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History Repeating Itself?

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J

Jumping Jack

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Geelong
For those interested in historical rhetoric > consider the following. Maybe our odds are better than some are predicting.

Seem to recall a statistic I read somewhere that said "in the last 10 years the side who wins the GF had lost it's previous home and away game to the side it beats in the GF"

Eagles beaten by Swans late in 2006
Geelong beaten by Port Rd 21 2007
Hawthorn defeated by Geelong Rd 17 2008

Well .... karma might be on our side this year ..... we've been beaten by Saints Blues Lions and Dogs in home and away encounters .... let's hope we don't play Pies or Crows.

hmmmmm ... interesting
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Jumping Jack said:
For those interested in historical rhetoric > consider the following. Maybe our odds are better than some are predicting.

Seem to recall a statistic I read somewhere that said "in the last 10 years the side who wins the GF had lost it's previous home and away game to the side it beats in the GF"

Eagles beaten by Swans late in 2006
Geelong beaten by Port Rd 21 2007
Hawthorn defeated by Geelong Rd 17 2008

Well .... karma might be on our side this year ..... we've been beaten by Saints Blues Lions and Dogs in home and away encounters .... let's hope we don't play Pies or Crows.

hmmmmm ... interesting
Click to expand...

I thought i would add a few of my own.

2007, 18 wins 4 losses - Losses were to 3 VIC teams 1 Interstate - All played finals
Max Rooke looks to be out for season with hamstring. Goes to a specialist in germany. Amazing recovery and plays the finals.

2009, 18 wins 4 losses - Losses were to 3 VIC teams 1 Interstate - All playing finals
Steve johnson looks to be out for the year with a hip injury. Goes to a specialist and looks set to play finals.
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Footy_Fan2007 said:
I thought i would add a few of my own.

2007, 18 wins 4 losses - Losses were to 3 VIC teams 1 Interstate - All played finals
Max Rooke looks to be out for season with hamstring. Goes to a specialist in germany. Amazing recovery and plays the finals.

2009, 18 wins 4 losses - Losses were to 3 VIC teams 1 Interstate - All playing finals
Steve johnson looks to be out for the year with a hip injury. Goes to a specialist and looks set to play finals.
Click to expand...

Stan the Statistician would be in ejaculation mode over this crap !
Let's hope we don't get run over by the robert walls karma bus.
 

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Re: History Repeating Itself ?

year of the cat said:
I stand corrected but I don't think we are able to play Adelaide in a GF based on this years draw. So that rules them out!! We can only meet them in PF I think.
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We can meet any team in the GF.

We'd have to lose week 1 to meet the Crows in the GF.
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

By the way, any news JJ on whether Chappy will make it back this Sat?
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The angry little bald man is good to go ..... just has to get through the main sessions this week at full tilt. Apparently if the finals were this weekend he would've played.

After last years finals there is a no risk policy and anyone not right to go won't be picked. I think the lesson was learnt with Chappy and Stokes last year.
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Jumping Jack said:
By the way, any news JJ on whether Chappy will make it back this Sat?
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The angry little bald man is good to go ..... just has to get through the main sessions this week at full tilt. Apparently if the finals were this weekend he would've played.

After last years finals there is a no risk policy and anyone not right to go won't be picked. I think the lesson was learnt with Chappy and Stokes last year.[/quote]

Thanks for that. Good news. Crossed fingers this week for Rookie and Woja. Perhaps we can get some water from Lourdes sent to SJ's house....
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Footy_Fan2007 said:
Let me get something straight. You have a source that says Johno is gone for the year but you don't know anything about chappy? Why is this?
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I've answered the question on Chapman .... have'nt made a song and dance over it as I think it's generally been known that he was rested Vs Fremantle to give him another week and go into the first final 100%

As for SJ ... I would love to be told I got it wrong but all I can do is go by what I'm being told and that is as follows;

1/ Everything would need to go 100% to plan for him to make it back this year.
2/ Surgery was not a guarantee he would play in 09 because without it he was gone anyway. So the surgey was a no brainer
3/ People should'nt get too excited by the sight of him walking at the airport ... straight line walking/running is ok but with the hip muscles/tendons it's lateral movement and kicking that is the problem

I hope I'm wrong .... although same person was confident mid season that Ottens was gone. Was nearly right !
 

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Re: History Repeating Itself ?

I think it's last game played by the two teams full stop, not just H&A games.
By that I mean if we beat Dogs and they proceed to meet us in the GF, history tells us they would win.

That in itself is a very unlikely prospect though.

TC:eek:
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Someone just shared more gold from the karma book .....

In 2007 Ch 10 did the grand final and Ch7 did the brownlow - we all know how that ended up.

Well, guess what the format is in 2009 ... yes, correct again. Anyone know the odds on a Geelong flag / Gary Jnr brownlow double ?????
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Jumping Jack said:
Someone just shared more gold from the karma book .....

In 2007 Ch 10 did the grand final and Ch7 did the brownlow - we all know how that ended up.

Well, guess what the format is in 2009 ... yes, correct again. Anyone know the odds on a Geelong flag / Gary Jnr brownlow double ?????
Click to expand...

Man that stirs the blood what a dream that would be :thumbsu:
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

more from history
Last time the H&A season finished
1 ST K
2 GEEL
3 FOOTS

............sorry can't go on.. the pain of it all
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

In 1998 Adelaide defeated North in the Grand Final with North kicking badly in the second quarter and missing numerous shots in that Grand Final. In 1999 Adelaide didn't make the finals and North ended up winning the premiership.

