General Markets Talk

[sabre_ac]

Get ready for a US stock market correction, say the experts

Some of the biggest stock market names are cautioning investors that a potential correction could be on the horizon. What can investors do to prepare? The post Get ready for a US stock market correction, say the experts appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

uk.finance.yahoo.com

Further rate cuts in Australia may soften the blow a little on our markets.
Take care little.

Sounds like a combination of a slowing economy and Trump pressure will result in some fairly heavy rate cuts in the US in the next 12 months. Australia and other developed countries will likely follow.

 

[Kram]

Lithium miners led losses across the benchmark on news that China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) was about to resume production at a lithium mine in Yichuna following a halt last month due to a license expiry. Concerns that the new supply will weigh on the metal price sent Pilbara Minerals and Liontown tumbling more than 15 per cent. IGO sank 12 per cent and Mineral Resources was nearly 7 per cent lower.

 

[Kram]

Stuff it took 30% profit on PLS @ 2.37

 

[Kram]

Finally back in the green on adairs.

Sell button on Monday.

 

[juss]

Glad I held out on Doughh which is now Stakk on the ASX, its just jumped this past week due to a partnership with Robinhood in the US

 

[Kram]

Best time of the year coming up.

Dividend payment season.

 

[sabre_ac]

Best time of the year coming up.

Dividend payment season.

Investors Christmas!
I've been wanting to load up on more dividend-focused ETFs. I've always assumed that now wasn't a good time to buy them, though I suspect I'm entirely wrong.

 

[Kram]

GNG show me the money!

Pretty funny. It was an ordinary to almost dud investment for the first 3 years, then 5 year after that now an absolute knock out.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Get ready for a US stock market correction, say the experts

Some of the biggest stock market names are cautioning investors that a potential correction could be on the horizon. What can investors do to prepare? The post Get ready for a US stock market correction, say the experts appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

uk.finance.yahoo.com

Further rate cuts in Australia may soften the blow a little on our markets.
Take care little.

There's always a correction around the corner. These sort of articles appear regularly so eventually one of them will be right. It's a bit like the old shotgun prediction scams.

Perhaps the real question is whether the US market is in a bubble right now. The S&P 500 has a year low of $482 USD but is now around $660 USD. That's about a 37% rise since April this year. It seems to be driven by AI initiatives from the big tech companies. Will it deliver profits or is it dot com 2.0?

 

[Mofra]

There's always a correction around the corner. These sort of articles appear regularly so eventually one of them will be right. It's a bit like the old shotgun prediction scams.

Perhaps the real question is whether the US market is in a bubble right now. The S&P 500 has a year low of $482 USD but is now around $660 USD. That's about a 37% rise since April this year. It seems to be driven by AI initiatives from the big tech companies. Will it deliver profits or is it dot com 2.0?

The Mag 7 have gone nuts. That seems to account for much of the US market boom.

The USD losing value certainly makes things a little more circumspect from an OS perspective.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

MTM on the watchlist - truly a boom/bust type scenario.

REEs aren't exactly 'rare' despite the name, just complex, messy and costly to extract.
MTM's tech could simplify the process as well as helping with the recycling of e-waste.

Still a lot of water to go under the bridge. I'm not yet holding DYOR, etc.

Did you jump on @ 60c?

 

[Mofra]

Did you jump on @ 60c?

No. Kicking myself

 

[Saint]

The Mag 7 have gone nuts. That seems to account for much of the US market boom.

The USD losing value certainly makes things a little more circumspect from an OS perspective.

Can somebody explain why, based on Revenue of $160bn (annualised from the last quarter) that Nvidia has a market cap of $4.2tn, more than the whole Pharma sector of the US? It's a Revenue Multiple of 26 and growing.

90% of Nvidia's revenue comes from its Data centre sector. The data centre growth is based on massive uptake of AI assumptions. But nobody's (nearly) really paying for AI at the moment, it's all coming from investments in companies just like Nvidia with massive revenue multiples handing them money for more GPUs and data centres for more assumed AI expansion.

It seems they're all competing to be the big AI company and the investors are believing that only the biggest will survive so keep pumping them up?

