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US Fed increasing rates 0.5 in March.

40 year inflation high.

Phillip Lowe - "Nothing to see here"
 

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MirosWife said:
Look at the Asian markets not the US haha
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Where do you think our banks borrow their money from?

Answer?

Not Asia

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If US rates go up, our banks likely follow. Regardless what our inept RBA does. Which i daresay is exactly what the RBA knows and is doing. Allowing banks to independently rise their rates so the RBA look like good guys.
 
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HirdsTheWord said:
Where do you think our banks borrow their money from?

Answer?

Not Asia

View attachment 1325805

If US rates go up, our banks likely follow. Regardless what our inept RBA does. Which i daresay is exactly what the RBA knows and is doing. Allowing banks to independently rise their rates so the RBA look like good guys.
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i was just quoting the RBA top dog
 

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Kram said:
Huge day for gold, energy strong as well :thumbsu:

Lithium smashed though...
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People see gold as an inflation hedge (I reckon it's overrated in that respect, but never mind), and I think that energy is peaking (I sold XOM at about $80 and now it's under $79), so I'm not that surprised.

That energy appears to be peaking makes me wonder how many times the Fed will lift rates. Probably enough to make sure that the commodities complex is brought down definitively, which clearly hasn't happened just yet, but I'd say no more than a few times.
 
As for me? My day was maybe slightly above average given that a lot of people got smacked, but I still underperformed the ASX.

Meanwhile, the US stock market has begun its decline. There will still be some BTFD going on, but in general the trend will be down. The ASX is clearly trailing, but it'll follow the same course.
 
DaRick said:
As for me? My day was maybe slightly above average given that a lot of people got smacked, but I still underperformed the ASX.

Meanwhile, the US stock market has begun its decline. There will still be some BTFD going on, but in general the trend will be down. The ASX is clearly trailing, but it'll follow the same course.
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QED.

Anyway, here are some interesting graphs to digest - from the US:


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IMO these are the implications:

- A disinflationary downturn is going to hit the US - note the downward slope of the PMI and the inventory buildup, plus the Fed tightening and hiking interest rates removing money from the economy while promoting disinflation - disinflation occurs when too little money chases too many goods, and increasingly seems to be the case in the US.

- That situation will be exacerbated by demand for goods decreasing relative to services.

- The USD is a safe-haven currency and is undervalued, so I would personally invest a minimum of AUD$1000 in USD and one of USDU and UUP to prepare for the upcoming downturn if you can. I say two because that should keep volatility relatively low (around 7.5%) while ensuring exposure against all five currencies listed here. Plus the AUD is a commodity currency, and given that I expect commodities to decline it seems safe enough to bet against it over the longer run. That, and I expect the yuan to decline due to China's economic issues, plus them releasing stimulus later on in the year (maybe around May/June) should keep it, and the AUD, relatively low compared to the USD.

Even though I wouldn't normally have done so because the technicals don't really support it (they're around neutral, rather than in the buy zone), I decided to invest just over AUD$500 in one of the world's most stable stocks - Verizon (VZ). It's a telco, so it provides a service, it's earnings growth is steady, it provides a healthy dividend, it makes its income in US dollar so should benefit from a rising dollar, it has a competitive advantage (moat) and it does reduce volatility, which is obviously important in a very volatile environment. Plus, if the Fed hikes interest rates, it should drop, so I can just invest USD$250 more. That, and it does outperform during disinflationary downturns, like other old-school telcos.

EDIT: My technicals don't support adding more to USD/USDU/UUP just yet, so I've deleted that part. I also added $100 more to my Vanguard Infrastructure Index Fund (VBLD) and the Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VDGR) to keep it within the ideal range, and the technicals would suggest adding more (maybe $AUD500 at a minimum) when the price hits $61.30 or thereabouts. I also adjusted my IEM stop loss to $65.80, and I'll just invest the minimum ($AUD500) for now.
 
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craigos said:
I was so close to 1000% but did the Warney and got caught on the rope. Slightest positive news and it gets back there imo.
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Definitely. It’s just a waiting game now. They’ll spend the next few months working out the size of this thing and we’ll get incremental boosts on every update. Then there’s potential gold and lithium news from the figurative and literal left field in WA. I just can’t bring myself to sell for anything less than $7 as it stands.
 
The Lion roared big time with Tesla deal

and

CSL Limited (CSL) $263.69

CSL: +8.51%: A strong 1H22 for CSL relative to market expectations today plus their guidance was positive for the full year. Revenue of $5.81bn was above the $5.56bn expected while 1H22 EBIT of $2.21bn compared well to the $2.03bn forecast for the half and also the $2.96bn pencilled in for the full year. While they said the result would be heavily skewed to the first 6 months, they’ve already banked ~75% of the expected full year earnings making it a low bar to get over. All in all, a good result for our 3rd largest ASX listed company after a difficult year having seen the SP fall 25% from their November high.
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