How far away are we?

[Pie eyed]

We are years away from a flag, if not decades, and most people on this board are just delusional spuds. (Rohan C. to supply the graphic)

And anyone on here trying to have a bit of fun, or trying to make themselves feel good by talking up our chances, is a dead set loser - just like Collingwood.

We don't follow footy to enjoy ourselves FFS.

Reverse psychology hey Snag?

I give you 4 posts, 6 max, before your inherent optimism pops to the fore......

 

[Optimax]

Snag really wtf?

 

[Frankie23]

If we had a bit of luck we could win one this year....
But more realistically 2010-2011 is when our premiership window is wide open, 2012 is leaving it a little late, but still possible
If we dont win a premiership in the next 4 years we never will

EDIT: Based on our current list, who knows how well (or not) we trade/draft in the future years

 

[Dave The Man]

Major thing will be Clearnces and I still think if we can be top 3 Clarence Team we will be Right Behind them.

But without the season Starting, I don't really know dare say after about 7-10 weeks we will have a better idea where we stand

 

[Pie eyed]

Major thing will be Clearnces and I still think if we can be top 3 Clarence Team we will be Right Behind them.

But without the season Starting, I don't really know dare say after about 7-10 weeks we will have a better idea where we stand

And out the mouth of DTM comes the most wise of statements..............

So endeth the leason.

 

[Swooper18]

We are years away from a flag, if not decades, and most people on this board are just delusional spuds. (Rohan C. to supply the graphic)

And anyone on here trying to have a bit of fun, or trying to make themselves feel good by talking up our chances, is a dead set loser - just like Collingwood.

We don't follow footy to enjoy ourselves FFS.

You are simply pathetic and dumb Snag Breac. How in this ****ing world, have you become one of the worst ********s that I've ever read about our club who are looking to create their own history? Here is some advice for you arseh*le! Head over to Pakistan and ask the locals to murder you. You don't earn the ****ing right to be following, let alone suporting our club. Have some hunger and desire will you. I never drop my head all that often unless we're dropping games which we have been in positions to win and expected to crush our opponents. Our playing group aren't quite there, yet we're striving to become the club that we are meant to be once that day comes and our list worries only about their own destiny, not recent failures.

 

[buzzbuzz]

Either Swooper18 doesn't understand sarcasm, or they've just one-upped Snag's own brand of reverse psychology.

Oh, I think we're at least a season, possibly two away from hitting our peak as a team. Doesn't mean we can't do well this year, just means I think we'll do better in a year or two.

 

[Pie eyed]

You are simply pathetic and dumb Snag Breac. How in this ****ing world, have you become one of the worst ********s that I've ever read about our club who are looking to create their own history? Here is some advice for you arseh*le! Head over to Pakistan and ask the locals to murder you. You don't earn the ****ing right to be following, let alone suporting our club. Have some hunger and desire will you. I never drop my head all that often unless we're dropping games which we have been in positions to win and expected to crush our opponents. Our playing group aren't quite there, yet we're striving to become the club that we are meant to be once that day comes and our list worries only about their own destiny, not recent failures.

Jumping the gun...gun!
Snag is taking the piss...........................

 

[FuManchu]

Depends when you consider the start of the tilt for a flag, is it the start of the seaon or the finals series? I'm going to go with 6 days.

Realistically we can expect a Top 4 finish in 2009. Once we're in the top 4 any comment's such as "Geelong and Hawthorn are xxx ahead of us" and "We're not good enough yet... 2010 is our year" is just a cop-out. No doubting who the two-yard sticks are for the year but they have flaws and can be beaten (some of us seem to forget this).

Seriously, if we manage to make it to a qualifying final, or better still, a preliminary final (making any of these finals would indicate that we are one of the top 4 teams), what realistic excuses could we come up with for losing these games? That our rucks suck and our backline is unstable?... well shoot me dead we made it that far with these flaws so there's no excuse for losing on the day.

well, derrrrrrrr, except if the teams that might beat us have beaten us during the year! Then that turns into a definite trend

If we don't make top 4 I'll be disappointed. We are a realistic shot for the flag this year. If you want to throw in the flag before the first bounce is... bounced... then that is up to you. Personally, I'm sick of all this two-horse race bullshit, anyone who truly believes that you can pencil in a Geelong vs Hawthorn grand final hasn't been around sport long enough.

ummm, yeah you go with that. You can only base your assumptions with whats based on whats presented and so far what has been presented tells us something.

