Hawks Cant Win The Premiership?

[Roddy]

The quarters won stat is comparing half season stats to a whole season. That's a bit silly

But where he is right is we haven't had that "make a statement" game other than perhaps against North and WC

I still reckon our game against Sydney was not a true performance because of the Roughy news. We were flat as that night. Normally we play with a bit of grunt against big teams on the MCG

I was there, not sure if you were or not, but that is spot on. We were not ourselves that night.

 

[offtherails9]

I think we'll find out how we're really looking after the bye. Last year we came back from the bye and beat the Crows on a Thursday night in a hard fought team performance, smashed the Bombers, and then beat the Pies in a tight game on the day of Phil Walsh's passing.

Not that my memory is the best but I recall myself and the rest of this board feeling not too great about last season, the first 10 rounds I was thinking we were no chance, we then had some good wins after the bye before in round 15 and 16 we turned on the jets big time and smashed the Dockers and Swans in freakish team performances. We're just about on the line on the squiggle, and if we can come out in a month or so and prove ourselves with games like we did against the Swans and Docks, we are a massive chance.

 

[LuckyHawk]

Midfield needs to breakeven
Entries inside 50 to be short spot up kicks and no more bombing long to a 3 on 1 in the oppositions favour
Continue to have the leagues best ball movement from defence to attack but with a better inside 50 approach.

Spot on. This is it.
My only other worry is what happens if we lose a KPP down back, who is the replacement with enough afl
experience? Brand 3 games, Heatherly 0 games. Atm Gibbo can't really roam anyway. Not sure where Clarko
is going with this other than they're happy to play short down back but it didn't work against north and it wasn't
a dry September day too. Keeping the faith.

 

[GOHORCS]

You make some good points and your opinion is valid to a point about inside entries.
Our strength in the forward line is the 3 smaller blokes we have in bruest, rioli and puopolo with gunston as a lead up or one on one. We also have the rucks of McEvoy and Ceglar as well as Sicily and Obrien who can all take a pack mark. Both rioli and puopolo can also take a mark if the ball is short or long or the pack collapses. So in the scenario that the ball is bombed in long to this contingent, it is either marked by opposition which is the point you make well about the cats Harry taylor and Enright or it is marked by one of ours or it is spoiled and falls to the ground where our smalls can do what they do. If they don't get it then our backline has pushed up and makes sure we get another inside 50. It is a pretty good bet and one which works most of the time.

The risk is we can be caught on a fast break which we are at times and it looks like we are easily beaten. With roughy and shoe in it was perfect as they were not great contested marks but were great at getting ball to smalls with tap or bringing to ground. They were better at lead up marks. They are not there ATM so plan of bomb long is best for now.

Clarkson is the master of tweaking the plan to suit the soldiers he has at his disposal.

 

[Clarkos_Soldier]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/06/21/hawthorn-cant-win-afl-premiership/

This is just smart journalism to obtain a readership. Not many have the guts to say that Hawthorn can't win it so this author has thought 'if I say they will not win and given there is a a huge probability they wont be able to I can really make a name for myself going forward'. Statistically Hawthorn has a very small chance of winning a fourth straight flag after having played in the last 4 grand finals so it makes sense from a journalistic perspective to write an article like this. I for one am really happy that people don't think we can win it. I hope the whole world thinks we can't win it. The less pressure on the Hawks the more likely for them to destroy the opposition in the finals.

I think if we are fit with Hodge firing again and Shoey getting back into the team and showing last years form, this team can be even stronger. Tim O'Brien has been improving every week but I don't think he is better than Shoey at his best.

 

[madhawksfan]

You don't win premierships in June. Geelong are playing great footy at the moment but I don't think they have another level and they will need to play at that level in September to win.

We have proven we can but Cats are unproven with their current side.

They got us at the best possible time and we were ahead in the third quarter and could've won had we kicked straight (which the article doesn't mention).

Plus, if Dangerfield or Selwood get injured they are screwe

Our loss to Shitney could've easily been a win for us had we taken a couple of easy chances. Plus, it was hardly a convincing performance by them.

The GWS game was an outlier and it's not like they are a bunch of chumps. Giants have beaten WB, Shitney and Geelong.

The article is wishful thinking.

 

[Clarkos_Soldier]

Can we win the premiership? Yes of course we can.
Do I think we will? No I don't

There are two glaring weaknesses in our game that we are unable to address this season in terms of personnel but maybe we can in strategy

In Summary

Midfield needs to breakeven
Entries inside 50 to be short spot up kicks and no more bombing long to a 3 on 1 in the oppositions favour
Continue to have the leagues best ball movement from defence to attack but with a better inside 50 approach.

