, it's obvious we dont deserve it and were gonna get smashed first week because if we finish 7 or 8 then we vs either adelaide or brisbane or collingwood

its a great result what weve done with the youth but i think we shud let them hav a full pre season and smash em all next year, not make up the numbers for this years.

I don't understand this at all. First things first, EVERY team that makes the finals deserves to be there. And to make the finals, we have to 3 teams that are already in the top 8, so obviously it means we can cut it.

And why wouldn't you want to make the finals? As I said before, if we make it in, we have to beat two of the 3 teams you listed that we would probably come up against.

I'm pretty sure that even if we make the finals and get smashed, it is a MUCH better learning curve for our young players than sitting at home and watching it on tele. For one thing, it will give them a chance to see how the tempo steps up a notch.

PLUS ... if we are in the finals, we are still in with a shot of the premiership. I know its close to impossible, but its 100% more possible than finishing outside of the finals!

 

[Ed_Gein]

Re: Are the finals still within reach?

We have a tough run though ourselves. Pretty comparables to Essendon actually.

Geelong are no mugs and are 2nd for a reason. But, they have been shaky!
Collingwood have the mozz on us, haven't beaten them in a while and they had a brilliant win over in Adelaide yesterday.
Brisbane have been great all year, so that will be tough too.

Don't think we'll make it despite it still being mathematically possible.

 

[Rhino5]

I reckon if Port makes it, they won't be deserving....

But on topic, I don't think we can realistically do it. Even though Geelong are shaky right now, it's a big ask to expect a win there. Basically we have to beat the Pies to have a shot and that hasn't happened in a while. I for one would love us to make it - great experience for the kids and, if we played the Lions or the Crows, I wouldn't rule us out, even away from home. They aren't world beaters. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we'd be sacrificing a high draft pick either by making it - wouldn't we be picking in the mid teens vs maybe 10th or 11th? There are no can't miss players around there.

 

[legend166]

You people that don't want to play finals are insane. Insane. Getting finals experience into guys like Hannebery, Smith, O'Dwyer, White, Grundy (hasn't played a final), Pyke, Barlow, etc is huge. It helps to speed up their development. They'll know exactly what they need to do to reach that level.

Besides, if we do reach the finals, we'll be coming in with some fantastic form. No reason we couldn't cause a scare for the top teams.

 

[Maddhew]

if we can beat Geelong, Collingwood and Brisbane in 3 weeks then we are premiership contenders.

It just isnt going to happen.

 

[BIGBEZ]

Gotta go for it though, whatever slim chance we have!

 

[vonn]

I don't understand this at all. First things first, EVERY team that makes the finals deserves to be there. And to make the finals, we have to 3 teams that are already in the top 8, so obviously it means we can cut it.

And why wouldn't you want to make the finals? As I said before, if we make it in, we have to beat two of the 3 teams you listed that we would probably come up against.

I'm pretty sure that even if we make the finals and get smashed, it is a MUCH better learning curve for our young players than sitting at home and watching it on tele. For one thing, it will give them a chance to see how the tempo steps up a notch.

PLUS ... if we are in the finals, we are still in with a shot of the premiership. I know its close to impossible, but its 100% more possible than finishing outside of the finals!

How can you say we deserve to be in their when most of us are relying on other teams losses to make the finals.......?! that's not deserving,
a team deserving of finals is one that gets their by their pure skill and their own wins.

yeh, i dont think we'll make finals, but i also highly doubt we beat our 2 bogey sides.

the tempo steps up a notch in a final? yeh i agree with that but theyve got plenty of chances in the future, this year we will just get BELTED and most of us here know it... what will they take out of that.. a slower start to pre season? not worth the sore bodies.

an yeh i kno we are a chance for a premiership, every single 16 teams in the competition start with an even chance for it, so then why are their things like betting and favourites? of course theirs ALWAYS tha mathematical chance, but it's the logical one everyone uses.

 

[Little Jerry]

just imagine you guys had won last week. You'd have a real shot at finals.