 

[Paddywhackers]

In some cases its hard to dtect sarcasm on a forum without knowing the tone of someones voice. But having read and known what type of poster Sang is, it was glaringly obvious that she was being sarcastic! I quite like hearing what Snaghas to say and is one of the better posters, I find it humorous that people could not recognise that she was actually taking the piss.

I agree with everything she was being sarcastic about, although I would find it irritating if I was reading sarcastic response that I disagreed with.

 

[Mental Magpie]

25 games away.

 

[Pie eyed]

It may well be her account has been hijacked?

 

[HFF]

25 games away.

Yep.

 

[kevind]

Impossible to call. Geelong barring bad luck/injury should win it this year and Hawthorn, having the youngest list should have a fair stretch at the top. That could possibly be the next 3 premierships.In 3-4 years time, who knows. Carlton with their superb midfield could be a contender in 2-3 years time.

At the end of this year, it may well be the end of Presti and Rocca and Rusling's future is looking ATM decidedly cloudy. The introduction of new clubs will also throw an enormous spanner into the works.

I think we may have to wait until Beams and Sidebottom(if they live up to their potential) have had about 4 seasons in the AFL. They along with Pendleberry, McCarthy, Clarke and possibly the veteran Dane Swan could form a potent midfield. Our young KPs would then be about 6 years into their careers and primed to perform at their peaks.

For 2009, I find it very hard to see how we can win the premiership with such an ordinary midfield, problems in the ruck, vulnerability down back to class forwards such as Roughead, Franklin and Fevola and vulnerability in being able to cover the smaller,pacy,crumbing forwards.

With such an easy draw and given the eveness of teams 4-12 we certainly could push for top 4, but IMO, there is quite a gap to Hawthorn and Geelong.

 

[DThomas]

It may well be her account has been hijacked?

Yep, that's exactly what I'm thinking. She will be stunned when she wakes up and tries to log in only to find she can't sign in, she is red carded and someone has posted bullshit that she would never post.

 

[FuManchu]

We are in the position to have a tilt at a flag now.

Whether we do win a flag this year is another matter.

If things go our way as far as injuries, close games, the weather and luck then yes we can win a flag.

At no time now or ever in the future will there be a period when we will definitely win a flag.
No coach, player, midfield, forward line or back line is going to guarantee a flag.
No amount of change, recruiting, planning or gambling is ever going to guarantee a flag.

No matter what any of the cynics and skeptics say no statistic, game plan or conjurers trick can guaranteed a flag.


The best we will ever have is the chance to win a flag and the opportunity to take that chance.

Right now we have the opportunity.

No club is guaranteed to win a flag at the outset of a season, true.

But going into a season, you can look at the previous season or two and based on those you can make some fairly strong predictions.

Any team that lost only two games the previous season, albeit one being a GF, you have a fair case to say they should dominate the upcoming season especially if they havent lost too much personnel. Similarly you make the case that a team that only has wins 13 and scrapes into the 8 and hasnt had any experienced players come into the side and is really only relying on improvement from within, will struggle to dominate the following season.

Clubs that dominate seasons tend to go on and play off. When was the last time we dominated a season? We drop games we should win, we rarely win more than 14 in a season, we rely on a finals campaign all falling into place.

So Geelong and hawthorn may not be guaranteed a flag, but you can make the assumption that they are more likely to than a team that hasnt dominated a recent season. Things change season to season, but at the outset, you can really only ever go on the previous seasons form or take into account some drastic change in personnel, including injury, which hasnt occured with Geelong, Hawthorn or Collingwood.