Let me analyse this another way for you.

Why are seemingly weak in the midfield? Because we have been playing young players in a huge number of games. We have used a number of first year players in centre bounces including Pittonet in a few games. That will make a difference to the stats. But come finals time who do you think will line up there? Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Shiels, Burgoyne, Rioli and at times we see Puopolo and Breust. I don't think those guys get beaten on more than 50% of the time so I am not worried. If anything, we are better positioned because if one of those guys are needed elsewhere or can't take their place we can inject someone else.

There are two reasons why Hawthorn are kicking long in my view. Firstly, if you wanted players like O'Brien and Sicily to get better at marking and getting confidence what would you do? Kick the ball long into the forward line to give them a chance to learn their caper. I think that's why we have been doing this and now it's paying off. O'Brien and Sicily are so much better at judging the ball and getting more and more confident. However, this is not the usual Hawthorn play. Secondly, this makes all opposition teams prepare for us in a manner that is designed to stop the long bomb. We did this last year too in big patches but what did we do in the finals? This is a simple adjustment and not a huge problem.

 

[Davo23]

Let me analyse this another way for you.

Why are seemingly weak in the midfield? Because we have been playing young players in a huge number of games. We have used a number of first year players in centre bounces including Pittonet in a few games. That will make a difference to the stats. But come finals time who do you think will line up there? Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Shiels, Burgoyne, Rioli and at times we see Puopolo and Breust. I don't think those guys get beaten on more than 50% of the time so I am not worried. If anything, we are better positioned because if one of those guys are needed elsewhere or can't take their place we can inject someone else.

There are two reasons why Hawthorn are kicking long in my view. Firstly, if you wanted players like O'Brien and Sicily to get better at marking and getting confidence what would you do? Kick the ball long into the forward line to give them a chance to learn their caper. I think that's why we have been doing this and now it's paying off. O'Brien and Sicily are so much better at judging the ball and getting more and more confident. However, this is not the usual Hawthorn play. Secondly, this makes all opposition teams prepare for us in a manner that is designed to stop the long bomb. We did this last year two in big patches but what did we do in the finals? This is a simple adjustment and not a huge problem.

Good post, and you can add that we bomb into the forward line as part of the grand plan, not just because our players have no idea.
If it wasn't Clarko's own plan, how long would it last, and the players doing it?

The plan is to get the chaos ball into the forward line, with the tall players bringing the ball to the ground, allowing our small forwards to go to town on the crumbs.

It was the same last year.

 

[Main Man]

http://www.sen.com.au/news/afl/06-1...peat-alive-rohan-connolly#azVoYcIDDwuydXtY.97
Not everyone writing us off.

Just add this Cameron Rose peanut to the list of so called media experts who have already written us off despite being 10-3, Jon Ralph, Matthew Lloyd and worst of all Max Laughton who doesn't even think we will make the top 8.

We obviously have not played our best this year but we have only had one really poor game which was the loss to GWS, round 1 wasn't great but we had 4 of our starting 22 missing and only played one good quarter of football and the Sydney game came in a week of extraordinary circumstance where we played poorly and still had our chances to win the game.

We are likely to finish top 4 and there is only upside with this team with Hodge to return and improvement from younger players like Sicily and TOB, how can you possibly say that we cannot win it?

It's obviously going to be very difficult but we are still a huge chance, if we were going to get Rough back this year I would just about declare us but now I think it will come down to TOB and co performing in the finals.

 

[Paul007]

I wouldn't say I have seen priemership winning football from us so far this year but we have found a way to win and it isn't September yet. We are in the top 4 and I will reserve judgement until we are closer to finals time, concerning how we get easily smashed in the center clearance sometimes though. GWS are a real threat, nobody has smashed us like that for a long while, but September, finals time, at the MCG who knows and an injury to the Mummy would really slow them down.

 

[Hawks1994]

At this exact stage of the season, other teams have played better and more consistently than we have

Of course we have the potential there to win another flag, however there is still so much football to be played this year and I'm predicting a fair few surprises, given the competition has tightened up and lower teams are beating better teams

So yes, we can win the premiership, however, much improvement is required in the run home

 

[MC_9]

Interesting article on Fox Sports about our contested possession.

It states we are one of the best pressure teams in the comp, that forces our opponents to have more contested possessions. Therefore upping our contested possession differential.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how...n/news-story/1d74c81cbb313f1aea4dfb3f8a60ac6b

 

[badgrill]

Interesting article on Fox Sports about our contested possession.

