Fmg - fortescue metals group

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Mordecai

Mordecai

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Apr 8, 2006
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Hi,

I'm new to the game and this is the first share I have begun to follow.

I managed to get in at 2.49 after it broke through a few support barriers and then was very fortunate to see it rise to 3.30 before it was suspended. This was because of foreign investment interest.

It has since pulled back to 2.20 and then rebounded to 2.50. Support barriers seem to be around the 20 cent marks. Today it crashed at the end of trading to 2.38. I can see it falling below the 2 dollar mark soon given this breakout at which point it might be a good time to buy.

Latest news - http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSSYD46666620090309

Edit: Disclosure - Bought at 2.49, sold at 2.96. Looked to get back in at 2.20 but missed the boat. Still looking for an entry but not holding at the moment.
 
Sell it @ $3 or better and buy back in under $2.50

Money for jam.

The reason it dropped today was because it issued another 17 mill shares to China, not to worry, it will creep back up over the next week or so
 
My worry with fmg is the chinese wanting a 50-60% decreases in iron ore prices, that would be a massive drop in profit.
 

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r dub 19 said:
My worry with fmg is the chinese wanting a 50-60% decreases in iron ore prices, that would be a massive drop in profit.
Click to expand...
Yes, but fmg's overall turnover may still be about the same or perhaps more because they are ramping up from 23 mill tones to 55 mill tones and eventually to 200mill tones.
They have take off agreements too
 
55mt is old targets Col. For CY 09 they have downgraded forecast production to 38mt.

Now that they have the debt more under control previous liquidity issues have abated and it will all now come down to operational performance, the area that Twiggy has struggled with in his past ventures.
 
Harro said:
Hi,

I'm new to the game and this is the first share I have begun to follow.

I managed to get in at 2.49 after it broke through a few support barriers and then was very fortunate to see it rise to 3.30 before it was suspended. This was because of foreign investment interest.

It has since pulled back to 2.20 and then rebounded to 2.50. Support barriers seem to be around the 20 cent marks. Today it crashed at the end of trading to 2.38. I can see it falling below the 2 dollar mark soon given this breakout at which point it might be a good time to buy.

Latest news - http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSSYD46666620090309

Edit: Disclosure - Bought at 2.49, sold at 2.96. Looked to get back in at 2.20 but missed the boat. Still looking for an entry but not holding at the moment.
Click to expand...

Whats the size of your parcel's?

Are you investing to make a quick buck or do you have a longer term outlook?
 
morgoth said:
55mt is old targets Col. For CY 09 they have downgraded forecast production to 38mt.

Now that they have the debt more under control previous liquidity issues have abated and it will all now come down to operational performance, the area that Twiggy has struggled with in his past ventures.
Click to expand...

Ok thanks for the update morgs, I missed that.

I think the Chinese will ensure Twiggy hits fmg's predicted targets, they didn't buy in because they like throwing money away.

As Deep Throat once said "Follow the money"
 
Yep, the issue over the last 3 to 6 months has all been about debt, with that kind of out of the way, a lot clearer. An interesting point is who do the Chinese support more? RIO or FMG? Does it mean BHP gets squeezed?

FMG has lower quality ore and therefore higher cost of per tonne but all should do well once prices stablise, spot market is stuffed at the minute but some positve signs emerging with copper starting to look like it has bottomed and is bouncing (copper is seen as a leading inidicator for the world ecomomy).
 
morgoth said:
Yep, the issue over the last 3 to 6 months has all been about debt, with that kind of out of the way, a lot clearer. An interesting point is who do the Chinese support more? RIO or FMG? Does it mean BHP gets squeezed?

FMG has lower quality ore and therefore higher cost of per tonne but all should do well once prices stablise, spot market is stuffed at the minute but some positve signs emerging with copper starting to look like it has bottomed and is bouncing (copper is seen as a leading inidicator for the world ecomomy).
Click to expand...

You read that as well?

Not only has it bottomed it is starting to curve upward. Oil intitially followed but sprung a leak backward.

Personally I think we are near the bottom, following Copper's resurgence and the effect of Citigroups announcement we may see an upward bounce in market sentiment.
 
Reasonable said:
Whats the size of your parcel's?

Are you investing to make a quick buck or do you have a longer term outlook?
Click to expand...

Very small. So small you can consider it paper trading. I'm trying to keep in the game given the percentage cost trading in and out costs me. So far I'm doing ok.

Week to week timeframe on average.

Am looking at futures and CFDs in the future. This is something my grandfather has done for many years and he's trying to help me along.
 
Harro said:
Very small. So small you can consider it paper trading. I'm trying to keep in the game given the percentage cost trading in and out costs me. So far I'm doing ok.

Week to week timeframe on average.

Am looking at futures and CFDs in the future. This is something my grandfather has done for many years and he's trying to help me along.
Click to expand...

Fair enough, Im currently taking the long term view, I think there are some excellent returns to be made in the coming years.

Bought a small parcel of IOF, 5000, at .205cps.

Good luck mate
 

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r dub 19 said:
Get on board immediatley, FMG look to be the only answer for the Chinese now as BHP/RIO have a joint venture.
Click to expand...

Not really the only other option. AGO is in production and GBG isn't far off. Obviously not as large as FMG but atleast it gives them options.
 
The BRICKSTER said:
Whats everyones thoughts now? Bought at 5.10 about a month ago probably the worst time to buy at about 4.10 now?

Is it likely to rise again or continue to fall?
Click to expand...

Not to bad.....I got at 5 also.

Better to buy back when they were 1.80 in the crash lol!!!
 
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