It amuses me no end that people are saying that if we get to 4th and if the stars align , who knows what might happen. Do you really think that luck plays a part well structured campaigns? I dont think a team that forges its destiny in a season is relying on luck. Geelong even tho they scrapped thru in 2007 to play off, didnt really rely on luck, they relied on systems to get thru. If we are going to rely on luck, we could be waiting a very long time. How about we relied on systems and talent and made our own luck.

 

[Pie eyed]

No club is guaranteed to win a flag at the outset of a season, true.

But going into a season, you can look at the previous season or two and based on those you can make some fairly strong predictions.

Any team that lost only two games the previous season, albeit one being a GF, you have a fair case to say they should dominate the upcoming season especially if they havent lost too much personnel. Similarly you make the case that a team that only has wins 13 and scrapes into the 8 and hasnt had any experienced players come into the side and is really only relying on improvement from within, will struggle to dominate the following season.

Clubs that dominate seasons tend to go on and play off. When was the last time we dominated a season? We drop games we should win, we rarely win more than 14 in a season, we rely on a finals campaign all falling into place.

We need a team that will forge its own destiny, not rely on other factors helping us.

So Geelong and hawthorn may not be guaranteed a flag, but you can make the assumption that they are more likely to than a team that hasnt dominated a recent season. Things change season to season, but at the outset, you can really go on the previous seasons form or take into account some drastic change in personnel, including injury, which hasnt occured with Geelong, Hawthorn or Collingwood.

History is resplendent with examples of sides which should have won flags who did not, sides who should not who did and every possible variation in between.
Hawthorn and Geelong are rightly the flag favorites, but at least one of them will fail. If both fail then who wins the flag?

This won't happen I hear.............
Collingwood need to be, but don't have to be, in the 4 in 23 Saturdays time. If we are in the 4 then anything can happen.

As long as that ball is oval we have a chance.

 

[FuManchu]

History is resplendent with examples of sides which should have won flags who did not, sides who should not who did and every possible variation in between.
Hawthorn and Geelong are rightly the flag favorites, but at least one of them will fail. If both fail then who wins the flag?

This won't happen I hear.............
Collingwood need to be, but don't have to be, in the 4 in 23 Saturdays time. If we are in the 4 then anything can happen.

As long as that ball is oval we have a chance.

But thats a bit like the piece of plankton waiting for the whale to die so it can assume the mantle. As I said MM hasnt produced a side at Collingwood that has dominated a season bar 2003, when we were pretty good, but still not dominant. I'd feel a whole lot better having our side dominate rather than go along for the ride and hoping two or more other clubs had the footballing version of a head on bus crash.

 

[Pie eyed]

But thats a bit like the piece of plankton waiting for the whale to die so it can assume the mantle. As I said MM hasnt produced a side at Collingwood that has dominated a season bar 2003, when we were pretty good, but still not dominant. I'd feel a whole lot better having our side dominate rather than go along for the ride and hoping two or more other clubs had the footballing version of a head on bus crash.

What we are talking about is a group of Whales all vying for the best position in the current.
We are hardly "plankton".

 

[FuManchu]

What we are talking about is a group of Whales all vying for the best position in the current.
We are hardly "plankton".

the principle is the same, the size might differ.

Once again, so many would have us rely on others falling over, rather than just forging our own destiny. Are you happy to try get a flag by default or by winning it in our own right. Relying on others to fall over is a long and frustrating process probably more doomed for failure than success.

 

[Trojan82]

Even though Fu has managed to turn this thread into another MM bashing thread I unfortunately agree with some things he says...

I'd feel a whole lot better having our side dominate rather than go along for the ride

That's genius Fu. I can't believe you are the only one to mention this [/SARCASM]

In recent times it has been apparent that there are 2 dominant sides each year... Sydney/Wet Toast, Geelong/Hawthorn, Port/Brisbane, Brisbane/Collingwood. I do not agree that luck plays no part in a premiership, some might even say that Hawthorn were lucky that Geelong couldn't kick straight last year or that Collingwood were unlucky that the boundary umpire was way behind play in 1979....Yes I know this wasn't the only reason we lost the match...jeez

I think we need to be 1 of 2 dominant teams this year or next year to win the flag. Quote me on this I don't actually rate Hawthorn this year, I didn't really rate them last year either (Yes they towelled us up but that was due to us having no answer to there game style).