It states we are one of the best pressure teams in the comp, that forces our opponents to have more contested possessions. Therefore upping our contested possession differential.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how...n/news-story/1d74c81cbb313f1aea4dfb3f8a60ac6b

Wow! Wonder where they got that idea from?

 

[Brishawk]

Interesting article on Fox Sports about our contested possession.

It states we are one of the best pressure teams in the comp, that forces our opponents to have more contested possessions. Therefore upping our contested possession differential.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how...n/news-story/1d74c81cbb313f1aea4dfb3f8a60ac6b

Probably read that in the rope a dope thread.

 

[Brishawk]

Premiership Hawthorn meme?

For sure

 

[Blaze Storm]

Lazy article.

Only a complete and utter fkwit writes off a champion team.

The comments section is even better. The guy is adamant they can't win.

I mean, sure- hawks are 5.50 to win the premiership, which means that he has about an 80% chance of being right on retrospect.

 

[grumbleguts]

Can we win the premiership? Yes of course we can.
Do I think we will? No I don't

There are two glaring weaknesses in our game that we are unable to address this season in terms of personnel but maybe we can in strategy

1) Our midfield is continually smashed week in week out in contested possession and clearances but I'm not so worried about the stats its more about actually watching the game, seeing the ease with which other teams midfielders waltz out of the stoppage under no pressure whatsoever. The reason we are able to remain competitive despite being so bad in the midfield is that we have an excellent back six who have been under the pump all year and have defended amazingly. Frawley has been huge this year and is rarely if ever beaten and Burgoyne down back seems to know the right thing to do at the right time in all circumstances.

The reason we have won games is due to relying on individual brilliance and a solid defensive and ball movement system that has been entrenched for the last 5 years. Issac Smith has had a great season and ive noticed especially late in games the running power of him, hill and to a lesser extent hartung has really opened teams up. it was clear to me against North their run was the point of difference we had and they didn't and those playes really opened them up transitioning the ball from defense to attack.

2) If you remember back to that huge string of losses we had against geelong after the 08 GF the common thread was our entries into forward 50 were rushed, long and high. Harry Taylor intercept mark, enright intercept mark, rinse and repeat. Ive noticed in a lot of games this year we are just bombing it high to the hot spot 20m out from goal. This dumb football is even dumber by that fact that we dont have roughead or even Shoenmakers in the team.

The only way we can win the premiership I see is if we really bolster out midfield, which would need Langford to return to form and fix up his decision making and disposal. Going into games we know we are going to be a lot slower and less talented in there so we need to go pretty defensive and hope at the best to breakeven. Shiels and Langford to play accountable roles but not tagging roles on the oppositions best midfielders and try to break even with them.

I really struggle to see how we can win a flag without Rough, its all very well to say we can but the fact is we never have before. Hes always been there before making at least a contest in September. Shoenmakers can do the role to an extent but he is no where at the level of rough. If we really change our gameplan to spotting up the short kicks inside 50 and refusing to bomb it long then I think we are a genuine chance.

Postiive is we are 10 and 3 and have plenty of time to work on it.

In Summary

Midfield needs to breakeven
Entries inside 50 to be short spot up kicks and no more bombing long to a 3 on 1 in the oppositions favour
Continue to have the leagues best ball movement from defence to attack but with a better inside 50 approach.

we won 9 premierships without roughead, jus' sayin'

 

[Long Live HFC]

until we're knocked out i'll never give up hope. but if i had to bet everything i owned, there's a couple of sides i'd choose ahead of us.

 

[Buckemenico]

Regardless of where we are at, no-one will want to play us at the MCG in September!

 

[Dave Id]

https://www.jbhifi.com.au/movies-tv...wthorn-three-peat-ultimate-collection/839518/

A chance to relive our perilous situations of recent years

 

[Agent Smith]

Lazy article.

Only a complete and utter fkwit writes off a champion team.

So you're saying it could have been written by just about anyone at the Age or the HUN?

 

[bigton08]

No we can't win the premiership this year, just like we couldn't last year or the year before. All you optimists should stop flogging that dead horse.

Yeah so my three peat memorabilia is safe yeah?
I hope all of it goes to shit and we fourthorn I can easily throw the three peat stuff out...

 

[marklar]

What everyone forgets in the midst of a H&A season is that Hodge and Mitchell are two of the greatest ever finals performers to pull on a boot.

and this guy isn't too bad either

 

[Agent Smith]

*cough cough*

Oops, how did that get there?

 

[Gralin]

*cough cough*

Oops, how did that get there?

You always have it ready to paste into a thread that's how