Like the Dot Com bust, I think AI companies will eventually make money, but only a few of them and many more will go bust. I'm just not sure how the Mag 7 are sustaining each other in all this speculative AI and data centre investments through investments, but none of them are making any real profit in the AI area yet.

Nvidia's largest clients are the other Mag 7 companies (Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla) all investing in their own AI competitors. Just two companies make up 39% of its revenue.

Maybe nothing triggers a run and they manage to monetise AI before investors demand a RoI for their $4 trillion, but even their customers are their main competitors to ChatGPT. They can't/won't all win.

It just looks all very flimsy and I can't see the market cap being justified in the near future. I guess if you truly think AI will replace workers in many industries, the revenue might happen. But that would probably also coincide with great civil unrest, so not something I'd really want to invest a lot in......

 

[Kram]

Investors are bracing for a wave of selling when the sharemarket opens on Monday after US President Donald Trump threatened to slap huge tariffs on China, but the pullback is expected to be short-lived as traders pounce on a rare opportunity to snap up expensive stocks.
Trump declared over the weekend that he would impose an additional 100 tariffs on China and export controls on “any and all critical software” from November 1 in retaliation to Beijing placing curbs on the export of rare earths. The White House acknowledged Trump could retreat from the dramatic escalation if China backed down from its rare earth restrictions.

ASX to follow Wall Street lower as tariff anxiety returns to markets

Futures point to a 0.9 per cent drop when the ASX opens on Monday, but the pullback is expected to be short-lived as bullish investors buy the dip.

www.afr.com

 

[Mofra]

TACO - he's already walked it back

 

[Kram]

Sold all my stk but realised after it had just gone through 1\3 of was 1 week short of the 12 month 50% discount ffs.

Shouldn't complain about a few hundred bucks extra tax when you just made $9k and at least the first 2/3 were just past it but still a silly error.

 

[Falchoon]

I haven't been here for a while, had my money elsewhere. Kept RAC as my only stock. Back into a couple of good movers based on technical analysis.

But I've noticed the forum's (former) 10x favourite Liontown is on the move again. What a ride that was.

 

[Kram]

But I've noticed the forum's (former) 10x favourite Liontown is on the move again. What a ride that was.

Dunno why, I sold a few yesterday. They have a fair bit of debt, that thing could easily go pear shaped.

 

[Kram]

Even though the market is at all time highs I can actually see some ok buys to put cash raised in.

 

[Kram]

Gold just had its worst day since the pandemic. Where do prices go from here?​

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Gold recorded its steepest one day selloff since 2020 on Tuesday. Historical data offers clues about what investors should expect next.
[COLOR=rgb(25 32 45/var(--tw-text-opacity))]5 hours ago
[COLOR=rgb(120 139 155/var(--tw-text-opacity))]Print Wire[/COLOR][/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(0 0 0/var(--tw-text-opacity))]Kerry Sunhttps://www.livewiremarkets.com/contributors/kerrysun
[COLOR=rgb(142 163 181/var(--tw-text-opacity))]Livewire Markets[/COLOR]
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Gold posted its steepest selloff since the pandemic earlier this week, yet despite the sharp 5.3% decline, prices only fell to a one-week low of US$4,124.
While everyone calls gold a 'safe haven', its price action tells a different story. Statistically speaking, a roughly 5% one-day selloff is extremely rare. In a "normal" distribution, moves of −4.7% to −6.0% should occur once every 240,000 trading days. In reality, they've happened 34 times since 1971 across 13,088 trading days, or 0.26% of the time (roughly 1 in 385 days), according to resources investor Alexander Stahel.
After such a massive one-day dip, the question on everyone's mind is: where does gold go from here? While no crystal ball can predict prices with certainty, historical precedents offer some valuable clues.

Previous selloffs​

Since 1990, gold has recorded 15 instances of falling 5% or more. Here's how it performed after the selloff, across various time frames.

How gold performs after a selloff of 5% or more (Source: Author's own calculations)​

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Gold just had its worst day since the pandemic. Where do prices go from here?