It is well quoted that every year for the last 15 seasons a team from outside the top 8 finishes top 4 the following year....(Port or The Scum look to be that team this year) We need to be there. And Geelong are locked in. Bulldogs, StKilda, Port, Scum Hawthorn for the last 2 spots in the top 4? My money isn't on Hawthorn in the top 4. What worries me is that there needs to be 2 sides that step up and take over from Geelong and Hawthorn....Us and The Scum could be it....2011 Collingwood V The Scum GF....I would be nervous as all hell.

Back on topic. I doubt we will win this year. But over the next 3 or 4 we should be in 2 or 3 Grand Finals....at least 1 of those against The Scum.

 

[Pie eyed]

the principle is the same, the size might differ.

Once again, so many would have us rely on others falling over, rather than just forging our own destiny. Are you happy to try get a flag by default or by winning it in our own right. Relying on others to fall over is a long and frustrating process probably more doomed for failure than success.

I don't think we are relying on others to "fall over" at all.
My point is that we are a legitimate chance at a top 4 finish and once there are we are then a chance to win the flag.

How big a chance will depend on both how we are traveling when we get a shot and how the other 7 sides are traveling.

Simply looking at the teams last years performance is no true indicator of how that team will finish the year. It simply indicates how they may start the year.
That goes for Collingwood as well.
I am not being ridiculously optimistic.
We may fall on our arse by round 11 but so may Hawthorn and or Geelong or any other side for that matter.

 

[FuManchu]

Even though Fu has managed to turn this thread into another MM bashing thread I unfortunately agree with some things he says...

But isnt MM the common denominator in all of our failures?

That's genius Fu. I can't believe you are the only one to mention this [/SARCASM]

It seems some are happy to go along with the fortuitous win, rather than a victory forged thru imposing ourselves. It doesnt happen to often. So forget the sarcasm, because even tho i might get it, others are relying on it to win the bloody thing.

In recent times it has been apparent that there are 2 dominant sides each year... Sydney/Wet Toast, Geelong/Hawthorn, Port/Brisbane, Brisbane/Collingwood. I do not agree that luck plays no part in a premiership, some might even say that Hawthorn were lucky that Geelong couldn't kick straight last year or that Collingwood were unlucky that the boundary umpire was way behind play in 1979....Yes I know this wasn't the only reason we lost the match...jeez

Ah yes, the old' excuse file for all our lost flags. Yeah, I can name them all. How about 1990, when there was no correspondence entered into? We forged that win, strangled the opposition, it was not in doubt after half time. All the others, we have let circumstances swamp us. You make your own luck, by not allowing the other side to get so close. We are shocking at allowing the other side to always be so close and then allow the jitters to creep in.

I think we need to be 1 of 2 dominant teams this year or next year to win the flag. Quote me on this I don't actually rate Hawthorn this year, I didn't really rate them last year either (Yes they towelled us up but that was due to us having no answer to there game style).

They only won 15 games in the H&A, they are pretty much the same as us in development stage. So they will be getting better from a much higher base than we are at. Much better structures, much better personnel, much better game plan ( well, not attractive, but proven). So even if you dont rate them, they have determined that they are 10 goals better than us and will that gap grow? What have we dont to decrease that gap?

It is well quoted that every year for the last 15 seasons a team from outside the top 8 finishes top 4 the following year....(Port or The Scum look to be that team this year) We need to be there. And Geelong are locked in. Bulldogs, StKilda, Port, Scum Hawthorn for the last 2 spots in the top 4? My money isn't on Hawthorn in the top 4. What worries me is that there needs to be 2 sides that step up and take over from Geelong and Hawthorn....Us and The Scum could be it....2011 Collingwood V The Scum GF....I would be nervous as all hell.

If you look at it objectively, Carlton will prob make the 8, maybe even go deep into it. Carlton anf hawthorn will benefit the mst from the diluted drafts to cme in that if they both stay at the top, no other club can effectively draft over the next 4 seasons to bridge the gap. This will prolong their stay at the top. We need to find a way to get to the top and stay there as well, or it could be a series of finals finishes but with no impact. we have already been there 3 years this time, you dont get that much longer in recent times without a fall.