I won't mention 2008 but Hawthorn has now missed the finals the first reigning premier since Adelaide 1999. I hope history continues to repeats and that we can follow what North did in 1999 in 2009 :thumbsu:
 

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Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Jumping Jack said:
I hope I'm wrong .... although same person was confident mid season that Ottens was gone. Was nearly right !
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Yep "nearly" right, only out by about ten weeks or so.

Don't mean to be argumentative, but unless your source is the bloke who performed the surgery on SJ then he's just speculating the same as everyone else, just hope his speculation on this one is as "correct" as it was on Ottens.
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Learning to Kick Straight said:
In 1998 Adelaide defeated North in the Grand Final with North kicking badly in the second quarter and missing numerous shots in that Grand Final. In 1999 Adelaide didn't make the finals and North ended up winning the premiership.

I won't mention 2008 but Hawthorn has now missed the finals the first reigning premier since Adelaide 1999. I hope history continues to repeats and that we can follow what North did in 1999 in 2009 :thumbsu:
Click to expand...

North Melbourne finished 2nd after the H&A season in 1999 too. :thumbsu:

Last three times we've played the Dogs in a qualifying final, we've made the grand final too.
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Cattery said:
Yep "nearly" right, only out by about ten weeks or so.

Don't mean to be argumentative, but unless your source is the bloke who performed the surgery on SJ then he's just speculating the same as everyone else, just hope his speculation on this one is as "correct" as it was on Ottens.
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Nearly right ? Ottens only played senior footy in Rd 22 so he was'nt that far off !

As for SJ ... no have'nt spoken to the surgeon but the surgeon would provide a report to the medicos at the club would'nt he ?
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Jumping Jack said:
Nearly right ? Ottens only played senior footy in Rd 22 so he was'nt that far off !
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"Senior" footy that's correct, but your source said he was gone, meaning he wouldn't be back by round twenty six [ end of finals ] yet he's back nine weeks before then and just a few weeks after your source declared him gone mid season, so I'd say he was well wide of the mark.

Jumping Jack said:
As for SJ ... no have'nt spoken to the surgeon but the surgeon would provide a report to the medicos at the club would'nt he ?
Click to expand...

Yep, and I guess the medicos at the club would have been monitering Ottens pretty closely as well, yet your source dropped the ball on that prediction though.
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Cattery said:
"Senior" footy that's correct, but your source said he was gone, meaning he wouldn't be back by round twenty six [ end of finals ] yet he's back nine weeks before then and just a few weeks after your source declared him gone mid season, so I'd say he was well wide of the mark.



Yep, and I guess the medicos at the club would have been monitering Ottens pretty closely as well, yet your source dropped the ball on that prediction though.
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My deepest apologies to you ..... just ignore any future posts from me.

For what it's worth > Ottens playing again was - and still is a gamble. It's paid off after 1 senior game but I think finals is different and we're all hoping that his body holds together for another month. And in fairness ... the not playing again in 09 was at the time Ottens had a major setback with the infection in the knee and at that stage the prognosis was very bleak.

As for SJ .... I've continually said I would love to be proven wrong. If you're trying to draw me into naming names / sources etc then you're out of luck. What I will do though is reiterate what I was told ... and that is that people "in the know" have said that the likelihood was somewhere around 25%.

I guess we'll have to wait and see on both ..... just remember though that posting on bigfooty is not some sort of competition. It's an opportunity for people to express views and opinions ... if you don't like that then maybe you should join another forum ?
 
Re: History Repeating Itself ?

Jumping Jack said:
My deepest apologies to you ..... just ignore any future posts from me.
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Apologies for what, and why would I want to ignore you in future?

Jumping Jack said:
For what it's worth > Ottens playing again was - and still is a gamble. It's paid off after 1 senior game but I think finals is different and we're all hoping that his body holds together for another month. And in fairness ... the not playing again in 09 was at the time Ottens had a major setback with the infection in the knee and at that stage the prognosis was very bleak.
Click to expand...

That's exactly the point I'm making, your source said mid season that Ottens was "gone" yet he was back playing footy five/six weeks later, which means his opinion/speculation was incorrect, just as it "may" be regarding SJ.

Jumping Jack said:
As for SJ .... I've continually said I would love to be proven wrong. If you're trying to draw me into naming names / sources etc then you're out of luck. What I will do though is reiterate what I was told ... and that is that people "in the know" have said that the likelihood was somewhere around 25%.
Click to expand...

Not trying to get you to name names, you obviously don't wish to do so [ which I respect ] and frankly I'm not that bothered in finding out anyway.


Jumping Jack said:
I guess we'll have to wait and see on both ..... just remember though that posting on bigfooty is not some sort of competition. It's an opportunity for people to express views and opinions ... if you don't like that then maybe you should join another forum ?
Click to expand...

I fully understand it's not a competition but "an opportunity for people to express views and opinions" which is precisely what I thought I was doing, merely offering my views on your remarks, why you would think I'm upset in some way by that process I can't begin to imagine, quite the opposite actually, the airing of differing opinions is one of the main attractions of BF as I see it.

To be quite honest it would appear you're the one who seems a little upset about our exchanges, but heck, I'm not about to suggest you join another forum because of that. :)
 

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