Gold recorded its steepest one day selloff since 2020 on Tuesday. Historical data offers clues about what investors should expect next.

www.livewiremarkets.com

 

[Grumpyshades]

Can somebody explain why, based on Revenue of $160bn (annualised from the last quarter) that Nvidia has a market cap of $4.2tn, more than the whole Pharma sector of the US? It's a Revenue Multiple of 26 and growing.

90% of Nvidia's revenue comes from its Data centre sector. The data centre growth is based on massive uptake of AI assumptions. But nobody's (nearly) really paying for AI at the moment, it's all coming from investments in companies just like Nvidia with massive revenue multiples handing them money for more GPUs and data centres for more assumed AI expansion.

It seems they're all competing to be the big AI company and the investors are believing that only the biggest will survive so keep pumping them up?

Like the Dot Com bust, I think AI companies will eventually make money, but only a few of them and many more will go bust. I'm just not sure how the Mag 7 are sustaining each other in all this speculative AI and data centre investments through investments, but none of them are making any real profit in the AI area yet.

Nvidia's largest clients are the other Mag 7 companies (Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla) all investing in their own AI competitors. Just two companies make up 39% of its revenue.

Maybe nothing triggers a run and they manage to monetise AI before investors demand a RoI for their $4 trillion, but even their customers are their main competitors to ChatGPT. They can't/won't all win.

It just looks all very flimsy and I can't see the market cap being justified in the near future. I guess if you truly think AI will replace workers in many industries, the revenue might happen. But that would probably also coincide with great civil unrest, so not something I'd really want to invest a lot in......

share price x no of shares

 

[Kram]

CSL oh how the mighty has fallen.

 

[Mofra]

CSL oh how the mighty has fallen.

I'm still holding mine from the $31 per share buy many years ago. One the longest of long term holds.

Hope nobody got sucked into the bull spike by REE companies - massive cap raisings announced by 3 on my watchlist - ARU, BRE, NTU.

Tempted to put in a bid just above the 28c floor for ARU. Massive dilution underway though, 1.2bn new shares!

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

CSL oh how the mighty has fallen.

Keep buying the dip, it can't run forever

 

[Kram]

Before the Bell: Wall St swings as Powell speaks​

Timothy Moore
Australian share futures fell, in line with a sharp turn in New York, after Federal Reserve Jerome Powell refused to shift from his cautious outlook on interest rates.
Markets have been positioning for three quarter-point rate cuts, with the second being approved this morning. The Fed’s final policy meeting of the year is in December.
A key reason for Powell’s caution is the dearth of data because of the US federal government shutdown.
While the probability of a quarter point cut in December was pared, it still stands at 88.2 per cent, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. It was 99.5 per cent the previous day.
Powell has repeatedly refused to be drawn into providing any specific rate guidance.
Oxford Economics’ Michael Pearce said: “A December cut remains a close call amid the shutdown-driven data blackout. Our forecast is for the Fed to remain on pause over coming months and deliver three cuts at a quarterly pace in 2026.”
Investors are also awaiting the release of quarterly results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta Platforms after the closing bell in New York, at 7am AEDT. [Apple and Amazon will report on Friday AEDT.]
President Donald Trump is set to meet with China’s Xi Jiniping at 11am local time in South Korea on Thursday. Trump has signalled that the two leaders are poised to agree to terms for a trade truce.

Market highlights​

ASX 200 futures are pointing down 45 points or 0.5% to 8899.
All US prices near 3pm New York time.

• AUD -0.1% to US65.77¢
• Bitcoin -3.4% to $US110,982
• On Wall St: Dow -0.1% S&P -0.1% Nasdaq +0.3%
• VIX +0.85 to 17.27
• Gold +0.4% to $US3969.17 an ounce
• Brent oil +0.8% to $US64.95 a barrel
• Iron ore +1.2% to $US107.05 a tonne
• 10-year yield: US 4.05% Australia 4.22%

ASX 200 LIVE: ASX futures flat, Nvidia provides pre-Fed lift to Wall St

ASX share futures fell, in line with a swing in New York as the Fed boss reiterated his cautious approach; Rinehart’s Roy Hill’s profit falls 44pc. Follow live.

www.afr.com