 

[MC Bad Genius]

How can you say we deserve to be in their when most of us are relying on other teams losses to make the finals.......?! that's not deserving,
a team deserving of finals is one that gets their by their pure skill and their own wins.

yeh, i dont think we'll make finals, but i also highly doubt we beat our 2 bogey sides.

the tempo steps up a notch in a final? yeh i agree with that but theyve got plenty of chances in the future, this year we will just get BELTED and most of us here know it... what will they take out of that.. a slower start to pre season? not worth the sore bodies.

an yeh i kno we are a chance for a premiership, every single 16 teams in the competition start with an even chance for it, so then why are their things like betting and favourites? of course theirs ALWAYS tha mathematical chance, but it's the logical one everyone uses.

My point about the finals that the 8 teams with the most wins/losses and best percentages will always make the finals and they deserve to be there.

Although we are relying on Port to drop a game in the last 3 weeks of football, that doesn't actually make a difference, because we have relied on Port all year to only win a certain amount of games (ie the same number as us, or one or more less). Just because we are relying on them to do it in the the next 3 weeks doesn't mean we would be less deserving of 8th spot.

And if we make the finals and get beaten in the 1st week, that hardly makes an impact on our pre-season. The advantages of making the finals is far greater than the disadvantage of having one less week off before next year's preseason.

 

[barry fu]

Yes we can folks. the Hydra that is the SWANS football club is back out from it's cave sprouting new heads.
HANNERS
JESSE
AGENT SMITH
JACK
MOD
BIRDY
But my dark lord Vlad they are not finnished, they will not turn to dust.

 

[vonn]

My point about the finals that the 8 teams with the most wins/losses and best percentages will always make the finals and they deserve to be there.

Although we are relying on Port to drop a game in the last 3 weeks of football, that doesn't actually make a difference, because we have relied on Port all year to only win a certain amount of games (ie the same number as us, or one or more less). Just because we are relying on them to do it in the the next 3 weeks doesn't mean we would be less deserving of 8th spot.

And if we make the finals and get beaten in the 1st week, that hardly makes an impact on our pre-season. The advantages of making the finals is far greater than the disadvantage of having one less week off before next year's preseason.

yeh but we wont have made finals by winnin the certain number of games.. it'll be because our competition have lost them.. unless we can continue this form then we are deserving of finals.. but so far we havnt we have been patchy all year.... to me their is a difference between making the finals and being in the finals... one is done by your own actions.. it is obvious we arent good enough to compete with the best (barrrin STK but we always match up well) do i need to mention the thrashing doggies and cats gave us? how well do u think that'll be to our young boys...

 

[legend166]

yeh but we wont have made finals by winnin the certain number of games.. it'll be because our competition have lost them.. unless we can continue this form then we are deserving of finals.. but so far we havnt we have been patchy all year.... to me their is a difference between making the finals and being in the finals... one is done by your own actions.. it is obvious we arent good enough to compete with the best (barrrin STK but we always match up well) do i need to mention the thrashing doggies and cats gave us? how well do u think that'll be to our young boys...

Every team in the competition relies on other teams to lose games. Are you nuts?

 

[vonn]

WB.... STK... GEELONG... yeh they really rely on their opposition to lose games aye...

 

[BIGBEZ]

shut up vonn, lol

 

[vonn]

makeee me bez

I believ in wat im sayin an ill defend that cuz its what i think its right, if they want to challenge it its their choice

 

[Jimthegreat]

i actually dont want to play finals, it's obvious we dont deserve it and were gonna get smashed first week because if we finish 7 or 8 then we vs either adelaide or brisbane or collingwood

its a great result what weve done with the youth but i think we shud let them hav a full pre season and smash em all next year, not make up the numbers for this years.

If the OP's results work out next week there's also a fair chance you'd be playing Carlton first week. Remember, then you'd go into the last 2 games already in the 8.

You're suddenly in with a finals chance up to your neck, although the run home isn't pleasant. Geelong's well beatable in Sydney now as are the Lions last game. Just Collingwood in the middle of all them.

 

[BIGBEZ]

makeee me bez

I believ in wat im sayin an ill defend that cuz its what i think its right, if they want to challenge it its their choice

ok just kidding, give em heaps mate...