So these young blokes we got 3 or 4 years back really need to impose themselves this season and beyond or we have to go back to a diluted draft to try and grow again. Its a bad time to be on the periphery. If you grabbed a flag or two, you'd be content to drop back and put up with the pain. But I fear we wont have that luxury.

Back on topic. I doubt we will win this year. But over the next 3 or 4 we should be in 2 or 3 Grand Finals....at least 1 of those against The Scum.

We have to address some serious structural issues. Carlton are well on the way, their percieved weakness is the backline , they have recruited well accross the other lines. Have we?

 

[Pie eyed]

Even though Fu has managed to turn this thread into another MM bashing thread I unfortunately agree with some things he says...



That's genius Fu. I can't believe you are the only one to mention this [/SARCASM]

In recent times it has been apparent that there are 2 dominant sides each year... Sydney/Wet Toast, Geelong/Hawthorn, Port/Brisbane, Brisbane/Collingwood. I do not agree that luck plays no part in a premiership, some might even say that Hawthorn were lucky that Geelong couldn't kick straight last year or that Collingwood were unlucky that the boundary umpire was way behind play in 1979....Yes I know this wasn't the only reason we lost the match...jeez

I think we need to be 1 of 2 dominant teams this year or next year to win the flag. Quote me on this I don't actually rate Hawthorn this year, I didn't really rate them last year either (Yes they towelled us up but that was due to us having no answer to there game style).

It is well quoted that every year for the last 15 seasons a team from outside the top 8 finishes top 4 the following year....(Port or The Scum look to be that team this year) We need to be there. And Geelong are locked in. Bulldogs, StKilda, Port, Scum Hawthorn for the last 2 spots in the top 4? My money isn't on Hawthorn in the top 4. What worries me is that there needs to be 2 sides that step up and take over from Geelong and Hawthorn....Us and The Scum could be it....2011 Collingwood V The Scum GF....I would be nervous as all hell.

Back on topic. I doubt we will win this year. But over the next 3 or 4 we should be in 2 or 3 Grand Finals....at least 1 of those against The Scum.

I am in your camp here in regard to the Hawks.

I must point out that I don;t and have not discounted Collingwood being a dominant force this year.
We will not know if or how dominant until much further into the season, just as we won't know how Geelong or Hawthorn are traveling either.
Hawthorn has some injury worries already.

 

[well left]

The second way is to look at where we are deficient against top sides.

1/ A good ruck duo
2/ two speedy, strong bodied and experienced mids
3/ one more key forward ( if Rocca stands up, then OK)
4/ two mature experienced key backs ( one if presti can last the season )
5/ a better game plan.

I'm going to defend Fu here as well. Not that he needs anyones help at all

Game plan has been discussed to death so I will stick to the first 4.

The other posters who think we can win the premiership are right (but yes I am agreeing with Fu). I think we can win the premiership this year but it requires the following:

1/ Wood to improve and step up as an AFL ruckman or Chris Bryan to defy his form over the last 4 years and do the same.
2/ We really need two of Stanley, Cook, Wellingham, Sidebottom or Beams to step up or Cox or Toovey to step up to allow Clarke to play more midfield.
3/ JA will provide a target with Cloke but we need one of Rocca, Reid or Rusling to stand up also. Of them only Rocca is a known performer and that is now in doubt as he has not played consistently for a while now. Rusling, for all his potential, has not even played 20 games and can not be relied upon at this stage.
4/ We have only seen one good year from Nathan Brown. That's all it was as well - good not exceptional but that is OK for one so young. If he continues to develop as expected then we should be OK. If he doesn't (and it's been known to happen) then we are relying on undersized defenders like Maxwell, O'Brien and Goldsack.

In summary I think we have the players on our list that can fill the positions and deliver us the premiership we all so badly want but there is significant doubts on all of the positions above and Fu Manchu is right to highlight them and not blindly believe that it is definitely going to happen.